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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
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Nate Silver did a piece on how hard it would be for Sanders to win at this point. Spoiler: very very hard. Like Adam thinking about caucuses. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-really-hard-to-get-bernie-sanders-988-more-delegates/
Trump can be denied the nomination even with enough delegates. The fuckery knows no bounds
I've seen other Hillary videos recently that are unlisted. Maybe it's a mistake?
Same. The more I'm reading, the more likely it seems that they're going to try and steal away his nomination even if he gets the delegate count.
Apparently they are really, really concerned about 2018.
superdeluxe
Member
Clinton talking about 9/11, Clinton worked for federal funding/Got health care for First responders. zadroga act. That is going to play huge on the 19th.
What is his worst remaining state? Oregon? Washington?
Anoregon
The flight plan I just filed with the agency list me, my men, Dr. Pavel here. But only one of you!
Cruz is unlikely to be more (or even as) electable as Trump, though. It's wonderful.
Nate Cohn says its Nebraska.
Snowman Prophet of Doom
Member
I don't know that Trump will run third party, but I do expect that he'll actively and consistently tell all of his supporters not to show up in November to "teach the party a lesson about disrespecting its voters" or something like that.
Oh, that makes sense. Yeah.
Oh, they won't give it to him either. He's possibly more reviled than Trump.
I don't pity them at all. They created this fucking mess and now there's no way to clean it up.
Hill says the three things you need to prove this year to be President are (paraphrasing):
1. Can you get things done to make people's lives better?
2. Can you keep us safe?
3. Can you bring the country together again?
I feel like the first one is aimed at Sanders and the other two are for Trump.
1. Can you get things done to make people's lives better?
2. Can you keep us safe?
3. Can you bring the country together again?
I feel like the first one is aimed at Sanders and the other two are for Trump.
superdeluxe
Member
Clinton has the Apollo going crazy
RastaMentality
Banned
California Senate race:
Still trying to be able to volunteer for Queen but her email newsletter doesn't work. Hope she can get some good margins in November.
Still trying to be able to volunteer for Queen but her email newsletter doesn't work. Hope she can get some good margins in November.
Box of Kittens
Banned
I really don't see how the Republicans could hope to deny the nomination to Trump if he makes it to 1237 delegates. How can they say "lol nope" to their voters and change the rules without creating a massive backlash? Like, massive enough to potentially destroy the party.
FloydtheFathead
Member
That might be the best result.. Cruz Missle gets the nom even if Trump gets the delegate number. Trump runs on a third party ticket to spite them and there you go.
That can work too and might be a more likely scenario than him actually running on a third party ticket.
Atomic Playboy
Member
Donald Trump is incapable of letting even the tiniest of perceived insults go. If they block his nomination, he will go scorched Earth on the entire Republican party. They can't possibly think he'll just wander off quietly into the sunset or line up behind whoever they choose to hand the nomination that he views as rightfully his.
Or tell them to write in his name. Something like that. That might get ~5-10% of the general election voters
superdeluxe
Member
I think 3 can apply to Sanders as well. He hasn't been as successful building coalitions across racial/demographic lines.
RustyNails
Member
Trump is not gonna play silly games if he is denied the nomination. My feeling is he will burn the whole thing down. He will indirectly incite riots and protests through one of his many sleezebag political operatives and force his way through.
superdeluxe
Member
Clinton hitting republicans hard. Definitely iN GE mode.
They will have to eat a shit sandwich either way. Now they have to see what path offers the least destruction... And if they really have good reason to believe that a Trump run ruins the down ticket, they'll take the hit this GE (which they probably know is going to happen regardless).
No one's gonna run third party and expect the average voter to write their name in, not at this point nah. I agree if they push him out at the convention then it's basically going to become civil war within the conservative electorate as he runs a scorched earth campaign about it being rigged.
No reason not to be, paying anything more than lipservice to Bernie and his crew forces her to shift further left from her moderate stance for the general. The only people who think he's still influencing the election are the people still behind him. Same time she's prob doing her best not to offend anymore of his base so it's not like she can afford to play games anymore.
No reason not to be, paying anything more than lipservice to Bernie and his crew forces her to shift further left from her moderate stance for the general. The only people who think he's still influencing the election are the people still behind him. Same time she's prob doing her best not to offend anymore of his base so it's not like she can afford to play games anymore.
The pivot is real. Doesn't need to waste energy on Sanders, once someone's knocked out you stop hitting them.
Abinash117
Member
The GOP would have reconstruct a lot of there policies if they want to have a chance ,like in this article ; the GOP basically is split between the less affluent and the ones that are more-so, Donald Trump's nomination will cause a bigger fracture than there already is. Even if Donald Trump loses the effects he will have inside the GOP will not leave. What there would be left is still a bitterness to the rest of the establishment for vary of reasons and more likely a large distrust will still loom over the party. They already wanted to have the party to beat Obama, but they failed. The strategies that worked current will not work as many of the GOP voters will not trust anything else. Not mention how crucial demographics will despise the rest of the GOP more-so if Trump is the nominee because at that point he represents the Republican Party regardless. How would they strategize for all of that? Would continue their contradicting strategy of having unpopular policies many members shitting on minorities and trying to court those groups? Would some try to become more nationalist and some try to mend the damage, thus causing some more fracturing still? I think they might look more reasonable after Trump by appearing and voting for more moderate positions, but that means looking even more weak and untrustworthy to the less affluent voters.
