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[User 85168]

NPR Politics had a podcast about the GOP contested convention. They interviewed Benjamin Ginsberg, a bigshot RNC lawyer. Some takeaways from me:

1. The nominee-must've-won-8-states rule can be thrown out before the convention.

2. Delegates have an impact (make up a part of?) on the rules committee.

3. In Michigan, Trump and Kasich campaigns worked together to pull something similar to what Cruz did in Colorado.

4. Technically the rules committee could lower the delegate requirement from majority to plurality. Basically, they can do whatever they want, they're the rules committee after all. There's even a clause for them to suspend the rules after ballots and implement a new set of rules.

5. Ford gave rides on Air Force One and invitations to State Dinners to convince delegates during the last contested convention.

6. Ginsberg considers offers of travel, meals, expenses, and etc to unbound delegates probable. Straight up money and federal positions are likely legally dubious and up for challenges. I bring this up because I think I remember seeing someone in here ask, "Why doesn't Donald Trump just pay unbound delegates to vote for him?".

 

[B-Dubs]

Any idea when Siena is due?

 

[Abinash117]

Still...one week...to go....

Just keep phonebanking.

I don't see why Hillary wouldn't get 30+ in her home state.

 

[CCS]

Still...one week...to go....

I'm sorry Melkr. I want Clinton to win, but I feel bad for the vast majority of Sanders supporters who aren't tossers. Whatever I've said, Sanders is a good man and he has good intentions.

 

[Macho Madness]

Marist also shows that Trump and Cruz are just as shitty general election candidates in NY

also

 

[User 463088]

Still...one week...to go....

I've been there brah.

: bro hug :

 

[Holmes]

New York will be between 58-42 to 60-40. Honestly I'm more looking forward to another primary night because Wisconsin already feels forever ago and New York isn't for another week.

 

[B-Dubs]

Marist also shows that Trump and Cruz are just as shitty general election candidates in NY

also

It really is going to be a shitshow. I cannot wait.

 

[hawk2025]

Heh, good point by Wolf Blitzer (for once?):

If Trump is so good at making the deal and running a tight ship, how could he completely miss the Colorado situation like that? How does that translate to running the country as a whole?

LOL they are doubling down on the Gestapo tactics comment

 

[Suikoguy]

Sad part is all the money Sanders will raised on the 20th

I'm having a difficult time which is pissing me off more at this point. Sanders continued tinker bell fundraising, which very well may cause disaffected voters. Or him providing ready made Republican attack ads.

 

[User 463088]

I'm having a difficult time which is pissing me off more at this point. Sanders continued tinker bell fundraising, which very well may cause disaffected voters. Or him providing ready made Republican attack ads.

That's what got me most about the unqualified and lacks judgement thing. That shit is out there, now, and the GOP can totally pull them and make ads. We know they will! He can stay in, but he needs to freaking not throw shade and shit.

 

[hawk2025]

For every ready-made republican ads this may generate, the democrats probably already have 20 lined up by this point.



...And then you add a contested convention.

It will be fine!

 

[Metaphoreus]

If Trump wins a plurality, but not a majority, of votes and/or delegates in the GOP race and he doesn't get the nomination -- that would be even more destructive to the party than just nominating Trump imo. I remember Lindsey Graham saying something to similar effect when David Axelrod interviewed him.

I don't think anything could be more destructive to the Republican party than nominating Donald Trump. That's a stench that's hard to take off. It's shameful enough that he's made it as far as he has.

 

[Macho Madness]

That puts the RCP aggregate (which finally kicked out that awful Emerson poll) at Clinton +14

 

[hawk2025]

I will believe in +1 and be surprised at anything else.


Managing dem expectations.

 

[User 463088]

There's a law on Ohio's books that says that if a candidate at a convention offers " any money, office, position, place or employment, influence, or any other valuable consideration to or for a delegate, elector, or other person..." they commit a 4th degree felony.

Heheheheheheehehehehe.

 

[Aaron Strife]

If Trump wins a plurality, but not a majority, of votes and/or delegates in the GOP race and he doesn't get the nomination -- that would be even more destructive to the party than just nominating Trump imo. I remember Lindsey Graham saying something to similar effect when David Axelrod interviewed him.

Absolutely true.

Not only is Cruz really not that much better than Trump (if at all) now you'll have half of the GOP base feeling like they were robbed and rightfully so.

Dunno if he'd actually go through with a third party bus but that's certainly a possibility too.

Sabato said Cruz could firm up AZ/GA/MO but frankly I don't see how. Trump won those states. For every swingy Hillary-over-Trump voter who thinks Cruz might not be so bad, there will be just as many disgruntled Republicans who just sit it out.

