I know people say Cruz is probably an even easier win for the Dems in November, but I find him infinitely more loathsome and scary than Trump even, which is REALLY saying something. A Trump nom will result in me being like "Hill got this" while chuckling at his nonsense, a Cruz nom will result in me like "Hill's got this right?? RIGHT??" While melting down all year long.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated
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Elaugaufein
Member
But why ? Surely Clinton's got better organization for Caucusing than Bernie. You'd expect the longer time commitments to benefit Clinton's demographic advantages too.
shinra-bansho
Member
Caucuses are predominantly in small pale states.
User 463088
Banned
Hillary has always, for better or worse, had caucus problems. This time, though, her campaign at least is smart enough to stay competitive for delegate allocation if nothing else.
eBay Huckster
Member
Either one's gonna have me laughing all the way to the bank
in my head
because I didn't get in on this goddamn predictit thing early
because I didn't get in on this goddamn predictit thing early
User 463088
Banned
Caucuses are in smaller states that have a larger than normal (for a Democratic electorate) concentration of white people.
when they are not committing crimes against the state that is.
eBay Huckster
Member
Two guesses what the exceptions are for this, and the first doesn't count
Elaugaufein
Member
The modifications really don't help the cloak of democracy the parties want to drape these things in though.
On one hand, organization and ground game helps in caucuses (as we saw when it came to absentee ballots in Nebraska) but at the end of the day, caucuses have historically favored the more activist/radical (for lack of better word) candidates. Ron Paul, Ted Cruz, Barack Obama, Bernie Sanders...
Macho Madness
Member
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Can't believe that Brownback's endorsement only got Rubio to 14%.
Macho Madness
Member
Brownback is quite unpopular even with Republicans. It was like McCain getting Bush's endorsement in '08.
Roland_Gunner
Member
Jon Favreau said:
ICE COLD
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Sarcasm.
Rubio will probably get like 12% in Louisiana after Bobby's endorsement.
Maine after 27%
Cruz: 44%
Trump: 34%
Kasich: 11%
Rubio: 10%
Ding dong, Rubio's dead.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
Rubio was endorsed by every major Kansas republican, from Dole to Brownback. Didn't matter.
User 463088
Banned
Ya'll, I think I'm in the Cruz taking this shit camp. He's just so much easier to beat. He won't get the apathetic remotely interested. I doubt the VERY small minority of "If not Bernie, then Trump" people would bother to care bout Cruz. He's not going to have a snow balls chance in hell in winning any new blue collar voters. He's easy to pin down.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
The only problem with Rubio is that Republican voters think he would be a bad president who would not follow their ideals.
Rubio is a neocon in an era that is pro-dictators, Latino in an era of white nationalism, ridiculously anti-gay in an era where Republicans don't care, basically indistinguishable from the last failed Republican president except for being Latino and more hardcore.
Elaugaufein
Member
You could probably get a chunk of the
Bernie?Vote(Bernie):Vote(Trump) to turn out to vote against Cruz. Cruz is like the anti-populist.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
I wish I knew what areas of Maine have been reported. Trump could still pull off a victory if the more rural areas haven't been counted yet. That's where the governor Paul LePage, who endorsed Trump, won the strongest in 2014.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
But you can send in your taxes on a postcard after they abolish the IRS and replace the current tax code with a simple flat tax that just so happens to fuck over everyone other than the top 1%.
Basileus777
Member
The guy is wildly overreacting considering we don't even have returns for Kentucky and LA yet.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Hmm, W was the most Socialist president of the United States since Nixon (maybe more than even Nixon or LBJ?), but Rubio would probably nationalize major firms and do helicopter money too if his supporters urged him too.
Elaugaufein
Member
Trump's suffering from the heightened expectations that being presumed frontrunner gets you. Any loss hurts him more now even less decisive wins.
Elaugaufein
Member
Its always been an illusion though, he lost the first state. But anyone that thinks the illusion of power isn't power is a moron.
The uneducated whites in the panhandle will carry us.
Translation:
Oh please oh please oh please. I don't want to eat all the crow.
Basileus777
Member
Nate Silver's whole schtick is that he's supposed to be above this sort of analysis.
User 463088
Banned
Back of the envelope math here:
If Bernie gets 70% of the vote in each caucus state, he can, at best assuming 30% of the vote in LA, net a total of 5 delegates.
His strategy is bad, and his campaign should feel bad Big caucus wins only help if you keep it close in big primary states.
If Bernie gets 70% of the vote in each caucus state, he can, at best assuming 30% of the vote in LA, net a total of 5 delegates.
His strategy is bad, and his campaign should feel bad Big caucus wins only help if you keep it close in big primary states.
Elaugaufein
Member
Cruz wins republican primary, Trump goes independent, Clinton wins the presidency!
That might be the worst possibly recipe for down ticket though , Cruz would get the True Conservatives out, Trump would get the Trumpsters and the Establishment types could justify one or the other. You'd have to hope Trump tells his peeps to vote not-R downticket (Libertarian ? Trump party ? Indep ? Skip? He couldn't get them to vote Dem).
Cue Varys speech.
Bernie is bad and he should feel bad. He should drop out of the race, become independent, endorse Trump just for me to watch hell explode in america while Im outside drinking some stuff and watching america burn.
I think it's more than outside of Nevada, he's been doing extremely poorly in caucuses that require some level of organization.
Coriolanus
Banned
Just consider that he's been salty ever since he had to admit that Don was, in fact, A Real Contender and his comments make more sense. See:
A-yurp.
He's long since ditched that approach.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Yeah, but he was somewhat close in other caucuses.
Yellowtail
Member
Cruz wins republican primary, Trump goes independent, Clinton wins the presidency!
User 463088
Banned
Please print. I mean read what I said.
I said Bernie's strategy is bad. I blame Devine. He knows this shit doesn't work like this.
Basileus777
Member
What does the debate have to do with anything?
Don't agree. He really underperformed in Iowa and got blown out in Minnesota. It was just Nevada where he did well.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
He got crushed with visual staistics. That sways voters.
I just watched him on MSNBC talking about strategy (always on tv, I mean come on dude) and he had the look of a man who does not believe the words that are coming out of his mouth.
Of course it's bad.
What I would really want is that Obama could run a 3rd term against Hillary and to crush her again. I would both feel sad for Hillary and laugh hard.
This is how I am when Im sleepy and tried. Im very careless, don't give a shit, just write and say stuff. Which makes me afraid of what I will do when Im drunk.
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