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[Box of Kittens]

Does anyone remember when the polls had Obama winning so much, that even the unskewed polls started to show Obama winning, and the guy had to re-unskew them to produce a Romney win?

Fucking classic.

As I recall, Dean Chambers (the Unskewed Polls guy) had been re-weighting polls to match Rasmussen's partisan breakdowns, then decided that Rasmussen's were "skewed" as well.

My favorite part was when he started conducting his own online poll. It was literally one of those polls that anyone could fill out, but he thought that applying some partisan and demographic weights would make it just as good as a real scientific poll.

Then after the election he decided that Obama only won through voter fraud, and as "evidence" noted that several precincts in Cleveland and Philadelphia recorded zero votes for Romney. If you think about it for just one second, just about the dumbest way to commit fraud would be to transfer all the votes in a precinct from one candidate to another. All you'd have to do to expose the fraud is find the Romney voters in that precinct.

I did still think a lot of the snark thrown at conservatives for convincing themselves that Romney was winning that election was unfair, though. Unskewed Polls was obviously moronic, but there was a lot of sneering over "facts have a liberal bias" and how it was so obvious that Obama was winning because the polls showed him winning and you'd have to be dumb not to see that and liberals would never fall for it. The truth, however, is that supporters of losing candidates, regardless of party, will play those kinds of tricks on themselves. As bad as "Romney's winning independents so he must be winning overall" may have been, it wasn't really worse than "undecideds break for the challenger, so any poll that has Bush under 50 is really showing a Kerry lead." And certainly I'd argue that Seth Abramson claiming that Arizona is a Sanders win because Clinton's margin came from early votes is actually more delusional than anything Dean Chambers came up with four years ago.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Blind links are awful.

Pictures of articles are awful.

YouTube links to your alt-media "news" source are awful.

Yuck.

I'm sorry but thats bull crap. My credit cards expire and I get new ones in the mail. Same thing with my car insurance, same thing with my license. All like clock work. But my ability to vote, my fundamental right, isn't handled the same or even better? Why isn't it automatically updated after I update my address on my license? Why isn't it renewed automatically, even if I haven't voted recently?

Just seems wrong imo. But perhaps the system is built that way to prevent young voters from going back in like now.

I mean it doesn't actually seem particularly hard to register or change registration.

And it kind of affects everyone not just young voters. This isn't some ID law for instance.

So, what is it about young voters...

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Bernie supporters hate Hillary even though Hillary voted with Bernie 93% of the time:

Clinton voters' views of Sanders in NBC/WSJ: 60% positive, 19% negative

Sanders voters' views of Clinton: 40% positive, 41% negative

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/722170529629782017

 

[SlimySnake]

The October deadline?

this.
he will say that he does better with independents and they didnt have time to switch.

 

[User 85168]

As someone who has no clues about anything NY related, this from 538 was pretty interesting to read through.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/new-york-primary-republican-2016-election/

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

They're having no impact on the liberal movement because they aren't a part of the liberal movement, and in a couple months you won't hear from them again. I'm tired of the alleged importance of these people being inflated. They don't matter and will go back to reading Ron Paul junk e-mails very soon.

I was thinking about the implications of Bernie's coalition of far left people try and do a tea party maneuver.

but then I remember the Tea Party was amazingly funded by billionaires on the right and was actually really organized.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Even though Bernie voters hate Hillary now for reasons, Hillary still murders Trump by 11 points:

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/722167828867117058

 

[shinra-bansho]

Paul Ryan beats Clinton! Disarray.

 

[Box of Kittens]

I'm sorry but thats bull crap. My credit cards expire and I get new ones in the mail. Same thing with my car insurance, same thing with my license. All like clock work. But my ability to vote, my fundamental right, isn't handled the same or even better? Why isn't it automatically updated after I update my address on my license? Why isn't it renewed automatically, even if I haven't voted recently?

Just seems wrong imo. But perhaps the system is built that way to prevent young voters from going back in like now.

