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[Black Mamba]

I'm gonna call bullshit on this. No fucking way to Trump win by 10 fucking points.

These types of models are so stupid. You can create models that say X will win just by cherry-picking inputs.

It's the same shit as people arguing "party fatigue" as if this is a real thing. It's not.

At the end of the day, these 5 things matter.

1. current state of economy

2. current state of foreign affairs

3. scandal and or incompetence

4. turnout

5. who the candidates are.

That's it.

 

[B-Dubs]

But Sanders actually voted FOR it.

But she lobbied to get it passed!

These types of models are so stupid. You can create models that say X will win just by cherry-picking inputs.

It's the same shit as people arguing "party fatigue" as if this is a real thing. It's not.

At the end of the day, these 5 things matter.

1. current state of economy

2. current state of foreign affairs

3. scandal and or incompetence

4. turnout

5. who the candidates are.

That's it.

Agreed. Hell I seem to remember us savaging a similar model four years ago for being dumb.

 

[sangreal]

Someone should tell Marco that you need to win 8 primaries to qualify in a brokered GOP convention

(well technically he just needs to win over the delegates but still)

 

[Plinko]

http://dailycaller.com/2016/02/24/p...s-of-president-trump-range-between-97-and-99/

South Carolina pretty much predicts the nomination!

.

 

[Frank the Great]

http://dailycaller.com/2016/02/24/p...s-of-president-trump-range-between-97-and-99/

Models like this are dumb because even if it is correct for the past 104 years . . . that is only 26 elections. 26 is too small a sample size to make any model truly predictive.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Who do I need to ask very nicely to get a new MA poll?

call or email boston globe.

 

[Plinko]

I thought we had new polls at 5?

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Not individual state polls I guess?

It's like useless. What the fuck bloomberg.

 

[Jarmel]

Welcome. Buy low and sell high and you'll do just fine.

Just remember that for every success story there's always some sucker out there who did it wrong.

I post tips in this thread whenever I see a good buy opportunity. People don't usually listen to me but c'est la vie.

I'm waiting for those Clinton shares to drop then going in big. Those being in the 40s range the past week should have been a no brainer buy.

 

[NeoXChaos]

 

[RustyNails]

It's over.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/25/politics/rubio-republican-convention/index.html

1968 here we come!

Cleveland better start preparing for riots.

 

[Basileus777]

Where is Team Rubio buying TV time? The answer: Virginia, Georgia and Texas. His PAC has splashed out over $1.5 million in these key Super Tuesday states and appears focused on the establishment’s backyard as well — Virginia’s Washington, D.C. suburbs.

Texas? Why? As part of some ploy to knock Cruz out of the race, even if Rubio has little chance of breaking out of 3rd there?

 

[BoboBrazil]

Well, Trump won't win, but it's fun to encourage his base. Also RNC said they are planning to "discipline" Trump according to CNN.

 

[B-Dubs]

Texas? Why? As part of some ploy to knock Cruz out of the race, even if Rubio has little chance of breaking out of 3rd there?

It could be, but it would only benefit Trump.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Texas? Why? As part of some ploy to knock Cruz out of the race, even if Rubio has little chance of breaking out of 3rd there?

To break 20%. Otherwise he doesn't get any delegates.

 

[PBY]

What the fuck are these polls

These seem aggressively useless

 

[Plinko]

Not individual state polls I guess?

It's like useless. What the fuck bloomberg.

Bwahahaha

1) Useless poll
2) Even if a guy drops out, Rubio still would lose? LOL

 

[Basileus777]

IMG

Dat ceiling.

To break 20%. Otherwise he doesn't get any delegates.

Ah right, I overlooked that part.

 

[JesseEwiak]

For those of you freaking out about Trump -

“That [Democratic] researcher estimated that of all the material they’ve compiled — court and property records, newspaper clips and videos — approximately 80 percent of it has yet to surface in this election cycle.”

 

[User 463088]

1968 here we come!

Cleveland better start preparing for riots.

We'll keep the river on for you all

 

[Teggy]

call or email boston globe.

Yes, I'm sure they'll get right on that for me lol.

Seriously though, they did a NH poll, why haven't they done a MA poll. I guess they could be holding it for the weekend.

 

[Incognito]

wtf, bloomberg. what a waste of money for that poll.

 

[Bishman]

But Sanders actually voted FOR it.

He needs to be held accountable too!

 

[BoboBrazil]

Damnit, the more I hear, the more I'm thinking this debate is going to be to try to destroy Trump from every side. He's going to have to be on his game tonight.

