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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated

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M

Macho Madness

Member
Aaron Strife said:
There was no Senate election in Indiana in 08. Dems lost Evan Bayh's seat in 2010.

They did however lose the governor's seat, but Mitch Daniels was so popular there was no way he would lose anyway.
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Haven't had polling on Pence since November. I hate it. He was underwater (but not by much) then. I want to see more now.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
weren't the plains states heavily Conservative and Republican back in 20's, 30's and 40's? What about the west? CA was very Republican at one time.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
There was no Senate election in Indiana in 08. Dems lost Evan Bayh's seat in 2010.

They did however lose the governor's seat, but Mitch Daniels was so popular there was no way he would lose anyway.
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Although it should be noted that Daniels was the incumbent in 2008 (and he had a very weak opponent). The Dems actually lost the governorship to him in 2004 when he defeated the incumbent Joe Kernan.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Worth noting that if Rubio does the almost impossible and gets the nomination, it would only happen in the Republican party.

If this was happening in the Democratic party, the race would already be over.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Full of fuzzy math and improbable scenarios. If Sanders gets pummeled on Tuesday he becomes an obstructionist candidate trying to prevent Hillary from gaining a majority of delegates, he has no realistic path himself.
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could not resist.
 
T

Teggy

Member
A Human Becoming said:
Generations1.jpg
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My people swung red in 2004? That is not something I would have expected to see.
 
I

Iolo

Member
Basileus777 said:
Full of fuzzy math and improbable scenarios. If Rubio gets pummeled on Tuesday he becomes an obstructionist candidate trying to prevent Trump from gaining a majority of delegates, he has no realistic path himself.
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Yes the common theme in the couple analyses I've seen is they assume Trump will get about 100 more delegates than Rubio during Super Tuesday, which can be made up by winning Florida (99). But if the margin is significantly larger...
 
B

Brawndo Addict

Banned
Everything there is applicable to Cruz too is it not? I don't see how it's Rubio's path to victory is any more probable than Cruz's unless it's about the brokered convention.
 
R

Rubenov

Member
Iolo said:
Yes the common theme in the couple analyses I've seen is they assume Trump will get about 100 more delegates than Rubio during Super Tuesday, which can be made up by winning Florida (99). But if the margin is significantly larger...
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Florida is not on Super Tuesday but on the 15th, and Marco is down by double digits. He won't win there.
 
I

Iolo

Member
Rubenov said:
Florida is not on Super Tuesday but on the 15th, and Marco is down by double digits. He won't win there.
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That's what I mean, the analyses assume zero wins on Super Tuesday.

For a 100 delegate differential they also assume Rubio is viable in every state on ST, which is a big assumption at this point.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Iolo said:
Yes the common theme in the couple analyses I've seen is they assume Trump will get about 100 more delegates than Rubio during Super Tuesday, which can be made up by winning Florida (99). But if the margin is significantly larger...
Click to expand...

And it could very well be larger. Rubio is dangling around the threshold in key states like Georgia (which is worth 76 delegates alone), and the rules in most of the states are not nearly as proportional as they are being sold as.

Brawndo Addict said:
Everything there is applicable to Cruz too is it not? I don't see how it's Rubio's path to victory is any more probable than Cruz's unless it's about the brokered convention.
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Cruz is done. He has no path to the nomination. Rubio needs to over-perform his polling on Tuesday to stay alive.
 
B

Brawndo Addict

Banned
Basileus777 said:
Cruz is done. He has no path to the nomination. Rubio needs to over-perform his polling on Tuesday to stay alive.
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He's got the same number of delegates as Rubio does he not? And he's polling around the same 20% range as Rubio too. If Rubio is grabbing delegates proportionally so will Cruz.

We can't just say he's done if our only evidence is the perception that he lost the debate. Same thing happened to Rubio and it didn't matter much. If Cruz is done then so is Rubio. I don't see how the math applies to one perennial 20% candidate but not the other.
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Basileus777 said:
And it could very well be larger. Rubio is dangling around the threshold in key states like Georgia (which is worth 76 delegates alone), and the rules in most of the states are not nearly as proportional as they are being sold as.
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The rules are a fucking mess.

Basically Alaska, Mass, Minnesota and Vermont are proportional while the rest are hybrids like South Carolina where they're given by district and overall winner.

If I was Rubio I would be trying hard to win Congressional Districts in states he can't win plurality. Don't come out of several states without a single delegate.
 
R

Rubenov

Member
Brawndo Addict said:
He's got the same number of delegates as Rubio does he not? And he's polling around the same 20% range as Rubio too. If Rubio is grabbing delegates proportionally so will Cruz.
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Cruz will likely have more than Marco when he wins Texas. Still the only path to the nomination open to both of them is the path of shenanigans.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Basileus777 said:
Full of fuzzy math and improbable scenarios. If Rubio gets pummeled on Tuesday he becomes an obstructionist candidate trying to prevent Trump from gaining a majority of delegates, he has no realistic path himself.
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If Trump wins 10/11 States on ST, Trump should just crow nonstop (especially at the debate to Rubitron's face) that he has won 13 States and Rubio has won 0. Hammer that home.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
A Human Becoming said:
The rules are a fucking mess.

Basically Alaska, Mass, Minnesota and Vermont are proportional while the rest are hybrids like South Carolina where they're given by district and overall winner.

If I was Rubio I would be trying hard to win Congressional Districts in states he can't win plurality. Don't come out of several states without a single delegate.
Click to expand...

I don't think he has the organization for that. His team has been bragging how they're like the Uber of political campaigns for months now.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Bowdz said:
If Trump wins 10/11 States on ST, Trump should just crow nonstop (especially at the debate to Rubitron's face) that he has won 13 States and Rubio has won 0. Hammer that home.
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Look. I'm a winner, right? I win big. In the north. In the South. I love the south! We love the south. We win. And we win big. YUGE numbers. YUGE. And you haven't won anything. You're a loser. Weak. You swing, but you miss. Big ears, no wins. No delegates. Do you need water? We can get you water. People want a winner. And I win. I win big. Everywhere. Big winner. Big company. Little man. WINNING.
 
S

sangreal

Member
Rubio is pretty good at throwing insults gotta admit. Saw him arguing that Donald is a failed businessman and should have put his money in an index fund (a common argument here on gaf)
 
B

Bowdz

Member
adam387 said:
Look. I'm a winner, right? I win big. In the north. In the South. I love the south! We love the south. We win. And we win big. YUGE numbers. YUGE. And you haven't won anything. You're a loser. Weak. You swing, but you miss. Big ears, no wins. No delegates. Do you need water? We can get you water. People want a winner. And I win. I win big. Everywhere. Big winner. Big company. Little man. WINNING.
Click to expand...

Magneto-perfection.gif
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
B-Dubs said:
I don't think he has the organization for that. His team has been bragging how they're like the Uber of political campaigns for months now.
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I think his Super Pac is sort of doing that targeting the D.C. media market in Virginia, Virginia Beach/Norfolk area, along with Richmond. In Georgia they're going after Atlanta and in Texas Dallas, Austin, Houston, and San Antonio. Remember Rubio does well in big cities.
Hammer24 said:
Isn't this exactly his Texas strategy?
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Seems so.
 
L

lenovox1

Member
sangreal said:
Rubio is pretty good at throwing insults gotta admit. Saw him arguing that Donald is a failed businessman and should have put his money in an index fund (a common argument here on gaf)
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As if a man living "paycheck to paycheck" on a $179,000 salary has any room to talk.
 
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