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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated

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H

HylianTom

Banned
Yellowtail said:
Damn, these crosstab numbers are so toxic:

Is Trump honest and trustworthy?
Yes 27, No 69

Does Trump understand the problems of people like you?
Yes 26, No 72

Do you think Trump has the right kind of experience to be President?
Yes 26, No 73

Do you think Trump has the right temperament to be President?
Yes 25, No 72

Also:

Would you like the next president to be someone who has experience in how the political system works, or someone from outside the existing political establishment?
Experienced in political system: 62, Anti-establishment 34
Click to expand...
It really is a delicious poll, to the point where I'm a bit skeptical. The phrase "too good to be true" comes to mind.

With numbers like those, November would bring about the GOPacalpyse:
SCOTUS, Senate, House, with their long-time arch-enemy in the White House.
 
The Lamonster

The Lamonster

Member
XenodudeX said:
Asking questions you already know the answer to is dumb
Click to expand...

I need reassurances! Listening to NPR this morning has me shook.

And it's true - he's the only adult on the GOP field right now. He's 'likable enough' but his policies are terribad. I feel like he could win an election on likability alone, GWB-style.
 
J

jaekeem

Member
it's gonna be trump in the general or a brokered convention (which guarantees a republican civil war and a democratic potus)
 
G

Gruco

Banned
The Lamonster said:
PoliGAF please tell me Kasich has no path to the nomination....

He's the only one who I feel could actually beat Hillary.
Click to expand...

1) Kasich has strong showing in MI
2) Kasich wins Ohio
3) Rubio loses Florida, drops out.
4) Kasich and Cruz tag team Trump, taking enough states between them to prevent a Trump majority.
5) 200 ballots pass at the convention. Trump and Cruz can't win, too unlikable. Romney or Ryan can't win, too hated by the Trump and Cruz supporters
6) President Kasich
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
The Lamonster said:
PoliGAF please tell me Kasich has no path to the nomination....

He's the only one who I feel could actually beat Hillary.
Click to expand...

He has a path to the nomination, but the path includes a contested convention that royally screws Cruz and Trump, causing the party to implode and give Hillary the easy win anyhow.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
The Lamonster said:
I need reassurances! Listening to NPR this morning has me shook.

And it's true - he's the only adult on the GOP field right now. He's 'likable enough' but his policies are terribad.
Click to expand...

He has no path to getting the requisite number of delegates prior to the convention. I also can't imagine the GOP throwing the nomination to him when he'll very likely go in (at best) in 3rd place among delegates. If he gets the nomination it's only through a brokered convention and I don't think that would happen. I doubt he'd be their choice, even though he would be the best choice.
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
The Lamonster said:
PoliGAF please tell me Kasich has no path to the nomination....

He's the only one who I feel could actually beat Hillary.
Click to expand...
He does have a path. He can be nominated at the convention if Trump falls short of the needed delegate count

However, his nomination in that scenario would not be legitimate to republican voters. So the only way forward for Kasich is one that would invoke likely a civil war amongst the GOP ranks.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
The Lamonster said:
I need reassurances! Listening to NPR this morning has me shook.

And it's true - he's the only adult on the GOP field right now. He's 'likable enough' but his policies are terribad. I feel like he could win an election on likability alone, GWB-style.
Click to expand...
The only way he gets the nomination will be at a brokered convention.

WHICH THE PARTY BASE WILL BE VERY HAPPY ABOUT
 
K

Kusagari

Member
If this was a normal election then yes Kasich could beat Hillary.

But the only way he can possibly get the nomination is to fuck over Trump, which will lead to Big Don going scorched earth on the GOP.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
adam387 said:
The one weird thing about the Bay News 9 sponsored poll was that they grouped Hispanic voters in with "Asian" from what I could tell. That's kinda....I mean in Florida? Not sure about that. Interested to see what Monmouth's numbers show.

But, Florida, like Michigan, Illinois, and Ohio are all in the south....so they don't count.
Click to expand...

Hispanics are grouped under white for whatever reason. You can tell because in '12 they were a combined 84% of the vote and this poll puts them at 82%, but we have no idea how that breaks out between white and Hispanic, so its of very little use.
 
