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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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What the shit. Yesterday, it was in the mid 50's or so, clear weather, not bad. I have a nice long Warhawk session, and start catching up on PoliGAF in the evening. During this, a big fuckball of lake effect god damn SNOW hits Cleveland, and knocks out our power for seven hours. Today, it's all melted away and sunny again. In APRIL. This fuckin' town.




My wife wants us to leave town for the weekend, I'd personally rather stay here to make sure our house isn't broken into by roving mobs of Trump supporters.

Brah, I get you.

Yesterday we had sunshine, rain, thunder, and snow. Was a freaking Ohio weather day to be sure. I want to come up for the convention. Just to see the cluster fuck. Trying to talk my Berniebro into going. He said, and I quote "I'd rather get my toe nails ripped out by a rusty pair of pliers than be around that train wreck." :(
 

Makai

Member
Hillary also plans on increasing small business loans.

I actually owe the ACA for me going ahead with what I'm doing. If it weren't for the ACA, I wouldn't be able to take this (slight) risk. I'm still looking for an employee position, but I'm going to be working for myself doing QA work. I actually have work and everything. If I get the job with Apple, I can still do this on the side. The one time I take a risk and it kind of paid off. Thankfully, I don't have to worry about losing my health insurance. If I did, I wouldn't have been able to try.
Not on her website, so I can only assume deregulation is a bigger priority ;)
 
Not on her website, so I can only assume deregulation is a bigger priority ;)

It's the very first point on her Small Business page, which then links to The Briefing which goes into more detail:

The Briefing on Small Business

Unlocking access to capital. Hillary is committed to giving small businesses—and in particular, women- and minority-owned small businesses—access to the financing they need to build, grow, and hire. She will ease unnecessary regulatory burdens on community banks, which provide credit to small business owners and families looking to invest in their futures. She will support innovative new financing modes like impact investing. And she will double support for community development financial institutions and the successful State Small Business Credit Initiative, which offer crucial sources of support for small businesses across the country—particularly in underserved communities.

Invest $25 billion to support small business and increase private investment. Small businesses create two-thirds of new American jobs, fuel innovation, and offer a crucial ladder to prosperity for hardworking entrepreneurs all across the country. But the opportunity to thrive as a small business owner is not equally open to all Americans. For example, African Americans, Latinos, and women tend to begin their businesses with about half the capital of white men—with this difference in capital actually widening as their businesses mature. Clinton wants to be the small business President for all She will fight to ensure that local small businesses can spark job creation in America’s low-income and undeserved communities. Clinton will:

Provide incubators, mentoring, and training to 50,000 entrepreneurs and small business owners in underserved communities. It’s far too hard for entrepreneurs in underserved communities—particularly minority and women entrepreneurs—to access the financing, training, and support networks they need to start and grow their businesses. Clinton will work to expand training programs for entrepreneurship, business skills, and certificate programs through partnerships with local business leaders, community colleges, Historically Black Colleges and Universities, and Hispanic Serving Institutions. She will support more business incubators in underserved areas and call on leaders in Silicon Valley and elsewhere to support new entrepreneurial talent throughout our nation. She will encourage banks, businesses, and foundations to match capital and financing to those who have successfully gone through training and incubation programs. And she will work to support the development of entrepreneurial skills among young people—even kids in high school—so they can increase both their financial and entrepreneurial literacy. These programs will help those with good ideas today become the entrepreneurs and business leaders of tomorrow.

Expand and make permanent the New Markets Tax Credit. The New Markets Tax Credit (NMTC) has helped to attract more than $60 billion in private investment in communities with high rates of poverty and unemployment since it was implemented during the Clinton Administration. In Sumter, South Carolina, for example, the NMTC is supporting a new manufacturing plant that will bring 1,600 new jobs. Clinton is committed to making the NMTC permanent, doubling the amount of credits available to low-income communities, and adding new credits for communities hardest hit by decline. These enhancements to the NMTC will encourage greater investment into communities that need it most.

Expand federal funding for small businesses through the Community Development Financial Institutions Fund. Community development financial institutions (CDFIs) are delivering between 65 and 90 percent of loan volume to historically underserved groups, like low-income and minority borrowers. Clinton will double Treasury’s CDFI Fund to invest in small business growth and expand funding for CDFI partnerships with responsible online and alternative lenders. This would enable the federal government to reach more small business owners and entrepreneurs who traditionally struggle with raising capital from traditional financial institutions.
Expand federal funding for small businesses through the State Small Business Credit Initiative. The Small Business Jobs Act in 2010 created the State Small Business Credit Initiative (SSBCI), providing $1.5 billion to new and existing state programs that support private-sector lending to, and investment in, small businesses and manufacturers. To be eligible for funds, a state must demonstrate a reasonable expectation it would be able to leverage each dollar from the federal government to generate $10 in new small business lending or investing. Clinton will double funding for the SSBCI and expand it to include training and counseling programs that focus on minority- and women-owned small businesses.

Enforce the Community Reinvestment Act to ensure that large banks serve small businesses in hard-hit and underserved communities. Clinton will work to enforce the Community Reinvestment Act to ensure that large and regional banks are serving small business customers, including small businesses in low-income and minority communities.

