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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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jtb

Banned
I think her hawkishness stood out to a lot of voters. I mean, Obama wasn't winning the young vote because he was perceived to be the more moderate of the two, regardless of how their positions actually aligned.

I don't totally agree -- he positioned himself as a centrist unifier and I think that's something that resonated very strongly with young voters. it may not have been a conscious choice based on policies, but there is something inherently moderate about that.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Seeing that PPP poll makes me feel much better about things. Ted Cruz is extremely unlikeable, second only to Trump. I was afraid he was more liked than Hillary... It's good to know most of America views him the same way I do.

Which poll?
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
So, can someone explain what the benefits of a bicameral legislature are? Like, I understand it when it comes to the federal government. One body more or less represents the people, while the other represents that states. But what does a state gain by having a bicameral legislature?

It has to do with the urban/rural divide. Cities would rule the states and basically do whatever they want if it wasn't bicameral.
 

Drek

Member
So, can someone explain what the benefits of a bicameral legislature are? Like, I understand it when it comes to the federal government. One body more or less represents the people, while the other represents that states. But what does a state gain by having a bicameral legislature?

The benefits/negatives really depend on a state by state situation. I would argue it is primarily a legacy stemming from the original framers of the union supporting it at the national level and their template being co-opted for better or worse at the state levels.

In theory it would allow two different perspectives of representing a constituency. Any large state with a single powerful, peak population region would gain nearly unilateral control over the state government. This is true in New York, a state dominated by NYC, where the state senate, based off of districts, is 99-49 D to R, but their state legislature is 26-4-32 D-I-R. This is a product of slanting the political power structure to disproportionately favor rural and suburban voters over urban voters in fear of a strong urban voter block. NY would likely a borderline stated if you carved NYC off, but as NYC represents about half of the total population in the state.

Much of our legislative structure was design to devalue the vote of various people. The U.S. Senate for example explicitly exists to be a check on populist sentiment overtaking the Congress. The original method was straight up cronyism that has since been replaced with another structure that over-empowers voters in smaller population states while those same voters are more accurately represented in the House.

At the heart of the matter is whether or not you think there is ever any benefit in weakening one voting block in favor of another. I'm personally not a big fan but urbanization has been a real concern in politics far longer than the current plight of the GOP and bicameral government is one hell of a firewall against urbanization resulting in an unchecked block of politicians taking over the entirety of the political process.
 

Ophelion

Member
I'm watching Daredevil S1 and she's easily the worst part of it.

That's saying a lot considering how most people feel about Foggy on that show.

As an only semi-related note, I made an argument in OT on the subject of superhero presidential candidates that I would rather have a President Murdock than a President Wayne. It's a slow politics day so far. Thoughts?
 
I've said it before, but when Obama refused to block the bank bonuses in his first couple months, he really lost his chance to be the people's president. That was one of the moments when you could feel the air start to leak out of the balloon.

That's saying a lot considering how most people feel about Foggy on that show.

Foggy is amazing.

Also, the best thing on tv right now is 11.22.63. Shame it's almost over.
 
I don't totally agree -- he positioned himself as a centrist unifier and I think that's something that resonated very strongly with young voters. it may not have been a conscious choice based on policies, but there is something inherently moderate about that.

I wasn't paying attention much to the primary back then because I was going to vote for either but the narrative I remember was that Obama was much more liberal.
 
That's saying a lot considering how most people feel about Foggy on that show.

As an only semi-related note, I made an argument in OT on the subject of superhero presidential candidates that I would rather have a President Murdock than a President Wayne. It's a slow politics day so far. Thoughts?
Yea Foggy is awful too. Dude just delivers line like he's reading prompts. No presence. Sad!

President Wayne is easily the the most sensible choice. Understanding your limits, knowing how the world works and spending money to better fight crime and poverty? Absolutely.
 

Ophelion

Member
Foggy is amazing.

I don't disagree. Lots of people hate him though for some reason. I've always thought he's been deeply entertaining when he's not all like, "Matt, I know you're saving the city from a literal ninja apocalypse, but that doesn't matter! You made me look a little disorganized in court!"

I mean...perspective, Foggy. Perspective.
 

BSsBrolly

Banned
Sanders is underwater right now and he hasn't even been attacked from the right! What a MESS

Yeah, I'm just relieved that people actually see Cruz for what he is. Plus, I think Cruz would become even more unfavorable if he secured the nomination. Once the spotlight is on him and him alone. No trump to suck up all the hate.
 

teiresias

Member
Yep. Which is an intellectually dishonest claim to make when you consider how much effect demographics has on the Democratic electorate.

The thing that REALLY bothers me about this approach is that it's so obviously not true to anyone with any knowledge of the primary process, that they can't honestly believe such an argument will mean anything to super delegates.

The argument literally has no audience than Bernie supporters and no purpose other than to rile up resentments upon his supporters towards Hillary and the party apparatus itselff - which obviously makes using the argument even more toxic to super delegates.

This does not strike me as the arguments to be made by someone interested in helping this party moving forward or even interested in whether they win against a far-right or fascist opponent during the GE, because it's entire purpose is to build resentment amongst his supporter to such a degree that they stay home during the GE or, heaven forbid, vote GOP out of spite.
 
W4Moely.png


Well Cruz is done.
 
It has to do with the urban/rural divide. Cities would rule the states and basically do whatever they want if it wasn't bicameral.

