Macho Madness
Member
The only thing that would change is if he managed to win it by a margin of 5 or more. Anything else and it's status quo if we're being honest.
It would be a big blow to her and her campaign's image if she lost it though.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN
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The only thing that would change is if he managed to win it by a margin of 5 or more. Anything else and it's status quo if we're being honest.
It would be a big blow to her and her campaign's image if she lost it though.
Fair. Y'all have more or less ran all the Bernie folks out of the thread (except for masochists like me) on top of it, so not much discussion on that front either.
Well I'm glad you're still around. If Bernie dudes want to talk about shit that's cool. The only problem I've ever had, in other threads mind you, is people going "He's gonna win NY," then when asked to explain their thinking ignore me. I'm perfectly cool with discussing stuff and differing perspectives, hell I like being challenged, but it's a two way street.
The only thing surprising about this is that it was only $10k worth and not 20 or 30. They probably burned through all that in a week.
Which is basically where I am and more or less what I said last night.
RustyNails
Member
No, people here already did the math. Even if he wins by 10% he will still lose the game. He needs a blowout proportion, like 60- 35 or some shit.
Aaron Strife
Banned
If polling margins hold on NY, MD and PA Hillary would need to finish below viability in California (thus giving Bernie every single delegate) for Bernie to have a chance.
The fact that so many Bernie supporters are pinning their hopes and dreams on NY and CA is a little... Depressing to watch to be honest. Like "don't worry Kerry, the exits have you winning Ohio!" depressing.
No. And Yes.
VendettaRed07
Member
May is going to be a shitty, long, drawn out month.
Why couldn't Cali be sooner. This is going to be dragged out until then. fuck.
Why couldn't Cali be sooner. This is going to be dragged out until then. fuck.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Bernie winning NY would be a huge PR win but wouldn't change the delegate math much unless it was a huge win. Probably would need to win 60-40 for that to mean much.
That'd be a pretty big swing. Most polls show about 10% of the vote up for grabs, so he'd need all of that to go for him and then win over a bunch of Clinton's support.
I think Kosovo was definitely an effective intervention; even if it was chided at the time for being "purely aerial".
Heh - I've been pretty consistently on the "Bernie has pretty much no chance" train - but if I were in NY I'd still go vote for him. I think the message he brings is really important and is often ignored because of how this election is being fought. (Identity politics / demographics / baby's first use of data seem to be the theme this election). I'm watching what hyper-capitalism / corporatism does in India now; and the effects are...pretty brutal.
As for the 10k; most staffers make like zero money working for a campaign. Only the top end consultants get bank.
Yeah that seems pretty unlikely. Oh well, guess I should start accepting our new overlord early
How many delegates are at stake in NY and how many would sanders and Hillary get if Sanders wins idk 57-43 by a Christmas miracle that the pope got through?
There's like 220 regular delegates putting them apart right? Would such a win close the gap in like 30 or 40 or so?
There's like 220 regular delegates putting them apart right? Would such a win close the gap in like 30 or 40 or so?
Hard to pin on anything else when winning Wyoming doesn't even shortens the delegate gap. Speaking of which, saw Morning Joe hammering some DNC guys about how undemocratic the democratic primaries are. Dude was livid.
eBay Huckster
Member
random aside: Nancy Pelosi is speaking at Ohio State as part of the university's "Congressional Conversations" series next Friday and I'm definitely gonna try to attend that
RastaMentality
Banned
We're about to get our first and probably only ever contested convention and people are still discussing the dry ass, already concluded dem race.
We're lacking in Trump or general RNC fuckery.
Yea, India is pretty fucked up. While I'd like to think we wouldn't backslide into that again, there is an entire political party advocating for pre-Teddy Roosevelt America and that is scary. I do think Bernie's message is important, not all of it mind you, but a lot of it. I just think he's absolutely the wrong guy to be waving that flag.
Whoever tries to pick up his mantle and advocates social democracy next is going to need to be a policy wonk. Messaging isn't enough for something like that, they'll need to be able to outline the path and how to accomplish it.
Oh I know, I was just making a joke :lol
The delegate count was a wash in Wyoming because it's a tiny ass state with hardly anyone living there, so it's only worth 14 delegates.
Morning Joe's just salty the thing isn't going his way and the GOP's gonna lose in September again.
Hillary wins NY, Bernie will need such an absurd percentage of votes from the remaining races as to make it even more boring. I mean we already knew Hillary was the nominee like, I dunno, a month ago? So the change will be we know she is the nominee triply guaranteed
There's like a plane crash in the Republican primary, impossible to look away. And in the Democratic side, it's like waiting in line patiently behind a throng going up a reaaaally slow escalator.
