perfectchaos007
Member
And then the GOP will say "It's not about YOU! It's about OUR party and OUR presidency! Now get out there and debate Hillary!"
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN
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And then the GOP will say "It's not about YOU! It's about OUR party and OUR presidency! Now get out there and debate Hillary!"
The almost completely unknown and mostly unvetted GOP candidate vs Clinton the most overexposed and talked about political figure in recent history.
Yeah im going to call into question a straight GE poll at this point.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
How does kasich even get the nomination? Cruz and Trump supporters aren't going to kasich. Ryan has a better shot.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
The nurses union supporting Sanders donated more to him in the second half of 2015 than the National Education Association (nation's largest union of teachers with more members than the nurse's union) donated to all candidates in the entire 2012 election cycle.
http://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/summary.php?id=d000000064&cycle=2012
The truth is out there. I'm not allowed to say anything concrete because I am under gag.
http://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/summary.php?id=d000000064&cycle=2012
The truth is out there. I'm not allowed to say anything concrete because I am under gag.
Not really.
Macho Madness
Member
Ryan is also the establishment!
User 463088
Banned
Box of Kittens
Banned
Polling on hypothetical GE matchups show people want to vote for Bernie Sanders, the fiery outsider who wants to take on Wall Street corruption and solve America's big problems.
I'm just not so sure people are actually going to want to vote for Bernie Sanders, the socialist who wants to raise your taxes and approves of bread lines and Fidel Castro but not charity. Nor do I think any amount of earnest explaining what all that really means will make much of a difference. Maybe he could pull it off, but I suspect that if he did it would only be because Trump and Cruz are so toxic and it would still be too close for comfort.
I suppose it's not really worth worrying about since he has no shot at the nomination.
And a lot of people may want made in the usa for the more substantial things in their life like cars, whereas they might not care about the small stuff like pants and plates.
Bought and paid for by the nurses. Beholden to big nurses.
Every once in a while, something remarkable comes along to remind us that, despite Obama's positive ratings and decent economic numbers, this was a really winnable election for the GOP, especially against an imperfect Dem nominee.
Trump has been a gift.
God-dayum did we ever dodge a bullet this year.
It's not over yet bro. In the words of Han Solo "don't get cocky".
Agreed.
Also, guys, he's not getting the nomination in a contested convention. He's basically hated by the party establishment for staying in and they've convinced themselves that fuck, I guess Cruz is fine.
Also, Cruz is going to have a strangehold on the delegates. Delegates pick the nominee, not the party.
True, true.. I have to tell myself that a lot.
But I'm breathing a lot easier than I would normally be at this point. I won't entirely relax until she crosses 270.. at which point I'll probably grab my picture of RBG from the wall, hug it, and weep.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Did you not see the $10m unaccounted for "small donations" and the $23mil in violation of fec regulations this february?
Box of Kittens
Banned
I'm no expert on convention rules, but I seem to recall hearing that any rules changes made by the RNC Rules Committee must be ratified by the delegates. If that's the case, Cruz's success in making sure state parties choose delegates that are loyal to him (regardless of which candidate they are pledged to) could be key to determining the prospects of any plan to nominate a dark horse at the convention. If between them Trump and Cruz can command the loyalty of a majority of delegates it would sure seem to be in their interests to keep the eight state rule in effect.
Retromelon
Member
After trump loses there should be a new season of the apprentice and there happens to be a muslim participant, the camera zooms in on trump scowling
Cesare Borgia
Banned
They really fucked this up. Hillary is an incredibly weak candidate to run in a year like this, yet will win handily due to the GOP destroying itself.
I think Kasich is the only republican who could win the WH...but he is far from a perfect candidate and his negatives would rise in an actual campaign. Tying him to Bush and the financial collapse would be very easy. And he clearly has a temper that can be exploited.
No, I was just joking about it. It goes to show that Sanders is getting contributions in questionable ways from large groups. The hypocrisy is rife on the Sander's team.
Unless Trump bribes all the delegates
Can we get a black mexican muslim woman?
Definitely. But it'll be either Trump or Cruz. The fantasy of the White Knight isn't going to happen.
He better. Just make it rain on the convention.
Did you have any documentation supporting this that you could pass on to the media? Or is this a "gravity surrounding X indicates X is there, but can't actually see X" situation.
RustyNails
Member
Kasich is polling like generic R because he hasnt won anything outside of Ohio. I have no reason to believe he will capture PA, WI or MN.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Where there's gravity, there's fire.
I cannot reveal my information yet. The truth is out there.
Box of Kittens
Banned
At the beginning of this process I was terrified of Kasich. I figured he'd have a tough time getting the nomination but if he did he'd be just about the perfect Republican candidate. He's the popular governor of a large swing state with a reputation for being more moderate than he actually is. That makes for a formidable foe. I knew he had something of a temper, but I don't think I realized just how bad it was, or that women were so frequently the target. I still think that had the GOP nominated him he could absolutely win, and he's a far better candidate than Trump or Cruz for sure. I just see him as more vulnerable (particularly against Clinton) than I did before.
Veritigo_X
Member
How is going to convention with the second most delegates and polling at a distant second nationally "perfect" for him?
Will Paul Ryan accept the nomination? Yes, Hillary Clinton is beatable, but if he lost, and allowed himself to be pulled into this farce where the GOP subverts the will of their voters, he risks his political future. At 46, he can wait until 2020 or 2024.