The benefits/negatives really depend on a state by state situation. I would argue it is primarily a legacy stemming from the original framers of the union supporting it at the national level and their template being co-opted for better or worse at the state levels.

In theory it would allow two different perspectives of representing a constituency. Any large state with a single powerful, peak population region would gain nearly unilateral control over the state government. This is true in New York, a state dominated by NYC, where the state senate, based off of districts, is 99-49 D to R, but their state legislature is 26-4-32 D-I-R. This is a product of slanting the political power structure to disproportionately favor rural and suburban voters over urban voters in fear of a strong urban voter block. NY would likely a borderline stated if you carved NYC off, but as NYC represents about half of the total population in the state.

Much of our legislative structure was design to devalue the vote of various people. The U.S. Senate for example explicitly exists to be a check on populist sentiment overtaking the Congress. The original method was straight up cronyism that has since been replaced with another structure that over-empowers voters in smaller population states while those same voters are more accurately represented in the House.

At the heart of the matter is whether or not you think there is ever any benefit in weakening one voting block in favor of another. I'm personally not a big fan but urbanization has been a real concern in politics far longer than the current plight of the GOP and bicameral government is one hell of a firewall against urbanization resulting in an unchecked block of politicians taking over the entirety of the political process.

Honestly, I have no clue. Especially since state legislative districts must be roughly equal in population, having two chambers seems entirely redundant.

Thanks for the answers. I guess it just seems stupid to me, because I think urban areas should have more say. They have more people! But I guess I can't say that I don't understand the argument against it. I just don't agree with it.

Given Reynolds v. Sims, the whole thing seems even stupider than I previously believed.
 

Ophelion

Member
President Wayne is easily the the most sensible choice. Understanding your limits, knowing how the world works and spending money to better fight crime and poverty? Absolutely.

Interesting! I see your point though.

In fairness, my first picks are still President Rogers or President Kent, but I suppose when you put it like that President Wayne wouldn't be so bad.
 

pigeon

Banned
That's saying a lot considering how most people feel about Foggy on that show.

As an only semi-related note, I made an argument in OT on the subject of superhero presidential candidates that I would rather have a President Murdock than a President Wayne. It's a slow politics day so far. Thoughts?

President Allen is the only correct choice. Biggest problem the president faces is not enough time in the day. Except he's a little young but maybe we can make an argument on the basis of time travel or something.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
President Allen is the only correct choice. Biggest problem the president faces is not enough time in the day. Except he's a little young but maybe we can make an argument on the basis of time travel or something.

President Wayne doesn't need to sleep. Plus VP Grayson is more than capable of filling his shoes.
 

pigeon

Banned
President Wayne doesn't need to sleep. Plus VP Grayson is more than capable of filling his shoes.

They live in the same state! Shenanigans!

I also much prefer the Flash on the campaign trail. Don't underestimate the time and energy cost of travel while campaigning.

Also, Wayne is just another elite billionaire. Barry Allen served the people as a CSI. He knows what working people go through!
 
By our calculations, he would have to increase the white working class male vote share from 17 to 37 percent to reach parity in the popular vote with Clinton. That would require a 100 percent turnout of those voters.
YcXmAGJ.png
Trump just needs 100% turnout from the white working class male vote and he's narrowly got this!
 

Captain Pants

Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
J'onn J'onzz would be ineligible, but having a telepath in the White House could be pretty handy for diplomacy and negotiating with congress.

edit: I guess he could just sub in for whoever is President in critical moments to read minds.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
They live in the same state! Shenanigans!

I also much prefer the Flash on the campaign trail. Don't underestimate the time and energy cost of travel while campaigning.

Also, Wayne is just another elite billionaire. Barry Allen served the people as a CSI. He knows what working people go through!

Wayne is a humanitarian and has personally experienced the worst that life has to offer. He knows exactly how bad it can get out there.
 

Ophelion

Member
President Allen is the only correct choice. Biggest problem the president faces is not enough time in the day. Except he's a little young but maybe we can make an argument on the basis of time travel or something.

I would vote for President Allen in a second. Think of the science grants! #MakeAmericaFastAgain

Imma need to see that birth certificate.

Not this shit again...lol. I kind of feel like maybe you get a pass if your birthplace is entirely exploded.
 
Someone should do the math but I think he'd need to basically make Hillary non-viable in California at that point.

yep, assuming the rest of the states play out the way demographics and polling would indicate (basically meaning Clinton only wins territories between April 26 and June 7), he'd literally need to beat her 86-14 in CA
 

Ophelion

Member
Wayne is a humanitarian and has personally experienced the worst that life has to offer. He knows exactly how bad it can get out there.

Counterpoint: Wayne has a son with a woman who runs one of the world's largest terrorist organizations. "Can you trust Bruce Wayne, the Father of Terror?" Damien Wayne is an optics nightmare. Unless we're running the Nolan Batman. In which case, the Talia al Ghul sex scandal is still waiting in the wings.
 

Wilsongt

Member
Oh boy. The GOP fools are out in full force today. From Rove wanting to ignore voters, to Cruz wanting to instate national right to work, and Kansas wanting to impeach its SC justices.
 

Maledict

Member
No, because enough has been done to stop him and he's shot himself in the foot enough to actually start damaging his numbers and unifying the opposition. also because the field has narrowed so much. in addition, you read the stories about how many of his delegates are going to bolt on the second ballot at the convention - the establishment and party is doing everything it can to make sure it's not him.

Not saying that won't also screw them completely, but I don't think it will hurt as much as having Trump on the ticket will do.
 
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