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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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Seriously what is the point of this?

This threads become a respository of non-sense. You guys don't have to post if nothing is of value.

Its become increasingly boring to read this thread. Its all link drops, and too often blind links.

I can't wait till election season is over
I'm bored and same.
 

ApharmdX

Banned
Hence our comments about the extinction level event required for him to win either NY or MD. :-D

Yeah. I think NY is more favorable to him, though. MD is pretty liberal but we've got a closed primary plus our Dem voters are heavily AA. I'm still psyched for next Tuesday anyway.
 
Michigan was the only surprise, I'm pretty sure general PoliGAF consensus has been pretty on the nose otherwise. And MI was based on faulty polling due to 2008 being an anomaly.

But sure, keep deluding yourself.

Wisconsin and South Carolina were really off too. I think polls are underestimating Clinton, going by all the possible variables that help her (independent voter SUPPRESSION, specially).
 
I really really hope it's somehow 70 - 30 tomorrow and Bernie drops out

I know it won't happen, but man. We don't need anymore crap from the Bernie Tea Party

I'm not gonna lie, I'd be interested in the reaction from my friends in Brooklyn. Only one of them has expressed hatred for Hillary. The others love Bernie but seemingly by default. I haven't got the patience heart to break it to them that he's kind of awful.
 

In short, in addition to hope and idealism and thirst for progressive change (which I support and share), the Sanders campaign has also awakened a dormant left-wing Tea Party that I didn’t believe existed, but that lives in a fever swamp of conspiracy-thinking and epistemic closure and rejection of fact and binary, “us v. them” thinking. And that terrifies me. The mere fact that the left’s goals are goals I largely share doesn’t make their behavior or refusal to deal in reality any more appealing than the hard right’s similar behavior. I don’t want a leftwing analogue to the extreme right’s lunacy. But that is what Sanders has unleashed among some of his supporters. In fact he’s stoking and exploiting it, and it’s dangerous.

Fucking preach

I basically followed the same path she did and we both are at the same logical conclusion of Sanders.
 

pigeon

Banned
Seriously what is the point of this?

This threads become a respository of non-sense. You guys don't have to post if nothing is of value.

Its become increasingly boring to read this thread. Its all link drops, and too often blind links.

I can't wait till election season is over

Honestly it's an outgrowth of the same process that turned it into a Hillary echo chamber. Everybody who disagrees is basically not in the thread any more so there's little to discuss.

But yeah, I don't know where this blind link shit came from.* Stop doing that shit people, post some goddamn commentary.


* Yes I do, it was NeoXChaos.
 

ApharmdX

Banned
They really hate George Clooney

This is the angle the Bernie campaign is going with.

Ugh, just go away. Stop embarrassing yourself. You're doing real harm to the Liberal movement and you don't even realize it.

Hating on Clooney is uncalled for. While he supports Hillary, he's been pretty fair and honest. I mean, these are Clooney quotes from the weekend:

“I really like Bernie. I think what he’s saying in this election is important, if you’re a Democrat, to have these conversations. I hope he stays in for the entire election. And if he were to win the nomination I will do whatever I can including, if asked, a fundraiser like this, again to try to give him or Hillary – I hope she wins – a Senate. Because we see what happens when a president tries to get their Supreme Court justice confirmed without the Senate.”

(on the money raised by him for Clinton)
“Yes, I think it’s an obscene amount of money,” Clooney responded. “You know, we had some protesters last night when we pulled up in San Francisco — and they’re right to protest, they’re absolutely right, it’s an obscene amount of money. The Sanders campaign, when they talk about it, is absolutely right. It’s ridiculous that we should have this kind of money in politics, I agree.”

Ultimately it's about getting Democrats back in control in all three branches rather than an ideological war. Though I think that the contested primary should continue to the convention, of course. I agree with Clooney.
 

Slayven

Member
Damn that was a good article
ith the warning that this post is not a comparative assessment of the two candidates or of their campaign platforms; I’m well aware that Sanders has strengths and Clinton has weaknesses, and I’m not trying to persuade anyone here to vote for her over him; what I’m trying to explain is how and why I have come to dislike him so — even though of course I’ll vote for him in the general (and even campaign for him) if I have to:
I see she mentioned Sanders on Twitter without praising him
 
Honestly it's an outgrowth of the same process that turned it into a Hillary echo chamber. Everybody who disagrees is basically not in the thread any more so there's little to discuss.

