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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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G

Grexeno

Member
Daily News: Can I just get a quick parochial question in about New York that will fall into your lap?

Clinton: About a what deal?

Daily News: A parochial--

Clinton: A parochial. Okay, I thought you said pieroga, which is a Polish...
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LMFAO

EDIT: IVYSAURRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Metaphoreus said:
Well, he isn't wrong.

EDIT: As far as the Constitution is concerned, at least. As to the political question of whether inaction is a wise course, I don't really know.
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I'm not arguing about constitutionality, I'm talking specifically about how this is a bad political arguments for Grassley and Senate Republicans.
 
C

CCS

Banned
I suggest all candidates be asked about their favourite parts of Eastern European cuisine. Anyone who says Souvlaki has my vote.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
"I think Sen. Sanders is going to do very very well here. It's possible he could win, but we don't need to win, to win," Weaver told CNN's Chris Cuomo on "New Day."
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I want to see their internals. Cause, we went from OMG WE GONNA WIN! to "We don't have to win to win."

Running on that Rubio strategy, I see. Get it gurl.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
adam387 said:
I want to see their internals. Cause, we went from OMG WE GONNA WIN! to "We don't have to win to win."

Running on that Rubio strategy, I see. Get it gurl.
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40% "credibility threshold." Anything less than matching Bernie's performance in Vermont is a disappointment for Hillary. New York isn't necessary to win.

Frankly, I find all of this even more telling than the public polls.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
hillary.jpg


I WANT DUMPLINGS!

This gets me and I don't know why.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Box of Kittens said:
40% "credibility threshold." Anything less than matching Bernie's performance in Vermont is a disappointment for Hillary. New York isn't necessary to win.

Frankly, I find all of this even more telling than the public polls.
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Which is why I figure their internals are around 30-ish.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
hawk2025 said:
Y'all are setting yourselves up for disappointment again with this internals talk.
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Well, I've consistently said I think that it'll be close in New York because I won't count my chickens before they hatched.

However, Bernie's campaign has been back peddling hard as hell over it the last few days. When we add that to the Vatican thing, I think it's a fairly safe assumption that things aren't rosy.

I still don't think she wins by more than 10ish.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Frankly, Bernie can't even afford a close loss in New York. However, I don't see how you look at the actions of the Sanders campaign right now and don't come to the conclusion that their internals have them far behind.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Loudninja said:
I be glad when we can stop talking about NY man seems like its been too long.
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Then its just going to be weeks of California talk. Trump needs to say or do something dumb already, I'm bored. I've grown to expect a certain amount of fuckery from him and he's not living up to the high fuckery standards he's set in the past.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
B-Dubs said:
Then its just going to be weeks of California talk. Trump needs to say or do something dumb already, I'm bored. I've grown to expect a certain amount of fuckery from him and he's not living up to the high fuckery standards he's set in the past.
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There's a lot of states between then and California but it will be in the back of mind for sure
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Prominent conservatives are lobbying Donald Trump to say that he will nominate Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) to the Supreme Court if he’s elected president.
And Trump’s main rival for the nomination, Ted Cruz, has already said he’d consider his best friend in the Senate for the seat that opened with Antonin Scalia’s death. […]

Key Senate Republicans said privately that they would probably wind up invoking the nuclear option for Supreme Court nominees if their party manages to both win the White House and hold the Senate majority in November.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-top-table-main_daily202-915am:homepage/story


OH MY GOD PLEASE CAMPAIGN ON THIS DEMOCRATS. PLEASE.
 
T

Tom_Cody

Member
Chezzymann said:
So Colorado just didn't have a primary and gave the delegates to Cruz since they knew trump would win if people actually voted? Fuck this. I hate trump but I'm starting to kind of legitimatley root for him cause of all this party fuckery.
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It's not like the decision was made last week, lol. Trump simply got out-organized. That he's crying foul now after the fact is absolutely absurd.

Maddow had a great segment on this.
https://twitter.com/jacobsoboroff/status/718744407025946625
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn Apr 10
Pretty sure that Clinton's popular vote margin in Florida alone (add + VA/OH if not) is enough to swamp Sanders' margin in all of his states

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn Apr 10
But maybe FL doesn't count idk
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L OH FREAKING L
 
F

Fuchsdh

Member
ivysaur12 said:
My industry is fine. For now. I think.

