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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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ivysaur12

Banned
Blue dogs are essential to the Democratic caucus in Congress, even if they don't vote for all ultra-progressive legislation, they still vote for Democratic leadership in the House (Speaker), who then sets the legislative calendar and determines what bills are voted on and is able to whip the necessary votes needed to pass.

Sorry!

Also, Sherrod Brown and Elizabeth Warren are never going to be the senator from Louisiana.
 

ApharmdX

Banned
He's not worse than the guy who voted for the bill, used his vote to say he is tough on crime till recently to finally claim some BS reason was why he supported the bill.
And while I'm particularly not fond of BLM type of protest in political rally, Sanders didn't fare much better with BLM either.
No one was really supportive of BLM when they started.

You make good points. I'm not saying that Sanders is any better for BLM, or all African-Americans (I don't know that he is). I am saying that the standard for something to be racist against black people is much higher than the standard for something to be antisemitic, and that the Clintons have crossed lines that wouldn't be widely acceptable if they were against Jews. If Hillary had done a scripted joke with De Blasio about how Jewish people are thrifty, would it have been waved off? I suspect not. Trump made some off-color comments to the Republican Jewish Coalition last year, and it was major headlines, even though the comments were mostly on positive stereotypes rather than negative remarks on punctuality.
 

Farmboy

Member
Sanders greatest sin was trying to win the nomination.

I know you mean this as snark, but it's actually quite accurate. The main problems are:

1) As good and surprisingly effective as Sanders has been as a message candidate, he's been quite terrible as a candidate actually trying to win the nomination. Whenever his campaign talks about delegate math and paths to victory, it sounds out of character at best and completely out of touch at worst.

2) The Sanders campaign began attacking Hillary in earnest after it had already become clear to anyone with a calculator that victory was pretty much impossible. It's somewhat remniscent of the murder-suicide that Christie performed on Rubio: sure, we all cheered Christie on because it was the GOP and we want Trump to get the nom... but I can't blame Rubio supporters for their anger. It's obviously annoying when it happens on 'our' side.

The whole thing reeks of desperation, of a campaign startled by its success and morphing into something less principled... and certainly less disciplined.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Here is what Nate Cohn has for the demographics of the states going forward for Trump. Asking about Cruz.

Cf9KVezWwAAYcfb.jpg
 

Mael

Member
Well, it does.

In some more homogeneous countries, or with a whole lotta guns.
That's pretty much what ENDED the Revolution in France(and I mean the very 1rst one).
Ideological purity tests and everyone who failed got a head shorter.
It was infuriatingly stupid then, it still is.
You make good points. I'm not saying that Sanders is any better for BLM, or all African-Americans (I don't know that he is). I am saying that the standard for something to be racist against black people is much higher than the standard for something to be antisemitic, and that the Clintons have crossed lines that wouldn't be widely acceptable if they were against Jews. If Hillary had done a scripted joke with De Blasio about how Jewish people are thrifty, would it have been waved off? I suspect not. Trump made some off-color comments to the Republican Jewish Coalition last year, and it was major headlines, even though the comments were mostly on positive stereotypes rather than negative remarks on punctuality.

I'll give credit to Trump in that it really didn't affect him at all.
Heck people kinda cheered him here (he even endeared himself to me a little as to how he didn't give a shit about the Jewish Coalition which I can't say I disagree).
It's true that if you shit on AA in the US you'll get that much less shit thrown at you and the Jewish community seems a bit protected.
We have the same issue where I come from and it's as BS there as it is here.
In a general sense I kinda agree with you although I hope it's not really true in the US.
 

royalan

Member
Ugh, I've managed to avoid Facebook scuffles this entire primary until today. Now I'm arguing with an Episcopal minister because I wrote a post on my Facebook saying Hillary voters have a right to vote for Hillary, didn't even mention Bernie. He responded with calling her "Evil Incarnate" and went down basically every Bernie attack line from the last few months.

Hurry up, New York..
 
Ugh, I've managed to avoid Facebook scuffles this entire primary until today. Now I'm arguing with an Episcopal minister because I wrote a post on my Facebook saying Hillary voters have a right to vote for Hillary, didn't even mention Bernie. He responded with calling her "Evil Incarnate" and went down basically every Bernie attack line from the last few months.