But yeah, I don't know where this blind link shit came from.* Stop doing that shit people, post some goddamn commentary.


* Yes I do, it was NeoXChaos.

I hate it.

I mean in my personal life I have wonderful conversations in bars and at events with bernie people. But here, even though I share support, I see to often people intentionally chased out. With the excuse that they're not posting fact check linked, bringing stupid points, etc. There is a way to engage that.

I guess the big problem is it just is overwhelming the amount of people to respond (you guys can hold off if someone has already posted the same argument you made!) but its sad. I hope we revert back to longwinded posts about SCOTUS technicalities.


That and the meme-yness of the internet has also as infected here and while I'm not blamless for that it hurts discussion. Too often its a contest of who can crack the best joke not who responds the best. That's not only a poligaf or gaf problem but an outgrowth of twitter, and a relatively powerless millennial class.

And seriously with blind links. Post a summary or what the article is about. It takes two seconds. Especially with tweets. That and don't post HA goodman articles, like what is the point? We know his shtick.
 
I know the BernieBrigade will find it and shit post it soon, sadly...

Already started and people are already going conspiracy theory on her.

I really need to save that link, its basically what I've wanted to write out (or rather a far longer version than I've already done in the past)
 

studyguy

Member
See a lot of shit getting thrown about provisional ballots regarding NYC (and rejecting them) on social media... do people not have a way of checking if their vote was counted in NYC if taken in as provisional?

We literally have a site that shows the status of our provisional/mail in out here in CA for my county as well as a number of other counties, or at the very least we have a number to call.

I mean I changed my address once during an election year and had to take a provisional since it would be off otherwise, still got to make sure it was counted easy peasy. Feel bad for poll workers.
 
Punch in the gut Dems. A nice man calls in, born in 1922. Been voting for dems his whole life and didn't realize he wouldn't be able to vote in the primary because he isn't registered a dem.

It's really a two sided coin, but NY should have give more time to ensure that people were informed that they had to be a dem back in October. Especially people pushing 100.
 
Well the Campagin is already at the stage of passing skewed polls as fundraiser emails.

A poll that has Bernie within 6 points.

By assuming 72% of the NY Democratic primary is white.
Does anyone remember when the polls had Obama winning so much, that even the unskewed polls started to show Obama winning, and the guy had to re-unskew them to produce a Romney win?

Fucking classic.
 

Prologue

Member
It's your civic duty not theirs.

LOL

You have to update your registration when you move.

Infrequent voters are typically not primary voters, so the campaigns don't care that much during the primaries. They have limited resources and, honestly, I doubt either campaign thought the nomination would still be contested in April back when the deadline to register was.

Eh, not like the Democrats need it in New York unless he's living in a swing district.

That being said you should always vote. I've probably missed a few local elections (school board and shit) but I've voted in every federal/state election since 2010. Also voted in the special election for mayor in 2011, of course that was mostly because my dad was a candidate.


I'm sorry but thats bull crap. My credit cards expire and I get new ones in the mail. Same thing with my car insurance, same thing with my license. All like clock work. But my ability to vote, my fundamental right, isn't handled the same or even better? Why isn't it automatically updated after I update my address on my license? Why isn't it renewed automatically, even if I haven't voted recently?

Just seems wrong imo. But perhaps the system is built that way to prevent young voters from going back in like now.
 
To me, the most telling thing has been the signals that are coming from both campaigns today. Bernie's argument on the programs yesterday was that he didn't have to win NY or California to win the primary. That's factually wrong, but an interesting way to set expectations.

Brian Fallon, Hillary's press secretary who has a Twitter if you're a snarky bitch like me, has been acting fairly confident. Annie Karni, who follows Queen for Politico, has been mentioning how Bernie's campaign is doubling down on "Anything around 40 is a win!" and Hillary's people are wondering how much she has to win by to get people to stop this "moral victory" talk. (Hint: There is no margin in the world that would stop this....)

When we add the timing of that Bernie letter...I think it's pretty clear where the campaigns feel that they are. Doesn't mean that's where we're going to end up, but it seems like this is where we've landed.

So, if Bernie loses, what do you think will be the excuse? Fraud? The October deadline? The shorter hours in places that aren't NYC?
 
I'm sorry but thats bull crap. My credit cards expire and I get new ones in the mail. Same thing with my car insurance, same thing with my license. All like clock work. But my ability to vote, my fundamental right, isn't handled the same or even better? Why isn't it automatically updated after I update my address on my license? Why isn't it renewed automatically, even if I haven't voted recently?