Ugh.
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Mine's fine too, insofar as you can already cobble together an animation now for cheap using templates and farmed-out services, and people are still paying for something bespoke. The margins you can charge might erode, but I don't see any machine learning system being flexible enough and cheap enough to replace what I do any time soon (and you've got to replace the voiceover too.)

I do think people underestimate the impact of "but a person didn't do it" as a roadblock in front of creative replacement. You can get a robot to produce AP news bulletins because it's a dumb machinelike format in the first place, and because people have collectively decided they don't care about written news.
 
Metaphoreus

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
ivysaur12 said:
It's not "we'll see". We already know it's dangerous politics.
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But dangerous doesn't mean wrong, even strategically. We'll know in November if those opinion polls pan out and if it matters for Republican control of the House and Senate.

NSQuote said:
I think it's happening too - Trump is falling behind his projections that already fell short of 1237 and has so far continued to fuck up delegate matters before whining to Twitter about how unfair it is. He seems to be in an awkward defense mode, and I don't think he'll make up more ground.
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This has been hilarious to watch. At this point he's like the Wizard of Oz after the curtain has been pulled back: "Pay no mind to my incompetent campaign organization. I'm a winner! A winner I tell you!"
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Metaphoreus said:
But dangerous doesn't mean wrong, even strategically. We'll know in November if those opinion polls pan out and if it matters for Republican control of the House and Senate.
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Let me rephrase -- it's probably a really bad idea. It won't matter nearly as much with Cruz or Trump at the top of the ticket, but it certainly won't help if a Kelly Ayotte is desperately trying to distance herself from a candidate Cruz. I would advise every Senator to start hearing per usual, and then vote how they want. If they want to vote down Garland, at least it looks like they went through the normal motions that the public expects and won't be hit with ads saying they're obstructionist and DC as usual.

I don't know how anyone could think that this is a net positive for senators in danger of losing their seat.
 
G

gcubed

Member
B-Dubs said:
Then its just going to be weeks of California talk. Trump needs to say or do something dumb already, I'm bored. I've grown to expect a certain amount of fuckery from him and he's not living up to the high fuckery standards he's set in the past.
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If he loses by 15 in NY, and follows that with PA, MD, DE, etc wins, you think the media will be buying the "it's all about CA!" narrative?

They are barely buying the current one. If she does what is expected over the next few contests the media will kill him
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Amir0x said:
Bernie really surging. His strategy is working. Once he visits upstate Vatican, New York, he got this in the bag.
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IDK

I think the Vatican is in the south. I mean, it's south of Vermont....that's old confederacy, right?

Marist guy just called Bernie "Barry" Hehehehehehe.
 
J

jtb

Banned
If Trump wins a plurality, but not a majority, of votes and/or delegates in the GOP race and he doesn't get the nomination -- that would be even more destructive to the party than just nominating Trump imo. I remember Lindsey Graham saying something to similar effect when David Axelrod interviewed him.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
pigeon said:
I think the question of how much force is appropriate for America to use is a deeply difficult one, although I'm glad it's being discussed in the thread again.

One of the big difficulties I have trying to formulate a position on the issue is that every action appears to be wrong. Clearly not intervening in Rwanda was wrong. Clearly invading Iraq was wrong. Clearly not supporting Egypt sufficiently was wrong. Clearly our multilateral, European-proposed intervention in Libya was wrong, and clearly both suggesting intervention in Syria and not suggesting intervention in Syria seem to be wrong.

If your goal is to prevent loss of life and genocide, it's not clear that it is actually possible for any action the United States can take to bring that goal about. (Although apparently our engagement in Serbia way back in the day was totally appropriate, which just makes things harder.)

Basically, after Libya's failure, it's very hard for me to envision a situation where I could confidently say an American intervention would be a good idea. Libya had all the factors that we talk about wanting to justify an intervention -- genocide in progress, multilateral alliance, UN/NATO support, unelected government to depose, existing regional powers to take over. It still didn't work out! So what was the missing piece that WOULD have made that intervention have good results?
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Another mod (whom I respect very much) essentially drew the line at genocide being underway or about to take place, as warranting the intervention of the international community. But a non-systemic mass murder would not necessarily warrant action. I'm not sure I fully agreed. Although my view is there are other levers of power that can sometimes be used in lieu.

The problem I find is that people who are critical of current or past policy aren't actually readily willing or able to articulate their own views on when the use of force to intervene in sovereign territories is sufficiently justified. If ever.

"I'm for peace." Cool bananas. What does that even mean. So am I, that's a platitude not a policy position.
 
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