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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated

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Effect

Member
People keep saying Trump is the one Dems need to run against and that Cruz is worse. Yes I agree Cruz is worse, they're both scum and worse, but Trump has that random factor that is just beyond terrifying. With Cruz he's easy to paint and show how extreme, bigoted, and crazy he is. He's not going to try to turn that off or pretend otherwise. You know what you're dealing with from start to finish most likely. Trump isn't going to be like that. He will continue to be racist, insulting, etc and then will turn around and play the reporters and those asking him questions. The media will continue to give him free time. He'll still grab those people that feel he's being "real" with them and that's far to risky when in a lot of places around the country. The randomness needs to be removed from equation.

I can understand the desire to want to see Trump removed form the situation as best and as soon as possible and how he is scaring the hell out of people.
 

PBY

Banned
People keep saying Trump is the one Dems need to run against and that Cruz is worse. Yes I agree Cruz is worse, their both scum and worse, but Trump has that random factor that is just beyond terrifying. With Cruz he's easy to paint and show how extreme, bigoted, and crazy he is. He's not going to try to turn that off or pretend otherwise. You know what you're dealing with from start to finish most likely. Trump isn't going to be like that. He will continue to be racist, insulting, etc and then will turn around and play the reporters and those asking him questions. The media will continue to give him free time. He'll still grab those people that feel he's being "real" with them and that's far to risky when in a lot of places around the country. The randomness needs to be removed equation.

I can understand the desire to want to see Trump removed form the situation as best and as soon as possible and how he is scaring the hell out of people.

What is this random factor? That's what my gf says and it drives me crazy. Trump is just a candidate, he's unpredictable, but he's not fucking magic.
 

Captain Pants

Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
Hillary is winning with a hyper-local strategy.
The crisis in Flint had been going on for some time before the former secretary of state sent emissaries to visit, secured the endorsement of the city’s mayor and then insisted on having a debate in the city, 70 miles northwest of Detroit.

It is part of a pattern for Clinton. She’s approached every primary more like it was a Senate race than a presidential election by identifying a local issue that would play to her advantage and then championing it.

Clinton is also overwhelmingly favored to win today’s Democratic primary in Mississippi, where she’s been speaking extensively about the levels of lead in Jackson’s water. The city is predominantly African American, and Jackson’s mayor cited her attentiveness to the issue as the reason he chose to endorse her.

It’s not just infrastructure. Clinton has campaigned against voter ID laws in Alabama and Missouri, a religious freedom bill in Arkansas, as well as right to work legislation in Illinois, Missouri and West Virginia. She supported a settlement that New Orleans's Democratic mayor negotiated with FEMA and lauded a student loan refinancing program unveiled by Minnesota's Democratic governor.

The former first lady has also, in recent weeks, decried state-level efforts to limit access to abortion or defund Planned Parenthood in Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Texas and Oklahoma.
-- Sanders, though he was mayor of Burlington, Vt., in the 1980s, does not engage on local policy to anywhere near the degree that Clinton does. He’s calling for a national political revolution, not incremental public policy changes. The senator also has a tiny press staff compared to the Clinton juggernaut, which teems with regional press staffers who have the bandwidth to focus on placing local stories.
Who would have guessed that paying attention to your voters and not being a one note candidate would pay off? It really does seem like she's running a much smarter campaign than she did in 2008.
 
People keep saying Trump is the one Dems need to run against and that Cruz is worse. Yes I agree Cruz is worse, their both scum and worse, but Trump has that random factor that is just beyond terrifying. With Cruz he's easy to paint and show how extreme, bigoted, and crazy he is. He's not going to try to turn that off or pretend otherwise. You know what you're dealing with from start to finish most likely. Trump isn't going to be like that. He will continue to be racist, insulting, etc and then will turn around and play the reporters and those asking him questions. The media will continue to give him free time. He'll still grab those people that feel he's being "real" with them and that's far to risky when in a lot of places around the country. The randomness needs to be removed equation.

