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[balladofwindfishes]

Well the thing is he's not going to be mathematically eliminated until California unless he somehow drops below 15% going forward.

But how far down the crazy rabbit hole will he go? "We just need 80% of California, polls show us down 10%, but we will do it! Donate!"

That charade can only go on so long.

I think there's a decent chance he drops out after NY if Clinton wins by 10+ points.

So do I, and I'm pretty sure she'll win NY by at least 10%. The set up for registration and the primary format are not kind to Sanders at all.

 

[User 463088]

I'm pretty tired of people shouting "context!" every time Bernie's campaign bungles gender-related stuff. If you put them all together, haven't there been one too many slip ups to consider that maybe, just maybe, Bernie and his supporters could be unconsciously sexist, and worse yet not making a concerted effort to reflect on this problem?

Couldn't Song have said "corporate sellout" instead of "corporate whore"? Could Bernie not say Hillary is unqualified, and maybe not doubled down on that? Couldn't Killer Mike have said "women" instead of "vagina"?

The 'context' of so many slip ups tell me that there's an element of sexism at play here, whether consciously or unconsciously. The lack of self-reflection in that regard makes me question if the Bernie campaign is at all serious about gender equality, because obviously they don't really seem to be careful and cautious about women's opinions at all.

Bernie's the only campaign who doesn't have a single woman in the top 10 paid staffers on the campaign.

Just putting that out there. Draw your own conclusions.

 

[GutsOfThor]

I thought Sanders was already mathematically eliminated at this point?

 

[VendettaRed07]

I thought Sanders was already mathematically eliminated at this point?

Nope. Just in practical terms.

 

[User 463088]

I thought Sanders was already mathematically eliminated at this point?

Technically, no. It's just mathematically improbable. He's down 3x more than any person who has ever been able to come back and win it.

 

[Holmes]

I thought Sanders was already mathematically eliminated at this point?

Sanders will never be mathematically eliminated because of superdelegates, even though there's been a report that about 600 of them have already pledged their support to Clinton. If he loses New York and Pennsylvania by 10-15%, Maryland by 25%+ and at best, ties in Connecticut and Rhode Island, his goose is cooked either way. But not mathematically eliminated.

 

[Abinash117]

I remember people being scared of a general election Trump, I think some are still are lol.

The only thing tonight's debate would change is if Hillary had a melt down moment. In 2008 she utterly dominated the debates right up until the end where she fluffed a question on taxi licenses for illegal immigrants, and that just went haywire. That's Bernies only hope really - and it's less likely to happen this time because there aren't 8 other people on stage ready to pile into her.

It's a no-win situation for Hillary I feel - she just needs to get through it unscathed. I don't see Sanders suffering no matter what he says because as we've seen his fanbase is willing to defend anything he or his delegates say.

Sanders fanbase will vote for him no matter what, but the point is to convince Hillary voters, undecided, and new voters to vote for him. I don't think his debate performances has been very successful at that. It'll be typical Bernie getting Hillary on the economy( wall street will be a big focus) and the same for foreign policy, but no one really cares about foreign policy. Bernie and Hillary will accuse each other on stuff, probably won
't stick, and after the debate some Bernie supporters will believe he will win NY(and lose it when NY votes) .

The campaign are showing signs of a losing campaign. For awhile now it has been contradicting strategies, non-strategies, improbability happenings, and mud throwing. The stuff that has been going on in the past few months do not look well on Bernie since he needs to court registered democrats; it doesn't seem he changed his strategy at all when it comes to the new set primary states and new demographics. I guess that is the reason the campaign is focused on changing the minds of delegates. I imagine he'll partially abandon the next set of states until Cali.

 

[pigeon]

Debate thread within the hour.

Hold up, hold up, I am making the debate thread.

It will happen later today.

DON'T SNIPE MY THREAD BRO

 

[Spoiled Milk]

Hold up, hold up, I am making the debate thread.

It will happen later today.

DON'T SNIPE MY THREAD BRO

Aight I'll save my stuff for next poligaf thread. Where the hell are you all discussing this?

