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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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Bowdz

Member
Fox News: CLINTON CAMPAIGN IN FULL DAMAGE CONTROL TODAY!

then they also took that Cloony quote our of context.

Yeah, I just saw the segment. Ed Henry is such a sack of shit. He tried to paint it as though Bernie's campaign was in crisis mode as well because he is in the top 5% of earners nationally and paid a rate that is lower than what he wants for the nation. WTF?!? Ed Henry, I knew good journalist, I worked with good journalist, and you sir are no good journalist.
 
No, that's not what I'm talking about, it's because those two states have different subdivisions (DE, MT) where it is subdivided in a different way.

note that due to all those 2 delegate categories in Delaware it's possible for a candidate to get like 68% of the vote and only win delegates 12-9 lol

Huh the more you know. Thanks!
 

El Odio

Banned
Thread lurker here. I was planning on taking my bike into the shop before dinner but instead sat down for the past 40 minutes and went through this entire article and god damn is that good.
As a former Sanders support this hits on a lot of the issues I've started having with him ever since last month. I've been taking a more in depth look at politics lately and essentially I started seeing that being a "visionary" is nice and can come from right place/ideas but with the way our country is set up that's a far cry from reality and a way of compromise and slow progress isn't some terrible thing like a lot of Sanders more rabid base will try to tell you. That's not even getting into the more hypocritical and deceitful things going on with his campaign. Might share that article later if I remember.
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
I agree that social media and the Internet can be a double edged sword - it's allowed for people to communicate from around the world and to share and synthesize ideas, but at the same time there is the worrying trend of tailor-made content streams and the development of echo chambers that lead to the crystallization of unpleasant antiquated ideas and the softening of ideas with potential that haven't had the details hammered out through debate and analysis. I think that the continual leftward shift of social positions is in a large part driven by increased ability to communicate with others who are different from you to learn that people of a different color an ocean away are still human like you. I think ultimately future generations will learn to better use the technology and a sort of equilibrium between dealing with the truly hateful while still exposing oneself to contrary ideas will be organically maintained.

I think the phenomenon of people acting with little empathy online is due to them not having true empathy in the first place, only merely pretending to care for others due to fear of social consequences. It is true that the Internet is more impersonal, but all that does is strip people of their pretenses for being kind and reveal who they truly are. I think for future generations for whom the Internet is more viscerally real to, something that has "always been" from their perspective this will not be as much of a problem, though I also hope the underlying problem of a lack of an epistemological basis for empathy will be addressed as well.

I love Slatestarcodex and Popehat, so I'll have to look into your other recommendation as well!

Dang it, had a long reply and then deleted it accidentally <cry>

I've guest taught for the missus at Notre Dame, and I do think that the younger generation will handle it a lot better than we have. Since it's something they've had all of their lives growing up, I think they see it as more of an extension of the real world rather than those of us who grew up pre social media / internet, but then had it come into being during college / adulthood. I think our idea of a representative world is skewed, and that we often think our own online circles are representative, when they're instead heavily self-selected and biased.

Don't get me started on speech - I think you and I share similar thoughts on speech (and how to fight hateful speech) being Popehat readers. :D

See, maybe I'm just lucky, but even people I know who are self-righteous assholes or dipshits online actually have empathy when confronted in reality.

I'm confused as to what you're talking about wrt purity tests and race. I don't know if I've ever really seen that applied to Sanders.

I've seen criticism of his vote on the 1994 crime bill. But again from the perspective of it being hypocrisy. I've seen observation and critique of the campaign and candidate being unable to attract voters, or the actions of supporters. Posting of pretty paternalistic poster images like the one where the black woman and the Latino couple haven't thought hard enough. But these are typically basically wtf are you doing boggled mind posts.

But I don't really see how any of that constitutes Tea Party like purity tests.

He's poor at intersectional politics. That's not a purity test.

Maybe it's just the circles I run in - but I've seen arguments about how Sanders isn't a "true" progressive because he doesn't do well wrt intersectional politics currently (which, mind you, will probably be vastly different 10 years from now than it is now, but I digress), or that he's not a "real" democrat because he runs as an I (even though him and Clinton have a 93% similar voting record) in the Senate.

I think going after folks who voted for the crime bill as being "racist" or "anti-black" (Sanders, and by extension from her husband, Clinton) - is complete historical revisionist bullshit, and frankly, the "evidence" that the crime bill didn't do anything is Twain-ian "lies, damn lies, and statistics." That smacks of the leftist-y purity test. It seems to be either economic purity tests (blasting Clinton for taking money from Wall Street) or social purity tests (the crime bill, Coates going off on Sanders about not being willing to consider reparations). I don't particularly like it.
 