I can understand the desire to want to see Trump removed form the situation as best and as soon as possible and how he is scaring the hell out of people.
If people were voting for Cruz as the anti-Trump that would be one thing.

Kasich? literally idiots
 

Effect

Member
If people were voting for Cruz as the anti-Trump that would be one thing.

Kasich? literally idiots

On this front yeah it's stupid. If you're going to do this type of thing (and it rarely works too unless something is super close) then you vote for the person in second or is close to Trump in the poll to get their numbers up. Going for the third or fourth person is stupid.
 
I would be fine with either Cruz or trump but I'm worried they will fuck this up somehow and the GOP will look for an opening to nominate Kasich.
 
On this front yeah it's stupid. If you're going to do this type of thing (and it rarely works too unless something is super close) then you vote for the person in second or is close to Trump in the poll to get their numbers up. Going for the third or fourth person is stupid.
It's not just that, Kasich is easily the strongest candidate for the Republicans, why would you vote for him.
 

Kusagari

Member
I feel like the Castro hype is only because he's one of the few young figures in the party somewhat known nationally.

I've never been impressed with him honestly.
 
I take this as a pretty good indicator that Cruz is winning Idaho:

YMFndTd.png
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Hillary is winning with a hyper-local strategy.


Who would have guessed that paying attention to your voters and note being a one note candidate would pay off? It really does seem like she's running a much smarter campaign than she did in 2008.

Her team learned a lesson last time that she's not the best when it comes to big rallies, so they decided to go hyper-local after 2008. As a result Hillary not only gets to operate in her best format, small groups where she can have a conversation, but it also does make people who go to these events feel like she's paying close attention and gets it.

You saw this pay huge dividends in South Carolina. Instead of doing one big rally in a town, they did a series of smaller events, some of which involved surrogates, instead. So while from afar she doesn't seem nearly as invested as Sanders, who holds these huge rallies, in the state she seems far more in-tune with the issues.
 
You guys are wrong about Cruz. He knows all the dirty tricks in politics and has no shame using them when caught. He is far more dangerous than Trump.

Anyone voting against Trump in the primary because they are worried about him in the general is being a complete and total moron.
 
You guys are wrong about Cruz. He knows all the dirty tricks in politics and has no shame using them when caught. He is far more dangerous than Trump.

Anyone voting against Trump in the primary because they are worried about him in the general is being a complete and total moron.

Dude, a guy that wants a 19% federal sales tax to pay for tax cuts for the rich isn't winning shit.

Especially after Hillary starts showing videos of Cruz's dad talking about prophecy.
 

Kusagari

Member
Yes, Cruz is one of the smartest and slimiest politicians around.

But it means nothing because none of that changes the fact that he's one of the most disliked figures in recent political history.. He has absolutely no chance at getting the swing voters he needs in a general election to vote for him.
 
Yes, Cruz is one of the smartest and slimiest politicians around.

But it means nothing because none of that changes the fact that he's one of the most disliked figures in recent political history.. He has absolutely no chance at getting the swing voters he needs in a general election to vote for him.

Disliked, and unlikable. The better someone knows Ted Cruz the more they hate him, as a rule, and I see no reason to think that'd change with the general public.
 

Farmboy

Member
I too think Cruz is completely unelectable. But probably not moreso than Trump.

Wes Clarke was Hillary's most likely vp pick in 2008, I think. But back then his (and her) age and "moderateness" weren't factors. Not much balancing of the ticket was required.

I do like Dean though, even if he isn't particularly young either.
 

Krowley

Member
It's not just that, Kasich is easily the strongest candidate for the Republicans, why would you vote for him.

I think the idea is that in a worst case, If the dem nominee loses, Kasich would be the least offensive republican. They don't want to let Trump or Cruz even get within sniffing distance of the white house.

The republican nominee, whoever it is, will be one scandal/gaffe away from becoming president, so picking the worst one for tactical reasons could be seen as irresponsible.
 

AndyD

aka andydumi
Honestly that would probably require some major election reform. First past the post and the Electoral College both make it difficult for third parties to be viable.