Hurry up, New York..

at least that still doesn't sound as bad as the guy on my own who decided it made perfect logical sense that people disenfranchised by voter ID laws are bernie voters
 
Not that I post much on Facebook at all, but I really try to avoid posting anything that's overtly political. Honestly it has more to do with not getting into pointless arguments with conservative relatives than anything else, but I think it's serving me well this primary season, even if it means biting my proverbial tongue when I see someone sharing an H.A. Goodman article on my feed.

I posted a status update about voting on primary day and complained about people not voting for Supreme Court in Wisconsin (didn't mention Sanders explicitly although I did use the term "political revolution"), but other than that I've stayed silent.
 
My cousin, the one who attacked me for supporting Queen, has been texting my mom because I refuse to engage with her over Bernie. My momma don't play that. But that's the worst I've had to deal with. Well...except my Berniebro wanting to watch TYT.
 

Tom_Cody

Member
With a May 7 Deadline, Trump Only Hired a California Political Director Yesterday

Trump has a real problem. It is California.

Presume Donald Trump wins 100% of New York’s delegates, or 95 delegates, next week. That’s not likely, but just presume he did it. He would then have to win roughly 58% of all the remaining delegates, but he only averages 45% delegate wins on election night. And California’s rules are, well, unique.

Ted Cruz has been laying ground word in California for a year. Donald Trump? His campaign is just starting and they have a deadline on May 7th. Literally Donald Trump just hired his California political director yesterday.

That deadline? The candidates in California get to submit delegates from each congressional district. If a candidate wins a congressional district, his delegates get to vote. It took Cruz more than 5 months to find delegates in all of California’s congressional districts. Cruz found 169 delegates and 169 alternates, which is a complete slate of delegates and alternates. Trump is just starting and the deadline to turn in his list is May 7th.

If Trump can’t field a complete slate, even if he wins a congressional district he won’t have delegates to vote for him.


http://theresurgent.com/with-a-may-...ed-a-california-political-director-yesterday/

Trump is a joke.
Eh, I'm fully on the "Trump is an incompetent joke" train, but I think his campaign can probably find 350 eligible delegates given a month. And Erik Erickson probably isn't the most objective source regarding weighing the importance of this topic.

We shall see.
 
at least that still doesn't sound as bad as the guy on my own who decided it made perfect logical sense that people disenfranchised by voter ID laws are bernie voters

i should point out that literally every other bernie supporter on my list either doesn't engage with me (generally the wacky-old-socialist types) or agrees with most of what i'm saying and doesn't grasp at every possible straw to deny that he could possibly be fairly losing (literally everyone else)
 
Ugh, I've managed to avoid Facebook scuffles this entire primary until today. Now I'm arguing with an Episcopal minister because I wrote a post on my Facebook saying Hillary voters have a right to vote for Hillary, didn't even mention Bernie. He responded with calling her "Evil Incarnate" and went down basically every Bernie attack line from the last few months.

Hurry up, New York..

I've had a few.

I rarely post politics on my FB. The first one was something critical of Hillary when she made her Reagan/ AIDS fuckup. Allll of the Bernie people I know piled on.

I posted a couple more Hillary articles from the WaPo or NY Times and had Bernie people try to shout me down because those sources are Clinton propaganda machines (only USUNCUT will do, apparently).

So I decided that it was open season on every Bernie person who commented on my page and went about fact checking their posts and throwing cold water on every post. You'd think I was stabbing their mother to death while masturbating with a new born in my lap. The level of defensiveness, thin-skinnedness and over all lack of the ability to see multiple sides of an issue is just mind boggling. And this was from people who I otherwise knew and understood to be level headed folks.

When I refused to stop posting and let them know if they wanted an echo chamber to either de-friend me or to stop commenting on politics on my page, they all pretty much shut up.
 

User 406

Banned
Here you may find this to be useful.