I don't think it's anything intentional in terms of voter suppression but situations like this are one reason why I'm in favor of same day voter registration. I even took advantage of it once when I had moved to a new address within the same city a couple of months before election day and I figured that dealing with the change of address at the polls would be less hassle than tracking down the necessary forms myself.

 

[Cybit]

Glad to see the spotlight cast on the alt-right. This is the future if the Republican party whether the establishment likes it or not - I await the cries that the establishment didn't coalesce around Trump come his November loss if he can cobble together a majority before the convention.

Especially happy to see reference to Scott Alexander and his Anti-Reactionary FAQ. I recommend everyone checks it out, it's long but worth your time.

http://slatestarcodex.com/2013/10/20/the-anti-reactionary-faq/

Speaking of party shifts, I hope the left continues to prepare for the impact that technology will have on current paradigms and doesn't fuck up and fall apart before we can get a solid foundation in place for the coming automation and biotechnology revolutions. That, and of course a continued support towards the promotion of social progress.

Slatestar Codex for the win, IMO. That, Popehat, and lawyersgunsmoneyblog are the three things I keep up with for internet reading.

Glad someone else also thinks the hard-core Bernieites are thr Tea Party left. If only theh were smart enough to look at how badly the tea party fucked the GOP for the next decade or so.

I'm surprised that people didn't realize that the left was as capable of being hateful, authoritarian prone, self-righteous jackasses as the right. Humans gonna human!

Though I don't think only the Bernie supporters are in that boat - there are plenty of Hillary supporters that would qualify in the equivalent of the Tea Party Left (using social issues as their purity test rather than economic issues like Bernie's Tea Party Left wing is doing).

 

[Bowdz]

I was thinking about the implications of Bernie's coalition of far left people try and do a tea party maneuver.

but then I remember the Tea Party was amazingly funded by billionaires on the right and was actually really organized.

Yeah, I'm hopeful Bernie's hardcore supporters will fade away into irrelevance based off of OWS. The OWS movement was made up of the exact same people and had virtually no real impact on the legislative environment at the time.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Paul Ryan beats Clinton! Disarray.

Good thing he's not running wink wink nudge nudge

 

[shinra-bansho]

I'm pretty sure HRC has been subject to social issues purity tests as well.

I don't particularly think Sanders has been. Rather certain social issues are brought up as they exemplify hypocrisy. Like the PLCAA, the embodiment of a bill passed by industry.

Meanwhile, there are certain social issues on which there is only one right answer, in my view. There is no nuance to hating gays, transgenders and blacks for being gay, transgender and black. And not wanting them to have equal rights.

There is plenty of nuance around government regulation, trade policy and domestic adjustment, immigration reform, tax policy, healthcare policy.

For the most part I don't see people calling for Tulsi Gabbard to be primaried because of her historical bigoted views.

 

[User 463088]

So anyway...

My mom and I each did about 2 hours of calling for Queen today. I did like 10x more calls than she did, because she just loved to talk to these women. One of the people she talked to just became a US citizen and gets to vote for the first time. The woman's English wasn't great, but she kept saying over and over "I vote for Miss Hillary." It was adorable.

She also had a woman whose name looked familiar. My mom mentioned that she went to school with someone that had that name. So, my mom does her whole little thing, and asked her "I hate to ask, but did you ever live in Chillicothe?" Turns out, my mom went to school with this lady like 50 years ago.

Anyway, just thought it was interesting.

 

[BanGy.nz]

Pictures of articles are awful.

PLS FORGIVE ME!

Jennifer EpsteinVerified account
‏@jeneps
Responding to Sanders fundraising letter, Clinton mgr Robby Mook says Sanders "attacks have gotten out of hand"

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I was thinking about the implications of Bernie's coalition of far left people try and do a tea party maneuver.

but then I remember the Tea Party was amazingly funded by billionaires on the right and was actually really organized.

They won elections and commanded enough of the vote that the GOP had to pay attention to them.

I don't think the far fringe left will end up like that.

As much as I hate their policies and basically everything about them, the Tea Party got results and were organized.

 

[FyreWulff]

So I just woke up after a long day, what the hell are people going on about on Reddit about provisional ballots being shams? Do people not know how elections work?