I don't disagree. But it seems that for the first time in a while we have strong large groups on both sides that may end up being unhappy with the ultimate nominee and there's already seeming discontent with the superdelegate system. So maybe there would be enough will to vote in some basic changes to get us started on a better path.
 
You guys are wrong about Cruz. He knows all the dirty tricks in politics and has no shame using them when caught. He is far more dangerous than Trump.

Anyone voting against Trump in the primary because they are worried about him in the general is being a complete and total moron.
Wouldnt be surprised if Cruz' adviser is zombie Atwater.
 
You guys are wrong about Cruz. He knows all the dirty tricks in politics and has no shame using them when caught. He is far more dangerous than Trump.

Anyone voting against Trump in the primary because they are worried about him in the general is being a complete and total moron.
The biggest concern about Cruz is that he at least appears to be a standard GOP politician. Trump does not. That might benefit him if the world goes to hell in Obama's last few months, but assuming everything more or less stays the course Trump will make for the easiest candidate to beat.
 

PBY

Banned
The biggest concern about Cruz is that he at least appears to be a standard GOP politician. Trump does not. That might benefit him if the world goes to hell in Obama's last few months, but assuming everything more or less stays the course Trump will make for the easiest candidate to beat.

Trump also literally has zero organization. His ground game is shit, his campaign is something out of the 1950s and he doesn't spend money. He's not going have donor money.

Afraid of what exactly?
 

Makai

Member
Maybe instead of the GOP splitting, we'll have a major third party called the Authoritarian Party.
I think if Trump's support is durable, we'll have authoritarians sort into the Republican party and libertarians sort into the Democrat party.

Koch about to be a Dem ally : U
 
Minor gripe with the Democrat primary rules: why are the at-large and PLEOs allocated separately? They're both statewide pledged delegates, it makes no sense to separate them and it occasionally leads to stupid shit like Nevada where they broke 3/2, 4/3 for Hillary while if they were combined it would have been a 6/6 split.
 

NervousXtian

Thought Emoji Movie was good. Take that as you will.
The bolded is something I've never personally understood but think might underlie quite a few of humanity's problems. The people making more then the new minimum are in no way worse off, their pay isn't being lowered. The people making less then the new minimum are going to see an improvement in pay! But some members of both groups are annoyed that others are going to be doing better. As if personal self worth is depended on the ability to look down on others. If you really feel so strongly that "I worked for that difference I should be making X more then minimum" then ask for a raise. Worst that's likely to happen is you're told no and ones position doesn't change.

You are looking at it wrong, imagine you worked at a place for years, worked yourself to become productive (in my line of work production = pay raises). The people just starting or of lower production are getting bumped up to what you worked years to gain. Yes, also there will be some inflation caused by the increased wages, costs will go up, it's a HUGE increase. Not everyone is Wal-Mart or some mega-corp, there are companies that will directly be impacted by such a large increase. Prices will go up, what we charge hopefully will go up, if not now but soon. The increase we are going to see in Oregon is pretty much a 50% increase in min wage over 5 1/2 years.

Since I can't raise prices to equal the huge labor bump, guess who will be fucked.. those people who made more money. They won't see any kind of equivalent bump. It's not that people don't want to see others get money, they want to see what they worked for rewarded. I'm feeling they won't see that, everyone in the middle or above feels it's going to make it harder for them to get further ahead as a consequence of raising up the lowest. The people making the big bucks, they already got them. The mid-level jobs eliminated because of this? Gone. The chances to move up? More limited.

I just think the lower-middle class and middle-class will be the ones who pay for all this.

BTW, People can ask all they want for raises, for the majority of American's that isn't getting you one. You can find a new job easier than asking for a raise and getting it. I do give merit increases, but it's very few in proportion to times I'm asked for an out-of-cycle review raise. The idea people can just ask for money and get it for most people is a ridiculous idea. It's bootstraps level of bs.
 

Makai

Member
Basically, American Authoritarianism is cowardice against racial and social change disguising itself behind blustering tough talk.
The main takeaway from that article is that there is a large group of people in both parties who can become "activated" and rally around a single candidate.
 
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