Just seems wrong imo. But perhaps the system is built that way to prevent young voters from going back in like now.
I agree that the system should be as open as possible. MN has same day voter registration and we have the highest participation in the country.

That being said, you really do need to be willing to meet "the system" halfway if you want to participate in it. If you move, you need to let the post office know you did by filling change of address forms. Same with your bank or employer. Why should where you're registered to vote be any different? Because odds are, you're still registered at your old address.
 

Armaros

Member
Wait, what is this about? I must have missed something

He has repeatedly accepted donations that either go beyond the individual contribution limit for direct donations ($2700) or come from foreign nationals.

Both are big no-no's. He needs to refund the excess and non allowed donations back and report to the FEC that he has done so.

So far his campaign really hasn't and the list of illegal donations keeps growing.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I'm sorry but thats bull crap. My credit cards expire and I get new ones in the mail. Same thing with my car insurance, same thing with my license. All like clock work. But my ability to vote, my fundamental right, isn't handled the same or even better? Why isn't it automatically updated after I update my address on my license? Why isn't it renewed automatically, even if I haven't voted recently?

Just seems wrong imo. But perhaps the system is built that way to prevent young voters from going back in like now.

It's also that you haven't voted since 2008 and they purge anyone who hasn't voted in 5 years or more to keep dead people off the rolls.

I agree that the system should be as open as possible. MN has same day voter registration and we have the highest participation in the country.

That being said, you really do need to be willing to meet "the system" halfway if you want to participate in it. If you move, you need to let the post office know you did by filling change of address forms. Same with your bank or employer. Why should where you're registered to vote be any different? Because odds are, you're still registered at your old address.

He would be if he had voted at some point in 2008. That's what's really got him here. He basically just did everything you do if you don't care about voting.
 

ampere

Member
And seriously with blind links. Post a summary or what the article is about. It takes two seconds. Especially with tweets. That and don't post HA goodman articles, like what is the point? We know his shtick.

I think we should definitely discourage blind link posting. Even short commentary is fine, but it's better to say something to start up discussion.

And yes, posting really really bad articles probably doesn't need to be done. I mean we don't post Breitbart articles because... yea. Bernie Tea Party tier stuff deserves the same treatment
 
Punch in the gut Dems. A nice man calls in, born in 1922. Been voting for dems his whole life and didn't realize he wouldn't be able to vote in the primary because he isn't registered a dem.

It's really a two sided coin, but NY should have give more time to ensure that people were informed that they had to be a dem back in October. Especially people pushing 100.

I don't have a problem with closed primaries, but the deadlines to register and (especially) to change parties are way too far in advance of the election. A lot of people aren't really paying attention to that sort of thing until the election approaches and while you can say they should be paying attention people lead busy lives. I don't really buy the argument that New York needs such a long lead time because it has a large population. So does Illinois and we have same-day registration.
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Honestly it's an outgrowth of the same process that turned it into a Hillary echo chamber. Everybody who disagrees is basically not in the thread any more so there's little to discuss.

But yeah, I don't know where this blind link shit came from.* Stop doing that shit people, post some goddamn commentary.


* Yes I do, it was NeoXChaos.

Even I've been taking long breaks - especially after the idiocy that was people freaking about Sanders going to the Vatican and being complete morons about why they had to take a private plane, what the cost was (which was an uncited estimate based off of a 50% increase on what NBA teams use), etc etc. That's when I realized this thread was turning into the Hillary equivalent of SandersReddit when there's nothing going on.

I hate it.

I mean in my personal life I have wonderful conversations in bars and at events with bernie people. But here, even though I share support, I see to often people intentionally chased out. With the excuse that they're not posting fact check linked, bringing stupid points, etc. There is a way to engage that.

I guess the big problem is it just is overwhelming the amount of people to respond (you guys can hold off if someone has already posted the same argument you made!) but its sad. I hope we revert back to longwinded posts about SCOTUS technicalities.


That and the meme-yness of the internet has also as infected here and while I'm not blamless for that it hurts discussion. Too often its a contest of who can crack the best joke not who responds the best. That's not only a poligaf or gaf problem but an outgrowth of twitter, and a relatively powerless millennial class.

And seriously with blind links. Post a summary or what the article is about. It takes two seconds. Especially with tweets. That and don't post HA goodman articles, like what is the point? We know his shtick.