C

CCS

Banned
Seen on Twitter:

Don Nichols ‏@TheDairylandDon Mar 7

"I'll vote for Donald Trump if Bernie doesn't get the nomination."
=
"My marriage proposal was rejected, so I'm gonna fuck that wood chipper."
Click to expand...
 
G

Gruco

Banned
The Lamonster said:
So why doesn't Kasich drop out and quit burning through money? Does he just want to have an Ohio win on his record for the history books?
Click to expand...

Well, his path, such as it is, is a longshot, but it's not literally zero.

Beyond that, he might be campaigning for VP, or "next in line."
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Slayven said:
How did Obama lose white women in '12? Did the Binder talk work?
Click to expand...

Its hard to know for sure, but some combination of whites not wanting to vote for a young black man and them blaming Obama for the terrible economy in 2012. Obama getting re-elected with nearly 8% unemployment is a testament to his skill and Romney's poor campaign. Although Republicans would probably crawl to Salt Lake City to get him back now.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
Yellowtail said:
Damn, these crosstab numbers are so toxic:

Is Trump honest and trustworthy?
Yes 27, No 69

Does Trump understand the problems of people like you?
Yes 26, No 72

Do you think Trump has the right kind of experience to be President?
Yes 26, No 73

Do you think Trump has the right temperament to be President?
Yes 25, No 72

Also:

Would you like the next president to be someone who has experience in how the political system works, or someone from outside the existing political establishment?
Experienced in political system: 62, Anti-establishment 34
Click to expand...

I'm a lot less concerned lately about there even being a slim wild-card chance of Trumpmentum in the general, and think he really is the worst/best candidate. That said, I'm just so fucking sick of seeing his fat orange face that I might still prefer a marginally-less-catastrophic nominee just to not have to hear him (as much).
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Bowdz said:
Trump's gonna lose Michigan to the fruit ninja and Mississippi to the booger eater isn't he? The dream is finally collapsing :(
Click to expand...

Again, I will be stunned if Trump loses Michigan. That electorate is prime Trump voters.
 
B

Blader

Member
I didn't watch the town hall last night, but I'm a little confused on something re: Hillary, Bernie, and the auto bailout.

In the Sunday night debate, Hillary said Bernie voted against the auto bailout and Bernie said he did it because it was part of the Wall Street bailout, which he opposed. But then apparently last night, Bernie said he DID vote for the auto bailout as a separate piece of legislation and what he voted against was just the Wall Street bailout, which was its own thing though it did contain money for the auto industry?

So was Hillary right the first time? Or was she misleading and Bernie just forgot on Sunday what he actually did/didn't vote for?
 
D

Diablos

Member
It really seems like it could be Kasich. The GOP I think is going to do everything they can to stop Trump, even if he has secured enough delegates when it's all said and done. Rubio is a joke, Cruz is EXTREMELY polarizing. The only logical choice is Kasich, and if the party is going to fuck everyone over anyway, might as well make the best choice for going up against Hillary in the GE.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Blader said:
I didn't watch the town hall last night, but I'm a little confused on something re: Hillary, Bernie, and the auto bailout.

In the Sunday night debate, Hillary said Bernie voted against the auto bailout and Bernie said he did it because it was part of the Wall Street bailout, which he opposed. But then apparently last night, Bernie said he DID vote for the auto bailout as a separate piece of legislation and what he voted against was just the Wall Street bailout, which was its own thing though it did contain money for the auto industry?

So was Hillary right the first time? Or was she misleading and Bernie just forgot on Sunday what he actually did/didn't vote for?
Click to expand...
She was misleading. Bernie voted for the auto bailout the first time. He voted against a disbursement of funds in early 2009 that was for Wall Street and the auto bailout.
 
B

Blader

Member
Diablos said:
It really seems like it could be Kasich. The GOP I think is going to do everything they can to stop Trump, even if he has secured enough delegates when it's all said and done. Rubio is a joke, Cruz is EXTREMELY polarizing. The only logical choice is Kasich, and if the party is going to fuck everyone over anyway, might as well make the best choice for going up against Hillary in the GE.
Click to expand...