I wonder if personalized results can get so good that your personal news bubble could persist even after it technically should be popped? Like if your candidate loses but all news about their opponents' inauguration and governance ends up bumped off the first page by fanfiction.
 

johnsmith

remember me
Ok I got my economic metaphors mixed up. The Sanders plan is probably closer to voodoo economics, the belief that tax cuts pay for themselves. Really sad seeing someone on the left peddling these fantasies.
 

Mael

Member
Ok I got my economic metaphors mixed up. The Sanders plan is probably closer to voodoo economics, the belief that tax cuts pay for themselves. Really sad seeing someone on the left peddling these fantasies.

That's a form of trickle down economic.
It's surprising that someone whose platform is pretty much all about the economy could ascribe to something so...sorry don't have the word right now.
 

Trancos

Member
To win a 'Revolution' you need to ally yourself with other people that want to go more or less in the same direction. Even if you don't agree 100% in the policies. If they bother you too much you can get rid of them after the "revolution' won.

not sure someone got that
 
There's some voodoo there.

But it's mostly not analogous to trickle down.

Ultimately taxes are borne by people and it affects behaviour. There are tradeoffs to policies. This is the realism that's missing. If you implement a broad financial transaction tax for instance. If you raise marginal tax rates, there are revenue maximising values. If you implement higher payroll taxes.
 

Sianos

Member
Hm, Cruz and Trump looking awful close in Indiana - think Cruz's trend of over performing predictions, perhaps due to a last minute coalescing of the NeverTrump bloc, will lead to this playing out like Winconsin?
 

royalan

Member
at least that still doesn't sound as bad as the guy on my own who decided it made perfect logical sense that people disenfranchised by voter ID laws are bernie voters

It's getting nuts.

Someone talk my off a ledge, because I'm actually growing concerned.

I know that primaries get heated and mud gets thrown, but I don't remember attacks of this nature being thrown in 08. I was a 22 year old Hillary Stan new to the process then, so maybe I just didn't notice, but the attacks from Hillary's side seemed to be focused on Obama being untested and inexperienced, while Obama honed in on Hillary's Iraq War vote and general judgement.

But this year? Sanders constantly inferring that Hillary is inherently corrupt. His campaign's complacency with his voters claiming that Hillary is guilty of voter fraud (the campaign only speaks out when it happens in states he loses). Jeff Weaver going on TV and saying that Hillary has made a deal with the devil...

Corrupt. Fraud. Deal with the devil. These are some high moral charges. And when you connect to a person's core values to convince them to believe a certain thing, it's hard to convince them otherwise down the road.

I don't know how Bernie walks this back. Even Chris Matthews last night described it as frightening, and I agree.
 

Fuchsdh

Member
It's getting nuts.

Someone talk my off a ledge, because I'm actually growing concerned.

I know that primaries get heated and mud gets thrown, but I don't remember attacks of this nature being thrown in 08. I was a 22 year old Hillary Stan new to the process then, so maybe I just didn't notice, but the attacks from Hillary's side seemed to be focused on Obama being untested and inexperienced, while Obama honed in on Hillary's Iraq War vote and general judgement.

But this year? Sanders constantly inferring that Hillary is inherently corrupt. His campaigns complacency with his voters claiming that Hillary is guilty of voter fraud (the campaign only speaks out when it happens in states he loses). Jeff Weaver going on TV and saying that Hillary has made a deal with the devil...

Corrupt. Fraud. Deal with the devil. These are some high moral charges. And when you connect to a person's core values to convince them to believe a certain thing, it's hard to convince them otherwise down the road.

I don't know how Bernie walks this back. Even Chris Matthews made night described it as frightening, and I agree.

I don't remember it as much either, but people here have brought up a lot of shit Clinton's side did. On the other hand, I don't think Bernie has any compunction about going worse, because he has nothing to lose and his supporters certainly don't care about any cobra effect. The diehards are only in it for him.
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Yeah I'm not too worried about voters due to Cruz/Trump. I'm just saying... don't underestimate the effect of sexism/the Clinton hate machine.

Though, I WAS pretty worried about racism (in regards to Obama) back then, so luckily it turned out alright.