 

[And_Gignac]

I'm sorry Melkr. I want Clinton to win, but I feel bad for the vast majority of Sanders supporters who aren't tossers. Whatever I've said, Sanders is a good man and he has good intentions.

I think even hard headed Sanderistas will see the writing on the wall after New York. Or so I hope.
I had made my peace with him losing the nomination after Nevada. He just had to keep winning states to raise fake hopes.

I am gonna be Yaaas queen-ing in November I guess.

 

[User 463088]

I had made my peace with him losing the nomination after Nevada. He just had to keep winning states to raise fake hopes.

I am gonna be Yaaas queen-ing in November I guess.

One of us. One of us. One of us.

WERK!
FUCK!
QUEEN!

 

[Cybit]

Another mod (whom I respect very much) essentially drew the line at genocide being underway or about to take place, as warranting the intervention of the international community. But a non-systemic mass murder would not necessarily warrant action. I'm not sure I fully agreed. Although my view is there are other levers of power that can sometimes be used in lieu.

The problem I find is that people who are critical of current or past policy aren't actually readily willing or able to articulate their own views on when the use of force to intervene in sovereign territories is sufficiently justified. If ever.

"I'm for peace." Cool bananas. What does that even mean. So am I, that's a platitude not a policy position.

I think that's a pretty good line - gov't targeted or genocide or something like Boko Haram even perhaps. The real issue isn't whether we should intervene, it's how often we have zero freaking plans for what the hell to do after the fact. <stares at Clinton>.

 

[TyrantII]

NPR Politics had a podcast about the GOP contested convention. They interviewed Benjamin Ginsberg, a bigshot RNC lawyer. Some takeaways from me:

1. The nominee-must've-won-8-states rule can be thrown out before the convention.

2. Delegates have an impact (make up a part of?) on the rules committee.

3. In Michigan, Trump and Kasich campaigns worked together to pull something similar to what Cruz did in Colorado.

4. Technically the rules committee could lower the delegate requirement from majority to plurality. Basically, they can do whatever they want. There's even a clause for them to suspend the rules after ballots and implement a new set of rules.

5. Ford gave rides on Air Force One and invitations to State Dinners to convince delegates during the last contested convention.

6. Ginsberg considers offers of travel, meals, expenses, and etc to unbound delegates probable. Straight up money and federal positions are likely legally dubious and up for challenges. I bring this up because I think I remember seeing someone in here ask, "Why doesn't Donald Trump just pay unbound delegates to vote for him?".

Yes, the rules comitte can change the rules. They're also there to set the party platform.

Not really news.

Good luck though. You can change the rules, but there is always the problem of legitimacy. You change the rules to install who the party elite wants, you still need a legitimate candidate for the base to turn up in Nov where it is not a party controlled affair.

 

[CCS]

I had made my peace with him losing the nomination after Nevada. He just had to keep winning states to raise fake hopes.

I am gonna be Yaaas queen-ing in November I guess.

Join us! She's really not that bad I promise.

One day a Sanders-like politician will win. But not just yet.

 

[Cybit]

I'm having a difficult time which is pissing me off more at this point. Sanders continued tinker bell fundraising, which very well may cause disaffected voters. Or him providing ready made Republican attack ads.

You guys do realize all of the money he raises will go to the Dem Party afterward, right? There are pretty strict laws about what you can do with that money, especially considering that it wasn't raised by a PAC. Unless Bernie decides he needs all that money to run for re-election in the Senate (which he won't); the money will go to either charity or the Democratic Party (since by entering the Democratic Primary, his designated party is now Democrat), assuming he just doesn't return it outright.

Can someone explain to me why this keeps getting brought up?

 

[NihonTiger90]

There's a law on Ohio's books that says that if a candidate at a convention offers " any money, office, position, place or employment, influence, or any other valuable consideration to or for a delegate, elector, or other person..." they commit a 4th degree felony.

Heheheheheheehehehehe.

Ohio Revised Code 3599.01 - Bribery, for those who'd like to look it up.

There's questions about whether it would actually be enforced for low level stuff like travel or meals, though.

 

[User 406]

I'm fine with talk about California for like a month because I live here.

Bernie Sanders Will Win California and the Nomination Because Holmes' Vote Won't Count. Here's Why.
Holmes' Missteps Will Drive California Voters Away From Hillary Clinton, Clinching Bernie Sanders as Our 45th President.
Holmes, and Three Other Factors You Haven't Heard of Ruin Hillary Clinton's Chances and Guarantee Bernie Sanders' Nomination.
Hillary Clinton's Inevitability Myth Shattered by the Presence of a Huge Stumbling Block: Holmes.
Public Reaction to Holmes Renders Entire California Delegate Contest Irrelevant, Bernie Sanders Certain to Win.