 

[excelsiorlef]

I'm curious to see what Sanders shows up tonight... the I don't give a damn about your emails Sanders or teetering on desperate scorched earth Sanders .

 

[Mael]

Bernie's the only campaign who doesn't have a single woman in the top 10 paid staffers on the campaign.

Just putting that out there. Draw your own conclusions.

Pretty funny that Trump of all people would be better for equal pay during his campaign than Sanders.

 

[GutsOfThor]

Got it. Thanks guys.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

I'm curious to see what Sanders shows up tonight... the I don't give a damn about your emails Sanders or teetering on desperate scorched earth Sanders .

Same Sanders: passive and 100% on message (to the point of delusion) in the debate, then after the debate is over he'll throw bombs.

 

[blackaroni]

Rosario Dawson calls Hillary Clinton a "war hawk" who only cares about women in the U.S. "That sounds kind of racist to me. That seems kind of sexist and classist to me."
Rosario is a mess.

 

[gutter_trash]

I'm curious to see what Sanders shows up tonight... the I don't give a damn about your emails Sanders or teetering on desperate scorched earth Sanders .

we are going to get 1% Wall Street Super PAK Bernie with lots of finger wagging

 

[excelsiorlef]

Rosario Dawson calls Hillary Clinton a "war hawk" who only cares about women in the U.S. "That sounds kind of racist to me. That seems kind of sexist and classist to me."
Rosario is a mess.

God shut up Rosario Dawson... Christ.

 

[SheSaidNo]

Pretty funny that Trump of all people would be better for equal pay during his campaign than Sanders.

I mean the full analysis is

The top 10 highest-paid staffers on Bernie Sanders’ campaign are ALL men. However, looking at the campaign as a whole, women’s average salaries are a little under $1,000 more than the men’s salaries.

 

[gutter_trash]

God shut up Rosario Dawson... Christ.

these celebrities contradict themselves when a big evil company like Nestlé (that wants to privatize water) hires these creampuffs to make Nespresso commercials *cough Danny DeVito*

 

[Plinko]

Ted Cruz totally looks like a character who would be in an episode of Twilight Zone that seems like he's helping the main character but, in the end, secretly stole his soul and trapped him inside some weird type of purgatory/hell.

I know that's oddly specific, but even so.

 

[Cybit]

Bernie's the only campaign who doesn't have a single woman in the top 10 paid staffers on the campaign.

Just putting that out there. Draw your own conclusions.

Funny enough, if we go by who hires and pays women the best - Trump is arguably the most progressive of the bunch. Kind of a contradiction - he's definitely a womanizer, but when push comes to shove, he is pretty meritocratic when it comes to his businesses.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...afac80-88da-11e5-9a07-453018f9a0ec_story.html

Trump highlighted the role of women in his corporate success in his 1987 book “The Art of the Deal,” writing that he hired “a lot of women for top jobs, and they’re among my best people.”

Referring in the interview to his recruitment and promotion of women, he added: “It was a good decision. Good for women and good for me.”

Today, according to Trump’s attorney, Michael Cohen, there are more women than men holding executive positions in the Trump Organization, heading such departments as human resources, golf and hotel management, and global licensing, even though women make up just 43 percent of the overall workforce. Women who are in similar positions as men, Cohen said, “are compensated at equal and in many cases higher pay rates.”

It was not possible to independently verify Cohen’s data, and he declined to provide documentation.

Also, interesting op-ed I hadn't seen yet about someone who worked for Trump

http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/barbara-res-donald-trump-boss-article-1.2525669

 

[User 463088]

The Democratic Party and the Hillary Clinton Campaign are suing Arizona over the shitty laws they used to make it harder for people to vote

Not Bernie. Not is Reddit warriors. The Democratic Party and Hillary Clinton.

The Democratic Party and Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign will sue the state of Arizona over voter access to the polls after the state’s presidential primary last month left thousands of residents waiting as long as five hours to vote.

The lawsuit, which will be filed on Friday, focuses on Maricopa County, the state’s most populous county, where voters faced the longest lines three weeks ago during the Democratic and Republican primaries after the county cut the number of polling places by 85 percent since 2008.