Bernie's writings at 32 don't matter at all, but it is funny to see Hillary hated by Bernie Stans for flip flopping on gay marriage when she was older when Bernie was openly speculating about "bitches" causing men to get prostate cancer, lol.

Republicans and Fox News are awesome speaking nice about Bernie whenever they can to bash Hillary hahaha

even Trump talks nice about him.

Back when Trump was running a campaign and he started getting lots of protesters to his rallies, he was pretty anti-Bernie.

The inclination to blame Jewish Socialists in times of strife is a natural instinct for him it seems!
 

dramatis

Member
Are provisional ballots in NY even a thing for primaries? Because you're either registered already or you're not. Meaning you can either vote or you can't. Do they not understand how that works? Mind you I don't disagree that voting should be made easier to participate in, but rules are rules, especially for business within the parties themselves.
Provisional ballots are a thing. There's a procedure that we have to go through with someone who isn't registered in the book but wants to vote. Officially, it's actually called an Affidavit Ballot. We have to give them

A Notice to Voters (saying you can vote Affidavit or get a Court Order) paper
A Voters' Rights paper
An Affidavit Ballot
A red colored privacy sleeve instead of a normal sleeve

If they want to get a Court Order we have to hand them a Court Order request thing

If things get realer than real, someone on the poll site will Phoenix Wright-point at the voter and issue a CHALLENGE OATH and then the voter will have to sign a Challenge Oath paper

I don't know what bozo came up with the Challenge Oath thing but it's real
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Republicans and Fox News are awesome speaking nice about Bernie whenever they can to bash Hillary hahaha

even Trump talks nice about him.

I think Trump talks nice about him to set him up to try to get some percentage of Bernie voters (authoritarian-y types, or types who think the system is hopelessly corrupt and needs to be completely destroyed) over to his side.
 
Bernie's writings at 32 don't matter at all, but it is funny to see Hillary hated by Bernie Stans for flip flopping on gay marriage when she was older when Bernie was openly speculating about "bitches" causing men to get prostate cancer, lol.
Yeah, it's not something I would hold against him, but if you're going to hold dumb shit that Hillary has said in her past against her then it's only fair to hold Bernie to that same standard.

I think that's really what it comes down to, people talking about Hillary like she's this evil, corrupt shill while treating Bernie like Jesus. It's ridiculous.
 

itschris

Member

That's how I've felt for a while. Clinton's been in the national spotlight for decades, being attacked and smeared by Republicans the whole time. Sanders hasn't had to face anything like that on a national level - he's been comfortable in small, homogeneous, liberal Vermont. If he somehow won the nomination, I'd expect his favourable ratings and poll numbers to go way down after the opposition that's been purposefully holding back in hopes of him winning lets loose. Maybe he could still win, especially against Trump, but it would make me a lot more nervous, doubly so if Cruz manages to win.

Full disclosure, I'm Canadian. I've just been interested in American politics for a long time, especially since the 2008 election.
 

jaekeem

Member
Really though, Trump has been so boring for a while. He just complains about getting outsmarted all the time by Cruz now.

Well he's also pivoting to GE mode.

And he had that 2-3 day period where he just had disaster after disaster, starting from his first abortion statements. He probably was told to stfu and just be the calmest, most predictable version of himself possible by the RNC.
 

User 406

Banned
I was thinking about the implications of Bernie's coalition of far left people try and do a tea party maneuver.

but then I remember the Tea Party was amazingly funded by billionaires on the right and was actually really organized.

There's just not as much fertile ground on the left for it. There's always extremists at both ends, but for the longest time the voters in the GOP have been increasingly unhappy with their party failing to deliver on their promises to stop the gays from having rights and to kick out the negro usurper in the White House. Meanwhile, Democrats in aggregate are pretty happy with their party.

So like other people have pointed out, this whole Green Tea Party thing is really overblown. If we were losing good legislators to crazed demagogues in primary contests, we'd have a problem. But that's really only happening on the right.


As for the thread metacommentary, I'll admit I enjoy and contribute to the chatroom atmosphere, but after all it is a community thread, so I don't think veering off topic for some banter is a problem. Even when we're in the throes of the latest digression, someone always posts a news item or article that's interesting, or provides useful insight and commentary. The only time I see a page without something like that is when we're in full on liveblogging mode during an event and shit is moving too fast.

We're just in a doldrums period right now, I think. People are suffering from Trump withdrawal.


But yeah, death to blind links, at least post a single god damn sentence describing it if nothing else.
 