Building on the above proposals, Clinton will put forward a comprehensive small business agenda during this campaign. Her agenda will include bold measures to provide tax relief and simplification, cut red tape, increase access to capital, open up new markets, and ensure equal opportunity for women and minority small business owners.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Not on her website, so I can only assume deregulation is a bigger priority ;)

To be fair, it is a bit of an issue. There's this fantastic book about a crackhouse and the guy that runs it decides he wants to go straight, and the ethnographer studying him totally thinks he can do it. He's got all the skills needed to run a bodega, he's even got the location. The guy's able to navigate literally everything but the government paperwork and winds up failing as a result.
 

Diablos

Member
What the shit. Yesterday, it was in the mid 50's or so, clear weather, not bad. I have a nice long Warhawk session, and start catching up on PoliGAF in the evening. During this, a big fuckball of lake effect god damn SNOW hits Cleveland, and knocks out our power for seven hours. Today, it's all melted away and sunny again. In APRIL. This fuckin' town.
Same thing happened here in Pittsburgh. It's killing my joints. I didn't lose any power though.
 
To be clear, I don't think Bernie's plan is bad. I don't really have any intention of starting a small business, so I haven't really done a ton of research into it. Although, I guess as an independent contractor....well, whatever. Either is fine with me on this issue.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Bernie wants to regulate the interest rate of all small business loans to match the federal funds rate - a lot more hardcore.

What happens to loans that default?
 
Bernie wants to regulate the interest rate of all small business loans to match the federal funds rate - a lot more hardcore.

I will defer to you on that then as I know very little about it. It's not even close to anything I am educated enough to have an opinion on.
 

Makai

Member
To be fair, it is a bit of an issue. There's this fantastic book about a crackhouse and the guy that runs it decides he wants to go straight, and the ethnographer studying him totally thinks he can do it. He's got all the skills needed to run a bodega, he's even got the location. The guy's able to navigate literally everything but the government paperwork and winds up failing as a result.
Couldn't afford a lawyer to fill out the paperwork? As far as I know, those licences are mostly at the state and local level - I hope cutting red tape isn't curtailing state laws.
 
It would literally undermine everything his campaign is about. "The Issues"

Which is why some people think his attack on the transcripts was a reversal of that
 
Also I've seen this from a lot of Bernie supporters lately. This sentiment that "If we ran the primaries over, he might have won."

Okay, so? Perhaps the same thing would have happened with Ted Kennedy. We'll never know and it's irrelevant.
 
A little bit of revisionist history from their campaign in this article.

Not just that. This is a postmortem on something that's only 3/4s dead. Why did they go on record with this? It makes zero sense, politically. Let the NYT do what thy want, but don't freaking admit that you have no (or very limited) appeal with AA voters. Come on.
 

Bowdz

Member
Also I've seen this from a lot of Bernie supporters lately. This sentiment that "If we ran the primaries over, he might have won."

Okay, so? Perhaps the same thing would have happened with Ted Kennedy. We'll never know and it's irrelevant.

Hey, if I was 10 years older, had decided to run for the Democratic nomination, and had swept every state thus far, I'd be the front runner for the party. It's just that simple really.
 

royalan

Member
I actually like Bernie's small business plan - offer low interest loans. Capital is definitely the biggest hurdle for starting out. Much better than Hillary's plan, which is the usual centrist stuff.

https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/small-business/

I have to completely disagree.

I don't own my own business, but I'm my boss' second in command, and from what my boss has told me, and what I've experienced working for him, the most frustrating part of operating and growing a business is permits. Everything requires a permit, and all of this requires an extraordinary amount of paperwork, time, and money. And a lot of it feels so damn unnecessary.

Starting out really doesn't require that much capital, depending on what you're trying to do. But getting everything squared away with the city before you can even begin to do anything? That can be a pain, AND it can cost a lot money.

Hillary's right on with cutting red tape.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Yeah, somewhere along the line permitting ended up being more about a tax source than about public safety.

If it's about record keeping, then a simple no-cost online application should suffice for much of the current bullshit.

Of course the comments are full of people angry that the article didn't mention how Bernie has now "won" Nevada.

By what metric did he win? I'm so confused by that line of BS moreso than a lot of the delusion coming from his supporters.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Still in disbelief Kasich is still in the race

He's in it until the convention, which is increasingly likely to be a contested one where they screw trump out of the nomination.

They'll probably go with Cruz in that case but there's still a chance they go with Kasich instead.
 

Makai

Member
I have to completely disagree.

I don't own my own business, but I'm my boss' second in command, and from what my boss has told me, and what I've experienced working for him, the most frustrating part of operating and growing a business is permits. Everything requires a permit, and all of this requires an extraordinary amount of paperwork, time, and money. And a lot of it feels so damn unnecessary.

Starting out really doesn't require that much capital, depending on what you're trying to do. But getting everything squared away with the city before you can even begin to do anything? That can be a pain, AND it can cost a lot money.

