Support NeoGAF

[ivysaur12]

Agreed. You also never know when circumstances (e.g. a scandal) will suddenly make a seat competitive.

The Chris Coons Rule

Spoiler

The Heidi Heitkamp Rule

 

[LyleLanley]

Kasich ate pizza with a fork and knife. He should do the right thing and drop out now.

 

[Black Mamba]

Flip Flopping Trump returns!

No surprise, Trump just spews shit he hasn't even thought about and later has to correct himself when told his position will destroy him in the general.

 

[PBY]

Flip Flopping Trump returns!

No surprise, Trump just spews shit he hasn't even thought about and later has to correct himself when told his position will destroy him in the general.

LMAO

 

[Captain Pants]

I sure do love Butch Otter and his reasoning for not expanding Medicaid...

People With Insurance Still Die

Otter said he was disappointed they did not go forward on closing that gap. But he said he did not totally agree with the claim some have made that Idahoans are dying because they fall in the gap.
“I see plenty of people that die every day in hospitals and they have insurance,” Otter said. “And they’re in the hospital. But they still die.”

Otter said multiple times that people without insurance have healthcare options such as the Terry Reilly clinics. He said he is not considering calling a special legislative session to address the health coverage gap.

 

[brainchild]

She hadn't been previously elected to the Senate by those states.

She also wasn't running against Sanders during those elections. Her being elected to the Senate by NY doesn't mean much to me when her favorability ratings are worse than a sack of shit.

I admit I'm skeptical Sanders can go into New York and pull off a repeat of Illinois. It looks to me like the dramatic change in his numbers came from two things. The first is that Clinton's massive lead was probably something of an illusion to begin with. Illinois was sparsely polled until the week of the primary, at which time as you pointed out the polls had been adjusted to give more weight to independents. The second is that his attempts to tie her to Rahm Emanuel seemed to be effective enough to prevent her from running up the score too much in Cook County. I'm not sure what he could do that would be as effective in New York.

Then again from a strategic standpoint it's kind of moot. Sanders absolutely cannot afford a massive loss (or any loss really) in New York so he has to make a play for it.

He's going to play up the fracking angle in New York (where it is banned). Not sure how effective it will be, but that's his angle.

Anyway, we don't know that polling won't looking differently in NY a week from its primary either.

The problem is, and why the Sanders campaign has a goal of 40% of the vote, is that you can NOT switch your affiliation to Democrat for this primary since last October. That means the independent vote in NY is completely cut out, and Bernie has not really won with "registered Democrats" in any primary.

Only newly registered voters can still join in but that deadline is looming too.

Combine that with Sanders message may not resonate as well as other states(anti-Wall Street) and Clinton is a popular ex-Senator from the State, and you are looking at a death knell here without something drastic changing the entire campaign for Hillary.

The Sanders campaign has been working for a solid month on registering new voters in NY. This is not news to them.

NY isn't the first state where many of you were convinced with 100% certainty that Bernie would not be able to take from Hillary, so I'm not surprised at the skepticism, but I know better by now.

 

[RustyNails]

Flip Flopping Trump returns!

No surprise, Trump just spews shit he hasn't even thought about and later has to correct himself when told his position will destroy him in the general.

And his supporters eat up the red meat. Punish the woman getting abortion. Tie her up! Brand the witch! YEAH!!

 

[ampere]

I still think it's important to give everyone in every district a choice.

Yeah, ideally this would be the case. I looked up the requirements and I guess you have to live there, but only at the time of the election, not for some specified amount of time. Wonder if the Dems just can't find anyone who wants to live in SD lol

Flip Flopping Trump returns!

No surprise, Trump just spews shit he hasn't even thought about and later has to correct himself when told his position will destroy him in the general.

Hah! What a tool.

 

[Officerrob]

Flip Flopping Trump returns!

No surprise, Trump just spews shit he hasn't even thought about and later has to correct himself when told his position will destroy him in the general.

He's just flexible (from his opinions a couple of hours old)

 

[Armaros]

She also wasn't running against Sanders during those elections. Her being elected to the Senate by NY doesn't mean much to me when her favorability ratings are worse than a sack of shit.



He's going to play up the fracking angle in New York (where it is banned). Not sure how effective it will be, but that's his angle.

Anyway, we don't know that polling won't looking differently in NY a week from its primary either.



