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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated

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G

Grief.exe

Member
Diablos said:
My concern is turnout. Not that primary turnout always determines how things will go in the GE but there is quite a gap between parties and the Republicans are just crushing it.

I also think despite how appalling it is that Trump is basically saying what he wants, how he wants... it's like a breath of fresh air for a lot of people. Especially people who do not "get" politics and are not happy with the way things are going.

I know Trump gloats a lot but he has been listing off lots of blue states and swing states as winnable for him. It would be interesting to see what his campaign may be seeing internally.
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My theory is most Democrats assume Hilary is a foregone conclusion and are electing to not participate in the process as a result.

I am worried as the Conservative media has their base whipped up into a frenzy. "We need to turn back the clock on the last 7 years."
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
cartoon_soldier said:
And Rubio below 20% please.
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I think this will be challenging.

If Cruz gets 40%, which would mean he's outperforming all of his polling, and Trump gets 25%, then if Rubio got 19%, there's 8% each between Kasich and Carson. That would be a significant outperformance for them, right? And there's really no reason for that to happen.

I'm kind of fearing the next debate.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
Grief.exe said:
My theory is most Democrats assume Hilary is a foregone conclusion and are electing to not participate in the process as a result.

I am worried as the Conservative media has their base whipped up into a frenzy. "We need to turn back the clock on the last 7 years."
Click to expand...

The general election campaign is a completely different animal. I'm not saying it's entirely predictable, but she'll have the the entire Democratic Party up to and including the goddamn President as a surrogate, and at this point some quiet Republican support is not out of the question either.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Y2Kev said:
I think this will be challenging.

If Cruz gets 40%, which would mean he's outperforming all of his polling, and Trump gets 25%, then if Rubio got 19%, there's 8% each between Kasich and Carson. That would be a significant outperformance for them, right? And there's really no reason for that to happen.

I'm kind of fearing the next debate.
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Difficult yes due to the fact that late deciders tend to break for Rubio. Rubio's average polling is 17.8%, though we don't have any post debate Texas polls yet. Kasich/Carson are combining at 11% currently in average.
 
R

Rubenov

Member
Trump can dish it out but he can't take it. Seems he's genuinely rattled about Rubio's attacks now. Flustered.

What took you so damn long establishment, to attack Donald that way?

While it may be too late to prevent Trump from winning the nom, it has exposed the easiest way to beat him. Hill has to go on the offensive and has to go early. The uplifting message is nice, but it must be combined with highlighting all of the faults Trump has.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Keep in mind that Carson will probably drop soon, and Trump gets most of his voters at last check.

Cruz dropping (if it happens) will be the most interesting thing. I'm not worried about next debate--Christie is going to coach Trump to amazing levels when it comes to attacks and brushing off attacks.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Cheebo said:
He always outperforms his polls. That is not happening. Based on the race so far adding about 5% to any Rubio please lol numbers is a good way to see where he will finish due to getting nearly all late decides.
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Y2Kev said:
Might have to subtract 5% from cruz. His campaign is cratering.
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Agreed. I think the fact that we don't have any post debate/mud slinging polls means we don't have that good of an indicator of ST results for GOP. Rubio managed to make Cruz a complete non factor in the race.

Cruz will still win TX, but overall these 4 days will be more consequential for Tuesday.

Florida 2012, there was this period where Gingrich pulled ahead of Romney for a week. And it all went to shit after the debate there for Gingrich if I remember correctly.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
cartoon_soldier said:
Agreed. I think the fact that we don't have any post debate/mud slinging polls means we don't have that good of an indicator of ST results for GOP. Rubio managed to make Cruz a complete non factor in the race.

Cruz will still win TX, but overall these 4 days will be more consequential for Tuesday.

Florida 2012, there was this period where Gingrich pulled ahead of Romney for a week. And it all went to shit after the debate there for Gingrich if I remember correctly.
Click to expand...

Also keep in mind that a likely voter poll showed 44% of voters thought Trump "won" that last debate, compared to 30 for Rubio.

I don't think the debates are doing much at all.
 
B

Black Republican

Member
Plinko said:
Keep in mind that Carson will probably drop soon, and Trump gets most of his voters at last check.

