User 463088
Banned
Hahahaha.
Real answer is because it's a caucus and for some reason they didn't include it on the list.
I've read both of Hillarys. I preferred "Living History." It was excellent.
PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated
- Thread starter Makai
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Hahahaha.
Real answer is because it's a caucus and for some reason they didn't include it on the list.
I've read both of Hillarys. I preferred "Living History." It was excellent.
You will be spared after Hillary makes her ascension in January. The rest of Colorado, however, not so lucky.
No one on CNN tonight thought that the GOP would actually do a brokered convention if Trump has a majority of the delegates need and falls a few short. Everyone said that degree of fuckery would be truly unprecedented and would absolutely result in a fracture far worse than Donald's nomination.
And_Gignac
Member
Remember how New Hampshire and Iowa are two of Bernie's best states because of all the white liberals?
Green = Bernie win
Red = Bernie loss
Yellow = Upcoming primary/caucus within 2 weeks
lmao. and that chart doesnt even have Colorado. Little Clintons stay losing!
Sanders lost the Hispanic vote badly tonight.
aspiegamer
Member
Sort it by just Whites instead and it looks a lot more realistic. And that's his problem.
User 463088
Banned
Because it's a caucus....for some reason they didn't put certain caucus states on there.
According to Nate, Hillary outperformed her targets in every single state, except Oklahoma. She out ran her benchmarks by about 16 points today.
Damn gurl, get rekt.
vicissitudes
Banned
For some reason Nate's chart is missing about 10 states. I think he was too busy backtracking on Trump.
Glad you brought it up. I also found white population by state data with *gasp* all 50 states:
And_Gignac
Member
Everyone is afraid of Trump. They're acting like Kasich is the reason their primary is a hot mess. No, that would be because of Trump, the guy you're all afraid of. If any of them had the balls to attack him when he first started dominating the debates, they wouldn't be in this situation. I think Trump was infinitely beatable early on, but now it's too little too late.
Officerrob
Banned
I don't go to Reddit, but with Mass being close, are Bernie supporters even more pissed Warren didn't endorse him?
shinra-bansho
Member
On balance;
Clinton probably had the best night. Her margins are yuuuge, and her strength with AA voters almost assures her the nomination. She didn't need to win Mass as much, but it's a white liberal feather in her cap. Her delegate lead is near insurmountable, provided her campaign is steady.
Trump had a very good night, with a lot of wins. In some places though it was probably close for comfort. Although his margins in others were yuuge, like Mass, Ga and Ala. Still the likely nominee, but maybe less assured. It depends on whether the GOP can get over their personal animosity to Ted Cruz.
Cruz had a good night, with an unexpected win and carrying his home state. He'll also emerge not too many delegates behind Trump based on Wasserman's calculation. Can make a better case for being the anti-Trump.
Sanders had an okay to bad night. He won in most of the states he was playing hard for, but the big exception was Mass and it was something of a must win. His margins in the white caucus states were bigger than expected. But he spent a lot of time and money for those wins. Losing the black vote this badly means there is no path though.
Little Marco had a dogshit night. Mostly thirds. His only win doesn't even give him a good delegate margin. Shut out of Texas statewide delegates. Awful mess. Big fat mistake.
Clinton probably had the best night. Her margins are yuuuge, and her strength with AA voters almost assures her the nomination. She didn't need to win Mass as much, but it's a white liberal feather in her cap. Her delegate lead is near insurmountable, provided her campaign is steady.
Trump had a very good night, with a lot of wins. In some places though it was probably close for comfort. Although his margins in others were yuuge, like Mass, Ga and Ala. Still the likely nominee, but maybe less assured. It depends on whether the GOP can get over their personal animosity to Ted Cruz.
Cruz had a good night, with an unexpected win and carrying his home state. He'll also emerge not too many delegates behind Trump based on Wasserman's calculation. Can make a better case for being the anti-Trump.
Sanders had an okay to bad night. He won in most of the states he was playing hard for, but the big exception was Mass and it was something of a must win. His margins in the white caucus states were bigger than expected. But he spent a lot of time and money for those wins. Losing the black vote this badly means there is no path though.
Little Marco had a dogshit night. Mostly thirds. His only win doesn't even give him a good delegate margin. Shut out of Texas statewide delegates. Awful mess. Big fat mistake.
And_Gignac
Member
Havent seen anything about it. I do saw this image though:
They are a bunch of problematic messes.
OMG YESS
eBay Huckster
Member
So 115 delegates still need to be allocated in states Clinton won, versus 48 in states Sanders won.
Any idea how those are gonna pan out?
my favorite thing about that image is the fact that half of those states don't even have projections
Any idea how those are gonna pan out?
Havent seen anything about it. I do saw this image though:
my favorite thing about that image is the fact that half of those states don't even have projections
Was it on TV or weblink?
User 463088
Banned
The only demographic Bernie won was white men. He lost everything else. He lost Latinos by 34 points. He lost women by a bit more than that. Basically, if it weren't for white men he wouldn't be a viable candidate.
hipsterpants
Member
Is Cruzmentum real?
My favorite part is how North Carolina is already a tie. And MA was a tie.
Officerrob
Banned
I think I'm done watching primary debates
I'll say this, even though polls this far ahead don't show it, Cruz is an easier opponent for Hillary to beat than Trump.