…

The lack of voting places was “particularly burdensome” on Maricopa County’s black, Hispanic and Native American communities, which had fewer polling locations than white communities and in some cases no places to vote at all, the lawsuit alleges.

The lawsuit is calling on the U.S. District Court of Phoenix to review the polling location plan for the November election. It also wants to stop state policies that have a “dramatic and disparate impact” on minorities, who are more likely to vote Democratic, the lawsuit says.

 

[daedalius]

omg Bernie on Nightly Show talking about his "New York values" because he is from New York...

sheesh

He's really pushing this angle huh?

 

[superdeluxe]

Why wouldn't he drop out if he's mathematically eliminated? Nobody is even going to pay attention to him.

Sanders campaign would shift to trying to woo Super delegates.

 

[User 463088]

And, surprising no one, the Vatican confirmed that Bernie will not be meeting with the Pope at all.

Edit: Holy shit, Andrea "emails" Mitchell agrees that the "Democratic whores" thing was an attack directly on Clinton. When you've lost Andrea Mitchell to the Clinton camp.....

 

[RustyNails]

Why wouldn't he drop out if he's mathematically eliminated? Nobody is even going to pay attention to him.

What and forego all that money being donated? Devine's company got paid 800k in March. He's going to keep Bernie running as long as he can with promises of California blowout. Imagine Grima Wormtongue and Theoden under the spell before Gandalf broke it.

 

[excelsiorlef]

The Democratic Party and the Hillary Clinton Campaign are suing Arizona over the shitty laws they used to make it harder for people to vote

Not Bernie. Not is Reddit warriors. The Democratic Party and Hillary Clinton.

HA Goodman: Clinton and DNC are suing themselves over Arizona. Here's why it clinches the nomination for Sanders.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

Rosario Dawson calls Hillary Clinton a "war hawk" who only cares about women in the U.S. "That sounds kind of racist to me. That seems kind of sexist and classist to me."
Rosario is a mess.

Clinton campaigned around the world for women's rights. :/

 

[gutter_trash]

And, surprising no one, the Vatican confirmed that Bernie will not be meeting with the Pope at all.

the funny fact is that the Pope himself never invited Bernie.
It was Bishop Marcelo Sanchez Sorondo,

 

[RustyNails]

Aight I'll save my stuff for next poligaf thread. Where the hell are you all discussing this?

You should pm or ask NeoXChaos. He keeps track of all threadmaking rules.

 

[User 463088]

HA Goodman: Clinton and DNC are suing themselves over Arizona. Here's why it clinches the nomination for Sanders.

t's only 1, but I want to start drinking because I KNOW that headline will exist at some point in my life.

 

[daedalius]

holy shit, I can't stand Bernie on nightly show

"so many southern states going first distorts reality"

Like Florida, and Ohio.

FUCK

 

[Crocodile]

Fair enough.

I guess I didn't like it back in '08 when people were accusing Hillary Clinton of being racist towards Obama when Bill or one of her surrogates said something kind of dumb or with ignorance instead of malice. Or even in 2016, acting like the crime bill that her husband passed 20 some years ago was done out of some kind of prejudice? Seriously?

I'll form my beliefs about Sanders and Clinton based on what they say and do - not their supporters (who are sort of crazy). I've seen enough craziness from surrogates that I tend to tune them out as well.

Aside: The Trump pivot begins

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/14/b...eets-with-donald-trump.html?ref=politics&_r=0

Also, I think Trump reads Scott Adams' blog.

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/142241536401/derailing-the-trump-train

A) I don't disagree. I just don't think "Candidate/Surrogate X said something racially/gender insensitive" is the same as "Candidate X is sexist/racist". Like as a Black man who may not live in the South but who has relatives in the South that vote, hearing Sanders say "I lost because those were Southern/Red States" pisses me off because its a refusal to acknowledge he lost because he wasn't able to appeal to Black voters. That doesn't mean I think Sanders doesn't care about the plight of Black people. I just think he's done a poor job talking to them and perhaps understanding what they care about and modifying his message and policy priorities. Also he got some crappy surrogates on his side. That just means, in this context, he was insensitive and dumb - not that he was full-on racist. Heck people can do and say sexist/racist things without them being a sexist/racist person overall. Anyway, I think that same line of thought applies to this current discussion (though the topic du jour was started by a surrogate of his and not him directly and he walked it back even if it was hours later than he should have).