Hillary's right on with cutting red tape.
But that's the city, right? What's the President of the United States going to do about it other than invalidate local laws? Seems like bad policy to use federalism to override local regulations.
 

Ecotic

Member
Not just that.

Kasich stayed in longer than Jeb!, Marco, and pretty much every other Establishment.

If you would've told me that Kasich would last all the way until April last August I would've laughed in your face.

Well your August self would probably be laughing at the idea that Kasich still being in the race means he's either on track for the nomination, or locked in a fierce fight for it. So you wouldn't have been wrong. It's easy to still be in the race when you just refuse to say you've lost.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
So on my break from actually doing work, I'm going to be doing a guide on where the best places to donate your $ would be if you're looking at downballot races. Going to spend the next few weeks putting it together as primaries happen.
 

hawk2025

Member
awesome article that i ain't subbing to FT to read


Well, shit. Here's two select quotes!

But then how could the situation be otherwise? If any media outlet criticises a political position that you personally admire, there is a contradiction to be resolved, and an easy way to explain the disagreement is to conclude either that the media are biased, or that you are. You can guess which choice people instinctively make. Small wonder that careful studies of media bias in the US show that most newspapers and radio or TV stations don’t try to persuade their readers and viewers; instead, they pander to the biases of their audience.

It is hard to combat naive realism because the illusion that we see the world objectively is such a powerful one. At least I’ve not had to worry about it too much myself. Fortunately, my own perspective is based on a careful analysis of the facts, and my political views reflect a cool assessment of reality rather than self-interest, groupthink or cultural bias. Of course, there are people to the left of my position. They’re idiots. And the people on my right? Maniacs.


This is one of (the best, IMO) the studies of media bias he's referencing, by the way:

http://web.stanford.edu/~gentzkow/research/BiasReputation.pdf
 

Holmes

Member
He retroactively won the nomination. 😢

Anyway, early voting in Wisconsin is favoring Sanders i52% vs 39%, according to Emerson latest poll
Isn't that a poll that has Clinton up in the state? Anyway I think Wisconsin will be decided by 2% no matter who wins.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
So, question: Has there even been a study in why the Montana Democratic Party does so well? Yes, its state house and senate are Republican controlled, but 6 of the 9 statewide offices in the state are Democrats.

EDIT: Also they're only 4 seats away from sharing a majority in the state senate.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
So, question: Has there even been a study in why the Montana Democratic Party does so well? Yes, its state house and senate are Republican controlled, but 6 of the 9 statewide offices in the state are Democrats.

EDIT: Also they're only 4 seats away from sharing a majority in the state senate.

Are they moderate dems? Either way, perhaps their tactics need to be examined more closely.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Are they moderate dems? Either way, perhaps their tactics need to be examined more closely.

It's fascinating! They also have independent redistricting for their state houses:

Montana is home to one at-large congressional district, making congressional redistricting unnecessary. An independent commission draws state legislative district boundaries. This commission comprises five members. The majority and minority leaders of each chamber of the state legislature select one member a piece. These four members then select a fifth to serve as the commission's chair. If the first four commissioners are unable to agree on an appointment, the Montana Supreme Court may select the fifth member.[14]
 
Trump would have filled the place with protesters, so yes, you're correct! That venue is next to campus downtown here. The nearest Trump supporter is probably a solid 15 minute drive away out in the suburbs. I want to think we could have made the Chicago disaster look like a hug-in. We have a reputation to uphold! That venue is for ~15,000, which is a big ask, even if it is literally across the street from gigantic dorms. Hell, I didn't even know he was here, so it must have been short notice, too.

We get pumped for the GE, though! For a generic reference, Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004 drew 50,000++, both on workday afternoons, both on <2 days notice. A big rally here with Clinton and Feingold this fall would draw at least that. It probably won't happen since we're hardly a Presidential swing state anymore (and the Senate seat is as close to a certain pickup as it gets) and I'd say an afternoon would be better spent in battleground state college town, but hey I wouldn't complain.
 

Maledict

Member
Sander's is going to win Winsconsin by a fair amount, it's not going to be close. The demographics and make up if the state are too much in his favour.

The Nevada situation is sickening to be honest. It's a demonstration of how corrupt and I democratic caucuss are. The Sander's campaign is proud of literally stealing an election from the majority of people who participated.

What a revolution.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Sander's is going to win Winsconsin by a fair amount, it's not going to be close. The demographics and make up if the state are too much in his favour.

The Nevada situation is sickening to be honest. It's a demonstration of how corrupt and I democratic caucuss are. The Sander's campaign is proud of literally stealing an election from the majority of people who participated.

What a revolution.

Can't this still change at the state convention? I think people care too much about 2 national delegates, less than 1% of Hillary's lead. Caucuses are truly the worst and it is telling that only the worst candidate, Bernie Sanders, wins them with regularity.

edit: Also lol Melkr_ with receipts for Emerson. Guess Hillary is up 50% in ny.
 

alternade

Member
Is there anything to this Occupy CNN/Democracy Spring protest? From what I can gather its a very pro Sanders rally. Something about CNN giving him a media blackout?
 
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