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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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Trojita

Trojita

Rapid Response Threadmaker
It's pretty hilarious that the Republican Party essentially has a Kobayashi Maru situation on their hands. There is no way to win.

Democrats easily have electoral college advantage.
Democrats go to the general and win. The Republicans have lost another presidential race. Another 4 years of a democratic candidate with the country going further left.

If Trump wins the Republican Primary and is the Republican Candidate:

He loses and that is a loss for the Republican Party

He wins but the Republican donors don't have their candidate in, most of the current Republican party has shown they don't want him to win; any dissatisfaction with his 4 year presidency would be a stain against the Republicans even if they couldn't control him.

A contested competition happens and Trump either runs third party or convinces enough people to not support Cruz.

The only way to win against the Kobayashi Maru is to cheat. This would include both cheating to get Cruz on the ticket without Trump running against him while also cheating in any way possible, as unlikely to pull off, to get Cruz to win the general.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
adam387 said:
Praise be to her.
Click to expand...

Holy Pantsuit is dull, go with Pantsuit of Turin.

CCS said:
Our Queen, who art in Washington,
Hallowed be thy Name.
Thy Kingdom come.
Thy will be done in America,
As it is in Arizona.
Give us this day our YAAAAAAAS,
And forgive us our shitposts,
As we forgive them that shitpost against us.
And lead us not into revolution,
But deliver us from Bernie Bros.
For thine is the White House,
The Power, and the Media,
For ever and ever.
Hillary.
Click to expand...

Y2Kev said:
Say it 50 times before bed and Saint Bill will visit you in your sleep

Unless you are female

Then say it 50 times before bed and Saint Bill won't visit you in your sleep
Click to expand...

Actually crying at work.

NYCmetsfan said:
I find it funny how much poligaf as changed over the years. It's gotten much gayer. In both ways. And in the best way.

Also what do I call this Hillary girl? Is there a pithy name for Hillary supporters?
Click to expand...

She's your Goldwater Girl.

Edit: @Neo I think Trump (if he gets screwed out of the nomination) would pull a bit better than Ross Perot would. That righteous hate will clash with the religious right in spectacular fashion.
 
A

Anoregon

The flight plan I just filed with the agency list me, my men, Dr. Pavel here. But only one of you!
I

Iolo

Member
sc0la said:
Oh haha. People were talking about thread titles last page in a manner that felt imminent.

PS: lolo you are one of my favorite too hard NES puzzle adventures. Just wanted you and lala to know that.
Click to expand...

Thank you. I've always liked that game too.

Funny thing about sans-serif fonts, though:

XGk2j47.png
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
not to me in certain states.

Kansas would go H 30 T 30 C 40. That would play out in the plains probably something like that with Trump and Cruz interchangeable.

H=Hillary
T=Trump
Cruz=C

However maybe the southern states where Hillary has a higher floor of 40% or more like SC where Obama got 44%.

it could be H 43 T 27 C 27
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Trojita said:
It's pretty hilarious that the Republican Party essentially has a Kobayashi Maru situation on their hands. There is no way to win.

Democrats easily have electoral college advantage.
Democrats go to the general and win. The Republicans have lost another presidential race. Another 4 years of a democratic candidate with the country going further left.
Click to expand...

And I love to point out:

This time, any mainstream Democrat winning the White House is not going to result in a just little incremental scooch over to the left; flipping the high court would be a monumental shift in the country's political landscape. For the past few decades, conservatives have basically had The Final Word on anything controversial that made its way up the judicial process, save for a bone thrown here and there by Anthony Kennedy on certain issues. But not anymore, which is part of why we're seeing such deep depression among intellectuals on the right.
 
G

gcubed

Member
Daniel B·;199622624 said:
This could be just the "NY slice" Bernie's been salivating over :).
Click to expand...

you think they will tape his fingers together so he can't wag them like an asshole anymore?

Not sure the benefit to the Bern since almost all debates have made him look bad
 
H

Holmes

Member
dakini said:
When was the last time the Democratic party won three presidential elections in a row? Was it FDR/Truman?
Click to expand...
Well it was technically FDR in 1940, but Truman was the last time a Democrat was (re-)elected after a previous Democratic administration of more than one term, kind of. LBJ was (re-)elected after a previous Democratic administration of less than one term. But both Truman and LBJ assumed the Presidency after the death of their predecessors so they're not perfect examples of Democrats being elected to the Presidency right after a previous Democratic administration.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
dakini said:
When was the last time the Democratic party won three presidential elections in a row? Was it FDR/Truman?
Click to expand...