B) Didn't Trump already try to pivot? I don't think he has it in him. I think he will try but fall off the wagon again.

 

[User 463088]

The one thing I feel bad about is that Lisa Ling is a big Hillary supporter even though her husband is an idiot. I really love Lisa Ling.

But, real talk: Men are the worst. We can't trust them at all. Can't trust them to not say incredibly hurtful things because they're stupid. Men are a mess. A big mess.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

You should pm or ask NeoXChaos. He keeps track of all threadmaking rules.

Maybe I want to fight the establishment

 

[NeoXChaos]

Aight I'll save my stuff for next poligaf thread. Where the hell are you all discussing this?

you have May debate

April Madness- dramatis
* All April Contest

May Meltdown- dramatis
All May Contest

June Showdown- Adam287
All June contest

*Veepstakes is going to be in PoliGAF

2016 Republican National Convention-b-dubs
2016 Democratic National Convention- NeoXChaos and HillaryGAF

1st Presidential Debate-b-dubs
Vice Presidential Debate-Ebay Huckster
2nd Presidential Debate-kingkitty
3rd Presidential Debate-Holmes

General Election 2016-Aaron Strife

Democratic Debates
Apil- pigeon
May-Kristoffer

 

[User 463088]

Also, Bernie's had a really, really shitty two weeks.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Sabato moved 13 House seats towards the Democrats, only one towards the GOP

Here's his article outlining how a Dem takeover might happen http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/house-2016-how-a-democratic-wave-could-happen/

Basically if you took Obama's vote margin from 2012 and give him three extra points, that's enough for him to go from winning 211 districts to 241 - in 2008 (under current district lines) he won in 242. Obviously ticket splitting is still a thing and the change wouldn't be applied universally so that would be no guarantee that this would result in Dems winning 241 seats, but the GOP would then have 56 districts that voted one way for the presidency and another for Congress. If the Democrats picked up barely over half of those they'd win.

I really think if Trump or Cruz were the nominee and as disastrous as everyone is predicting, that could do the trick. The problem with gerrymandering is that if you spread your GOP voters too thin, a wave could make a bunch of incumbents vulnerable who shouldn't be. It just takes three extra points for Democrats to flip 30 seats. This is exactly what happened in 2006, where GOP gerrymanders fell flat in places like Pennsylvania because those R+5 districts suddenly weren't so safe in a D+8 year. As Sabato points out, all but two of the 30 seats that would flip to Obama are in blue states.

I still wouldn't put money on it, but we already have polling suggesting 2016 will be similar to 2008, which could be good news for John McCain or something. I totally believe that Ted Cruz compared to Romney, along with demographic shifts since 2012 could turn Obama's 4 point victory into a 7 point win for Clinton.

 

[Cybit]

A) I don't disagree. I just don't think "Candidate/Surrogate X said something racially/gender insensitive" is the same as "Candidate X is sexist/racist". Like as a Black man who may not live in the South but who has relatives in the South that vote, hearing Sanders say "I lost because those were Southern/Red States" pisses me off because its a refusal to acknowledge he lost because he wasn't able to appeal to Black voters. That doesn't mean I think Sanders doesn't care about the plight of Black people. I just think he's done a poor job talking to them and perhaps understanding what they care about and modifying his message and policy priorities. Also he got some crappy surrogates on his side. That just means, in this context, he was insensitive and dumb - not that he was full-on racist. I think that same line of thought applies to this current discussion (though the topic du jour was started by a surrogate of his and not him directly and he walked it back even if it was hours later than he should have).

B) Didn't Trump already try to pivot? I don't think he has it in him. I think he will try but fall off the wagon again.

