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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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Holy shit. Trump just retweeted a version of the Mass Effect 2 trailer, but about him. Like I have no better way to describe it. Just wow...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iyQ8k7D91L8

Cerberus did nothing wrong/

Hahaha, that's great.

I had ads for Bernie's SuperPAC all over it which made it even funnier to me.

He'll do what Bioware can't, and make Mass Effect great again.

I love Mass Effect, even the shitty ending of ME3. :(
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
SCOTUS unanimously says all people count in drawing districts.

8-0.

Great decision.

Where's Meta?

Isn't that a huge backfire on the people that brought the case? I thought this was something that was already in use in some places but they wanted SCOTUS to signal this to be an option to be used everywhere.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Too bad Hillary is going to install right wing justices like her husband did.

Am I doing it right Tom?
MadelineBullshit.gif
 
I still can't wrap my head around how the GOP can think it will be cool to send out a GE candidate that no one voted for. Even someone who got less votes than the front runner.
 
Bernie doubled down on the fact that he's an Independent on "This Week" yesterday. Awesome. Gonna get them Supers any day now brah. Any day now.
 

Bowdz

Member
I still can't wrap my head around how the GOP can think it will be cool to send out a GE candidate that no one voted for. Even someone who got less votes than the front runner.

If they choose Ryan or Romney, it will be someone with less votes this cycle than Jim Gilmore.
 
I still can't wrap my head around how the GOP can think it will be cool to send out a GE candidate that no one voted for. Even someone who got less votes than the front runner.

It seems like the thinking is that they make the rules and the voters will just accept it because they have no other choice if they want to defeat the Democrats. They're taking a huge risk though because it's been a long time since the days when a dark horse could take the nomination at the convention and the idea that the people get to choose the nominees is now pretty ingrained. Maybe it'll work out assuming they could even pull it off, but I think there's a real risk in destroying the party's credibility.
 
I guess our final Wisconsin poll from Emerson

Cruz 40
Trump 35
Kasich 21

Sanders 51
Clinton 43

The democratic numbers are a 14 point swing from the Emerson poll a week ago. Is Emerson good?
 

Iolo

Member
I guess our final Wisconsin poll from Emerson

Cruz 40
Trump 35
Kasich 21

Sanders 51
Clinton 43

There is somewhat of a disconnect between these numbers and the early voting numbers posted earlier (52-39% in Sanders' favor). I would expect the margin to be 20% with those early vote #s.
 
I...I just can't believe that Trump Effect video isn't parody. Surely the 10/10 reviews and images of Carson and Christie when the Illusive Man mentions surrounding him with "the smartest, the toughest" was some perfectly edited joke, right?

Then I got to the end. I guess I shouldn't be surprised by such things anymore.

Still hilarious.
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
It seems like the thinking is that they make the rules and the voters will just accept it because they have no other choice if they want to defeat the Democrats. They're taking a huge risk though because it's been a long time since the days when a dark horse could take the nomination at the convention and the idea that the people get to choose the nominees is now pretty ingrained. Maybe it'll work out assuming they could even pull it off, but I think there's a real risk in destroying the party's credibility.

It also doesn't help that they have to wait all the way until mid July in order to go through with it. That's just a couple months before the presidential debates start, and a little over 3 months before election day.

Trying to simultaneously bring the party together while trying to get moderates to vote against Hillary in just 3 months is quite the task.
 

Hexa

Member
I think Trump can manage 50-100 delegates short with unbound putting him over the top. Over 100? lol nope.

If I understand this correctly is that everyone is unbound after the first vote, and the establishment has been working hard to give Trump delegates that will hence abandon him after the first vote.
 

PBY

Banned
Fucking Cruz man.

He should scare you, even though his odds are low, he actually knows what he's doing with his campaign. Like he will squeeze every ounce of batshit crazy, religious and/or racist American vote out of every state and district.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Let's hope Wang's numbers add up.
Oh god please. C'mon, Trump.. you can do this!

An election where you know your candidate is going to end-up winning (e.g., 2008)? Fun.
An election where you know your candidate is going to end-up winning when he/she would've been otherwise vulnerable? Delightful. Delicious. Delovely.
 

Iolo

Member
Fucking Cruz man.

He should scare you, even though his odds are low, he actually knows what he's doing with his campaign. Like he will squeeze every ounce of batshit crazy, religious and/or racist American vote out of every state and district.