The Sanders campaign has been working for a solid month on registering new voters in NY. This is not news to them.

NY isn't the first state where many of you were convinced with 100% certainty that Bernie would not be able to take from Hillary, so I'm not surprised at the skepticism, but I know better by now.

We have recent Gallup polling showing that 90+% of the Democrats are fine with Hillary.

And only Dems can vote in NY.

What are you looking at and why are you looking at overall Favorabiltiies as evidence for the NY primary?

 

[Retromelon]

literally cried laughing listening to this. Dirty Nixon (warning - risque humor)

 

[teruterubozu]

He's just flexible (from his opinions a couple of hours old)

He's evolving faster than Hillary.

 

[Snowman Prophet of Doom]

Trump is going all-in on the pro-life shit, but given his history on the issue, I guarantee it'd be one of the first things he'd put on the chopping block if it meant a deal with Congress he could brag about.

 

[brainchild]

We have recent Gallup polling showing that 90+% of the Democrats are fine with Hillary.

And only Dems can vote in NY.

What are you looking at and why are you looking at overall Favorabiltiies as evidence for the NY primary?

Acceptance != Favorability

You can be fine with having a certain president while also not liking them very much. And negative favorability is not evidence that she will lose, it is evidence that she doesn't have a favorability advantage just because NY elected her to the Senate.

 

[Armaros]

Acceptance != Favorability

You can be fine with having a certain president while also not liking them very much. And negative favorability is not evidence that she lose, it is evidence that she doesn't have a favorability advantage just because NY elected her to the Senate.

Again, where is you evidence that is this so?

You are spouting a crap ton of stuff without any backing, and calling out all polling and other measurable metrics as not valid.

 

[User 463088]

Hillary Clinton ‏@HillaryClinton
Just when you thought it couldn't get worse. Horrific and telling. -H

Yaaasss Queen.

 

[brainchild]

Again, where is you evidence that is this so?

Her terrible favorability ratings?!

 

[Armaros]

Her terrible favorability ratings?!

Countered by her favorability among democrats?

But one doesn't count and the other does. Right.

Especially when general favorablity doesn't even matter in a Democratic only Primary without indpeendants.

So its just you and you favorability poll, vs everything she has in her camp BUT that doesn't matter because.

 

[brainchild]

Countered by her favorability among democrats?

But one doesn't count and the other does. Right.

If you can show me proof of 90% favorability among Democrats, I'll eat a hat.

 

[excelsiorlef]

If you can show me proof of 90% favorability among Democrats, I'll eat a hat.

She's winning the popular vote and the current primary?

 

[brainchild]

She's winning the popular vote and the current primary?

That's not proof of anything other that her being the preferred candidate. Favorability is something altogether different.

 

[excelsiorlef]

That's not proof of anything other that her being the preferred candidate. Favorability is something altogether different.

Not the 90% but

http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polli...urce=Clinton&g_medium=search&g_campaign=tiles

Oh and Clinton leads in Enthusiastic/Very Enthusiastic 54 to 44

http://www.gallup.com/poll/190343/t...urce=Clinton&g_medium=search&g_campaign=tiles

 

[pigeon]

If you can show me proof of 90% favorability among Democrats, I'll eat a hat.

90% is high, but Clinton's net favorability is +57 among Democrats.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/188396/sanders-image-among-dems-clinton-maintains-edge.aspx

That implies a split something like 78/21 or so, depending on how many people you think reported as not sure. Since Hillary's name recognition is basically maxed out, I think that number's probably pretty low.

So I would be comfortable saying Clinton's (non-net) favorability among Democrats is not likely to be lower than 75%.

edit: excelsior has more current data, but it's basically the same, with both candidates dropping slightly.

 

[brainchild]

There's no point in trying to argue against someone that has already has his/her mind set on something.

All we can do now is wait for NY and see how it turns out.

That can be said for everyone contributing to this discussion.

However, I'm willing to cede my argument in the face of actual proof that Hillary is loved by nearly all Democrats in NY, and they're not just voting for her because they think she's the better candidate.

 

[shinra-bansho]

There are like a bajilloon polls showing her high favourables among Democrats. It's why she consistently wins Democrats.