Correct. They won five in a row then. The only other time they won three in a row was 1828-1836 with Jackson and Van Buren. On two other occasions (1884-1892 and 1992-2000) they won the popular vote three times in a row but lost one of the three in the electoral college.

The Republicans, despite being the newer party, have had more long streaks. They won six elections in a row from 1860-1880 with Lincoln, Grant, Hayes, and Garfield. However, Democrat Andrew Johnson did become president during this period (he had been elected Vice President on a unity ticket with Lincoln) and the result of the 1876 election was highly controversial. They won four in a row from 1896-1908 with McKinley, Roosevelt, and Taft. They won three in a row from 1820-1828 with Harding, Coolidge, and Hoover. Finally, they won another three in a row from 1980-1988 with Reagan and Bush.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
Trojita said:
It's pretty hilarious that the Republican Party essentially has a Kobayashi Maru situation on their hands. There is no way to win.

Democrats easily have electoral college advantage.
Democrats go to the general and win. The Republicans have lost another presidential race. Another 4 years of a democratic candidate with the country going further left.

If Drumpf wins the Republican Primary and is the Republican Candidate:

He loses and that is a loss for the Republican Party

He wins but the Republican donors don't have their candidate in, most of the current Republican party has shown they don't want him to win; any dissatisfaction with his 4 year presidency would be a stain against the Republicans even if they couldn't control him.

A contested competition happens and Drumpf either runs third party or convinces enough people to not support Cruz.

The only way to win against the Kobayashi Maru is to cheat. This would include both cheating to get Cruz on the ticket without Drumpf running against him while also cheating in any way possible, as unlikely to pull off, to get Cruz to win the general.
Click to expand...

They'd do a lot better if they would at least change their starting assumptions. They keep strategizing from the assumption "We can win this thing" and that's just not likely at all. If they want to repair their party, they need to strategize from the position "We can win this thing in 2020." Then you can formulate a real plan to keep your party in the A tier. The more they let the White House get locked down by Dems, the more money/time/effort the Dems can then transfer down ticket. 2020 is going to be a big one, and if the GOP is a clown car then, they'll lose the House, have already lost the Senate and WH, and then probably lose some governor's mansions too.

dakini said:
When was the last time the Democratic party won three presidential elections in a row? Was it FDR/Truman?
Click to expand...

Yep.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
dakini said:
When was the last time the Democratic party won three presidential elections in a row? Was it FDR/Truman?
Click to expand...

yes. Obama would be the first Democrat to see his party successor take office since Jackson to Burin in 1836. FDR won a third and fourth term for his party but died. Kennedy died. Humphrey, Cox, Gore failed for a third. Stevenson failed for a sixth after Truman won a fifth term for his party. Carter was defeated.
 
A

Anoregon

The flight plan I just filed with the agency list me, my men, Dr. Pavel here. But only one of you!
NeoXChaos said:
yes. Obama would be the first Democrat to see his successor take office since Jackson to Burin in 1836. FDR died. Kennedy died. Humphrey, Cox, Gore and Stevenson failed. Carter was defeated.
Click to expand...

Dat Obama legacy begins immediately. Fuck yeah.
 
H

Holmes

Member
It's really interesting, then, that a Clinton Presidency would be historic as being the first woman President but also for the Democratic party in that regard.
 
M

Maledict

Member
Daniel B·;199622624 said:
This could be just the "NY slice" Bernie's been salivating over :).
Click to expand...

Why on god's earth would anyone think more debates is going to alter the campaign at all? At best they are a no score draw, at worse Clinton comes out ahead. Every single time.

Unless she self combusts onstage about illegal taxi drivers licenses again I honestly don't see the point. The primary process has far, far, *far* too many debates and they need to be drastically reduced in numbere.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
not to me in certain states.

Kansas would go H 30 T 30 C 40. That would play out in the plains probably something like that with Trump and Cruz interchangeable.

H=Hillary
T=Trump
Cruz=C

However maybe the southern states where Hillary has a higher floor of 40% or more like SC where Obama got 44%.

it could be H 43 T 27 C 27
Click to expand...
Yeah Hillary would probably win those high floor/low ceiling southern states. You know, where African-Americans make up like 40% of the electorate but the whites are heavily skewed against Democrats.