A) Ah, ok, fair. Yeah, in a funny way, Bernie has the best messaging of any candidate due to the message discipline he has - but the problem is that the message isn't resonating as much as he thought it would with certain groups. To him, economics is the biggest, overarching issue that drives all others, but to some folks, it isn't, and his message discipline comes back to bite him in the ass for those folks.

As for crappy surrogates - I don't know if surrogates have gotten crappier or whether social media / Twitter are just the ultimate "mountain out of mole hill" amplifiers, especially considering that we now strip all context out in order to fuel our outrage. (Which is unbelievably dangerous, but that's another digression)

B) I think this is the real pivot; trying to woo Megyn Kelly / FOX seems like a bigger pivot than anything else he's tried. The next GOP debate will be super interesting.

 

[Fenderputty]

The Democratic Party and the Hillary Clinton Campaign are suing Arizona over the shitty laws they used to make it harder for people to vote

Not Bernie. Not is Reddit warriors. The Democratic Party and Hillary Clinton.

The perfect ruse. You sheeple will believe anything the establishment does.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Sabato moved 13 House seats towards the Democrats, only one towards the GOP

Here's his article outlining how a Dem takeover might happen http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/house-2016-how-a-democratic-wave-could-happen/

Basically if you took Obama's vote margin from 2012 and give him three extra points, that's enough for him to go from winning 211 districts to 241 - in 2008 (under current district lines) he won in 242. Obviously ticket splitting is still a thing and the change wouldn't be applied universally so that would be no guarantee that this would result in Dems winning 241 seats, but the GOP would then have 56 districts that voted one way for the presidency and another for Congress. If the Democrats picked up barely over half of those they'd win.

I really think if Trump or Cruz were the nominee and as disastrous as everyone is predicting, that could do the trick. The problem with gerrymandering is that if you spread your GOP voters too thin, a wave could make a bunch of incumbents vulnerable who shouldn't be. It just takes three extra points for Democrats to flip 30 seats. This is exactly what happened in 2006, where GOP gerrymanders fell flat in places like Pennsylvania because those R+5 districts suddenly weren't so safe in a D+8 year. As Sabato points out, all but two of the 30 seats that would flip to Obama are in blue states.

I still wouldn't put money on it, but we already have polling suggesting 2016 will be similar to 2008, which could be good news for John McCain or something. I totally believe that Ted Cruz compared to Romney, along with demographic shifts since 2012 could turn Obama's 4 point victory into a 7 point win for Clinton.

good thing you posted this, because I was about to bump my own post about it from this morning and this one goes into a lot more detail than I did

but yeah, it's not a sure thing at this point, but odds are getting better that the November margin is the 7%+ needed for a flip

 

[Hilbert]

The Democratic Party and the Hillary Clinton Campaign are suing Arizona over the shitty laws they used to make it harder for people to vote

Not Bernie. Not is Reddit warriors. The Democratic Party and Hillary Clinton.

To be fair, the Sanders campaign is busy suing the Democratic Party instead.

 

[User 463088]

A) Ah, ok, fair. Yeah, in a funny way, Bernie has the best messaging of any candidate due to the message discipline he has - but the problem is that the message isn't resonating as much as he thought it would with certain groups. To him, economics is the biggest, overarching issue that drives all others, but to some folks, it isn't, and his message discipline comes back to bite him in the ass for those folks.

As for crappy surrogates - I don't know if surrogates have gotten crappier or whether social media / Twitter are just the ultimate "mountain out of mole hill" amplifiers, especially considering that we now strip all context out in order to fuel our outrage. (Which is unbelievably dangerous, but that's another digression)

B) I think this is the real pivot; trying to woo Megyn Kelly / FOX seems like a bigger pivot than anything else he's tried. The next GOP debate will be super interesting.

Bernie's surrogate problem is that he has so few of them. Literally, there are like three that he can use consistently to not totally fuck it up. (And even those three tend to screw up majorly from time to time.) With Hillary, a surrogate screws up, we just don't have to hear from them again. They go away quietly. Bernie keeps shoving the same people out there because he can't be everywhere at once and he has no other options.