I can only assume it's your circles...

That he's basically an I running as a D is more pettiness.

But again a failure to perform wrt intersectionality isn't a purity test. Any more than saying Clinton isn't attracting the young vote for xyz reasons.

And I don't see anyone holding reparations or Sanders crime bill vote as an example of him not being liberal enough style purity test. It's an example of hypocritical stances.

The crime bill was originally an attack on Clinton's purity as a progressive. It's still used by Sanders as an attack. :/
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
I can only assume it's your circles...

That he's basically an I running as a D is more pettiness.

But again a failure to perform wrt intersectionality isn't a purity test. Any more than saying Clinton isn't attracting the young vote for xyz reasons.

And I don't see anyone holding reparations or Sanders crime bill vote as an example of him not being liberal enough style purity test. It's an example of hypocritical stances.

Eh, as it's been pointed out, my circles ARE weird - see the Sanders-nista is a black woman, and the Trump supporters are an interracial married lesbian couple, and the Clinton supporters are Moderate Republicans who feel as if they were booted out of the party after 2008. I also think living in a super duper liberal area like Seattle makes me see the crazy lefty side way more than most folks. (I vaguely remember one of the city council members being upset that Clinton and Sanders weren't willing to nationalize Boeing and other major companies. Crazy pants people.)

I feel like the attacks Clinton and Sanders are getting about the crime bill is more tied to purity tests than hypocritical stances. Sanders and Clinton have both been pretty darn consistently progressive when it comes to civil rights.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
neat, so for once, I'm gonna be just as right as him in all likelihood

(on a side note, designing databases blows ass)

I love database design.
Someone hire me!

But really, what don't you like about it?
 
I feel like the attacks Clinton and Sanders are getting about the crime bill is more tied to purity tests than hypocritical stances. Sanders and Clinton have both been pretty darn consistently progressive when it comes to civil rights.
The attacks on Clinton are wrt the crime bill. Including the attacks from Sanders himself. If anything Sanders is simply being held to his own test.

The only one I've really noticed is "Sanders isn't liberal enough on guns."
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
The attacks on Clinton are. Including the attacks from Sanders himself. If anything Sanders is simply being held to his own test.

The only one I've really noticed is "Sanders isn't liberal enough on guns."

That's because Sanders is running for President of Vermont.
 
TYLER!!!
Do we talk about Tyler ? Not our Tyler, the other Tyler. You know 'that' Tyler that we don't talk about. Well let's talk about him:

Tyler's NY prediction:

HRC 59
Bernie 40

Someone on his website used the phrase "ethnic voting tendencies" and that's just fucking gross. Fuck.

I also don't see Tyler's projections being at the top of S4P on Reddit.

I wonder why.....
 
I love database design.
Someone hire me!

But really, what don't you like about it?

oh, i actually like designing databases in general, like when i've been able to do it in actual professional environments it's been reasonably fun

i'm just taking a class on it in one of my grad programs, and the database i'm working with (Ohio's Client Assistance Program - basically, the people who get in touch with disabled people having problems w/ the relevant state rehabilitation agencies) is kinda sparse in system-analysis detail & in terms of actual data available so it's been kinda hard to come up with new and exciting ways to improve it
 
Stutzman is sounding very weak on foreign policy. Can't imagine that goes over well with GOP primary voters.

I'm turning this off. They're both terrible debaters.
 
I think the fact that the mainstream media went so easy on ridiculous Bernie climate plans suggests that they aren't really as biased as they are unable to determine fact from fiction and that the GOP just noticed that the media is okay with lying about policy before the Dems did.
 
oh, i actually like designing databases in general, like when i've been able to do it in actual professional environments it's been reasonably fun

i'm just taking a class on it in one of my grad programs, and the database i'm working with (Ohio's Client Assistance Program - basically, the people who get in touch with disabled people having problems w/ the relevant state rehabilitation agencies) is kinda sparse in system-analysis detail & in terms of actual data available so it's been kinda hard to come up with new and exciting ways to improve it
Well is it in star or snowflake schema? Theres lots of ways to improve.
 
Bernie's Reddit people deserve a better campaign and candidate than Bernie 2016. (Not Bernie the person, I mean "Bernie" as created by Devine/Weaver and their campaign strategy.) I disagree with their chosen candidate, but the support they've managed to garner is damn impressive. I just hope that if Bernie loses, they won't feel that they didn't make a difference and that being active doesn't pay.
 

SheSaidNo

Member
What makes something a liberal issue, is it just that more people on the left support that issue? Mostly thinking about guns, there's been pretty leftist groups that seem to support them, national and internationally.
 
