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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Hilbert said:
To be fair, the Sanders campaign is busy suing the Democratic Party instead.
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/bows

That was good, lol.

adam387 said:
Bernie's surrogate problem is that he has so few of them. Literally, there are like three that he can use consistently to not totally fuck it up. (And even those three tend to screw up majorly from time to time.) With Hillary, a surrogate screws up, we just don't have to hear from them again. They go away quietly. Bernie keeps shoving the same people out there because he can't be everywhere at once and he has no other options.

What I can't stand, though, is throwing his wife out there as a surrogate WITHOUT TALKING POINTS. Give her something. Give her the message you want to go with, and make sure she knows what it is. In the one interview about tax returns the other day, she gave a word salad answer as to why they haven't released them. In the span of a few seconds she said they were at home, they hadn't done them this year, they didn't know where they all were, something about Turbo Tax and something about how they already released them. I blame his campaign for that.

And, to be clear, I'm not saying his wife needs to be "handled," just from a campaign perspective, don't throw her to the wolves without making sure she has the approved story you're going with.
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That's actually a good point - part of his problem is that he doesn't have many established surrogates (the downside of being I for so long, as well as kind of doing his own thing for so long) does leave his margin of error much, much thinner. Ever since Poli-GAF got me all spooled up on politics I've been bugging my friends in DC, and there's a pretty strong opinion that Sanders basically never expected to get this far, and this is all pretty much flying by the seat of pants. The bit with his taxes seems to just give another data point in that favor. I like that Sanders has pushed Clinton to the left, especially when it comes to economics. I do sort of wish he had planned for an actual campaign run though, lol.
 
F

Fuchsdh

Member
Plinko said:
Ted Cruz totally looks like a character who would be in an episode of Twilight Zone that seems like he's helping the main character but, in the end, secretly stole his soul and trapped him inside some weird type of purgatory/hell.

I know that's oddly specific, but even so.
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The devil was usually better looking in The Twilight Zone.
 
N

noshten

Member
Ophelion said:
Based on his proposed tax plan, how many of them would exceed that threshold?
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A 6.2 percent payroll tax and a 2.2 percent income surtax. The former would hit all wages, the latter would fall only on households whose annual income is above the amount exempted by standard deductions — about $28,800 for a family of four. These levies, his campaign says, would generate about $840 billion a year in new revenue.
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Payroll Tax would replace insurance for employers so it's questionable if companies are going to in anyway cut wages since the of the costs of health insurance continues to rise.
So around 66% of Bernie Sanders voters actually support his proposal.

adam387 said:
Also, Bernie's 27,000 rally last night?

It was 11,500 per the NYPD.
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lol
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
My god

Cf7_0YCVAAAwnY-.jpg


Of course this is a simplistic way to look at the ACA but look at the Black, Hispanic, and very poor number.
 
C

Crocodile

Member
Cybit said:
A) Ah, ok, fair. Yeah, in a funny way, Bernie has the best messaging of any candidate due to the message discipline he has - but the problem is that the message isn't resonating as much as he thought it would with certain groups. To him, economics is the biggest, overarching issue that drives all others, but to some folks, it isn't, and his message discipline comes back to bite him in the ass for those folks.

As for crappy surrogates - I don't know if surrogates have gotten crappier or whether social media / Twitter are just the ultimate "mountain out of mole hill" amplifiers, especially considering that we now strip all context out in order to fuel our outrage. (Which is unbelievably dangerous, but that's another digression)

B) I think this is the real pivot; trying to woo Megyn Kelly / FOX seems like a bigger pivot than anything else he's tried. The next GOP debate will be super interesting.
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A) One man's discipline is another man's inflexibility I guess :p

B) Wait are there going to be more GOP Debates? Why? :(
 
D

dramatis

Member
adam387 said:
Also, Bernie's 27,000 rally last night?

It was 11,500 per the NYPD.
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Washington Square Park isn't that big, if it were really 27k there would be articles about people spilling out onto the sidewalks and other streets and possibly blocking even the roads.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
dramatis said:
Washington Square Park isn't that big, if it were really 27k there would be articles about people spilling out onto the sidewalks and other streets and possibly blocking even the roads.
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Or when someone tweeted how awesome the images from "on the ground" were.

Except they were from New Years Eve celebrations.
In Paris.
You could see the Arc de Triomphe.
 
