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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Meowster said:
Wait, she's leading by that much? Why is everyone on my timeline arguing about "the will of the people" then?
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It's quite simple. Superdelegates in states won by Sanders should support him because that's the will of the people, while superdelegates in states won by Clinton should support Sanders because of electability and retroactive momentum.
 
U

User 85168

Banned
adam387 said:
I don't wear underwear.

Your move.
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YifevOC.gif
 
B

brainchild

Banned
Atomic Playboy said:
Home state has two different meanings. It's either where someone is from (ie grew up as a child) or where someone currently lives. When we talk about it in reference to politics, the second definition makes a lot more sense, as living among the people will endear them to you and give you an advantage over a candidate they are unfamiliar with. Bernie hasn't lived in New York in 50 years... why would New Yorkers feel more connected to him than someone who was a popular Senator elected by the people multiple times and who currently maintains a residence in the state?
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I never argued he had a home state advantage. I just said that it was his home state. In other words, people in Brooklyn aren't exactly unfamiliar with him, like in other states.

Anyway, poliGAF being convinced that Bernie is going to get destroyed in one of Hillary's 'home states' or advantageous states is nothing new. Sometimes they're right, sometimes they're wrong.

However, my main reason for believing that Bernie has a chance in NY is the sheer amount of time he's going to be able to focus on that state. He's never lost a state that he spent a lot of time campaigning in by significant margins, and I'm just not seeing that happening for NY (or California for that matter).
 
R

RustyNails

Member
brainchild said:
I never argued he had a home state advantage. I just said that it was his home state. In other words, people in Brooklyn aren't exactly unfamiliar with him, like in other states.

Anyway, poliGAF being convinced that Bernie is going to get destroyed in one of Hillary's 'home states' or advantageous states is nothing new. Sometimes they're right, sometimes they're wrong.

However, my main reason for believing that Bernie has a chance in NY is the sheer amount of time he's going to be able to focus on that state. He's never lost a state that he spent a lot of time campaigning in by significant margins, and I'm just not seeing that happening for NY (or California for that matter).
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He lost Iowa.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
brainchild said:
I never argued he had a home state advantage. I just said that it was his home state. In other words, people in Brooklyn aren't exactly unfamiliar with him, like in other states.

Anyway, poliGAF being convinced that Bernie is going to get destroyed in one of Hillary's 'home states' or advantageous states is nothing new. Sometimes they're right, sometimes they're wrong.

However, my main reason for believing that Bernie has a chance in NY is the sheer amount of time he's going to be able to focus on that state. He's never lost a state that he spent a lot of time campaigning in by significant margins, and I'm just not seeing that happening for NY (or California for that matter).
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I'm not of the mindset that she's going to win NY by any more than 10 points, and I'll be damn happy for all 10 of them if that happens. However, the fact that he hasn't lived in Brooklyn in 50 years doesn't mean people are going to be familiar with him in anyway.

But, I think your argument is a bit....contingent upon what we define as "a lot of time campaigning" and "significant margins." Anything less than a 12 point Bernie win is a significant margin in Hillary's favor.

Edit: To be fair, brainchild did quantify any loss in a state Bernie campaigned in heavily to "he never lost by significant margins."

However, I'd argue, even under that definition, Ohio and South Carolina count as significant under the most forgiving of definitions.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
OMG The Onion predicted Trump's abortion thing 2 days ago.

JANESVILLE, WI—Attempting to reduce the negative publicity generated by their candidates’ recent attacks on each other’s wives, top campaign advisors reportedly instructed Republican presidential hopefuls Donald Trump and Ted Cruz in private meetings Monday to stick to just attacking all women in general, sources confirmed. “Using derogatory language and treating women as mere objects is fine, just as long as you make sure you’re making a blanket statement about the entire female population and not a specific candidate’s wife, okay?” said Cruz’s senior communications advisor, Jason Miller, repeating nearly verbatim the advice Trump’s aides reportedly gave the GOP frontrunner earlier in the day during a strategy session. “The public’s not as receptive to you attacking Melania directly, so just keep your statements broader when denying women their individual agency and insinuating they have no identity apart from their connection to men and it’ll continue to go over great. Let’s stick with what’s been working.” Advisors from both campaigns assured their candidates they could be as specific as they wanted when making sexist remarks about Hillary Clinton, however.
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B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
brainchild said:
I never argued he had a home state advantage. I just said that it was his home state. In other words, people in Brooklyn aren't exactly unfamiliar with him, like in other states.

Anyway, poliGAF being convinced that Bernie is going to get destroyed in one of Hillary's 'home states' or advantageous states is nothing new. Sometimes they're right, sometimes they're wrong.

However, my main reason for believing that Bernie has a chance in NY is the sheer amount of time he's going to be able to focus on that state. He's never lost a state that he spent a lot of time campaigning in by significant margins, and I'm just not seeing that happening for NY (or California for that matter).
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He hasn't lived in Brooklyn in 50 years, there's no reason to think they'd be familiar with him other than the fact that's where the hipsters come from.
 
Z

Zornack

Member
brainchild said:
I never argued he had a home state advantage. I just said that it was his home state. In other words, people in Brooklyn aren't exactly unfamiliar with him, like in other states.

Anyway, poliGAF being convinced that Bernie is going to get destroyed in one of Hillary's 'home states' or advantageous states is nothing new. Sometimes they're right, sometimes they're wrong.