There's like a plane crash in the Republican primary, impossible to look away. And in the Democratic side, it's like waiting in line patiently behind a throng going up a reaaaally slow escalator.
And_Gignac
Member
204.
If he wins New York, even by 1%, Clinton is done.
If he loses New York, even by 1%, Sanders is done.
theprodigy
Member
538's revised targets have Sanders needing to win NY by 4 points
if we completely ignore demographics of states and assume everything from here on out is uniform (lol), he would need to win by 13 points, because he needs about 56.5% or so of all remaining pledged delegates
so a decisive win, if it's not a one-off thing, could change the race, but that would require him to actually win New York first
superdeluxe
Member
Oh boy, everyone on my TL is sharing the Morning Joe bit about Sanders and delegates. I like how they keep on showing the graph 11 delegates for clinton vs 7 delegates. They just knew that would rile people up and they are right.
RustyNails
Member
Didn't you get the memo? Weaver said they have plan to win without NY. Checkmate.Hillary wins NY, Bernie will need such an absurd percentage of votes from the remaining races as to make it even more boring. I mean we already knew Hillary was the nominee like, I dunno, a month ago? So the change will be we know she is the nominee triply guaranteed
There's like a plane crash in the Republican primary, impossible to look away. And in the Democratic side, it's like waiting in line patiently behind a throng going up a reaaaally slow escalator.
TBH I feel like if Bernie had done this for some godawful reason we'd have already had a thread about it in OT and everyone in here would be screaming about it, but because Hillary did it's ok to ignore.
In the sense that the polls would be crazy off and/or that Sanders managed to erase a 10+ point lead that quickly - yes. The pressure on Clinton's campaign would be enormous (especially the media, as they are salivating over an actual race on the Dem side); and that kind of win + a California win would actually start to put pressure on the superdelegates to not have their thumbs on the scale quite as hard.
However, math-wise, Clinton's still going to be fine. But if Bernie gets within like 50 delegates from the state counts, then the Dems do have to worry about some inter-party issues.
Honestly, if she loses the state she was a freaking senator in and has unbelievably favorable demographics? She should probably fire her entire campaign staff out of shame and incompetence.
I'm guessing that's Wyoming including its superdelegates for reasons passing understanding?
Real talk, if you replaced Hillary with Bernie, I'd roll my eyes at such a thread.
Seriously, her campaign would have to be run by morons for that to even happen.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Very nicely put. I love Bernie Sanders in theory, but in practice he has way too many glaring flaws.
Veep is a more important TV show than The West Wing.
Is that the 1% sanders keeps yapping about?
They're talking about the super delegates undermining votes and say it's a rigged system. The DNC guys are like yeah but thems the rules because the 60's or something. The point about voter disenfranchisement is real (even if Bernie is losing in total votes in this case) and super delegates are pretty bs, but the graph can be misrepresentative. Winning by over 10 points and tying in delegates is also kinda dumb though even if 1 delegate is basically nothing.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I think the problem is that many of the Bernie supporters have very fanciful ideas of what's possible in this primary.Hillary wins NY, Bernie will need such an absurd percentage of votes from the remaining races as to make it even more boring. I mean we already knew Hillary was the nominee like, I dunno, a month ago? So the change will be we know she is the nominee triply guaranteed
There's like a plane crash in the Republican primary, impossible to look away. And in the Democratic side, it's like waiting in line patiently behind a throng going up a reaaaally slow escalator.
Or to be more generous, they have no restraint in conflating what's possible and what's plausible.
Went to a friend's bday and this briefly came up. Someone was complaining about how long the primary process takes and I said I'd prefer if the primary was held over just a single day. He said he thought that would just mean Bernie would have less of a chance. The birthday boy (quite inebriated at this point) said Bernie couldn't have any less chance than he does now, and the response was "He does have a chance! I mean, it's a long chance, but it's a chance!" And said his prediction was that the primary would be "disappointingly close," which is vague enough anyway that I can't imagine he'll consider himself far off the mark no matter what the numbers are. I figure it'll be a comfortable Hillary victory - not a huge landslide, but similar to Obama 2012 where realistically there was nothing that could have changed the math for Romney.
I don't think he's rabidly anti-Hillary or anything, most of the Bernie supporters in my friends circle are just pretty cool towards her. I don't have any strong feelings towards her either way, I'm guessing she'll be a decent president but unless Congress flips I can't see her being any better than Obama.