He got destroyed with evangelicals in the SEC primary, his only hope at winning the nomination outright, after spending a tremendous amount of effort there. He doesn't sound scary, he just sounds more competent than Trump in wrangling delegates, because he's not-Trump.

A data-driven campaign only changes the margins, it doesn't make people not detest you.
 

Tom_Cody

Member
Thats actually... not terrible for Big Don.

But he always underachieves his polling, and Cruz does the opposite.
It's an open primary though, which has been the most favorable configuration for Trump relative to Cruz. The result will probably be similar to the RCP average.

Fucking Cruz man.

He should scare you, even though his odds are low, he actually knows what he's doing with his campaign. Like he will squeeze every ounce of batshit crazy, religious and/or racist American vote out of every state and district.
Eh, I think he's equally likely to lose the general election, though he might make some senate races closer.
 
Fucking Cruz man.

He should scare you, even though his odds are low, he actually knows what he's doing with his campaign. Like he will squeeze every ounce of batshit crazy, religious and/or racist American vote out of every state and district.

Trump is Grendel and Cruz is Grendel's mother.
 

PBY

Banned
It's an open primary though, which has been the most favorable configuration for Trump relative to Cruz. The result will probably be similar to the RCP average.

Eh, I think he's equally likely to lose the general election, though he might make some senate races closer.

Oh, I def don't think he'll beat Hillary. BUT I don't think he's Romney-tier clueless, and I think he can spike turnout in ways that would help the downballot races.
 

dramatis

Member
Apple, Google, Microsoft, and Amazon back EPA in challenge of clean energy rules
Tech giants are gathering in support of the Obama administration's contested plan to shift the US toward clean energy. Apple, Google, Microsoft, and Amazon joined together to file a court brief on Friday, describing their reasons for supporting the Environmental Protection Agency's Clean Power Plan. "Delaying action on climate change will be costly in economic and human terms, while accelerating the transition to a low-carbon economy will produce multiple benefits with regard to sustainable economic growth, public health, resilience to natural disasters, and the health of the global environment," the brief says.

The Clean Power Plan intends to cut carbon pollution 32 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. Accomplishing this will require more than just deployment of renewable energy sources; states will likely have to make their existing coal-fire plants more efficient, or else reduce their usage of them. The rules are currently being challenged in court by 27 states. In February, they were put on hold by the Supreme Court, signaling that the court — as it was then composed — may be leaning in the plaintiffs' direction.
 
it is pretty interesting how the crucial win state at the moment was Ohio, now moved to WI? media narrative or am i overthinking it?

then again WI has become more conservative (not necessarily less liberal) over the years
 
Well, back to reality. Got a 2 day break from campaigns via wrestlemania weekend. Freaking tired after watching 7 hours of wrestling last night.

Based on the story lines...Trump had a bad week apparently. Sanders wants a debate on a night where more people can watch...Wisconsin is tomorrow...
 
Well, back to reality. Got a 2 day break from campaigns via wrestlemania weekend. Freaking tired after watching 7 hours of wrestling last night.

Based on the story lines...Trump had a bad week apparently. Sanders wants a debate on a night where more people can watch...Wisconsin is tomorrow...
If you told me Wrestlemania was still going I'd have believed you
 
If you told me Wrestlemania was still going I'd have believed you

If you want to count tonight, it is. Last years raw after mania was lakluster, mostly because the year before with Bryan was so amazing and perfect.

But really, I was so tired after it was "over". But even then, it took me 4 hours to get home. It took 2 hours just to find my ride. 100k people leaving at the same time mixed with streets blocked off = chaos.
 
I can't stop thinking about a contested convention now. Currently, there are 332 delegates that were pledge to a candidate other than Cruz or Trump. There could easily be 400 unpledged delegates on the first ballot. Sure, most might not want to vote for Trump. But how would he really need that many of them? If he got to 1200, he'd only have a to convince a couple dozen delegates. It really would be just way to exciting to see all this go down.
 
I can't stop thinking about a contested convention now. Currently, there are 332 delegates that were pledge to a candidate other than Cruz or Trump. There could easily be 400 unpledged delegates on the first ballot. Sure, most might not want to vote for Trump. But how would he really need that many of them? If he got to 1200, he'd only have a to convince a couple dozen delegates. It really would be just way to exciting to see all this go down.

This is the magical part. Those unpledged delegates are the name of the game. I'd say Trump is guaranteed to need a maximum of 100 of them. Can he swipe 25% of them? That should be his number one priority.