Whatever the Republicans do after 2016 with a presidential lost I think no matter what they do the party might split similar to a couple centuries ago.
Adam's band "Nine Eleven Wall Street Vagina" playing at the Apollo I see
superdeluxe
Member
This is a good speech by Clinton. She is getting after Sanders now. Talking about his support of NRA, talking about how you need to focus on Racial inequality, not just income inequality. Saying Sanders numbers dont add up, his measures won't pass congress. Says she is not a single issue president.
ThLunarian
Member
I don't understand where many Sanders supporters are getting this narrative that the corporate media is trying to downplay his chances of winning the nomination. Aren't they actually propping him up more than he deserves, just based on polling and the math, in order to make the race seem closer than it is?
From what basis are they deriving this idea that the media is conspiring to make him lose?
I voted for him in my primary and all, and I don't regret my decision, but man these people need a reality check.
From what basis are they deriving this idea that the media is conspiring to make him lose?
I voted for him in my primary and all, and I don't regret my decision, but man these people need a reality check.
blackaroni
Member
Hillary really hates people chanting lol.
superdeluxe
Member
Oh yeah..she is hitting it out of the park. Local interests, specific points of attack, Foreign policy/enconomy/racial inequality. Now wrapping it up with a personal 9/11 story. She has New York in the bag.
Tranqueris
Banned
She probably hates "loud guy screaming random things while it's super quiet" even more, those really seem to throw her off sometimes.
superdeluxe
Member
The 'We Love you Hillary' guy?
Macho Madness
Member
Lol that Reuters tracking poll people like to throw around is junk
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/...ED-DEMOCRATS-Nationally-in-Reuters-Poll-49-48
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/...s-Ten-Points-in-One-Day-in-Reuters-Ipsos-Poll
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/...ED-DEMOCRATS-Nationally-in-Reuters-Poll-49-48
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/...s-Ten-Points-in-One-Day-in-Reuters-Ipsos-Poll
Tranqueris
Banned
Yeah, although it was sort of worse during I think the Florida speech? The guy there kept making her have to hit the breaks a bit, he was basically a human airhorn.
As far as loud chanting goes this cycle, nothing beats the woman having orgasms every time Marco Rubio uttered a word a couple debates back.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
Aren't the delegates that went for people like Jeb and Rubio technically unpledged now? I expect a lot of persuasion
harassment
Yeah, the media is actually forcing the horse race, not stopping it. Look at 538's path to the nom, or that other one that brainchild posted (don't remember the site). They call for massive swings. Brainchild's requires Hillary to only win 6 more contests period, and Nate's will only work if she loses all but 3. Neither of those is feasible at all, and that's before you bring up margins in states that he will win. He's done.
blackaroni
Member
Nah, it's like that every speech she does. When a chant starts she'll cut it off pretty quick.
She's out here taking selfies like a pro.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Sure, but if Trump wins a majority of the delegates and you change the rules after the fact to hand the nomination to someone else, you're taking a huge risk that the voters you just betrayed are going to forgive you. That would most likely hurt massively down ballot and destroy the party's credibility going forward. I also hate to think about this but if they steal the nomination from Trump that blatantly you'd really have to worry about the potential for a violent, chaotic scene to break out in Cleveland.
If Trump has a mere plurality of delegates then there may be a genuine dilemma faced by the party, but if he gets a majority then their best move is probably to emulate what the Democrats did in 1972 when they kept their distance from McGovern.
Sexist pig Chris Matthews commented on this. He commended her though and says she's learning. Fighting the crowd historically has meant she's raised her voice and then started being SHRILL
The part where she said that her opponent thinks she doesn't dream big but nobody does it bigger than New Yorkers who also want to get the job done was pretty fantastic.
I just asked my coworker if he thinks candidates practice taking selfies with different kinds of cameras. Got to be ready for any brand, can't drop it if they want you to do it, got to nail the smile every time. A lot harder than kissing babies!
She definitely knows what we like. Just wish I could have made it out, why did it have to be on a Wednesday?
They probably believe, in this scenario, that most of these voters are new and don't give a shit about the party either way... Certainly not enough to vote in 2018.
But we'll see. They've been spectacularly wrong as of late so they are likely completely out of touch with their voters and reality.
Well, compliment retracted! #yoloThank you. I've always liked that game too.
Funny thing about sans-serif fonts, though:
Snowman Prophet of Doom
Member
I mean, he's also very lazy and stingy when it comes to politics, though, and I don't think he'd invest millions in a third party run where he DEFINITELY won't win, whereas he at least has a shot, however small, as a Republican candidate. I think he'd probably do everything he could to fuck the Republicans over as a private citizen if he got passed over for the nomination, including, as you say, inciting riots and protests through various proxies, but I don't know that he'd run third party because it's a 100% guaranteed loss, whereas simply burning the Republican party to the ground and torching their chances up and down the ticket is both a "win", personally, and doesn't require him to actually lose, electorally.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Apollo rally was nuts. Feeling really good about her here. Gonna volunteer some more
superdeluxe
Member
Yup that was great, like B-dubs say, she definitely knows what to say to the New York voters.
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