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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated
- Thread starter Makai
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blackaroni
Member
At least Hillary will get more delegates here than she did in 2008. So is there still a 200 delegate diff after tonight?
Officerrob
Banned
vicissitudes
Banned
MICHIGAN FEELING THE BERN TONIGHT
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Mormons hate Trump so much. Doug Owens should have this in the bag against Mia Love.
I am confused if she is weak what is Bernie?
Black Republican
Member
Big win for bernie considering what the polls said.
benicillin
Banned
Super happy for Bernie 
Overall I don't think it really changes his odds, but there's something to be said for winning a state that places like 538 predicted with 99% certainty that Clinton would win!
Overall I don't think it really changes his odds, but there's something to be said for winning a state that places like 538 predicted with 99% certainty that Clinton would win!Bigger. The crush of Sanders in MS overrides the effective split in MI.
benjipwns
Banned
lol if uncommitted is the difference between bernie and hillary
Hillary already has ten of them.
It's incredible. They were double digits wrong across the board.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Bernie has won every state so far bordering Canada. King in the North!
We know how it turned out for the King in the North.
I'm talking pledged...which I'm not sure if the 147 counts the super delegates.
blackaroni
Member
Lol. Damn socialism is leaking across the border. Time for another wall.
Ah, ok. Thanks. Another day where he loses ground then. Momentum.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
VendettaRed07
Member
Impressive. Bernie is too good to get the hammer dropped on him
You're still not allowed to be happy about this until you have rational policy preferences.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
The Idaho winner gets all of Idaho's 32 delegates if Rubio falls below 20% so this could end up still being a good night for Cruz.
Bernie's map looks similar to both of Snyder's:
That's pretty funny if true
User 463088
Banned
Well done Bernie. It looks like the net gain will be +22 delegates for Hillary.
I think the polling might be off for a couple of reasons, although why it's this far off I have no idea. Perhaps since there hasn't been a competitive Democratic primary in Michigan since 1992? In the long run, this might help. Hillary's people were trying to beat the drum hard that they never thought it would be a double digit lead. I guess their internals were showing something different. With the public polls being so slanted, Hill supporters may have been turned off from going to the polls. Bernie's people, it seems, didn't have that problem.
I think the polling might be off for a couple of reasons, although why it's this far off I have no idea. Perhaps since there hasn't been a competitive Democratic primary in Michigan since 1992? In the long run, this might help. Hillary's people were trying to beat the drum hard that they never thought it would be a double digit lead. I guess their internals were showing something different. With the public polls being so slanted, Hill supporters may have been turned off from going to the polls. Bernie's people, it seems, didn't have that problem.
StopMakingSense
Member
I would LOvE to see the internal polling of this.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Box of Kittens
Banned
538 has been pretty awful this primary season but I think you have to give them a pass on Michigan. Not much you can do if the polls are that far off.
Basileus777
Member
RastaMentality
Banned
This primary is gonna go on forever.
Phanatic8390
Member
This drives me up a wall. We've got one of the most qualified candidates ever and we're messing about with a guy who can't answer a single question without tying it back to one issue?
It's mind boggling. The more I have to hear about Bernie the more I hate him.
Trust me - I know 538s role. They interpret the data they're given
If you've listened to their pods tho it's pure punditry.
Black Republican
Member
Bernie finally cut into the black vote
She should start negotiations with Chris Christie to form the governing coalition of the cell block at Clinton Correctional.
Macho Madness
Member
At this rate, my Twitter will never go back to normal. THE GLOATING RIGHT NOW.
Man, those polls were way off.
Man, those polls were way off.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
People on Twitter lying to me.
Honestly, as I've said, this is Sanders problem and it's that he's making the same mistake Clinton made in 2008. This is not about winning states, it's about margins and delegates. Winning states by 1-2 points does not make up for 20+ point blowouts elsewhere.
This keeps the race alive because #narrative, but he needs to actually be racking up margins. Split decisions only cement Clinton's existing lead. He needs to turn this momentum, which he will get because due to the optics of winning by any margin, into actual margins come next week if he wants any chance at all. Overcoming 200 delegate leads under the Democratic system is fucking hard.
This keeps the race alive because #narrative, but he needs to actually be racking up margins. Split decisions only cement Clinton's existing lead. He needs to turn this momentum, which he will get because due to the optics of winning by any margin, into actual margins come next week if he wants any chance at all. Overcoming 200 delegate leads under the Democratic system is fucking hard.
Basileus777
Member
538 is confused about 538 and its purpose.
I can't believe how wrong the pollsters got it. Wasn't even close. This leads me to believe the generational split between the two candidates is very real and therefore Hillary's polling may at times be greatly oversampled because it's becoming increasingly hard to track the voting preferences of the youth vote.
I am also now quite worried about the rust belt and how it will favor Hillary in a GE. Do not underestimate Trump. This guy seems to be on the brink of spawning a new generation of "Reagan Democrats" or should I say Trump Democrats. That's all everyone was talking about.
I would not be surprised if Bernie wins Ohio and Missouri. Also possibly PA, but we're so late it doesn't really matter.
I am also now quite worried about the rust belt and how it will favor Hillary in a GE. Do not underestimate Trump. This guy seems to be on the brink of spawning a new generation of "Reagan Democrats" or should I say Trump Democrats. That's all everyone was talking about.
I would not be surprised if Bernie wins Ohio and Missouri. Also possibly PA, but we're so late it doesn't really matter.
@NateSilver538 I said this afternoon I had a gut feeling that Sanders could beat his polling in MI. Here's what was behind that. http://53eig.ht/221kabX
This. Listen to their podcasts. I like them, but it's no different than what we do in this thread.
Basileus777
Member
Cruz would have to break 50% to win all of the delegates.
Lots of big, fat messes this cycle.
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