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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated

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fantomena

Member
CcpNCGnUUAA0qLZ.jpg

Ive watched so many Trump speeches that Im starting to talk like him in many types of debates and discussion. I just think he is hilarious and fun when he talks that way. It's scary.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
The power of Voter ID laws and Democrats not showing up to midterm elections.



Currently the RNC requires a nominee to win the majority of delegates in 8 states, which means Rubio and Kasich might not even meet minimum requirements.
They can change this rule midstream. And obviously the rule would not apply if they pick someone totally new.
 

Gruco

Banned
So who's seen as being the easiest to beat in November with Hillary as the nominee?
Cruz is the candidate the democrats want. Trump isn't that far behind I guess but he's such an unpredictable wild card that it makes him less desirable to campaign against.

I heard an interesting article on NPR this morning, where minister and Trump fan James Linzey was interviewed about why evangelicals are supporting Trump considering that, you know, he's practically the walking embodiment of the seven deadly sins.
Takeaway from the Trump campaign. People are still animals. At the end of the day our hard wired responses to alpha displays of power and loyalty to the tribe outweigh all the other window dressing. Or, at least can, in the right circumstances.

I'm impressed at how many delegates he got over her in caucus states. Should ban those, debbie.

Minnesota is probably moving to a primary after this. The Governor commented that he thought HRC could have won if it were. I don't know how true that is, but it's good to see the party moving into more democratic processes. Can't let Bernie keep standing in the way of the people.

Little Marco is going to win Puerto Rico on Sunday though :(

I CANT BELIEVE THERE IS ANOTHERRRRR DEBATE

15 million people watched the last train wreck. It's not about to simmer down. Keep putting your shit on public display Reince, I'm sure it will pay off in November.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
The Mississippi House went from 67 Democrats and 55 Republicans in 2011 to 74 Republicans and 48 Democrats this year. Ouch.

A friend of mine is doing his dissertation on the rapid acceleration of partisan sorting in the South over the last 10 years. This story is repeated in virtually every state, and not just at the election level--also at the candidate recruitment and local resources level. Democrats had hundred year old political machines at the county level that have rapidly been surpassed over the last few years. To some extent, the sorting was a process that was occurring anyway (witness all these same states voting Republican at the Presidential level back to the Nixon era even as they retained conservative Democrats at the lower level--it's just taken time for people to resolve their own partisan incoherence). But there's evidence to suggest that Obama's election sped this up, mostly on the dimension of racial resentment.

Unfortunately no one cares about state legislatures so this is not a process that's been studied very well either in terms of qualitative field-work or quantitative statistical analyses.
 

Slayven

Member
Remember Maine is the place they elected the guy that went on a rant on black men impregnating white women in between heroin deals.
 

sangreal

Member
Currently the RNC requires a nominee to win the majority of delegates in 8 states, which means Rubio and Kasich might not even meet minimum requirements.

Those are 2012 rules though. They will be re-written the week before the convention and then the delegates will ratify the new rules for the 2016 convention. That's how the 8 state number came to be in the first place -- they changed it from 5 to 8 at the start of the convention to deny ron paul

e: oh someone else already pointed this out
 

benjipwns

Banned
A friend of mine is doing his dissertation on the rapid acceleration of partisan sorting in the South over the last 10 years. This story is repeated in virtually every state, and not just at the election level--also at the candidate recruitment and local resources level. Democrats had hundred year old political machines at the county level that have rapidly been surpassed over the last few years. To some extent, the sorting was a process that was occurring anyway (witness all these same states voting Republican at the Presidential level back to the Nixon era even as they retained conservative Democrats at the lower level--it's just taken time for people to resolve their own partisan incoherence). But there's evidence to suggest that Obama's election sped this up, mostly on the dimension of racial resentment.

Unfortunately no one cares about state legislatures so this is not a process that's been studied very well either in terms of qualitative field-work or quantitative statistical analyses.
About seven years ago I tried to do a paper regarding predicting county level results based on demographic changes and collecting the data past basically the Presidential level was insufferable.

A lot of state level data, especially legislatures, is something you have to physically go get for many states. Going backwards that is. Recent elections were fine, but that doesn't help with 60 year trend models.
 
Define "long time."

The Governor has been a Republican for 24 of the last 28 years. The State Senate has been Republican for eight of the last eleven years. The State House has been Republican for the last four years.
Benji, if you could read the part of my post that talks about unemployment in mississippi it would reasonably follow that the time frame we're talking about is five or ten years here.
So, would you care to provide an opinion about who is to blame for the lack of employment, or what should be done about it? or were you just unable to pass on the opportunity to flaunt your historical knowledge at someone
 

CDX

Member
Wait a minute. Nebraska allows absentee ballots for the caucus. So either spend hours of your Saturday standing around at a caucus, or just mail in a ballot and be done with it.

I'm hearing Hillary had a surprisingly strong showing of absentee ballots.

I'd find it hilarious if absentee ballots had any significant effect on the results.
 

Holmes

Member
Wait a minute. Nebraska allows absentee ballots for the caucus. So either spend hours of your Saturday standing around at a caucus, or just mail in a ballot and be done with it.

I'm hearing Hillary had a surprisingly strong showing of absentee ballots.

I'd find it hilarious if absentee ballots had any significant effect on the results.
It's looking like Clinton won absentee voting decisively and Sanders is winning caucus day voting. Sanders will win though.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Wait a minute. Nebraska allows absentee ballots for the caucus. So either spend hours of your Saturday standing around at a caucus, or just mail in a ballot and be done with it.

I'm hearing Hillary had a surprisingly strong showing of absentee ballots.

I'd find it hilarious if absentee ballots had any significant effect on the results.

her team was smart if that was the case. She's not going to beat Bernie in caucuses so why not bank those votes for those that don't want to deal with that.
 
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