 

[shinra-bansho]

I mean at least you linked to a tweet that links to an actual source of information.

Anyway, I'm kind of confused about Sanders attack.

Firstly, he's free to raise money through a joint committee. But isn't.
Secondly, his campaign has committed a bevy of violations. That have needed to be rectified. Hi, Belinda!

Also I'm not sure what the point of writing to the DNC is.

 

[dramatis]

How the Pentagon misled Congress to stop a law intended to help rape victims [Vox]

But Protect Our Defenders decided to file a Freedom of Information Act request on those 93 cases. Three years later, they finally got data back on 81 of them from the Army and the Marines; the Air Force never responded, and the Navy said they didn't have any such records.

The results were startling. Not one of the 81 cases had any evidence that the case went to trial because a commander "insisted" on it. None of them showed evidence that military prosecutors were less willing than commanders to go forward with a case. The conviction rates for sexual assault in these cases were also significantly lower than the military claimed, and the sentences were arbitrary and unpredictable — including one major who was sentenced to just 30 days in confinement for molesting a child.

Two-thirds of the cases either didn't even involve a sexual assault allegation in the first place, or showed that the local DA didn't "refuse" to prosecute at all — rather, the DA handed the case over to the military so that the case could be prosecuted.

The other third of the 81 cases may in fact have been "refused" by local prosecutors or other local authorities — but about a third of those cases never resulted in sexual assault charges at all. And again, there's still no evidence that a military commander pushed any of these cases forward after they were rejected by a civilian prosecutor.

 

[Slayven]

So I just woke up after a long day, what the hell are people going on about on Reddit about provisional ballots being shams? Do people not know how elections work?

I think that is true at this point.

 

[User 463088]

They won elections and commanded enough of the vote that the GOP had to pay attention to them.

I don't think the far fringe left will end up like that.

As much as I hate their policies and basically everything about them, the Tea Party got results and were organized.

They were also regular voters. They had more power because they were taking votes out of the Establishment GOP column. The far, far left that won't vote for Hillary are probably not reliable Dem voters. (I"m not throwing all Bernie people under the bus, just the really vocal ones who are absolutely opposed to Hillary) They lack funding, and they lack organization. A lot of them will go back to not voting or voting Green.

And I kinda hate that. As deplorable as some tactics, opinions and the like have been...if they only realized that the good is a decent way to work towards the perfect, I feel like we could have an actual discourse about progressive change.

 

[Macho Madness]

I'm sorry if I've contributed to a toxic environment here and one that doesn't breed actual discussion. In general I don't take things very seriously and this was just an extension of that.

Mostly I just have fun posting polls and interesting things I find elsewhere. I now understand it can be a bit much so I'll tone it down a notch and curate things more carefully.

 

[User 463088]

I'm sorry if I've contributed to a toxic environment here and one that doesn't breed actual discussion. In general I don't take things very seriously and this was just an extension of that.

Mostly I just have fun posting polls and interesting things I find elsewhere. I now understand it can be a bit much so I'll tone it down a notch and curate things more carefully.

You haven't. And you shouldn't apologize for anything.

 

[aspiegamer]

So I just woke up after a long day, what the hell are people going on about on Reddit about provisional ballots being shams? Do people not know how elections work?

TLDR? No. They don't. This is not a new trend for Sanders supporters. At least I'm assuming you're talking about Sanders supporters and would be shocked where they not.

I'm sorry if I've contributed to a toxic environment here and one that doesn't breed actual discussion. In general I don't take things very seriously and this was just an extension of that.

This seems pretty random. I doth think you worry too much.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Super relevant.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LOZuxwVk7TU

Spoiler

See how annoying it is?

 

[FyreWulff]

TLDR? No. They don't. This is not a new trend for Sanders supporters. At least I'm assuming you're talking about Sanders supporters and would be shocked where they not.This seems pretty random. I doth think you worry too much.

https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersFor.../new_yorkers_tomorrow_1_dont_wear_any_bernie/

Currently at 6000 upvotes.