 

[Cybit]

Worth noting

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-donald-trump-hacked-the-media/

Another frequent topic was the Democratic race. Even though Clinton’s polling was quite a bit better than Trump’s — she had a much larger share of the Democratic vote than Trump had of the Republican vote, a larger lead over her nearest rivals than Trump had over his, and better (although nonetheless fairly poor) general election numbers — the media usually portrayed Clinton’s polling in a negative light. There was also continuing coverage of the scandal surrounding her private email server and frequent speculation about Joe Biden entering the Democratic race. By mid-October, after a strong debate for Clinton and after Biden confirmed he wouldn’t run, the Democratic race receded from the headlines. But there’s been an interesting symbiosis between coverage of Clinton and coverage of Trump. Clinton, who has tried to run a low-key, “prevent defense” type of campaign, has probably benefited from Trump eating up so many news cycles, while Bernie Sanders has probably been hurt by it.

To be blunt, if it were Romney or Paul Ryan or anyone not batshit insane running against Clinton - I'd have put money on them beating Clinton. I think the craziness surrounding the primary process has permanently hurt the GOP for this election though, even if they somehow get a sane nominee, I think 2016 is lost. But do not forget that Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz have fairly close favorability numbers in the general election (Cruz is -15, Clinton is -12). Kasich, for instance, is +18, Sanders is +10.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/1618/favorability-people-news.aspx

 

[Black Mamba]

edit, I wish I could find NY Dem favorables, but unfortunately, googling New York and Polls results in New York Times Polls of all kind so it's really hard.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

retroactive momentum indeed

 

[brainchild]

Not the 90% but

90% is high, but Clinton's net favorability is +57 among Democrats.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/188396/sanders-image-among-dems-clinton-maintains-edge.aspx

That implies a split something like 78/21 or so, depending on how many people you think reported as not sure. Since Hillary's name recognition is basically maxed out, I think that number's probably pretty low.

So I would be comfortable saying Clinton's (non-net) favorability among Democrats is not likely to be lower than 75%.

Thanks for these.

While not the most recent, I'll accept this as evidence that would suggest that she has slight favorability advantage among Democrats.

However, I don't believe that it will play out as an advantage in the actual primary because not every Democrat voting is an actual Democrat. Some could be republicans or independents voting for Sanders, and others could be actual Democrats that actually like Sanders more.

 

[Black Mamba]

Thanks for these.

While not the most recent, I'll accept this as evidence that would suggest that she has slight favorability advantage among Democrats.

However, I don't believe that it will play out as an advantage in the actual primary because not every Democrat voting is an actual Democrat. Some could be republicans or independents voting for Sanders, and others could be actual Democrats that actually like Sanders more.

But it already has!?!?

 

[RustyNails]

There's no point in trying to argue against someone that has already has his/her mind set on something.

All we can do now is wait for NY and see how it turns out.

NY is not going to decide for them unfortunately. It will drag till June until Cali votes.

 

[ivysaur12]

Thanks for these.

While not the most recent, I'll accept this as evidence that would suggest that she has slight favorability advantage among Democrats.

However, I don't believe that it will play out as an advantage in the actual primary because not every Democrat voting is an actual Democrat. Some could be republicans or independents voting for Sanders, and others could be actual Democrats that actually like Sanders more.

We already know it has because she's winning.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Republicans deciding the Democratic nominee is clearly ideal.

She's going to be the nominee. Accept it. Move on.

 

[metalslimer]

Thanks for these.

While not the most recent, I'll accept this as evidence that would suggest that she has slight favorability advantage among Democrats.

However, I don't believe that it will play out as an advantage in the actual primary because not every Democrat voting is an actual Democrat. Some could be republicans or independents voting for Sanders, and others could be actual Democrats that actually like Sanders more.

Honestly how many republicans do you think crossed over in this election considering there own election is far more competitive. New York is a closed primary by the way

 

[Cybit]

Those Dem favorability numbers are more or less meaningless once we hit the GE though. As long as someone isn't Trump level bad, people are gonna go out and vote for their party's candidate.

 

[excelsiorlef]

Thanks for these.

While not the most recent, I'll accept this as evidence that would suggest that she has slight favorability advantage among Democrats.

However, I don't believe that it will play out as an advantage in the actual primary because not every Democrat voting is an actual Democrat. Some could be republicans or independents voting for Sanders, and others could be actual Democrats that actually like Sanders more.

Not in NY. It ain't an open primary and registration ended in October to change.

