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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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A

Armaros

Member
brainchild said:
By that logic, Hillary should have won Oklahoma and Nebraska, both closed primaries, but she didn't.

Whatever advantage she had did not help her in those states, and it's not guaranteed to help her win NY when Bernie has several weeks to use all of his resources to campaign there. It's also his home state.
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You are focusing on two primaries vs the other 15 she has won.

Why do those two mean something but the others dont?

What kind of the logic is that? What similarities to Oklahoma and Nebraska have to NY, compared to every other primary make those two more important?

Home state in political realities means you have been apart of the government representing that state. Has Bernie interacted with NY in his 25 years of politics?
 
B

Basileus777

Member
pigeon said:
I mean, I'd definitely like to see more polling in NY. The last poll was two weeks ago and, honestly, while I expect Hillary to win, I'm not sure she's actually going to win by 50 points as the poll said. It would be kind of a sledgehammer if she did.
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Well the poll where she was leading by 50 points was junk. It's the same one that had Kasich at 1%. Hillary will win decisively but not by that margin.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Black Mamba said:
I believe her unfavorability ratings are overstated. Once the Not Clinton voters come home, it will move back up again.

And some independents will too. In some ways, Trump's may move up as well because some Republicans will come home. It's just they can go down at any moment when he says something stupid...and he will.
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Hiiighly doubtful. Once she started running for president, it, in a week, went from neutral to -10, and has basically stayed there the entire process. I think it's fairly safe to assume that at least through the GE - her favorables will be in the -5 to -10 range across the general public. If anything; if the GOP ends up with Kasich or Romney or some other normal candidate, I could see it even potentially going down. I suspect Trump's insanity has made her look a little better.
 
A

ampere

Member
Cybit said:
Worth noting

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-donald-trump-hacked-the-media/



To be blunt, if it were Romney or Paul Ryan or anyone not batshit insane running against Clinton - I'd have put money on them beating Clinton. I think the craziness surrounding the primary process has permanently hurt the GOP for this election though, even if they somehow get a sane nominee, I think 2016 is lost. But do not forget that Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz have fairly close favorability numbers in the general election (Cruz is -15, Clinton is -12). Kasich, for instance, is +18, Sanders is +10.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/1618/favorability-people-news.aspx
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The Democrats have a solid electoral advantage for the GE, I think she'd beat anyone from the GoP. The discrimination platform of the party is too polarizing for moderate voters, even if you get rid of Trump and Cruz

brainchild said:
However, I don't believe that it will play out as an advantage in the actual primary because not every Democrat voting is an actual Democrat. Some could be republicans or independents voting for Sanders, and others could be actual Democrats that actually like Sanders more.
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Have you looked at the popular vote for the primaries so far?

Clinton 8,924,920
Sanders 6,398,420

How does this not indicate higher favorability to you?
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
brainchild said:
By that logic, Hillary should have won Oklahoma and Nebraska, both closed primaries, but she didn't.

Whatever advantage she had did not help her in those states, and it's not guaranteed to help her win NY when Bernie has several weeks to use all of his resources to campaign there. It's also his home state.
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It's not his home state. Him being born here means all of jack-fucking-shit. He's spent his entire life in Vermont, this is not his home state. It just isn't.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
DC aint gonna matter one iota in the primary. Even people in DC know that. I mean he'll be on the ballot anyway because they're going to fix it but come on.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Black Mamba said:
rc5fkkrto0-zc7urgdk0hq.png


edit, I wish I could find NY Dem favorables, but unfortunately, googling New York and Polls results in New York Times Polls of all kind so it's really hard.
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For future reference you can exclude it by using -"New York Times"
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Cybit said:
Hiiighly doubtful. Once she started running for president, it, in a week, went from neutral to -10, and has basically stayed there the entire process. I think it's fairly safe to assume that at least through the GE - her favorables will be in the -5 to -10 range across the general public. If anything; if the GOP ends up with Kasich or Romney or some other normal candidate, I could see it even potentially going down. I suspect Trump's insanity has made her look a little better.
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I don't think they will shoot up or anything. But again, I disagree. There will be some coming home.

You kind of see it with Obama right now. basically, people who were not anti-obama but a little disappointed in him are looking at Trump and going, "you know what...Obama's not so bad."

Some of her negatives are by the Not Clinton or Bernie's birdies. They'll come home. FWIW, Clinton being -5 would be part of the range I could see her in.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
ciaossu said:
Have you looked at the popular vote for the primaries so far?

Clinton 8,924,920
Sanders 6,398,420

How does this not indicate higher favorability to you?
Click to expand...

Clearly, Bernie wasn't trying in the areas where Hillary got those votes.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
B

Black Mamba

Member
Obama almost lost the WV primary in 2012 to a convict serving time in a Texas Jail.

Bernie will win that state and it won't mean shit because it's basically racists voting against hillary aka Obama III.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Black Mamba said:
I don't think they will shoot up or anything. But again, I disagree. There will be some coming home.

You kind of see it with Obama right now. basically, people who were not anti-obama but a little disappointed in him are looking at Trump and going, "you know what...Obama's not so bad."

Some of her negatives are by the Not Clinton or Bernie's birdies. They'll come home. FWIW, Clinton being -5 would be part of the range I could see her in.
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I think generally speaking, running for president almost always lowers ones favorables just due to the nature of having all the attacks and ads throughout the process. A lot of her favorables may also be folks watching the shitshow currently that is the GOP primary in that same range. IIRC, I think everyone who gets the GE has a drop in favorability as they get closer to November.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Black Mamba said:
I know but then I can't search new york times polls who may actually have the poll I'm looking for since they do so many polls! Or the article on it is on their website...
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Well, you have me there, lol. Not sure what search voodoo can accomplish that.
 