Even if Kasich wins Ohio and Michigan, he is going to end up with the fewest amount of delegates between himself, Trump and Cruz. And there's no way the candidate with the least amount of candidates gets nominated at the convention without Trump/Cruz supporters crying foul. Hell, if Trump goes into a convention with the most delegates (but short of a majority) and the party gives the nom to Kasich or Cruz, I totally expect for him to blast the party as rejecting the voters and running a third-party bid.

Macho Madness said:
She was misleading. Bernie voted for the auto bailout the first time. He voted against a disbursement of funds in early 2009 that was for Wall Street and the auto bailout.
Click to expand...

So then he just forgot what he voted for then? Weird.
 
S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
Y2Kev said:
I think it's self declared or self identified. What is a "strong republican" otherwise?
Click to expand...
One that can lift up 20 urban youths by their bootstraps at once (but doesn't because that would deprive them the dignity of doing it for themselves).
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
Slayven said:
How did Obama lose white women in '12? Did the Binder talk work?
Click to expand...

Economic problems and foreign policy, among other things. But at the same time I think the discussion of the white female vote tends to be skewed a bit. Younger white women tend to be more liberal. Traditionally democrats lose the white female vote due to baby boomer and especially elderly white women voting conservative in large numbers. That's a demographic problem for republicans, not democrats IMO. Those elderly voters won't be around for much longer.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Diablos said:
It really seems like it could be Kasich. The GOP I think is going to do everything they can to stop Trump, even if he has secured enough delegates when it's all said and done. Rubio is a joke, Cruz is EXTREMELY polarizing. The only logical choice is Kasich, and if the party is going to fuck everyone over anyway, might as well make the best choice for going up against Hillary in the GE.
Click to expand...

I really think they coalesce behind Cruz, which I think would be a terrible move for the general election.
 
S

sangreal

Member
Key789 said:
Is there a margin Hillary can win by today to make it mathematically impossible for Bernie to get the nomination.
Click to expand...

No, it's not mathematically impossible until she crosses the magic number. In fantasy land she can get 0% the rest of the way while he gets 100%. It is already mathematically infeasible though
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Key789 said:
Is there a margin Hillary can win by today to make it mathematically impossible for Bernie to get the nomination.
Click to expand...

today? no. next week? absolutely. Hit magic number? not till probably April or May but it would be mathematically impossible for Bernie to catch up.
 
The Lamonster

The Lamonster

Member
Joe Shlabotnik said:
I'm a lot less concerned lately about there even being a slim wild-card chance of Trumpmentum in the general, and think he really is the worst/best candidate. That said, I'm just so fucking sick of seeing his fat orange face that I might still prefer a marginally-less-catastrophic nominee just to not have to hear him (as much).
Click to expand...
Exactly how I feel.
 
T

TheCrow

Member
RustyNails said:
If you're in the 8th district, please vote for Mike Noland. He's running for Tammy "The Duck" Duckworth's seat. If not, spread the word around! I'll be voting for him.
Click to expand...

I think I'm in the 9th district but I'll make sure to double check. Either way, I'll tell people about him.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Key789 said:
Is there a margin Hillary can win by today to make it mathematically impossible for Bernie to get the nomination.
Click to expand...

That's the Catch 22. No. She's going to have a very large margin of victory in Mississippi and probably a comfortable margin in Michigan.

Bernie is not officially mathematically eliminated (although realistically he is already) until June. Until then, he can keep saying "We still have a chance to win!" and keep going. The problem is that what's realistic doesn't seem to matter to Bernie.
 
K

Key789

Banned
Macho Madness said:
That's the Catch 22. No. She's going to have a very large margin of victory in Mississippi and probably a comfortable margin in Michigan.

Bernie is not officially mathematically eliminated (although realistically he is already) until June. Until then, he can keep saying "We still have a chance to win!" and keep going. The problem is that what's realistic and what's going to happen don't seem to matter to Bernie.
Click to expand...



I can understand staying to have a say at the covention/raising important issues, but will Bernie get to the point where do stops asking for money? I think Bernie has been in politics long enough to read the writing on the wall.
 
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