Bernie's Reddit people deserve a better campaign and candidate than Bernie 2016. (Not Bernie the person, I mean "Bernie" as created by Devine/Weaver and their campaign strategy.) I disagree with their chosen candidate, but the support they've managed to garner is damn impressive. I just hope that if Bernie loses, they won't feel that they didn't make a difference and that being active doesn't pay.

Agreed, Bernie the candidate is pretty much the worst candidate (probably jeb bush or carson tier) and bernie the politician isn't that much better. His views are decent, and he does a better job than most at trying to avoid playing the game and comes off as more genuine and does a bold move in saying the system itself needs to be changed. If only he were younger, more charismatic, had a better campaign staff, and went more into his policy proposals. I say this as a bernie supporter. I think the internet's role in politics will only get bigger and bigger as millenials become the largest voting bloc.
 
I agree that social media and the Internet can be a double edged sword - it's allowed for people to communicate from around the world and to share and synthesize ideas, but at the same time there is the worrying trend of tailor-made content streams and the development of echo chambers that lead to the crystallization of unpleasant antiquated ideas and the softening of ideas with potential that haven't had the details hammered out through debate and analysis. I think that the continual leftward shift of social positions is in a large part driven by increased ability to communicate with others who are different from you to learn that people of a different color an ocean away are still human like you. I think ultimately future generations will learn to better use the technology and a sort of equilibrium between dealing with the truly hateful while still exposing oneself to contrary ideas will be organically maintained.

I think the phenomenon of people acting with little empathy online is due to them not having true empathy in the first place, only merely pretending to care for others due to fear of social consequences. It is true that the Internet is more impersonal, but all that does is strip people of their pretenses for being kind and reveal who they truly are. I think for future generations for whom the Internet is more viscerally real to, something that has "always been" from their perspective this will not be as much of a problem, though I also hope the underlying problem of a lack of an epistemological basis for empathy will be addressed as well.

I love Slatestarcodex and Popehat, so I'll have to look into your other recommendation as well!
My issue is curated feeds. How do ideas penetrate that?

That and more and more of what we see is chosen by namless Facebook engineers (they already flirted with censoring Donald Trump posts).

I'm optimistic I just don't know how it happens lol
 

Goodstyle

Member
Bernie's Reddit people deserve a better campaign and candidate than Bernie 2016. (Not Bernie the person, I mean "Bernie" as created by Devine/Weaver and their campaign strategy.) I disagree with their chosen candidate, but the support they've managed to garner is damn impressive. I just hope that if Bernie loses, they won't feel that they didn't make a difference and that being active doesn't pay.

Weaver is Cruz-levels of slimy.
 
Well is it in star or snowflake schema? Theres lots of ways to improve.

Definitely in star right now from the looks of it (all but one table is tied to a single "case" table, which might be unavoidable for some of this data).

also tbh for most aspects of this project it's more "oh god this is tedious" than "oh god I have no idea how to get this done"
 
My issue is curated feeds. How do ideas penetrate that?

That and more and more of what we see is chosen by namless Facebook engineers (they already flirted with censoring Donald Trump posts).

I'm optimistic I just don't know how it happens lol

The real issue is that people like curated feeds and echo chambers. It is fun and rewards the brain to have your ideas reinforced by others. It would require a lot more education about our natural tendencies and a lot more public awareness that we do like to devolve into echo chambers (how many trump supporters or even sanders supporters do you see routinely post in this thread compared to clinton supporters?)
 
The real issue is that people like curated feeds and echo chambers. It is fun and rewards the brain to have your ideas reinforced by others. It would require a lot more education about our natural tendencies and a lot more public awareness that we do like to devolve into echo chambers (how many trump supporters or even sanders supporters do you see routinely post in this thread compared to clinton supporters?)
I mean this has always been the case it just seems amplified with the internet
 
Definitely in star right now from the looks of it (all but one table is tied to a single "case" table, which might be unavoidable for some of this data).

also tbh for most aspects of this project it's more "oh god this is tedious" than "oh god I have no idea how to get this done"
I think lot of people start with star and forget half way through and make it an interrelated shit hell. Then they start adding garbage inside facts. I've never come across a database that couldn't be significantly improved. But I usually dont bother and just like to give hell to DBAs.
 

Teggy

Member
Someone on his website used the phrase "ethnic voting tendencies" and that's just fucking gross. Fuck.

I also don't see Tyler's projections being at the top of S4P on Reddit.

I wonder why.....

It's OK, Facebook likes and Google trends are looking great for Pennsylvania!
 
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