M

Meowster

Member
ciaossu said:
Have you looked at the popular vote for the primaries so far?

Clinton 8,924,920
Sanders 6,398,420

How does this not indicate higher favorability to you?
Click to expand...
Wait, she's leading by that much? Why is everyone on my timeline arguing about "the will of the people" then?
 
H

Holmes

Member
Stooooop. New York isn't Sander's home state, it's Vermont. Just like Illinois or Arkansas aren't Clinton's home state, and Pennsylvania isn't Kasich's home state.
 
K

Kangi

Member
Meowster said:
Wait, she's leading by that much? Why is everyone on my timeline arguing about "the will of the people" then?
Click to expand...

The will of the Facebook users.

Holmes said:
Stooooop. New York isn't Sander's home state, it's Vermont. Just like Illinois or Arkansas aren't Clinton's home state, and Pennsylvania isn't Kasich's home state.
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I believe Nate Cohn stated that there did seem to be a noticeable "home state" bump for Hillary in Arkansas, controlling for other factors.
 
B

brainchild

Banned
Clearly I've hit a nerve, lol. I love how everyone's arguing that NY is not his home state when it LITERALLY BY DEFINITION IS, and simultaneously argue that Hillary has 5 home states for whatever arbitrary reasons you decide.

Anyway, I'm not about to multiquote the entire thread, but I'll just say that I don't necessarily believe that he'll win New York. However, there are many factors to consider aside from Hillary being elected to Senate by NY, and I think they're being glossed over.

But I'll leave you guys to your echo chamber now before you all have a conniption :)
 
A

ampere

Member
Meowster said:
Wait, she's leading by that much? Why is everyone on my timeline arguing about "the will of the people" then?
Click to expand...

Those are probably the same people ignoring numbers, like the electoral math that shows Bernie needs to win 58% of the remaining popular vote (arranged across states in such a way that he gets 988 delegates)
 
G

gcubed

Member
brainchild said:
Clearly I've hit a nerve, lol. I love how everyone's arguing that NY is not his home state when it LITERALLY BY DEFINITION IS, and simultaneously argue that Hillary has 5 home states for whatever arbitrary reasons you decide.

Anyway, I'm not about to multiquote the entire thread, but I'll just say that I don't necessarily believe that he'll win New York. However, there are many factors to consider aside from Hillary being elected to Senate by NY, and I think they're being glossed over.

But I'll leave you guys to your echo chamber now before you all have a conniption :)
Click to expand...

If anything can hit a nerve in poligaf it's arguing from a faulty base with no basis in facts
 
E

excelsiorlef

Member
brainchild said:
Clearly I've hit a nerve, lol. I love how everyone's arguing that NY is not his home state when it LITERALLY BY DEFINITION IS, and simultaneously argue that Hillary has 5 home states for whatever arbitrary reasons you decide.

Anyway, I'm not about to multiquote the entire thread, but I'll just say that I don't necessarily believe that he'll win New York. However, there are many factors to consider aside from Hillary being elected to Senate by NY, and I think they're being glossed over.

But I'll leave you guys to your echo chamber now before you all have a conniption :)
Click to expand...


Lol echo chamber when we give you links and information and you've backed up absolutely nothing

You clearly don't understand what home state means.

Vermont is Sanders' and NY is Clinton's.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
brainchild said:
Clearly I've hit a nerve, lol. I love how everyone's arguing that NY is not his home state when it LITERALLY BY DEFINITION IS, and simultaneously argue that Hillary has 5 home states for whatever arbitrary reasons you decide.

Anyway, I'm not about to multiquote the entire thread, but I'll just say that I don't necessarily believe that he'll win New York. However, there are many factors to consider aside from Hillary being elected to Senate by NY, and I think they're being glossed over.

But I'll leave you guys to your echo chamber now before you all have a conniption :)
Click to expand...

I don't necessarily believe in changing my underwear daily. Do u
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
The "will of the people" thing is about supers switching to the candidate that won their state. It's still dumb! But less dumb than what you might think it is.
 
E

excelsiorlef

Member
Macho Madness said:
The "will of the people" thing is about supers switching to the candidate that won their state. It's still dumb! But less dumb than what you might think it is.
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They also want supers from Clinton won states to switch.

Also Clinton would still be winning if that happened and still by a great amount.
 
A

Atomic Playboy

Member
brainchild said:
Clearly I've hit a nerve, lol. I love how everyone's arguing that NY is not his home state when it LITERALLY BY DEFINITION IS, and simultaneously argue that Hillary has 5 home states for whatever arbitrary reasons you decide.

Anyway, I'm not about to multiquote the entire thread, but I'll just say that I don't necessarily believe that he'll win New York. However, there are many factors to consider aside from Hillary being elected to Senate by NY, and I think they're being glossed over.

But I'll leave you guys to your echo chamber now before you all have a conniption :)
Click to expand...

Home state has two different meanings. It's either where someone is from (ie grew up as a child) or where someone currently lives. When we talk about it in reference to politics, the second definition makes a lot more sense, as living among the people will endear them to you and give you an advantage over a candidate they are unfamiliar with. Bernie hasn't lived in New York in 50 years... why would New Yorkers feel more connected to him than someone who was a popular Senator elected by the people multiple times and who currently maintains a residence in the state?
 
M

Meowster

Member
I'm glad my vote made the difference in Missouri, I got a lot of shit thrown my way thanks to my proud advocacy for not joining the revolution and becoming a turncloak of the millennials, but it was worth it. #LongLiveTheQueen
 
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