Bingo. I can't imagine what '08 would have been like if Twitter and social media were back then what they are now. The echo chambers that social media and the internet have created terrifies me on a societal level - our generation (older millenials) and older (up to like the older end of baby boomers) are definitely not capable of handling these tools with any kind of care or precision. This seems obvious to me. The complete destruction of empathy when you go online makes me think that there's some fundamental breakdown of how we communicate when it's done online versus when it has been done via other means.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Holy shit Bernie, the fuck are you doing.

One key difference between this instance and his usual campaign modus operandi:
In this case, if it ends-up litigated, his campaign will be required to produce evidence. He won't get away with walking into the courtroom whilst dramatically shrieking "CORRUPTION!" without having something to substantiate his charge.
 
One key difference between this instance and his usual campaign modus operandi:
In this case, his campaign will be required to produce evidence. He won't get away with walking into the courtroom whilst dramatically shrieking "CORRUPTION!" without having something to substantiate his charge.

...So why is he doing this then?
 

Trouble

Banned
One key difference between this instance and his usual campaign modus operandi:
In this case, if it ends-up litigated, his campaign will be required to produce evidence. He won't get away with walking into the courtroom whilst dramatically shrieking "CORRUPTION!" without having something to substantiate his charge.

It's just a letter, isn't it? Has he actually filed a lawsuit?
 

CCS

Banned
To me, the most telling thing has been the signals that are coming from both campaigns today. Bernie's argument on the programs yesterday was that he didn't have to win NY or California to win the primary. That's factually wrong, but an interesting way to set expectations.

Brian Fallon, Hillary's press secretary who has a Twitter if you're a snarky bitch like me, has been acting fairly confident. Annie Karni, who follows Queen for Politico, has been mentioning how Bernie's campaign is doubling down on "Anything around 40 is a win!" and Hillary's people are wondering how much she has to win by to get people to stop this "moral victory" talk. (Hint: There is no margin in the world that would stop this....)

When we add the timing of that Bernie letter...I think it's pretty clear where the campaigns feel that they are. Doesn't mean that's where we're going to end up, but it seems like this is where we've landed.

So, if Bernie loses, what do you think will be the excuse? Fraud? The October deadline? The shorter hours in places that aren't NYC?


Whenever I see the name Brian Fallon my thoughts immediately go to the singer from Gaslight Anthem :p
 

Sianos

Member
It's time to learn about the force behind #GamerGate and Trump:

http://www.vox.com/2016/4/18/11434098/alt-right-explained

Remember, people that masturbate to anime girls in Nazi uniforms are taking over the Republican Party.
Glad to see the spotlight cast on the alt-right. This is the future if the Republican party whether the establishment likes it or not - I await the cries that the establishment didn't coalesce around Trump come his November loss if he can cobble together a majority before the convention.

Especially happy to see reference to Scott Alexander and his Anti-Reactionary FAQ. I recommend everyone checks it out, it's long but worth your time.

http://slatestarcodex.com/2013/10/20/the-anti-reactionary-faq/

Speaking of party shifts, I hope the left continues to prepare for the impact that technology will have on current paradigms and doesn't fuck up and fall apart before we can get a solid foundation in place for the coming automation and biotechnology revolutions. That, and of course a continued support towards the promotion of social progress.
 

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
He has repeatedly accepted donations that either go beyond the individual contribution limit for direct donations ($2700) or come from foreign nationals.

Both are big no-no's. He needs to refund the excess and non allowed donations back and report to the FEC that he has done so.

So far his campaign really hasn't and the list of illegal donations keeps growing.

Was there an announcement? Article or something? I feel like every time Hillary scratches her ass there is a new thread, but this seems pretty news worthy to me.
 

Armaros

Member
Was there an announcement? Article or something? I feel like every time Hillery scratches her ass there is a new thread, but this seems pretty news worthy to me.

its public letters from the FEC to the campaign, there are links to them a few pages back.

Or just google it. Im on my phone atm so links are annoying >.<, especially trying to pull stuff from the FEC website.
 
They really hate George Clooney

This is the angle the Bernie campaign is going with.

Ugh, just go away. Stop embarrassing yourself. You're doing real harm to the Liberal movement and you don't even realize it.

They're having no impact on the liberal movement because they aren't a part of the liberal movement, and in a couple months you won't hear from them again. I'm tired of the alleged importance of these people being inflated. They don't matter and will go back to reading Ron Paul junk e-mails very soon.
 
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