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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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But, seriously, wasn't PPP supposed to be in the field this weekend?
 
I don't think that makes a lot of sense. Trump was pro-Iraq War. He has made up his current position that he was against it out of whole cloth. There are tapes out there with him supporting it, including on the Howard Stern show. There's no real evidence he was against it pre-War.

And Trump represents money in politics. I think the idea that he is for campaign finance reform is really odd: A) he is certain to take money in the general (because you need to) and B) any judge he appoints would never overturn Citizens United.

Hillary has said she would appoint a judge to overturn CU and also that the Iraq War vote was a mistake. Progressives that hold this against her in favor of Trump are misguided.

The standard retort to Hillary saying she'll appoint a justice who will overturn Citizens United is that it's just pandering and she doesn't really mean it. Which makes no sense since, like issues around voter suppression, her stated position is actually in her own self interest. Even if you take the most uncharitable view possible, that she's only in it for herself, SuperPACs are a net benefit to the Republicans. There's just no incentive for her to try and preserve Citizens United. Of course, others have noted the irony behind the history of the Citizens United case.

To be honest about Trump, it seems like a number of people want to project whatever their own views are on anyone they deem outside the political establishment. That seems to account for some of the "Sanders then Trump" contingent, in particular the ones who argue that Trump's views are largely in alignment with their own as Sanders supporters.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
This Trump delegate debacle is fascinating to me. He obviously has zero chance if he doesn't win first ballot. If he ends up say 20 short and ends up losing the nomination, there will be a firestorm.

I mean, the guy is pulling about 50% nationally with republican voters. The RNC is literally going to throw out half of their voters' votes. It is amazing to watch.
 
I don't think it's fair to call her stupid - it's about not wanting to vote for someone who you don't believe shares your values. This continued argument that you should just suck it up and vote for someone you don't agree with is ridiculous.
Welcome to the Democratic Party. You think I was enthusiastic about my Dukakis vote?

LOL at Those West Virginia delegate rules. Trump is screwed.
Explain. It's always funny/sad to hear how my home state is messing up.
 

darkside31337

Tomodachi wa Mahou
This Trump delegate debacle is fascinating to me. He obviously has zero chance if he doesn't win first ballot. If he ends up say 20 short and ends up losing the nomination, there will be a firestorm.

I mean, the guy is pulling about 50% nationally with republican voters. The RNC is literally going to throw out half of their voters' votes. It is amazing to watch.

If the guy doesn't have the ability and organization to run a campaign and follow the rules that have been in place for a year plus how does he have the ability to run a country as president?

Honestly have little pity for him if he loses by that little because it'll be completely his own fault and no one elses.

Some of the rules are pretty insane though like West Virginia, no defense for that. But the other states where hes getting crushed by the process is simply him being completely unprepared.
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
Just saw someone state that Clinton's 3mil in donations to the Clinton Foundation were "to herself"

Is this really how far we've fallen? Really?
 
This Trump delegate debacle is fascinating to me. He obviously has zero chance if he doesn't win first ballot. If he ends up say 20 short and ends up losing the nomination, there will be a firestorm.

I mean, the guy is pulling about 50% nationally with republican voters. The RNC is literally going to throw out half of their voters' votes. It is amazing to watch.

It will be 1968 again. But this time with a much higher percentage of gun owners.
 

royalan

Member
Just saw someone state that Clinton's 3mil in donations to the Clinton Foundation were "to herself"

Is this really how far we've fallen? Really?

The only comfort I'm taking right now is that, at least on the left, the candidate that is encouraging a large swath (not all, but a lot) of his voters to remained uninformed on how the American government works is thoroughly losing.
 
I thought Clooney explained himself well on the issue:

CgP1ksDUUAAtYyO

Clooney is a smart guy, really upends the stereotypes about celeb political backers.

"The system" isn't going to be blown up anytime soon, and the "revolution" has clearly failed. It seems quite clear that when Sanders loses his fervent supporters will basically say "well, that's that" and move back to being apathetic/not caring. Nevermind that a Supreme Court seat is open right now which could hold the key to destroying Citizen's United. They don't care about the process, so I have no interest in giving them any sense of importance as if they hold the key to November. No.
 
Just saw someone state that Clinton's 3mil in donations to the Clinton Foundation were "to herself"

Is this really how far we've fallen? Really?

They'll do anything to attack her. Seriously, if I had her money and my own charity I'd donate to my own charity as well. At least I know where the money is going and is actually going to a good cause, unlike some of these "charities" out there.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Clooney is a smart guy, really upends the stereotypes about celeb political backers.

"The system" isn't going to be blown up anytime soon, and the "revolution" has clearly failed. It seems quite clear that when Sanders loses his fervent supporters will basically say "well, that's that" and move back to being apathetic/not caring. Nevermind that a Supreme Court seat is open right now which could hold the key to destroying Citizen's United. They don't care about the process, so I have no interest in giving them any sense of importance as if they hold the key to November. No.

More or less where I am.