It's at the hottest point emotionally of the primary....it's not that I'm underestimating some potential sexism - it's that a) racism has repeatedly shown to be a significantly higher correlative value when it comes to votes over gender and b) this shit happens during every heated primary. :p Rule #1 of politics: Your situation is not unique or special. :p

I hope you're right, but I don't know. I feel like I would have expected Clinton and her base of old white Democrats to ultimately support the party they've supported for decades, while I just cannot feel the same way about the independent Sanders and his independently minded Millennial base.

Statistics, polling, and every ounce of empirical data show that I'd rather take independent Millenials voting against Cruz / Trump over old white dog-whistled Democrats (Thanks Clinton!) voting for Obama at the time. :D Millennials I believe had a higher unfavorable for Trump and Cruz than Latinos.


It is indeed low, but I didn't think it was this low. They'd be better off picking a random Gaffer.

He will get to keep writing his inane bullshit if you all keep linking it and reading it. :p

Good news! Low turnout among those who are now drinking the revolution kool-aid in 2010 and 2014 have made it so candidates running for the Senate and the House that are similar to Landrieu, Nelson and Baucus now have little to no chance of ever getting elected. Instead we have literal hardcore Republicans in their place, yay!

Yep. There's a liberal vein of Tea Party-ish tendencies from both Clinton and Sanders supporters that make me think they are not considering the second order consequences of said actions.

Ya, but someone like JBE is just as bad as a Republican or something.

Until you need to confirm judges or give committee chairman positions to fellow party members.

Not that I post much on Facebook at all, but I really try to avoid posting anything that's overtly political. Honestly it has more to do with not getting into pointless arguments with conservative relatives than anything else, but I think it's serving me well this primary season, even if it means biting my proverbial tongue when I see someone sharing an H.A. Goodman article on my feed.

I posted a status update about voting on primary day and complained about people not voting for Supreme Court in Wisconsin (didn't mention Sanders explicitly although I did use the term "political revolution"), but other than that I've stayed silent.

Ditto - growing up in a conservative area and then moving to a super liberal area...I just keep politics out of my FB feed. There's a lot more to my identity than just my political views, and those other parts of me are the parts that I wish to share.
 

Wilsongt

Member
I have two fairly strong Bernie supporters on my Facebook page.
One who will vote for Queen when she gets the nom and the other who keeps liking posts of people who support what HA Goodman writes.
 

Iolo

Member
Ha!

"Bernie has won 55.8% of delegates in non-southern states so far. To win the majority of delegates he needs to win 56.4% of the remaining delegates. Don't let others discourage you. We are less than 1% away from being on right on track to win."

http://imgur.com/gallery/ruTOs

H9YuFsB.png


I'll be curious to see their "polls" that lead to Bernie winning pledged delegates by 1 after he loses by 10% or more in New York.

Honestly my favorite part of this is that Hillary wins Guam.
 
Ditto - growing up in a conservative area and then moving to a super liberal area...I just keep politics out of my FB feed. There's a lot more to my identity than just my political views, and those other parts of me are the parts that I wish to share.

yeah, in my case I hail from Cleveland, live in Columbus, and currently attend OSU

the first and third of these things are very bad for keeping politics out of my feed of other people's posts, let alone my own

Honestly my favorite part of this is that Hillary wins Guam.

my second favorite part is that it's a 60-40 win after Sanders' surrogate directly insulted the territory
 
AHHHH TURN LEFT

Alex Seitz-Wald ‏@aseitzwald 18m18 minutes ago
Speaker at Bernie Sanders rally: "Please do not believe the bullshit... the status quo sucks."

Alex Seitz-WaldVerified account
‏@aseitzwald
Adds that we need to kick out the "corporate Democratic whores" and replace them with "Bernie-crats."

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
 

BanGy.nz

Banned
I don't know how Bernie walks this back. Even Chris Matthews last night described it as frightening, and I agree.
"On her worst day, Hillary Clinton is a hundred times better than any of the Republicans." - Bernie Sanders.

I still think he'll back off the Clinton attacks at the end of the month, after the 26th the delegate math goes from almost impossible to impossible.
 
How dare a candidate not want to support candidates who don't share their values.

Bernie's biggest mistake was running in the confines of the Democratic Party. A third party Bernie ticket could've smashed the two party monopoly.

Lol.... not on the slightest. It'd just hand the GOP the White House
 
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