S

Sianos

Member
pigeon said:
I don't really understand why you think anybody should give a shit about whether you personally are okay with the word "whore." This is not a social club, we're talking about the actual effects vocabulary choices have on reifying the patriarchy.

The word "whore" is as closely tied up with a patriarchal, power-focused understanding of sexuality as any other word in the entire English language. You can't use it as a derogatory without implicitly buying into that structure and using it as a weapon, which necessarily empowers it and makes you part of it.

If you think that it's okay to call women (or any people) whores if you just feel strongly enough about the choices they've made then you think that the patriarchy is awesome and sexism is great inasmuch as they give you powerful weapons to use to attack your opponents. That doesn't make you sexist, necessarily, but it makes you a product of your upbringing.
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Very well said.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Fun Vox article about Kasich vs Clinton

http://www.vox.com/2016/4/13/11411288/kasich-clinton-general-election

Interestingly enough, Morning Consult's head-to-head matchups show Clinton actually ahead of Kasich in Florida (43-38), Nevada (42-39), and Virginia (41-40), which are traditionally thought of as among the closest toss-up states.

Yet she still loses overwhelmingly — she trails Kasich in a couple of traditional swing states (Colorado and Kasich's home state of Ohio), and even narrowly trails him in bluer states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Maine, and Oregon.

"If the election were held today, John Kasich would receive 304 electoral votes to Hillary Clinton’s 234, largely due to strong performances in the Midwest and mid-Atlantic," the company says.

Now, it's worth remembering that Kasich has gotten little media attention so far and has scarcely been attacked by Democrats. If he actually became his party's nominee, the race could well tighten. Still, it's striking to see any projection put so many blue states in play.
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Lets hope the GOP doesn't regain its sanity and nominate Kasich.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Cybit said:
Fun Vox article about Kasich vs Clinton

http://www.vox.com/2016/4/13/11411288/kasich-clinton-general-election



Lets hope the GOP doesn't regain its sanity and nominate Kasich.
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I'd have a hard time imagining that actually pan out.

He'd very likely have an outsized advantage in Ohio, yes, but I think his numbers in Pa, WI, Mi etc. would come down once he's in the spotlight. He's only leading right now because he's basically Generic R which can mean anything to anyone.
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
Macho Madness said:
I did not know that the Bernie campaign has $10 million from Q2 2015 unaccounted for. Probably a clerical error but the FEC still needs to know!
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https://gobling.wordpress.com/2016/02/17/bernie-gets-10-million-in-mystery-donations-from-d-c/

The federal form states that the $10 million is an aggregate of individual $35 donations, all with the same date and all originating from Washington, D.C. This would require 299,026 separate donors, which equals roughly half the population of the capital.

Under federal campaign finance law, disclosure is required on contributions over $200. Thus, the $35 donations do not appear in violation. However, given the relatively small population of D.C. and the lack of support for Sanders among legislators, the 300K individual contributions do appear highly questionable.
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Kristoffer said:
I think Bernie Sanders is using his nurse's union super pac to funnel money into his campaign in the form of unaccounted "small donor contributions" and I have proof.
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the truth is out there, friends
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
perfectchaos007 said:
If Trump doesn't get the required number of delegates before the convention, I imagine a lot of the candidates that "suspended" their campaign will throw their hat back in the ring. We may have not heard the last of Rubio and Bush!
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They need to have won eight states to be eligible - it's Trump or Cruz.

Unless they decide to change the rules again
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Cybit said:
Fun Vox article about Kasich vs Clinton

http://www.vox.com/2016/4/13/11411288/kasich-clinton-general-election

Lets hope the GOP doesn't regain its sanity and nominate Kasich.
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It's wayyy too early for these sorts of polls to actually pan out.

There were polls that had Herman Cain beating Obama during the 2012 primaries.

There's way too much to account for. Convention shenanigans, Bernie or Bust voters waking up, people actually bothering to research Kasich's unsavory aspects.
 
S

studyguy

Member
perfectchaos007 said:
Huh. I could have sworn I heard the name Paul Ryan being thrown around if there was a brokered convention. He hasn't won any states either.
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Don't worry, he'll probably come out on the convention floor and reiterate for like the 80th time that he doesn't want the nomination. Some podcast counted how many times he's said he doesn't want to be president and it's in the high double digits. Pretty funny.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
They can change the rules and do whatever they want. It is a private organization that isn't bound by any law (unless a contract was signed detailing the rules and is found to be binding) so it doesn't really matter. They can nominate whoever they want. I just don't know if it's a good idea.
 
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