Would be nuts to see SC, AL, MS etc. go for a Clinton.
 
A

Abinash117

Member
Maledict said:
Why on god's earth would anyone think more debates is going to alter the campaign at all? At best they are a no score draw, at worse Clinton comes out ahead. Every single time.

Unless she self combusts onstage about illegal taxi drivers licenses again I honestly don't see the point. The primary process has far, far, *far* too many debates and they need to be drastically reduced in numbere.
Click to expand...

Probably looking for a moment to have Hillary get a gaffe to hurt her and a place to reach a wider audience to which his poll numbers go up.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Yeah Hillary would probably win those high floor/low ceiling southern states. You know, where African-Americans make up like 40% of the electorate but the whites are heavily skewed against Democrats.

Would be nuts to see SC, AL, MS etc. go for a Clinton.
Click to expand...

As of the 2010 census, MS had the highest percentage of African-Americans in the country. The Delta is the only reason we have a single Democrat (Bennie!) in our delegation. With enough splitting on the Right (say the white vote goes 2:1 in either direction) the Delta and the immigrant population on the Gulf Coast could tip it for Hillary.
 
I

Iolo

Member
Macho Madness said:
Marquette University Poll

Wisconsin

Cruz 40
Trump 30
Kasich 21

Sanders 49
Clinton 45
Click to expand...

Interesting. Nate's delegate path has Sanders needing +16 in WI and Polichart's crazy path has him needing +14. Plus 4 would be a bad result (not for donations though!)

I'm expecting +10 in the end though.
 
P

potatohead

Member
Trojita said:
It's pretty hilarious that the Republican Party essentially has a Kobayashi Maru situation on their hands. There is no way to win.

Democrats easily have electoral college advantage.
Democrats go to the general and win. The Republicans have lost another presidential race. Another 4 years of a democratic candidate with the country going further left.

If Trump wins the Republican Primary and is the Republican Candidate:

He loses and that is a loss for the Republican Party

He wins but the Republican donors don't have their candidate in, most of the current Republican party has shown they don't want him to win; any dissatisfaction with his 4 year presidency would be a stain against the Republicans even if they couldn't control him.

A contested competition happens and Trump either runs third party or convinces enough people to not support Cruz.

The only way to win against the Kobayashi Maru is to cheat. This would include both cheating to get Cruz on the ticket without Trump running against him while also cheating in any way possible, as unlikely to pull off, to get Cruz to win the general.
Click to expand...

So what you're saying is....

No matter what the Repubs do they are fucked?

giphy.gif


I fucking love the confirmation of all their worst elements slowly coalescing into one and destroying their party from the inside.

It is brilliance, true karma, a real climactic storybook ending :)
 
The Lamonster

The Lamonster

Member
PoliGAF, I've been busy these past several weeks and haven't followed things very closely.

Please tell me Sanders still has no chance and Trump is going to win enough delegates to get a legit nomination...

Trump is like a dream come true opponent. It just gets better and better.
 
A

Anoregon

The flight plan I just filed with the agency list me, my men, Dr. Pavel here. But only one of you!
The Lamonster said:
PoliGAF, I've been busy these past several weeks and haven't followed things very closely.

Please tell me Sanders still has no chance and Trump is going to win enough delegates to get a legit nomination...
Click to expand...

The first is objectively true, the second is only very likely.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
The Lamonster said:
PoliGAF, I've been busy these past several weeks and haven't followed things very closely.

Please tell me Sanders still has no chance and Trump is going to win enough delegates to get a legit nomination...

Trump is like a dream come true opponent. It just gets better and better.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure on trump anymore.
 
The Lamonster

The Lamonster

Member
Anoregon said:
The first is objectively true, the second is only very likely.
Click to expand...
Okay, thanks. Sounds like things haven't changed much in the last month then.

OmniOne said:
Queen is killing it in leather. yaaaaaaassss.
Click to expand...
link?

Y2Kev said:
I'm not sure on trump anymore.
Click to expand...
I will feel safe as long as he has a strong lead in delegates going into the convention. The GOP would be foolish to deny their voters the candidate they selected. Looks like Cruz is still ~300 delegates behind Trump according to AP.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Trumps not winning Wisconsin but he still got more states later to make up for it.

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 11m11 minutes ago Washington, DC
Wisconsin is Trump's second worst remaining state in our demographic model. On 3/15, I think it would have been Cruz 41, Trump 35, K 16, R 8
Click to expand...
 
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