Cruz dropping (if it happens) will be the most interesting thing. I'm not worried about next debate--Christie is going to coach Trump to amazing levels when it comes to attacks and brushing off attacks.
Click to expand...

Carson dropping out would probably be the best thing for Cruz, since most of his former staffers/people went for Cruz
 
T

Teggy

Member
Nazgul_Hunter said:
Lol. Trump just said on CNN that he had to do research before disavowing David Duke and the KKK from endorsing him.

Of course the host just dropped it
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OK, I had to transcribe this. Trump is just dogshit.

CNN: I guess the question from the Anti-Defamation League is, even if you don't know about their endorsement there are these groups and individuals endorsing you, would you just say unequivocally you condemn them and you don't want their support?

Trump: Well I have to look at the group. I mean, I don't know what group you're talking about. You wouldn't want me to condemn a group I know nothing about. I'd have to look. If you send me a list of the groups I will do research on them and certainly I would disavow if I thought there was something wrong. But you may have groups in there that are totally fine and it would be very unfair, so give me a list of the groups and I'll let you know.

CNN: OK, I mean I'm just talking about David Duke and the Ku Klux Klan here but...

Trump: I don't know, honestly I don't know David Duke. I don't believe I've ever met him, I'm pretty sure I didn't meet him and I just don't know anything about him.
Click to expand...

http://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2016/02/28/donald-trump-white-supremacists-david-duke-sotu.cnn
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Meet the PressVerified account ‏@meetthepress 7m7 minutes ago
BREAKING on #MTP: @TulsiGabbard just announced her resignation as DNC Vice Chair and endorsement of @BernieSanders #Decision2016
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Will this help him with the Hawaii caucuses
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
Plinko said:
Also keep in mind that a likely voter poll showed 44% of voters thought Trump "won" that last debate, compared to 30 for Rubio.

I don't think the debates are doing much at all.
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That one debate did screw over Rubio pretty hard, so they do have a legit short term effect. It just doesn't last, I guess. Probably because nobody says anything important or worth reevaluating your positions for.
 
G

Giant Panda

Member
It is interesting watching Reddit devour itself on politics. The people supporting Bernie simply for being anti-establishment seem to be shifting over to Trump, so now Trump posts seem to be equal parts for and against. It's amazing the mental gymnastics the Trump people will do to justify what Trump has said.
 
S

sphagnum

Banned
HylianTom said:
Awww shhheeeeeeiiit..

I love it when he does this; you can hear Reince reaching into his desk for the whiskey bottle..
Click to expand...

At this point, wouldn't a Trump third party run be the best thing for the GOP? They'd be able to disavow him, blame the loss of the presidency on Trump instead of themselves, focus entirely on the Senate race, and try to restructure for 2020.

That NYT article makes it sound like they've basically already given up on getting the presidency if Trump gets the nomination anyway.
 
Y

Yellowtail

Member
Giant Panda said:
It is interesting watching Reddit devour itself on politics. The people supporting Bernie simply for being establishment seem to be shifting over to Trump, so now Trump posts seem to be equal parts for and against. It's amazing the mental gymnastics the Trump people will do to justify what Trump has said.
Click to expand...
I don't think Reddit's ever been able to forgive Hillary for that video games bill.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
This could honestly explain the low turnout right here

CcRQbf5XEAELXtn.jpg


The same can't be said for the Republicans.
 
I

Incognito

Troll
Wow, Trump is beating Rubio in Virginia? I thought I saw Rubio winning there and that being his best state to eek out a win. Would be bad if he lost. Sad but true.

Anyway, two days. Hurry upppppp
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
gcubed said:
Why can't DWS quit?
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Why would she? Because a lot of liberals dont like her? Party leaders don't resign in the middle of a campaign unless something truly drastic happens to force them out. That would be a complete mess if she resigned. You don't do that at this point in a campaign unless its a huge showstopper level scandal.
 
R

Rubenov

Member
Incognito said:
Wow, Trump is beating Rubio in Virginia? I thought I saw Rubio winning there and that being his best state to eek out a win. Would be bad if he lost. Sad but true.

Anyway, two days. Hurry upppppp
Click to expand...

Yep, Virginia is Trump's. Minnesota may go to Rubio, but at this points bets are on Trump as well.
 
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