 

[Dominican Power]

https://medium.com/@robinalperstein/on-becoming-anti-bernie-ee87943ae699#.26afzsifr

I concluded that Sanders was less interested in actually accomplishing anything than he was in staging protests where he could claim some kind of moral high ground, not interested in getting in the weeds and doing anything to actually achieve his goals within the Congress he worked in

This research put Sanders’ supposedly pristine progressive agenda in perspective: it is very easy to maintain that agenda if you never make the hard choices necessary to get things done. Classic protester — yet handily collecting his $200,000 pay check and his lifetime of benefits while doing little to enact actual progressive policies to improve people’s lives.

Feel the Bern

 

[studyguy]

Figure until we get out of the primary season we won't see any real positive news beyond people spinning polls as a net positive for their candidate of choice. Doesn't help that virtually every candidate is getting shit on in one form or another right now, I don't blame people for feeling a bit down on the political news at the moment but I mean the biggest discussion pieces, as innocuous as some are, will still inevitably piss someone off if it's not puffing up their primary candidate.


Also as far as the provisional ballots are concerned, that's what I was asking last page. That post on reddit, some on facebook and a ton on twitter sound more like conspiracy theories than actual advice. Saying they'll basically throw you out on your ass or tear up your ballot because you wore a Bernie shirt is absolute idiocy. I don't mind people being on the lookout for issues at the polls, that's great, but peddling that shit as actual advice is awful. Someone on here was volunteering at the NYC polls right? Fucking good luck breh.

 

[Beer Monkey]

Jesus, New York poll workers are in for some petulant children tomorrow.

 

[metalslimer]

Figure until we get out of the primary season we won't see any real positive news beyond people spinning polls as a net positive for their candidate of choice. Doesn't help that virtually every candidate is getting shit on in one form or another right now, I don't blame people for feeling a bit down on the political news at the moment but I mean the biggest discussion pieces, as innocuous as some are, will still inevitably piss someone off if it's not puffing up their primary candidate.

Yeah, I thought the slate article posted last night was really good and was something that both sets of supporters could get behind logically, but I was clearly wrong considering some of the response to it.

 

[aspiegamer]

That Medium piece makes me want to go on my own epic rant (privately, of course). It's extremely well-written and is pretty much 99% of my feelings. Not at any point mentioning Clinton is key. It's not about comparing her qualifications or positions. It's about him.

https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersFor.../new_yorkers_tomorrow_1_dont_wear_any_bernie/

Currently at 6000 upvotes.

Are provisional ballots in NY even a thing for primaries? Because you're either registered already or you're not. Meaning you can either vote or you can't. Do they not understand how that works? Mind you I don't disagree that voting should be made easier to participate in, but rules are rules, especially for business within the parties themselves.

Edit: Top of page? Eew. Sorry.

 

[Jimmy King]

That "Sexist" section in that Anti-Bernie article.... Lol it astounds me the youth are getting behind this guy.

 

[User 463088]

Here is Benchmark Politics final estimates of delegate allocation for tomorrow

They think Hillary will net 35 delegates. If everything breaks Bernie's way, they think she'd net 19. If everything goes Queen's way, she'd net 49 delegates.

 

[Cybit]

I'm pretty sure HRC has been subject to social issues purity tests as well.

I don't particularly think Sanders has been. Rather certain social issues are brought up as they exemplify hypocrisy. Like the PLCAA, the embodiment of a bill passed by industry.

Meanwhile, there are certain social issues on which there is only one right answer, in my view. There is no nuance to hating gays, transgenders and blacks for being gay, transgender and black. And not wanting them to have equal rights.

There is plenty of nuance around government regulation, trade policy and domestic adjustment, immigration reform, tax policy, healthcare policy.

A) I think the issue is that everyone's getting held to purity tests, and no one can possibly satisfy everyone's purity test. (This isn't a political thing either. Look at movies casting for roles in OT. A casting has to be everything to everyone).