 

[danm999]

Debate performance doesn't matter for Donald in the primary. It's just not what his supporters are looking for.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Grassley to (possibly) receive a legitimate challenger

Amid a heated controversy over a Supreme Court vacancy, Democrats in Iowa and nationally are weighing whether Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley, considered nearly unbeatable, may now be vulnerable.

Patty Judge, a former Iowa lieutenant governor and secretary of agriculture, told The Des Moines Register she believes Grassley deserves a real race in 2016 — and that she’s thinking about running.

“I’m not ruling it out,” Judge, 72, said Thursday morning when reached at home in Albia.

Judge, who was twice elected statewide as the secretary of agriculture before serving as lieutenant governor under Chet Culver from 2007 to 2011, said Grassley deserves a strong challenge this year because of the distinctly un-Iowan way he’s handled the High Court vacancy left by Justice Antonin Scalia’s death earlier this month.

“Iowans have always been straight shooters, and up until the recent time I would have said the same thing about Chuck,” Judge said.

60 seats here we come

Remember guys the Court is more important the Senate, even if we lose both laughingsmiley.gif

 

[B-Dubs]

Damnit, the more I hear, the more I'm thinking this debate is going to be to try to destroy Trump from every side. He's going to have to be on his game tonight.

That actually plays to his strengths. Trump is a god-like counterpuncher and as long as they keep coming at him from the same direction he'll keep pushing their shit in.

 

[Black Mamba]

To break 20%. Otherwise he doesn't get any delegates.

Even if he breaks 20%, he may only get 5 delegates or so based on how Texas awards (mostly it's each district has 3, 2 to 1st, 2nd to RU). Honestly, his only purpose is to prevent Cruz or trump from getting 50% and WTA.

Unless there's a remarkable game changing event tonight, this is pretty much over. This entire primary on both sides will be done on Tuesday night.

 

[Cerium]

I'm waiting for those Clinton shares to drop then going in big. Those being in the 40s range the past week should have been a no brainer buy.

How much money are you starting with?

 

[CCS]

Posting on my phone because the Internet's gone down in my flat. Might have to go to bed instead of watching tonight's debate. I don't want to miss Rubio's death

 

[BoboBrazil]

That actually plays to his strengths. Trump is a god-like counterpuncher and as long as they keep coming at him from the same direction he'll keep pushing their shit in.

I hope so, the debate this week will be huge for late decision people on Tuesday and the debate next week will have Megyn Kelly out for blood against him before Florida and Ohio.

 

[User 463088]

Posting on my phone because the Internet's gone down in my flat. Might have to go to bed instead of watching tonight's debate. I don't want to miss Rubio's death

Do you want to use my logins for my cable account? There are iOS and Android apps. If so, PM me. Not sure if they're in the UK app store, but hit me up if you want them.

 

[Bronx-Man]

Damnit, the more I hear, the more I'm thinking this debate is going to be to try to destroy Trump from every side. He's going to have to be on his game tonight.

I'm sure Marco Rubio of all people is gonna be able to take the fight to Trump.

 

[Tarkus]

You still a Rubio supporter, btw?

I agree with Kasich more than Rubio I think, but he has no chance. So it's going to be Rubio even though I hate his stance on abortion/lgbt/religious shit. I wouldn't show up to vote if Cruz got the nom. I seriously don't think I could vote for Trump given the things he's said. I wouldn't feel good about it. His policies are okay for the most part, but not him. Fuck him.

 

[PBY]

I agree with Kasich more than Rubio I think, but he has no chance. So it's going to be Rubio even though I hate his stance on abortion/lgbt/religious shit. I wouldn't show up to vote if Cruz got the nom. I seriously don't think I could vote for Trump given the things he's said. I wouldn't feel good about it. His policies are okay for the most part, but not him. Fuck him.

What draws you to Rubio? Asking bc I generally just want to know

 

[QuiteWhittle]

When is that Florida PPP poll out? Tomorrow?

 

[User 463088]

I agree with Kasich more than Rubio I think, but he has no chance. So it's going to be Rubio even though I hate his stance on abortion/lgbt/religious shit. I wouldn't show up to vote if Cruz got the nom. I seriously don't think I could vote for Trump given the things he's said. I wouldn't feel good about it. His policies are okay for the most part, but not him. Fuck him.