What I can't stand, though, is throwing his wife out there as a surrogate WITHOUT TALKING POINTS. Give her something. Give her the message you want to go with, and make sure she knows what it is. In the one interview about tax returns the other day, she gave a word salad answer as to why they haven't released them. In the span of a few seconds she said they were at home, they hadn't done them this year, they didn't know where they all were, something about Turbo Tax and something about how they already released them. I blame his campaign for that.

And, to be clear, I'm not saying his wife needs to be "handled," just from a campaign perspective, don't throw her to the wolves without making sure she has the approved story you're going with.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Another bit of polling info from Morning Consult: 66% of Sanders supporters don't wanna pay more than $1K in new taxes (or more than 10% of their income) for his economic program

this also includes 56% (or 61% for the percentage) of voters age 18-29

 

[User 463088]

Another bit of polling info from Morning Consult: 66% of Sanders supporters don't wanna pay more than $1K in new taxes (or more than 10% of their income) for his economic program

But all you have to do is explain to them that they're going to get more and then it's all fine and dandy.

 

[Ophelion]

Another bit of polling info from Morning Consult: 66% of Sanders supporters don't wanna pay more than $1K in new taxes (or more than 10% of their income) for his economic program

Based on his proposed tax plan, how many of them would exceed that threshold?

 

[Outdoor Miner]

Another bit of polling info from Morning Consult: 66% of Sanders supporters don't wanna pay more than $1K in new taxes (or more than 10% of their income) for his economic program

Ahahahahahahaah

 

[ivysaur12]

Sabato moved 13 House seats towards the Democrats, only one towards the GOP

Here's his article outlining how a Dem takeover might happen http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/house-2016-how-a-democratic-wave-could-happen/

Basically if you took Obama's vote margin from 2012 and give him three extra points, that's enough for him to go from winning 211 districts to 241 - in 2008 (under current district lines) he won in 242. Obviously ticket splitting is still a thing and the change wouldn't be applied universally so that would be no guarantee that this would result in Dems winning 241 seats, but the GOP would then have 56 districts that voted one way for the presidency and another for Congress. If the Democrats picked up barely over half of those they'd win.

I really think if Trump or Cruz were the nominee and as disastrous as everyone is predicting, that could do the trick. The problem with gerrymandering is that if you spread your GOP voters too thin, a wave could make a bunch of incumbents vulnerable who shouldn't be. It just takes three extra points for Democrats to flip 30 seats. This is exactly what happened in 2006, where GOP gerrymanders fell flat in places like Pennsylvania because those R+5 districts suddenly weren't so safe in a D+8 year. As Sabato points out, all but two of the 30 seats that would flip to Obama are in blue states.

I still wouldn't put money on it, but we already have polling suggesting 2016 will be similar to 2008, which could be good news for John McCain or something. I totally believe that Ted Cruz compared to Romney, along with demographic shifts since 2012 could turn Obama's 4 point victory into a 7 point win for Clinton.

Zinke's seat got downgraded.

DENISE JUNEAU IS COMING AND SHE TAKES NO PRISONERS

 

[Retromelon]

I hope whoever keeps banning tesseract has their keyboard catch fire

 

[Holmes]

omg Bernie on Nightly Show talking about his "New York values" because he is from New York...

sheesh

He's really pushing this angle huh?

Sanders does as much pandering as Clinton does but just doesn't get called out on it. He's all about bringing small state and Vermont values to the rest of the country, unless we're near the New York primary, in which case he's all about big city Brooklyn values.

 

[metalslimer]

Another bit of polling info from Morning Consult: 66% of Sanders supporters don't wanna pay more than $1K in new taxes (or more than 10% of their income) for his economic program

this also includes 56% (or 61% for the percentage) of voters age 18-29

This goes well with the idea of Bernie being as much an anti Clinton vote as much people voting for more liberal policies. Especially with the poll showing him winning voters who want a more conservative president. America does not want to be hit with a significantly higher tax burden right now with no guarantees