They'll do anything to attack her. Seriously, if I had her money and my own charity I'd donate to my own charity as well. At least I know where the money is going and is actually going to a good cause, unlike some of these "charities" out there.

It's like people complaining that Bill and Melinda Gates give money to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
If the guy doesn't have the ability and organization to run a campaign and follow the rules that have been in place for a year plus how does he have the ability to run a country as president?

Honestly have little pity for him if he loses by that little because it'll be completely his own fault and no one elses.

Some of the rules are pretty insane though like West Virginia, no defense for that. But the other states where hes getting crushed by the process is simply him being completely unprepared.

I'm not defending Trump in the least and have said numerous time that if he had put a little more effort into this, he'd run away with the nomination.

Now, that said, the rules are ridiculous. Whomever has the most delegates heading into the convention should win the nomination. It makes absolutely no sense otherwise, especially when the republican party is going to basically ignore half of their voter base. It is a bizarre rule that takes power away from the average American voter.
 

OuterLimits

Member
Yeah, if the CBS poll in California is correct, it definitely shows Trump surging some. A couple weeks ago, he was below 40% and barely above Cruz. You would think he would gain a couple more points if he does well in the NE states coming up. He could get a ton of delegates in California if he is polling around 50%.

So what is causing Cruz to maybe be losing some ground in many national polls, and in California? Two weeks ago he was only down 3 in the Fox national Poll and Rueters poll. He lost 11 points in the Fox Poll and Trump is up 16 again in the Rueters poll. Reuters mentioned Cruz lost the most support in the SE, but saw a downward trend nationally. My totally amateur theory is Colorado may be hurting him. Cruz bragging about it while the Colorado GOP tweeted out "We did it, NeverTrump" had terrible optics. Plus Trump has been more reserved(for him anyway) since Wisconsin and hasn't made blunders.

Perhaps Cruz gets damaged enough that Trump wins enough of the vote in coming states to get enough delegates to win. If this polling is correct, he will get damn close.
 
Now, that said, the rules are ridiculous. Whomever has the most delegates heading into the convention should win the nomination. It makes absolutely no sense otherwise, especially when the republican party is going to basically ignore half of their voter base. It is a bizarre rule that takes power away from the average American voter.

Why don't people realize that there is absolutely no requirement for the party nomination process to listen to the will of voters? It's a nomination for a private party, not a right enshrined by the Constitution. Don't like what the Republican Party is doing in the nomination process? Don't vote for members of that party. Don't like the Democrats use of Superdelegates? Don't vote for members of that party. This outrage that a private party isn't beholden to the will of the people is based on a complete misunderstanding of how parties work and it needs to stop.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Honestly, Trump's entirely incompetent campaign is great for two reasons.

1. It is a perfect example of how Trump would be a used car salesman and not successful without his daddy's money because Trump is a dumbass.

2. It's going to make Trump's victory even more humiliating to the GOP. They can't stop Trump even though Trump is the worst politician other than Ben Carson in the last 70 years.
 
Does trump losing delegates in georgia + the whole colorado/wyoming thing make it much harder for him to get to 1237? Or were colorado/wyoming expected sweeps?
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
That article is trash. Not the content, although that too, but the damn writing. Fuck. Salons business model is fraud and lazy writing.

Salon's articles are always 5 or 6 graphs longer than they need to be for no reason other than, hell I don't know why they're all so damn wordy.
 

Sianos

Member
Yeah, if the CBS poll in California is correct, it definitely shows Trump surging some. A couple weeks ago, he was below 40% and barely above Cruz. You would think he would gain a couple more points if he does well in the NE states coming up. He could get a ton of delegates in California if he is polling around 50%.

So what is causing Cruz to maybe be losing some ground in many national polls, and in California? Two weeks ago he was only down 3 in the Fox national Poll and Rueters poll. He lost 11 points in the Fox Poll and Trump is up 16 again in the Rueters poll. Reuters mentioned Cruz lost the most support in the SE, but saw a downward trend nationally. My totally amateur theory is Colorado may be hurting him. Cruz bragging about it while the Colorado GOP tweeted out "We did it, NeverTrump" had terrible optics. Plus Trump has been more reserved(for him anyway) since Wisconsin and hasn't made blunders.

Perhaps Cruz gets damaged enough that Trump wins enough of the vote in coming states to get enough delegates to win. If this polling is correct, he will get damn close.
Yeah, Cruz's unseemly bragging and general lack of charisma is not doing him any favors. Hopefully his manipulative organizational skills are enough to lead to such a situation that the convention still shifts into maximum fuckery overdrive.

Maybe after his wins in the northeast Trump will start feeling himself again and in his fervor say something particularly stupid even by his standards again.

I think Indiana will decide the likelihood of the contested convention and California's margins will seal the deal. That, and how well Cruz can undermine Pennsylvania's delegate selection as well.
 
I have no idea what the the controversy could possibly be about that Hillary video. Fucking what?
Bernie's son has three adopted children. The story goes Hillary is attacking them for not being his real grandchildren. It's so laughable, especially with Hillary's record on the adoption system and, you know, not being a terrible human being.
 
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