The problem I find is that people who are critical of current or past policy aren't actually readily willing or able to articulate their own views on when the use of force to intervene in sovereign territories is sufficiently justified. If ever.

I find myself unable to articulate a hard rule, to be honest. Every situation is different, and foreign policy is the arena where nobody can truly control or even predict outcomes. The best we got are good intentions and our most educated guess at the time. If we could come up with a hard rule about military intervention that consistently worked out for the best, then shit, I'd believe libertarianism could work too. Dogma just can't survive the crucible of the real world.

 

[Holmes]

There's a law on Ohio's books that says that if a candidate at a convention offers " any money, office, position, place or employment, influence, or any other valuable consideration to or for a delegate, elector, or other person..." they commit a 4th degree felony.

Heheheheheheehehehehe.

This is an Ohio law? So does it only apply to Ohio state conventions?

 

[shinra-bansho]

That's assuming there's much money left. Because it seems pretty easy to burn through really.

Also, I thought he could set up a NFP/charity or convert his committee into a PAC.

RE: The day after. Yes, it's often not a significant forethought. Or alternatively if it is, it often doesn't consider the worst case sufficiently.

The issue often isn't "what after" though. It's just "whether." And the answer seems to be "never" from reading conversations. Until pressed further.
What if genocide? Okay, maybe then. What if mass murder of civilians? Okay, maybe then. What if invasion of allied soil? Well, maybe then. What if covert annexing of territory (hi Russia)? Dunno.

Foreign policy is complicated. Ridiculously complicated. Boiling it down to single words or slogans is kind of pointless.

 

[Holmes]

I think even hard headed Sanderistas will see the writing on the wall after New York. Or so I hope.
I had made my peace with him losing the nomination after Nevada. He just had to keep winning states to raise fake hopes.

I am gonna be Yaaas queen-ing in November I guess.

You can Yaaas queen for Clinton in November but in 2024 we can Yaaas queen for Harris together.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

I don't think anything could be more destructive to the Republican party than nominating Donald Trump. That's a stench that's hard to take off. It's shameful enough that he's made it as far as he has.

Stealing it from him without making damn sure he stays gone is just going to end up like 2012; you'll push off the inevitable rebuke of the Southern Strategy even further. At some point, the GOP has got to eat that bullet and take their thumping with a white nationalist. Prove that such a candidate isn't actually what the American people want (thus shattering the perception of the country that Tea Partiers have), and then get back on track.

If they don't let Trump/Cruz get blown out in November, they'll be right back here in 2020 with a candidate taking 40% of the votes, shouting, "You know why we lost those elections? We didn't run a real conservative.&#8482;"

 

[Suikoguy]

I don't think anything could be more destructive to the Republican party than nominating Donald Trump. That's a stench that's hard to take off. It's shameful enough that he's made it as far as he has.

Every time I look at the issue, i'm less sure what is a good path for that party to move forward with.

I think it comes down to what they want:

1.) Want to keep the party together:
Nominate trump if he has the most delegates. Hope the voters realize after a devastating loss that that strategy won't work.

2.) Want to more subtly guide the party:
Cruz. Will still very likely lose, but they can say "Look, Cruz had no appeal to moderates, we need to make some changes"

3.) Want to reboot the party:
Someone center right.

Ideally, if they could guarantee the party would not fracture into 2 parties, option 3 is the best. But that's a huge risk. Option 1 I think may be the safest bet, since you stick with the will of the people, and hope they learn from it. I'm not sure the stench from Trump will do damage to the point where a good Candidate would lose in 2024. Would make 2020 really difficult.

 

[Holmes]

Bernie Sanders Will Win California and the Nomination Because Holmes' Vote Won't Count. Here's Why.

lol my vote wouldn't count because I'm only a permanent resident, not a citizen, so it would be literal voter fraud if I were to vote.

Spoiler

But my husband is letting me fill in the bubble for Clinton on his ballot for the general.

 

[Macho Madness]

lol my vote wouldn't count because I'm only a permanent resident, not a citizen, so it would be literal voter fraud if I were to vote.

Will you ever get citizenship?

 

[ivysaur12]

Join us, Melkr.

 

[hawk2025]

Citizenship takes anywhere between 3 and 10 years after the Green Card right now, I think.

It will take me a while too.

 

[User 463088]

Here's an example of why Bernie is so damn wrong on his support for the PLCAA.

Company makes a Nintendo Glock

I know this isn't going to be mass produced, but let's say a company makes a gun \that looks like a toy and they market it as such. A kid picks it up and shoots themselves. The family may have no legal recourse against the manufacturer because of this shitty law.

Stupid. Stupid law.

 

[hawk2025]

Why are you trying to make my blood boil again by bringing up the PLCAA?

