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[Bowdz]

Nate Silver is a mess.

A BIG FAT MESS

 

[B-Dubs]

Bernie finally cut into the black vote

Expecting that 80 point gap to persist through the whole contest would be unrealistic.

 

[benjipwns]

While everyone was watching Hillary somehow blow it, Cruz opened up a pretty good gap from Kasich for 2nd. Especially with so much of the GR area outlying.

 

[The Technomancer]

This drives me up a wall. We've got one of the most qualified candidates ever and we're messing about with a guy who can't answer a single question without tying it back to one issue?

It's mind boggling. The more I have to hear about Bernie the more I hate him.

I don't hate him. But this is ridiculous. I want a democratic socialist to run for president. I also want him to know his shit

 

[Makai]

Nate the Pundit gave Hillary a >99% chance of victory but had a gut feeling Bernie could overperform.

 

[PBY]

While everyone was watching Hillary somehow blow it, Cruz opened up a pretty good gap from Kasich for 2nd. Especially with so much of the GR area outlying.

Feel like this just fucks OH up even more

 

[Aaron Strife]

@NateSilver538 I said this afternoon I had a “gut feeling” that Sanders could beat his polling in MI. Here's what was behind that. http://53eig.ht/221kabX

I've got a gut feeling Bernie's around here somewhere.

After all, isn't there a little Bernie in all of us?

In fact, you could even say that we ate Bernie and he's sitting in our stomachs right now!

Uh, scratch that last one.

 

[BoboBrazil]

The worst thing about all of this is the false sense of hope it gives Bernie supporters.

 

[Maengun1]

Yeah this was crazy. I mean, 20+% off? Biggest upset in 30 years?

I'm finding myself less and less confident about the general election. I still mostly believe that a Sanders nom is essentially handing the election to the Republicans before it even starts, but at the same time if Clinton can't even beat him (or barely beats him) for the nom . . .

538 currently has Clinton with a greater than 90% chance to win every state next Tuesday. Which, as of now, means nothing more than an lol

Imagine the shitstorm if Hillary actually needs the superdelegates in the end.

 

[benjipwns]

Bernie finally cut into the black vote

Michigan requires Picture ID to vote now, I wouldn't let Bernie's racist brigade claim the victory on their own, the GOP helped.

 

[Box of Kittens]

Trust me - I know 538s role. They interpret the data they're given

If you've listened to their pods tho it's pure punditry.

Yes, that's what I mean by 538 being awful this primary season. Nate Silver has turned into a pundit. But still I can't blame them for getting Michigan wrong.

 

[A Human Becoming]

@NateSilver538 I said this afternoon I had a “gut feeling” that Sanders could beat his polling in MI. Here's what was behind that. http://53eig.ht/221kabX

He said because of demographics.

Nate deserves criticism but some people get over the top.

 

[And_Gignac]

@NateSilver538 I said this afternoon I had a “gut feeling” that Sanders could beat his polling in MI. Here's what was behind that. http://53eig.ht/221kabX

B.F.M.

 

[Holmes]

Clinton needs to live in Ohio and Illinois for the next week.

 

[eBay Huckster]

I can't believe how wrong the pollsters got it. Wasn't even close. This leads me to believe the generational split between the two candidates is very real and therefore Hillary's polling may at times be greatly oversampled because it's becoming increasingly hard to track the voting preferences of the youth vote.

or it could be some combination of this and no one knowing how to poll Michigan's Dem primary anymore, considering it hasn't had a contested primary in 24 years

 

[The Lamonster]

The worst thing about all of this is the false sense of hope it gives Bernie supporters.

Yep. This is going to last forever.

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

He said because of demographics.

Nate deserves criticism but some people get over the top.

There is a difference between beating his polling and winning the freaking thing.

 

[FiggyCal]

Did Rubio miss a cutoff in Idaho?

 

[Rubenov]

The most unpredictable election I've seen in my life. And I've followed many.

 

[User 463088]

Clinton needs to live in Ohio and Illinois for the next week.

Ohio more so than Illinois, I think. But, ya.

I still think the lack of a competitive Democratic primary since 1992 is part of the problem. Their models must have all been so far off. Now we have to live with this for another week. Ugh.

 

[Macho Madness]

Maddow predicting huge donation bomb tonight for Bernie.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Congrats to Bernie. But this concern trolling on CNN is lol.

 

[Basileus777]

Did Rubio miss a cutoff in Idaho?

He's under the 20% threshold for now. It would make him 3/3 for missing thresholds on the night.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

Very, very impressive win for Sanders tonight.