If it's Trump/Queen Hillary, can I count on you to vote for our queen

 

[Fenderputty]

It's over.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/25/politics/rubio-republican-convention/index.html

Please be real please be real

 

[Aaron Strife]

I agree with Kasich more than Rubio I think, but he has no chance. So it's going to be Rubio even though I hate his stance on abortion/lgbt/religious shit. I wouldn't show up to vote if Cruz got the nom. I seriously don't think I could vote for Trump given the things he's said. I wouldn't feel good about it. His policies are okay for the most part, but not him. Fuck him.

Come to the dark side, by which I mean the "Hillary in the general" side. We have free donuts and coffee on Wednesdays.

 

[CCS]

Do you want to use my logins for my cable account? There are iOS and Android apps. If so, PM me. Not sure if they're in the UK app store, but hit me up if you want them.

Cheers for the offer, but I don't have enough data left to watch them on my phone thank you though! I'll be up for another hour or so at least anyway and hopefully it'll come back in that time

 

[User 463088]

Come to the dark side, by which I mean the "Hillary in the general" side. We have free donuts and coffee on Wednesdays.

Also, some of us will do anything to secure your vote.

And I do mean anything.

 

[Black Mamba]

That actually plays to his strengths. Trump is a god-like counterpuncher and as long as they keep coming at him from the same direction he'll keep pushing their shit in.

honestly, I don't think Trump is god-like. It's just his competitors are herp derps.

Cruz is the only one with real chops, but not in this format on these topics. He is better in a format discussion at length real policy, perhaps, but not 1 minute rebuttals talking about his "dirty tricks" or what not. Plus he's a smarmy fuck.

Rubio just...well, he sucks. I could school him. Kasich won't play dirty, so he doesn't matter. And Carson is reading a thesarus out loud at all times.

Honestly, the only ones that have a chance to screw up Donald are moderators. But if they try, they'll look biased and it will backfire.

How many times will we hear Obama's name, tonight? Has anyone noticed Trump doesn't really debate Obama? But Rubio, Christie, Cruz constantly do...

 

[johnsmith]

It begins

First Republican for Hillary Clinton Over Donald Trump Emerges
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/02/first-republican-for-clinton-over-trump-emerges.html
Spoiler alert: it's a Brookings institute guy, Robert Kagan


Your move, David Brooks.

 

[B-Dubs]

honestly, I don't think Trump is god-like. It's just his competitors are herp derps.

Cruz is the only one with real chops, but not in this format on these topics. He is better in a format discussion at length real policy, perhaps, but not 1 minute rebuttals talking about his "dirty tricks" or what not. Plus he's a smarmy fuck.

Rubio just...well, he sucks. I could school him. Kasich won't play dirty, so he doesn't matter. And Carson is reading a thesarus out loud at all times.

Honestly, the only ones that have a chance to screw up Donald are moderators. But if they try, they'll look biased and it will backfire.

Well, he's god-like compared to the utter morons he's running against.

 

[Makai]

Someone should tell Marco that you need to win 8 primaries to qualify in a brokered GOP convention

(well technically he just needs to win over the delegates but still)

Adlai Stevenson!

 

[User 463088]

Cheers for the offer, but I don't have enough data left to watch them on my phone thank you though! I'll be up for another hour or so at least anyway and hopefully it'll come back in that time

No worries. Anytime.

 

[Black Mamba]

Well, he's god-like compared to the utter morons he's running against.

Yup. How's the saying go? In the valley of the blind, the one eyed man is king?

 

[Basileus777]

From Bloomberg's polling of SEC Primary states:

The real estate mogul and former reality television star is also more popular in the region than Pope Francis and he gets more support than the pontiff when it comes to their differing views on the Christianity of building walls, including among a majority of Catholics, after poll respondents were read the two men's words.

"These voters rate Trump as the least conservative and the least committed Christian of the three top candidates, and yet he still leads," said pollster Doug Usher, who led the survey. "He's turning everything we thought we knew about Republican primary voters on its head."

Trump is bigger than god.



Also of interest:

Only a slim majority of the likely Republican primary voters are supportive of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's position in opposition to holding confirmation hearings prior to November's election for a President Barack Obama appointee to fill the spot of deceased Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia.

Taking no action on a nominee and allowing the next president to name a replacement is supported by 51 percent, compared to 40 percent who say hearings and a vote should be held.

Even 40% of Republicans in the South think there should be hearings! GJ McConnell.

 

[Wilsongt]

Good lord new thread already

 

[Orbis Tabula]

The ideal scenario would be a contested convention, I think. I'm still a little bit scared of Trump in the general. Not like, really really scared. Just that little bit of irrational terror. But having a contested convention really drive a wedge into the GOP would help put me at ease, I think.