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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated

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G

Gruco

Banned
If Cruz beats Trump in LA, that's I think a pretty clear sign recent events hurt him.

Actually, it even being this close says that.

Trump v Cruz for the next 4 months.

(letthemfight)
 
B

BoboBrazil

Member
OrangeGrayBlue said:
I'm happy to support Bernie just to push a more leftist message to the general public. If he ultimately doesn't win, so be it. The GOP is going down in flames, at least nationally, so this is the perfect time to let an old socialist preach his message for a little while.
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Yeah, it is good that his message gets out. I'd actually support Bernie if I thought he had a chance of winning in the general as his policies on immigration, healthcare, marijuana, and college tuition are all great. This election is too important to lose though.
 
E

Effect

Member
Basileus777 said:
I don't think Cruz will win the state, but it does look like Trump has been hurt.
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It's looking like it's going to be damn close and closer then it should be. All the more reason for the GOP and Cruz to increase their attacks on Trump and make honest plays for the take all primaries as best they could. If he's weak then he can be beaten and they should go for it.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
People need to stop with the "debates don't matter" line. It is absolutely clear Trump was hurt.
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
Gruco said:
I'd conjecture that strong memories of 2004 is one of the most salient distinctions between Bernie and Hillary supporters.
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Hillary supporters have strong memories of 1984 (even some of them that weren't born at the time. Some kind of genetic memory maybe ? )
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Spillover is definitely happening in Louisiana with most parishes bordering Texas going to Cruz. Down to 5 point spreads in Louisiana and Kentucky.
 
D

danm999

Member
I'm convinced its death by a thousand cuts that's hurting Trump. There probably won't be a 47% tape.

Incidentally that seems to be the strategy the Dems are going to use on him so I'm pretty optimistic.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
BoboBrazil said:
Eh, I think it was the kkk thing that hurt him more than anything.
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Jarmel said:
It's pretty much impossible to attribute any sole event to Trump underperforming.
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Maybe, but like I said earlier, this is the first time any viewers were shown how badly Trump was lying with visuals. That stuff actually matters. It is hard to deflect that.
 
J

Jarmel

Banned
Plinko said:
Maybe, but like I said earlier, this is the first time any viewers were shown how badly Trump was lying with visuals. That stuff actually matters. It is hard to deflect that.
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Unless there are exit polls specifying why Trump voters are changing their minds, you're attributing correlation with causation.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Jarmel said:
Unless there are exit polls specifying why Trump voters are changing their minds, you're attributing correlation with causation.
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I didn't say the debate was the only thing that hurt him.
 
M

Makai

Member
Cerium said:
I decided to play the PredictIt markets safe and put all of my available cash into Drumpf in Maine at around 80 cents. I consider that one a sure thing, and going in hot will bring at least some profit rather than leaving money on the table.

I spent a lot of time in Maine in my childhood. That is Drumpf country through and through. It's like if you took the Northeast and the Deep South and threw it into a blender; those two regions happen to be Drumpf's strongest areas.
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WRECKEDDDDDDDDDDDDDD
 
T

Tom_Cody

Member
Plinko said:
Maybe, but like I said earlier, this is the first time any viewers were shown how badly Trump was lying with visuals. That stuff actually matters. It is hard to deflect that.
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And I think it matters that the debate got monster ratings. This was like the 12th one and people are still super engaged.
 
M

Makai

Member
Trump really hurt himself in that debate. Obviously the people of Maine like small dicked presidents. Cruz was the obvious choice.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Jarmel said:
Unless there are exit polls specifying why Trump voters are changing their minds, you're attributing correlation with causation.
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There's also the question is how much of this is Trump underperforming and how much of it is anti-Trump vote consolidating under Cruz. He's still at 42% in LA, is Cruz close because Rubio is dying?
 
J

Jarmel

Banned
Basileus777 said:
There's also the question is how much of this is Trump underperforming and how much of it is anti-Trump vote consolidating under Cruz. He's still at 42% in LA, is Cruz close because Rubio is dying?
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Pretty much. It's just impossible to really analyze this without a ton of interviews or exit polls.
 
G

GnawtyDog

Banned
Basileus777 said:
There's also the question is how much of this is Trump underperforming and how much of it is anti-Trump vote consolidating under Cruz. He's still at 42% in LA, is Cruz close because Rubio is dying?
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Hard to say. Kasich is rather gainning in some of these states splitting almost evenly with Rubio.

This is indeed probably some debate backlash. Cruz was hardly damaged in the debate and didn't engage in the theatrics and insults - him and Kasich won that debate for their respective base (conservative fringe, moderate base respectively). Add to that the platform Ted runs from (purity and principled) --- clearly taking some Trump votes.
 
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