Thank god Clinton is going to be running against an unelectable republican.

 

[B-Dubs]

Maddow predicting huge donation bomb tonight for Bernie.

Yep, he's gonna be raking it in after tonight.

 

[Box of Kittens]

@NateSilver538 I said this afternoon I had a “gut feeling” that Sanders could beat his polling in MI. Here's what was behind that. http://53eig.ht/221kabX

This is just embarrassing.

 

[Makai]

This drives me up a wall. We've got one of the most qualified candidates ever and we're messing about with a guy who can't answer a single question without tying it back to one issue?

It's mind boggling. The more I have to hear about Bernie the more I hate him.

It's called staying on message!

 

[HUELEN10]

Very, very impressive win for Sanders tonight.

Thank god Clinton is going to be running against an unelectable republican.

Keep telling yourself that.

 

[VRMN]

Congrats to Bernie. But this concern trolling on CNN is lol.

Media loves a horserace. That said, next Tuesday will be very telling. Hillary supporters' reasons for complacency should vanish after tonight.

 

[Brinbe]

Are you fucking kidding me? Don't compare Clinton to fucking Romney. CNN is being stupidly ridiculous right now.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

So, how will Trump vs. Cruz, one-on-one, go once Rubio and Kasich drop out on March 15th?

 

[Iolo]

This is why everybody cheering on Trump because of poor polls in the GE is an idiot. Trump could win in November.

 

[Basileus777]

This is just embarrassing.

What was embarrassing was the other 538 people effusively praising him tonight for that amazing prediction that he hedged and wasn't even willing to commit to.

So, how will Trump vs. Cruz, one-on-one, go once Rubio and Kasich drop out on March 15th?

Kasich won't drop out, there's no reason to with Rubio dead.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Can anyone did up how delegate counts were in 2008 at this point and how they played out.

 

[Makai]

This is just embarrassing.

It's a given that his model will be wrong sometimes. But come on, Nate! The drift into normal polling is ridiculous. I dunno if I wasn't following him closely enough in 2012 and 2014 or something because I don't remember him acting like this at all.

 

[Kusagari]

Silver looks like a loser for bragging about this now.

 

[PBY]

This is why everybody cheering on Trump because of poor polls in the GE is an idiot. Trump could win in November.

He could win

But Trump isn't above polling lol

 

[Loudninja]

Are you fucking kidding me? Don't compare Clinton to fucking Romney. CNN is being stupidly ridiculous right now.

Its CNN its what they do.

 

[Cerium]

So how many delegates does Clinton add to her lead?

 

[Phanatic8390]

Are you fucking kidding me? Don't compare Clinton to fucking Romney. CNN is being stupidly ridiculous right now.

I'd be prepared for this all week. The polls were so wrong it's gonna be concern trolling of the highest order.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

So how many delegates does Clinton add to her lead?

20 some

 

[A Human Becoming]

Are you fucking kidding me? Don't compare Clinton to fucking Romney. CNN is being stupidly ridiculous right now.

That emotional barrier comparison was harsh.

EDIT: Boo Cruz is going to win Idaho.

 

[User 85168]

So how many delegates does Clinton add to her lead?

I don't think it's final, but looking at NY Elections page, she's +17 net delegates

 

[eBay Huckster]

Can anyone did up how delegate counts were in 2008 at this point and how they played out.

2008's a bit weird because Super Tuesday was a lot more frontloaded that year. I'll see how the states actually compare, at least.

 

[Makai]

Are you fucking kidding me? Don't compare Clinton to fucking Romney. CNN is being stupidly ridiculous right now.

She is Romney. Inevitable nominee that is challenged by an insurgent faction of the party. Democrats might get their own Trump in 2020s.

 

[NeoXChaos]

well its going to be a fun tuesday. Pollsters better check their models.

 

[VRMN]

20 some

It's actually funny how her lead expands but Bernie is the winner because of media perceptions. I get it and it's an incredible story of polling failure, but man, the media doesn't really like explaining how the system really works if it goes against the narrative.

 

[Rubenov]

I can get behind Obama and I can get behind Clinton, but I can't get behind Bernie. I fucking like Wall Street. Banks are essential to our economy.

If the Democrats go the way of Sanders I'll have to go Republican.

 

[Basileus777]

Cruz projected winner of Idaho. With Rubio under the threshold Trump should still get a decent delegate haul out of the state.

 

[JetBlackPanda]

I like Bernie but I'm a Hillary person I wish my Bernie friends could say the same. Instead I get Hillary for prison 2016 jokes and feel the bern every time he wins anything.

So fucking annoying