I guess the biggest benefit to Ryan would be that he avoids the primary process and gets a guaranteed nom?
It's fascinating what's going on in the Republican Party today.
Strong organization & hustle (see Colorado as a recent example) and inroads on delegate selections means that if Trump fails to get 1237 (or close enough that he can bribe enough unpledged delegates) then the now free delegates are more likely to vote Cruz than anyone else.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Any situation that has Kasich as the nominee means the GOP has jumped off the deep end and totally alienated not only Trump supporters, but Cruz supporters.
They could even put up the GOP version of Obama, if he existed, and still lose under those circumstances.
They could even put up the GOP version of Obama, if he existed, and still lose under those circumstances.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Like you said though, that's super risky for him and not really worth a "tainted" nom when he could run for reals against her in 2020.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
Bingo. For Trump, it's first ballot or bust. If he can't hit 1237 on the first try, he's not getting more people to switch to him. I wonder just how many delegates are bound to him right that hate his guts. That are just chomping at the bit to run to somebody else's camp.
But I think Trump will hit the number. And if he does, the GOP really gets to decide: Do they publicly and very vocally say that they're overturning the results? Or do they let an open white nationalist run, completely acknowledging that over 50% of their party supports him?
What do you want to get hit in the head with, a crowbar or a pinch bar?
Surprise! It's the same thing!
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
If Ryan hadn't run with Romney I'd say he'd go for it, He's hungry enough and he's drunk enough of the Kool-Aid that he might think defeating Hillary was a sure thing. But I bet 2012 burned him
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Would be a bad idea for republicans to change that rule unless they're confident Kasich or another outsider has enough delegate support to reach 50% of delegates. No reason to chance the contested convention going on for days with dozens of votes until Cruz or Trump takes it anyway.
For the chaos factor, I sort of hope this happens.
Hence why I kept that last paragraph about it being early & Kasich not really being scrutinized. But it's still striking compared to Cruz / Trump.
Naaah; a) I don't think they'll nominate Kasich and b) I suspect this would tighten up significantly if he were the nominee and the GE process started
I know - it's just jarring compared to Trump / Cruz.
Veritigo_X
Member
I get that they technically can, but do they really want to overturn the will of ~50% of GOP voters? A very angry portion of the GOP?
God, I can't wait to watch this shitshow. I'm taking time off work for it.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Polls show Republicans, no matter who they vote for, want whoever has the most delegates to be the candidate, whether they hit the threshold or not.
I'm pretty sure it'll be Trump, and the GOP will just take the loss this year.
I'm pretty sure it'll be Trump, and the GOP will just take the loss this year.
Yeah. I am still in shock that things are falling into place for us so well. I want Cruz in 2016 and then Romney in 2020 or something like that. (I think Ryan goes for it in 2024)
Pics or it didn't happen. :-D
Yeah - friend of mine is a GOP delegate in MO who is technically bound to Trump for first ballot, but is a #NeverTrump person. Per his write-up, the entire MO GOP Delegate slate is all #NeverTrump folks, and most of them are Pro-Cruz (he's pro-Kasich, but he'll vote Cruz on a second ballot). Cruz is playing the contested convention game perfectly. I'm really impressed by how he's handled it.
<goes to take a shower after complimenting Cruz>
Metaphoreus
This is semantics, and nothing more
~35-40%.
They'll still lose the Trump contingent (good riddance, I say), but let's not pretend (as Trumpkins are wont to do) that ignoring an electoral minority is some outrageous anti-democratic move.
The Lamonster
Member
I agree with you. Anything else I'd consider an 'upset.'
balladofwindfishes
Member
If the election is "stolen" from Trump, they'd lose more than just Trump's supporters. A lot of perfectly reasonable Republicans hold the opinion that if the people want Trump, than Trump it should be.
If Cruz "steals" the election from Trump using under the table deals, it's going to get ugly. Real ugly. He already has a reputation for being slimy.
Aaron Strife
Banned
You mean an electoral plurality.
It's only a minority if you look at it strictly in terms of Trump vs. Not Trump, which certainly isn't how elections are held.
Also I'm pretty sure losing 35-40% of their base would be utterly disastrous for Republicans. Have fun trying to win with 3/5ths support. I believe there was a compromise about that once
I really kind of want a T-shirt that says "Democratic Whore" on it. Maybe with a sideways H arrow pointing up at me just to drive the message home. We whores have to stick together, after all.
Metaphoreus
This is semantics, and nothing more
"Stealing" implies that Trump has the nomination in the first place. I'd hope reasonable Republicans would recognize that. If he gets the 1,237 delegates, so be it; otherwise, a Cruz loss is preferable to even a Trump win in the GE.
An electoral plurality that fails to meet the threshold for victory. And running Trump would be a bigger disaster for Republicans going forward than would kicking him to the curb, even at the cost of the election.
How do you figure that AT ALL?
Metaphoreus
This is semantics, and nothing more
balladofwindfishes
Member
I put stealing in quotes because while he'd technically be getting the nomination legitimately, to a large group of people (including Republicans who don't even support him), it would be seen as Cruz stealing the election from Trump, who won with the most votes.
While it's not stealing, it's "stealing" and Cruz would probably get absolutely crushed in the general due to all the Republicans just staying home because their vote doesn't even matter anyway apparently. Future primaries would likely have awful turnout as well.
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