 

[gcubed]

Those Dem favorability numbers are more or less meaningless once we hit the GE though. As long as someone isn't Trump level bad, people are gonna go out and vote for their party's candidate.

I think he's insanely arguing that we should ignore polling and go with his gut that Bernie had a chance in NY

 

[Black Mamba]

Those Dem favorability numbers are more or less meaningless once we hit the GE though. As long as someone isn't Trump level bad, people are gonna go out and vote for their party's candidate.

I believe her unfavorability ratings are overstated. Once the Not Clinton voters come home, it will move back up again.

And some independents will too. In some ways, Trump's may move up as well because some Republicans will come home. It's just they can go down at any moment when he says something stupid...and he will.

 

[B-Dubs]

Not in NY. It ain't an open primary and registration ended in October to change.

Seriously, NYS goes to great lengths to make sure only members of a party can vote in that party's primary. There's not going to be any spoiler votes or crossover or independents. It's just straight up Dems.

 

[pigeon]

I mean, I'd definitely like to see more polling in NY. The last poll was two weeks ago and, honestly, while I expect Hillary to win, I'm not sure she's actually going to win by 50 points as the poll said. It would be kind of a sledgehammer if she did.

 

[Y2Kev]

Rick lazio is more formidable than Bernie IMO

 

[shinra-bansho]

Well he wins older anti-Obama (probably racist) Dems that are too lazy to change their registration. I don't know how many there are a in NY compared to OK though.

 

[Cybit]

I think he's insanely arguing that we should ignore polling and go with his gut that Bernie had a chance in NY

Oh, lol. Probably not much of a chance in NY. Weird shit happens occasionally, but pretty doubtful looking at the numbers. I think I've been fairly consistent that even as a Sanders supporter...he basically hasn't had much of a chance since the first 5-6 primaries. Clinton had way too much backing initially, and Trump's influence basically nuked any chance of a Sanders comeback narrative taking strong hold.

 

[Black Mamba]

I mean, I'd definitely like to see more polling in NY. The last poll was two weeks ago and, honestly, while I expect Hillary to win, I'm not sure she's actually going to win by 50 points as the poll said. It would be kind of a sledgehammer if she did.

I agree. More like 65-35 to 70-30 probably.

Not sure what the argument for Sanders in NY is? It's an establishment state. It's minority heavy. It's a closed primary.

He's lost every single one that has really just 1 of those characteristics. He's mostly been blown out in those states.

Think people getting too caught up in the idea of Bernie bringing in liberals and progressives when in reality he's brought in a lot of whites and not-clintons as well, many of them more conservative. So I think people go "NY is liberal, it's Bernie country!" Uh, no it's not.

 

[B-Dubs]

Well he wins older anti-Obama (probably racist) Dems that are too lazy to change their registration. I don't know how many there are a in NY compared to OK though.

Probably upstate, but it's the city that will decide the winner. Just like it always does.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I mean, I'd definitely like to see more polling in NY. The last poll was two weeks ago and, honestly, while I expect Hillary to win, I'm not sure she's actually going to win by 50 points as the poll said. It would be kind of a sledgehammer if she did.

It was landline only which probably affects the margin. But she's still likely to win.

 

[brainchild]

But it already has!?!?

We already know it has because she's winning.

By that logic, Hillary should have won Oklahoma and Nebraska, both closed primaries, but she didn't.

Whatever advantage she had did not help her in those states, and it's not guaranteed to help her win NY when Bernie has several weeks to use all of his resources to campaign there. It's also his home state.

 

[Kangi]

It's also his home state.

That has about the same pull as Hillary being born in Illinois.

 

[Black Mamba]

By that logic, Hillary should have won Oklahoma and Nebraska, both closed primaries, but she didn't.

Whatever advantage she had did not help her in those states, and it's not guaranteed to help her win NY when Bernie has several weeks to use all of his resources to campaign there. It's also his home state.

Yeah, she can't win states that are very white. Because these voters dislike Obama.

Comparing those states to New York is absurd.

 

[excelsiorlef]

By that logic, Hillary should have won Oklahoma and Nebraska, both closed primaries, but she didn't.

Whatever advantage she had did not help her in those states, and it's not guaranteed to help her win NY when Bernie has several weeks to use all of his resources to campaign there. It's also his home state.

Vermont is his home state. He has no connection to NY except his accent amd that he was born there.

Also Oklahoma and Nebraska are white as fuck.