Honestly I would argue Bernie doesn't go far enough. We need to be starting a push for a baseline salary that everyone in the country gets, regardless of if they're employed or not. Automation and AI are going to put thousands of people out of jobs over the course of my lifetime, hell it's already started and even my industry (journalism) isn't entirely immune. They've got a program that can write articles in AP style, and it's not horrible at it. That shit shook me. I didn't think that would be possible in my lifetime.
Technology is either going to be the best thing that's ever happened to us or the worst, it's all going to depend on how we react to it.
Chezzymann
Member
So Colorado just didn't have a primary and gave the delegates to Cruz since they knew trump would win if people actually voted? Fuck this. I hate trump but I'm starting to kind of legitimatley root for him cause of all this party fuckery.
eBay Huckster
Member
i saw hillary stickers on the laptop of someone other than me for the first time ever today
which is also clearly a sign
While I agree with you I think it's too early to go that far. Maybe next election. Or the one after that.
Yes, this is most definitely the case. Bernie is to the left of American discourse but he's not actually left enough for the problems that we're actually going to face. If he's going to lose anyway, he might as well go all out and start seeding the ideas that we are going to have to become comfortable with at some point, but I'm not sure to what extant he's even thought deeply about automation.
aspiegamer
Member
I'm wondering how long into the GE it will take before the media actually starts up on the EC angle. Democrats could probably lose the popular vote nationally by 2-3 points and still manage an EC win. It would be a complete disaster downticket, but Democrats really have the map tilted in their favor right now with future changes continuing that trend. The only way Sanders would ever have any chance at a GE win would be via a #NeverTrump EC win.
Nice.
Although I keep telling myself this is the reason I'm "rooting" for Trump, deep down it's still because I want to see the GOP burn.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Where is this story at?
Edit: Oh, they did that back in August.
Another step in Cruz stealing the nomination. That convention is going to be madness.
Funny enough, if the GOP had the Dem system, Bush or Rubio would probably be the one winning the GOP primary. The Dem system is specifically designed for party bosses to choose their nominee. Basically, the Dem primary is all about Hamilton.
Nonsense. Please explain how Bush/Rubio would be winning if they were running in the Dem system, and relate that winning to party bosses.
edit: Jeb Bush, who was routinely receiving 3% in the polls and at the ballot box, would somehow be winning. Jeb Bush.
Like I don't think that communism or pure socialism are necessarily the way to go, but we're going to have to push our way left economically in the future and I'd rather start getting everyone used to the idea now. I mean, the only reasons places like McDonald's aren't almost fully automated at this point are cost and people aren't ready for machines to make their food.
I don't think he's thought that hard about it, judging by his rhetoric on trade. He blames free trade deals for the decline in american manufacturing jobs. While it was an issue, it masked the rise of automation in that sector.
I thought mine would be fine for my lifetime, but there it is. I mean, if you can replace writers then everyone's screwed at some point.
I doubt Trump would've won if Colorado were still a caucus, and I don't think he'd have won if it were a primary (assuming this was on Super Tuesday) but he probably would've come close when the race was a 5 person one. He would've at least gotten some delegates.
Macho Madness
Member
Funny enough, if the GOP had the Dem system, Bush or Rubio would probably be the one winning the GOP primary. The Dem system is specifically designed for party bosses to choose their nominee. Basically, the Dem primary is all about Hamilton.
How do you figure that? Superdelegates? How would Trump not be as far ahead as Clinton is?
To me, the Dem primary system is showing that an early lead is basically impossible to overcome but if you can convince people to keep giving you money then it doesn't matter.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Agreed, although that's not really much of a factor for me in not supporting him because no one's really going far enough right now on that issue. In terms of problems specific to him, I'd go with a lack of real planning from both a policy and politics standpoint, plus a fair number of his ideas are empty populism.
Black Mamba
Member
New York will be big for 2 reasons, IMO.
1. It will hopefully end the Sanders perception he still has a chance to win.
2. It will tell us whether Trump can win an outright majority (but won't guarantee it) or if the convention will be a big fat mess.
Too bad it's still 8 days away. Driving me nuts. Feels like a month since a primary that's mattered. Oh wait, it is.
1. It will hopefully end the Sanders perception he still has a chance to win.
2. It will tell us whether Trump can win an outright majority (but won't guarantee it) or if the convention will be a big fat mess.
Too bad it's still 8 days away. Driving me nuts. Feels like a month since a primary that's mattered. Oh wait, it is.
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