B) I'd argue Sanders has been hit on the social purity test when it comes to race. In an odd way, the dialogue around Sanders is that because he can't get the AA / minority (non Asian American) vote, the implication gets dropped that he doesn't understand race / is ignorantly racist. No one will say it outright, of course. But I suspect there are hundreds of dog-whistling "Sanders supporters are young white men who are ignorant to reality and are sort of diet racist and diet sexist" posts in the various OT threads.

Funny enough. the one super hardcore Sanders supporter I know is a black woman. Just like the two Trump supporters I know are two lesbians married to each other, in an interracial marriage (black and white), living in Seattle. I think life likes to troll me sometimes.

Heck, even Clinton got it over a bill her husband passed when he was in office. Because, well, obviously her and her husband are one and the same or some bullshit like that, and because people don't understand the difference between correlation and causation (or the difference between federal laws and state laws). Have I mentioned how much I think that attack on Clinton is complete horseshit yet?

It really comes down to this idea of "Gotcha!" politics + self-selecting echo chambers. In a world where every niche has their own custom products and services, we are really bad at figuring out how to do compromise or working together as a whole society (or whole party).

 

[WayneMorse]

That "Sexist" section in that Anti-Bernie article.... Lol it astounds me the youth are getting behind this guy.

The very idea of supporting a capitalist state is sexist in it of itself, so yes, both Bernie and Hillary are sexist by default.

 

[Black Mamba]

Here is Benchmark Politics final estimates of delegate allocation for tomorrow

They think Hillary will net 35 delegates. If everything breaks Bernie's way, they think she'd net 19. If everything goes Queen's way, she'd net 49 delegates.

So NY is based on CDs and not state?

God I hate Primary rules.

 

[studyguy]

Are provisional ballots in NY even a thing for primaries? Because you're either registered already or you're not. Meaning you can either vote or you can't. Do they not understand how that works? Mind you I don't disagree that voting should be made easier to participate in, but rules are rules, especially for business within the parties themselves.

Edit: Top of page? Eew. Sorry.

As I mentioned before, I've had to fill a provisional because I changed address right before an election and it contradicted what they had on me.

Finding out if it was counted was fucking easy though. Like it's not BIG ESTABLISHMENT BOOGEYMAN out to fuck you, sometimes you really will have to take a provisional for a valid reason.

 

[Effect]

Bernie supporters hate Hillary even though Hillary voted with Bernie 93% of the time:



https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/722170529629782017

It's really interesting if not terrifying talking with some of the more hardcore Sanders supporters. They just don't allow that 93% number to register. They can't claim it's a lie because there is a proof but they (the ones I've had contact with) just outright ignore it and then claim that the two are nothing alike. It's crazy to watch. There is a complete disconnect with some of them that goes beyond hope, etc. Some of them have convinced themselves that Hillary Clinton is outright evil and a criminal. Yet when you ask them to justify that belief and provide proof that has made think this way they can't and act like it should be clear as day for you to see.

Thankfully not all of Sanders supporters are like this. I actually hope that the majority of them aren't. The hardcore ones are scary people.

 

[StopMakingSense]

So NY is based on CDs and not state?

God I hate Primary rules.

All Democratic races have the same proportional allocation. About half are CD based, with two additional, separate statewide categories.

 

[User 463088]

So NY is based on CDs and not state?

God I hate Primary rules.

There are some state wide delegates that are awarded proportionally, but most of the delegates are awarded by CD.

 

[theprodigy]

So NY is based on CDs and not state?

God I hate Primary rules.

Almost every state does it by CD.

(There's a few that do it by state senate districts instead (Texas) and some other oddballs (Delaware, Montana) but those are a minority, and they still keep the same theme anyway.)

 

[Sianos]

Bingo. I can't imagine what '08 would have been like if Twitter and social media were back then what they are now. The echo chambers that social media and the internet have created terrifies me on a societal level - our generation (older millenials) and older (up to like the older end of baby boomers) are definitely not capable of handling these tools with any kind of care or precision. This seems obvious to me. The complete destruction of empathy when you go online makes me think that there's some fundamental breakdown of how we communicate when it's done online versus when it has been done via other means.