 

[Holmes]

Will you ever get citizenship?

Maybe. I don't know. I still have 4.5 years before I can even apply anyway.

 

[User 463088]

Why are you trying to make my blood boil again by bringing up the PLCAA?

Because that shit pisses me off, I feel the need to piss other people off too...


And, Holmes, yes, that is an Ohio Law. It may be technically illegal to have one candidate offer another a position, such as Secretary of State or Veep, in exchange for the support of their delegates.

 

[Cybit]

That's assuming there's much money left. Because it seems pretty easy to burn through really.

Also, I thought he could set up a NFP/charity or convert his committee into a PAC.

RE: The day after. Yes, it's often not a significant forethought. Or alternatively if it is, it often doesn't consider the worst case sufficiently.

If he keeps raising the amount of money he has been - his campaign isn't reporting debts and Sanders himself frankly isn't wealthy enough to do the "donate money to his own campaign" thing that usually leads to debt. That's usually what burns through the end of the money.

I do not believe he can donate it to a charity that he controls / works for, and I don't think Sanders would want to convert his committee to a PAC after railing on them for so long. Plus, the pressure from the Dem Party will be immense to move the money over to them; and it's pretty hard for me to believe he won't, seeing as pretty much all primary folks do (unless there was severe screwing of said person by party).

The day after tends to get also constrained by "We don't want to spend any more money, so we're getting the heck out" and we cover it by "letting them self-determine their future" or some other political BS. We have an aversion to the "you break it, you buy it" rule when it comes to interfering in other countries.

 

[Mrs. Manky]

ARGH

I don't care if it was a "bit". I don't care if DeBlasio has a black wife and kids.

YOU DON'T MAKE A CPT JOKE DAMMIT

Aaron Burr shoulda dropped'm like he did Alexander Hamilton.






(okay i'm not advocating violence against the Mayor of New York, whom i actually like. i'm just cringing and annoyed and typing like bell hooks.)

 

[ampere]

I don't think anything could be more destructive to the Republican party than nominating Donald Trump. That's a stench that's hard to take off. It's shameful enough that he's made it as far as he has.

Would you feel differently if it were Ted Cruz in first place? And if so, why

 

[Suikoguy]

Here's an example of why Bernie is so damn wrong on his support for the PLCAA.

Company makes a Nintendo Glock

I know this isn't going to be mass produced, but let's say a company makes a gun \that looks like a toy and they market it as such. A kid picks it up and shoots themselves. The family may have no legal recourse against the manufacturer because of this shitty law.

Stupid. Stupid law.

I still don't get the need for extra laws to protect them. The law already protects them to a great degree.

I'd like to see the opposing view, but the only argument I see is it increases their legal costs. Which, oh well. It's a cost of doing business in building and selling guns.

 

[User 406]

lol my vote wouldn't count because I'm only a permanent resident, not a citizen, so it would be literal voter fraud if I were to vote.

Spoiler

But my husband is letting me fill in the bubble for Clinton on his ballot for the general.

Well damn, now I feel all awkward. Maybe H.A. Goodman can write a piece on how my gaffe Just Cost Hillary Clinton the Nomination.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I don't think cash on hand has changed much since like late last year. Both he and Clinton have been running at like 100% burn. Although we'll see in a week or so what he has on hand.

 

[Box of Kittens]

I am gonna be Yaaas queen-ing in November I guess.

Speaking as an Obama '08 voter, you get used to it.

 

[ApharmdX]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-top-table-main_daily202-915am:homepage/story


OH MY GOD PLEASE CAMPAIGN ON THIS DEMOCRATS. PLEASE.

Who would think that Mike Lee would make a good Supreme Court justice? That's crazy town right there.

 

[Cybit]

I don't think cash on hand has changed much since like late last year. Both he and Clinton have been running at like 100% burn. Although we'll see in a week or so what he has on hand.

I imagine once Clinton wins NY that even the media will more or less turn completely to the GOP race. Sanders will go till California (which makes sense, because he's specifically a message candidate); but I think once NY ends that even the media will head towards covering the GOP insanity.

 

[ivysaur12]

So many things happening in the next week or so

CoroCoro leaks
Game of Thrones premiere
Khaleesi's return to New York City

 

[Black Mamba]

So many things happening in the next week or so

CoroCoro leaks
Game of Thrones premiere
Khaleesi's return to New York City

uhhh, Warriors winning 73 and Mamba retiring!?!?!?

 

[Macho Madness]

Bernie is winning upstate which I guess isn't that surprising:

NY Geographically:

NYC:
Clinton 58%
Sanders 39%

The suburbs:
Clinton 61%
Sanders 36%

Upstate NY:
Sanders 49%
Clinton 48%

@NBCNews/@WSJ