However, my main reason for believing that Bernie has a chance in NY is the sheer amount of time he's going to be able to focus on that state. He's never lost a state that he spent a lot of time campaigning in by significant margins, and I'm just not seeing that happening for NY (or California for that matter).
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Sanders has never held public office in NY and hasn't lived there for 48 years. Why would people in Brooklyn be familiar with him?
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
johnsmith said:
http://www.clickhole.com/blogpost/s...ult&utm_medium=ShareTools&utm_source=facebook

Sorry Bernie Bros, Your Candidate Just Doesn’t Have The Foreign Policy Experience Necessary To Prop Up A Pro-Western Dictatorship
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my name is ed said:
From Clickhole - Sorry Bernie Bros, Your Candidate Just Doesn’t Have The Foreign Policy Experience Necessary
lmao

edit: dammit beaten
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Eh, you were both beaten :p

Suikoguy said:
You know who is trolling lately? Clickhole.

Good to know that's another thing that some Bernie Bros share with Conservatives, lack of awareness of Satire.
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U

User 463088

Banned
Let's say we agree that Bernie wins/only loses by a little where he campaigns, then the fact that he committed electoral malfeasance by, you know, not contesting every state, doesn't make him look good.
 
B

brainchild

Banned
excelsiorlef said:
And he out spent Clinton in South Carolina.
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Bernie outspends Hillary damn near everywhere. That is not a good metric to determine how heavily be campaigns in a state, since 'outspending' is a relative term.

excelsiorlef said:
If he loses NY at all or even miraculously wins it by a little it's still bad for him
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Yes, I agree.

B-Dubs said:
He hasn't lived in Brooklyn in 50 years, there's no reason to think they'd be familiar with him other than the fact that's where the hipsters come from.
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Well, it's not that lots of people are familiar with him in Brooklyn. It has more to do with the people who are personally familiar with him likely spreading the word about him in Brooklyn. He doesn't have that advantage in any other state but Vermont (and maybe Illinois).
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
brainchild said:
Well, it's not that lots of people are familiar with him in Brooklyn. It has more to do with the people who are personally familiar with him likely spreading the word about him in Brooklyn. He doesn't have that advantage in any other state but Vermont (and maybe Illinois).
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This is word salad.
 
A

Armaros

Member
brainchild said:
Well, it's not that lots of people are familiar with him in Brooklyn. It has more to do with the people who are personally familiar with him likely spreading the word about him in Brooklyn. He doesn't have that advantage in any other state but Vermont (and maybe Illinois).
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You are still not making any sense. How does this help Bernie, and yet you discount Hillary's almost 2 decades of living in NY, serving as a extremely popular senator, and HQ for her political campaign and charity foundations.
 
O

Owzers

Member
I don't know what Cruz is trying to do attacking Trump for his "abortion punishment" thing, it sounds like he's just complaining about the message and not the policy.
 
M

Mael

Member
There's BerniBros who believe that Clinton invented Super Delegates?
Can we get to know how Facebook manages to gather people from other dimensions to interact with us?
Or alternatively really how old is Clinton?
 
B

brainchild

Banned
shinra-bansho said:
South Carolina.

Ohio.

Arizona.

This is a pointless exercise though.

Significant margins is ymmv.

Significant resources in time / money is ymmv.
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The bolded is my perspective. The margins were significant, but not the time/concentration. Had he spent a few more weeks in those states, I believe that he would've be able to close the gaps significantly.

NY is totally different. He doesn't need to stretch his resources with other states to any significant degree, and he has plenty of time to make an impact.
 
K

Kyosaiga

Banned
Mael said:
There's BerniBros who believe that Clinton invented Super Delegates?
Can we get to know how Facebook manages to gather people from other dimensions to interact with us?
Or alternatively really how old is Clinton?
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I wonder how many Bernie Supporters inadvertedly created a ton of Hillary supporters on social media, because of the obnoxious delusion.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
brainchild said:
The bolded is my perspective. The margins were significant, but not the time/concentration. Had he spent a few more weeks in those states, I believe that he would've be able to close the gaps significantly.

NY is totally different. He doesn't need to stretch his resources with other states to any significant degree, and he has plenty of time to make an impact.
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Bernie had way more events in Arizona than Hillary did. I believe she had a total of one. If Bernie had another year or two, sure. Definitely He could totally win this thing. I think he'd be in the lead sometime around August of next year if the trends continue.

But, I take issue with your characterization of New York. Bernie si still having to spend time and resources on Wisconsin. Maybe he's ahead by a few, but he has to run up margins there. That takes time and effort, which means he can't be laser like focused on New York. But, let's say he does focus extensively on NY. There are 384 delegates available a week later. A 5 point win in NY can be immediately erased with a 20 point win by Hillary in Maryland.

NY is problematic for Bernie in that it is closed, the deadline to change your party registration was back in October, Hillary has connections to the political machinery in the state, she has the surrogates, she has the ground game, she has the electoral connections...and your argument is Bernie was born in Brooklyn, ergo it might be close. I don't see it.
 
B

brainchild

Banned
Hobbestetrician said:
Waiting to see how Tyler works Bernie's NY home state bump into his model before making any proclamations.
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Tyler's margins are just too unreliable for me to take seriously. Sometimes they're spot on (Washington), and sometimes they're way off (Arizona). I will give him credit for being consistently better at predictions than the polls though.
 
M

Maledict

Member
How so? Outside of Michigan and possibly Illinios the polls on the democrat side haven't been bad at all. Tyler on the other hand has had one success (Michigan) and a number of complete failures.
 
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