Edit: I'm assuming 400 unpledged delegates, so 25% of them would deal it for Trump on the first ballot.
 

Iolo

Member
it is pretty interesting how the crucial win state at the moment was Ohio, now moved to WI? media narrative or am i overthinking it?

then again WI has become more conservative (not necessarily less liberal) over the years

Momentum always means "that which just happened" and the crucial state is always the next one.
 
Is there a good source for all the terrible stuff that Cruz believes/wants to do? My very religious grandma wants to write his name in if Trump gets nominated and I want to show her what an awful person he is
 
Wisconsin is getting a lot of momentum talk because it's literally the only state this week, and the last one before New York.

Which is going to be funny when Sanders and Cruz win Wisconsin and then lose New York. Momentum indeed.
 

Holmes

Member
New York is going to be the most crucial win state until the 19th, and then it'l be Pennsylvania on the 26th. Then I think no one will care about West Virginia or Oregon, it'll probably be all about California on June 7. On the Dem side anyway.

Indiana will probably be the most hard fought state on the Republican side in May. Sanders will spend $2 million on ads and hold 3 rallies every day and Clinton will be sleeping and relaxing with her 330 delegate lead.
 
Is there a good source for all the terrible stuff that Cruz believes/wants to do? My very religious grandma wants to write his name in if Trump gets nominated and I want to show her what an awful person he is
Ted Cruz Wikipedia.

Like literally this stuff comes out of his mouth. Finding sources on that shouldn't be hard. But if she wants to write his name in, fine. It's not a vote for Trump.
 
when you wake up to a message from that one berniebro on your list who's still bringing up "private prison lobby support" and the TPP
A friend of mine posted a huuuge essay about how much Hillary sucks in response to an image I made about Bernie's flip-flops. It had about two dozen "reasons" why the author (a supposed lifelong Democrat who voted Clinton twice, Kerry and Obama twice - hm, wonder where Gore was?) couldn't bring himself to support Hillary.

Among them the private prison lobby support, the TPP, the fact that Hillary had "no plan to deal with climate change," accusations that she secretly traded arms to countries that donated to Clinton foundation (it's not secret if it's in the public record, dumbass), that she flip flopped on gay marriage and the Iraqi war, the fact that she was on the Walmart board, and that she and Bill had a history of "silencing victims."

Naturally some of this was outright false, some were based on half-truths and some (like Bill's accusers of rape/assault) had no specific examples, and none of them were sourced. Asked my friend if there was any evidence. He just said "It's all independently verifiable, that's not the same as no proof" but conceded and said he'd be "back in about an hour" (this was yesterday) Sure enough actually looking up any of this shit exposed most of it as false, another friend and I both did separate posts debunking or explaining every single item on the guy's list and I haven't heard anything back.

What kills me is being told "it's independently verifiable" and it's like, well clearly you didn't fucking independently verify any of it. You just saw a list of a guy talking shit about Hillary and assumed all of it had to be true because you're already predisposed to not liking her. Which is exactly what the original fucking post was about, that people delude themselves into giving Bernie some messianic status that they ignore the fact that he's flip flopped and lied too.

Hell that same friend defended stuff like his votes of gun control, immigration, the crime bill etc. was like "Yeah, well he voted for those things he didn't like because they also contained things he did like!" Hey look, political positions can be nuanced and couched in grey area! WHO WOULD HAVE FUCKING THOUGHT? But obviously we can't give that same benefit of the doubt to Hillary if she ever takes a bad vote.
 
New York is going to be the most crucial win state until the 19th, and then it'l be Pennsylvania on the 26th. Then I think no one will care about West Virginia or Oregon, it'll probably be all about California on June 7. On the Dem side anyway.

Indiana will probably be the most hard fought state on the Republican side in May. Sanders will spend $2 million on ads and hold 3 rallies every day and Clinton will be sleeping and relaxing with her 330 delegate lead.
She'll visit Indiana. Donnelly will fight for it, I think. She can come here and eviscerate Pence's new shitty abortion law and the RFRA bullshit from last year. It's also the only state that week.
 

Holmes

Member
She'll visit Indiana. Donnelly will fight for it, I think. She can come here and eviscerate Pence's new shitty abortion law and the RFRA bullshit from last year.
She'll make a token effort, just like in Arizona. She'll probably rely more on surrogates in the state just like she did in Arizona.
 
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