Real, strong and my friend.
metalslimer
Member
Which somehow doesn't worry many people at all. His numbers with minorities are completely abysmal.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
It would not really have effected the race enough to matter, but it is interesting. Maybe she is more of a realist than she lets on.
eBay Huckster
Member
e: editing this as I go through thegreenpapers pages
Clinton wins (American Samoa is already fully allocated):
AL: 44-9 (+2 margin relative to AP)
AR: 22-10 (flat)
GA: 67-28 (missing CD5 for some reason, -3 relative to AP without it, looks like flat with it)
MA: 46-45 (flat)
TN: 38-22 (missing CD9, -3 relative to AP without it, looks like +2 with it)
TX: 146-62 (+6 margin relative to AP, still missing SD6, 7 and 15)
VA: 62-33 (flat)
Sanders wins:
CO: 38-28 (flat)
MN: 46-31 (-4 relative to AP)
OK: 23-15 (-2 relative to AP)
VT: who gives a shit
overall margin looks like it's flat (from what was approximately 190), pending the remaining Texas delegates (which I'd guess are going to split 3-1, 3-1, and 4-2 in Clinton's favor).
of course, this could be underestimating Clinton's final margin like the last time I tried to parse this shit
Brawndo Addict
Banned
God that's one of my pet peeves, I absolutely loathe graphs and stats that don't segment evenly from 0-100. Whoever made that map apparently feels the difference between 0% home internet access and 72% home internet access is as important as the difference between 72% and 75%. I bet the margin of error is higher than that.
And_Gignac
Member
aspiegamer
Member
So he has 1 win outside of the top half of Whitest states, and 4 of his 5 wins are in the 5 Whitest states to vote thusfar? That's still awful, but actually not as bad as I thought it was. All the states he's favored in or polls well in are on the upper half of that chart, too. You can't build a Democratic coalition on that. That's his problem. He's got half of the typical Democratic base down nicely with a platform built around that specifically. The other half might as well be on a different planet.
Probably from congressional districts/senate districts that are not 100% in yet. Clinton will most likely take a big amount of what's outstanding.
User 463088
Banned
There are people on Reddit who are saying all Bernie has to do is follow the Dukakis path and he can win.
Hahahahahahahahahaha.
Hahahahahahahahahaha.
vicissitudes
Banned
titiklabingapat
Member
I figured Bernie would win 1 of OK/MN/CO, but all 3.....eek. I feel like the race keeps flip-flopping, but rather than "Hillary leading, now Bernie leading" it's more like "Hillary about to land the DEATH BLOW...oh wait Bernie got back up again."
It's so exhausting, I really just want the primary settled. The longer it goes on the more the Bernie people I know IRL and online become embittered toward Clinton.
I'll be voting in Michigan next week
It's over tonight, mang. The rest is just a slow march to the inevitable.
RastaMentality
Banned
On who did fucking terrible tonight:
Also, Kasich basically directly fucked with Rubio tonight:
Also, Kasich basically directly fucked with Rubio tonight:
hipsterpants
Member
A dragged out fight between Trump and Cruz is only beneficial to the Dems right? That and the entertainment of watching the nomination go to the convention and watching the GOP have to decide between the two.
Basileus777
Member
So coming up next for the GOP:
Saturday : Kansas caucus, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine caucus
Sunday : Puerto Rico, Hawaii caucus,
Tuesday : Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi
The only contests I see as winnable for Rubio are Puerto Rico and Hawaii. Trump and Cruz should clean up the rest.
Saturday : Kansas caucus, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine caucus
Sunday : Puerto Rico, Hawaii caucus,
Tuesday : Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi
The only contests I see as winnable for Rubio are Puerto Rico and Hawaii. Trump and Cruz should clean up the rest.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
But the Republican debates are so goodddddddd.
I think a more insightful graph would be white % of the Democratic primary, not the population as a whole, but the most recent (competitive) numbers we have are from 8 years ago and things are already pretty different compared to back then.For some reason Nate's chart is missing about 10 states. I think he was too busy backtracking on Trump.
Glad you brought it up. I also found white population by state data with *gasp* all 50 states:
vicissitudes
Banned
TBH this may actually make him the strongest GE candidate. All the minorities will vote for whomever the Democratic nominee is, whether it's Bernie or Hillary, but Bernie has much more support with the white vote than Hillary does.
And_Gignac
Member
I dont like the stereotyping of reddit users. Most of those crazy looking post have plenty of downvotes. There are also A LOT of well thought posts with thousands of upvotes that you never see screenshot´d here.
Slackerish
Member
Daaaaamn at the Rubitron delegates. Looks like Sam Wang's long predictions held firm. That Wang is a hard nut to crack.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
My poor poor former Jeb Bush aide friend said he's hearing lots of disappointment from major Florida donors concerning Rubio tonight. His camp talked big all week only to get dominated by Trump and Cruz. Lots of donors aren't convinced he's the guy, and they don't want to get on Trump's bad side now that he's the likely nominee.
Also hearing Romney might not endorse now. If Rubio had done decent or well - ie if he had won the four states his campaign pointed to - Romney would have endorsed him before the Idaho and Michigan contests next week. But now it looks like people recognize Rubio is about to get trounced in his home state and they don't want to jump on a sinking ship.
One more Trump thing: various GOP folks were initially pointing to Arkansas as proof that Trump was deflating, but as the night played out they got more and more quiet. It's looking like Trump is going to be the guy unless they steal the nomination at the convention.
Also hearing Romney might not endorse now. If Rubio had done decent or well - ie if he had won the four states his campaign pointed to - Romney would have endorsed him before the Idaho and Michigan contests next week. But now it looks like people recognize Rubio is about to get trounced in his home state and they don't want to jump on a sinking ship.
One more Trump thing: various GOP folks were initially pointing to Arkansas as proof that Trump was deflating, but as the night played out they got more and more quiet. It's looking like Trump is going to be the guy unless they steal the nomination at the convention.
Brawndo Addict
Banned
I love that Kasich's argument is basically "au contraire mon frère". I mean, he's not entirely wrong when you consider Cruz's performance relative to Rubio's.
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