I agree that social media and the Internet can be a double edged sword - it's allowed for people to communicate from around the world and to share and synthesize ideas, but at the same time there is the worrying trend of tailor-made content streams and the development of echo chambers that lead to the crystallization of unpleasant antiquated ideas and the softening of ideas with potential that haven't had the details hammered out through debate and analysis. I think that the continual leftward shift of social positions is in a large part driven by increased ability to communicate with others who are different from you to learn that people of a different color an ocean away are still human like you. I think ultimately future generations will learn to better use the technology and a sort of equilibrium between dealing with the truly hateful while still exposing oneself to contrary ideas will be organically maintained.

I think the phenomenon of people acting with little empathy online is due to them not having true empathy in the first place, only merely pretending to care for others due to fear of social consequences. It is true that the Internet is more impersonal, but all that does is strip people of their pretenses for being kind and reveal who they truly are. I think for future generations for whom the Internet is more viscerally real to, something that has "always been" from their perspective this will not be as much of a problem, though I also hope the underlying problem of a lack of an epistemological basis for empathy will be addressed as well.

I love Slatestarcodex and Popehat, so I'll have to look into your other recommendation as well!

 

[Slayven]

TLDR? No. They don't. This is not a new trend for Sanders supporters. At least I'm assuming you're talking about Sanders supporters and would be shocked where they not.This seems pretty random. I doth think you worry too much.

Happens with every cycle.

 

[StopMakingSense]

Almost every state does it by CD.

(There's a few that do it by state senate districts instead (Texas) and some other oddballs (Delaware, Montana) but those are a minority, and they still keep the same theme anyway.)

They are only weird because they only have one congressional district, so it's an additional state-wide category. (Aka why Hillary ties WY)

 

[shinra-bansho]

I'm confused as to what you're talking about wrt purity tests and race. I don't know if I've ever really seen that applied to Sanders.

I've seen criticism of his vote on the 1994 crime bill. But again from the perspective of it being hypocrisy. I've seen observation and critique of the campaign and candidate being unable to attract voters, or the actions of supporters. Posting of pretty paternalistic poster images like the one where the black woman and the Latino couple haven't thought hard enough. But these are typically basically wtf are you doing boggled mind posts.

But I don't really see how any of that constitutes Tea Party like purity tests.

He's poor at intersectional politics. That's not a purity test.

 

[ivysaur12]

No shit.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/a...republicans-see-sanders-as-an-easier-opponent

As Bernie Sanders makes his case that he is a stronger general election candidate than Hillary Clinton, he often cites polls showing him outperforming his Democratic rival in hypothetical general election match-ups with Republicans.

"Republicans are being nice to Bernie Sanders because we like the thought of running against a socialist. But if he were to win the nomination the knives would come out for Bernie pretty quick," said Ryan Williams, a former spokesman for 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney's campaign. "There's no mystery what the attack on him would be. Bernie Sanders is literally a card carrying socialist who honeymooned in the Soviet Union. There'd be hundreds of millions of dollars in Republican ads showing hammers and sickles and Soviet Union flags in front of Bernie Sanders."

 

[theprodigy]

They are only weird because they only have one congressional district, so it's an additional state-wide category. (Aka why Hillary ties WY)

No, that's not what I'm talking about, it's because those two states have different subdivisions (DE, MT) where it is subdivided in a different way.

note that due to all those 2 delegate categories in Delaware it's possible for a candidate to get like 68% of the vote and only win delegates 12-9, while with 75% of the vote it's possible to win them 18-3 lol

 

[Dominican Power]

No shit.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/a...republicans-see-sanders-as-an-easier-opponent

Too bad Hillary is going to win the nom.

 

[excelsiorlef]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...or-the-nomination-would-make-him-a-hypocrite/

Great article from WaPo not even gonna quote it because the whole thing is bang on.

Especially the section that says that if by some miracle Sanders won, all that DNC money that Clinton raised would be at his disposal and that to take it would make him a hypocritical and to not take it an idiot.

 

[Wilsongt]

Fox News: CLINTON CAMPAIGN IN FULL DAMAGE CONTROL TODAY!

then they also took that Cloony quote our of context.