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[FloydtheFathead]

Is this a response to the poll? Because that one is full of devastating numbers about what happens if the Republicans screw Trump as well.

That was the best part. There is no correct path really. There's only complete destruction and significant damage.

Ivy, make sure you watch your heart. We don't want you keeling over.

Even I am starting to doubt Trump pulling it out in the end. I can't see him hitting 1237 and I really wish he would.

 

[Big Baybee]

Could them letting Trump have the nomination slap their base back into reality when the results come in?


LOL

 

[ampere]

?????????????????? #??????

Use Twitter more

Said no one ever

 

[Macho Madness]

DFM Research of Minnesota poll

Missouri

Clinton 42
Trump 40

 

[Jack Remington]

I think Hillary wins just as easily against Cruz as she does against Trump. I was hoping for Trump because it could have served as a moment of clarity for the nation. It would have forced the Republicans to change course a lot more quickly than Cruz will do.

 

[ivysaur12]

DFM Research of Minnesota poll

Missouri

Clinton 42
Trump 40

omg omg omg omgomg ogmgogmogmgogog

TRUMP PLS JUST DO IT

 

[RastaMentality]

Trump needs to fucking win this primary. I'm voting for him in California.

 

[Ecotic]

I think Hillary wins just as easily against Cruz as she does against Trump. I was hoping for Trump because it could have served as a moment of clarity for the nation. It would have forced the Republicans to change course a lot more quickly than Cruz will do.

I think Trump could delay any realization. Many in the party will say they lost because they didn't have a principled conservative, and go with someone like Cruz next time.

 

[ivysaur12]

Trump needs to fucking win this primary. I'm voting for him in California.

Would I need to change my registration to a Republican

Do I want to do this

Can I do this

Can I morally do this

 

[excelsiorlef]

I think Trump could delay any realization. Many in the party will say they lost because they didn't have a principled conservative, and go with someone like Cruz next time.

Agreed

 

[VendettaRed07]

Trump needs to fucking win this primary. I'm voting for him in California.

I think I would too at this point if CT was an open primary or the deadline to switch hadn't already passed

 

[ivysaur12]

I think I would too at this point if CT was an open primary or the deadline to switch hadn't already passed

He's already going to win CT by a lot.

 

[VendettaRed07]

He's already going to win CT by a lot.

Wasn't it close between him and Kasich here? I thought this was one of the states Kasich was going to be competitive in. Can't find any good polls

 

[FloydtheFathead]

Would I need to change my registration to a Republican

Do I want to do this

Can I do this

Can I morally do this

Ivy, if you need the reason.. Look at that document Baesilus posted and look at that Missouri poll and one more thing to think about is Ginsburg's empty seat in your mind.

Picture that.. And you tell me if you can do it..

 

[Macho Madness]

Yamiche Alcindor ✔ ‎@Yamiche
.@rosariodawson: "When Hillary Clinton was senator here we had 2 million ppl who were stopped & frisked in this state...90%...were innocent"

This is... her... fault?

 

[Cybit]

From here.
Oh dear. The whole document is full of amazing material like this.

I'm a little hesitant to be fully trustworthy of Pro-Democrat polling numbers from "Democracycorps.com"; kinda like how I'd sort of give the AEI polling numbers a grain of salt.

As for the Clinton / Obama "who is more progressive" fight - part of the reason there are rose colored goggles (and frankly, a lot of cherry picked bullshit, I adore you Hill-GAF, but gonna call out the circlejerk on this one) on Clinton's "progressiveness" in 2016 is because currently social values are the leading push for progressive values. Which wasn't the case in 2008.

In 2008; it was primarily foreign policy / Iraq War that was driving progressive politics - in which Clinton is very hawkish. Iraq / Afghanistan haven't been a big political factor since before even the 2012 election. You can't compare what is primarily driving progressive (and, hell, all) politics in 2016 (identity) with what was driving 2008 (foreign policy) and then apply 2016 standards in 2008 and declare retroactive victory.

 

[B-Dubs]

This is... her... fault?

Does, does she not realize Senators have no power over what the Mayor does? Blame Bloomberg for that shit, he's the one that did it.

 

[Armaros]

I'm a little hesitant to be fully trustworthy of Pro-Democrat polling numbers from "Democracycorps.com"; kinda like how I'd sort of give the AEI polling numbers a grain of salt.

As for the Clinton / Obama "who is more progressive" fight - part of the reason there are rose colored goggles (and frankly, a lot of cherry picked bullshit, I adore you Hill-GAF, but gonna call out the circlejerk on this one) on Clinton's "progressiveness" in 2016 is because currently social values are the leading push for progressive values. Which wasn't the case in 2008.

In 2008; it was primarily foreign policy / Iraq War that was driving progressive politics - in which Clinton is very hawkish. Iraq / Afghanistan haven't been a big political factor since before even the 2012 election. You can't compare what is primarily driving progressive (and, hell, all) politics in 2016 (identity) with what was driving 2008 (foreign policy) and then apply 2016 standards in 2008 and declare retroactive victory.

Healthcare? Are you trying to rewrite 2008 and claim it was only about Iraq?

Talk about rosy goggles.

 

[studyguy]

Would I need to change my registration to a Republican

Do I want to do this

Can I do this

Can I morally do this

We have a closed primary for presidental elections. You'd have to swap I believe in CA.

 

[Macho Madness]

I thought California was semi-open?

 

[Holmes]

Let's start a hashtag #WhenHillaryWasSenator

 

[NeoXChaos]

I thought California was semi-open?

yes it is.

 

[superdeluxe]

I really need to stop engaging Sanders suppoprters on FB. It makes me want to blow my brains out.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

I think Hillary wins just as easily against Cruz as she does against Trump. I was hoping for Trump because it could have served as a moment of clarity for the nation. It would have forced the Republicans to change course a lot more quickly than Cruz will do.

I think Trump would force a logistical reorganization of the Republican Party and the RNC just to avoid having someone hijack the primary like this again.* Maybe he puts the lie to some of their stances and values as well, but I think they could argue that his views are so wackadoo that his loss doesn't really represent a rejection of true conservative values. Trump is an organizational embarrassment more than anything else.

Cruz would spell the end of the Tea Party as an influential movement. The whole party would have to moderate going forward, as they can only distance themselves from him as a matter of degrees, not fundamentally.

Also, Cruz will come back in 2020 if Trump is the nominee and I don't feel like seeing his lizard face again.


*OK this is obviously happening regardless

 

[Voysa Reezun]

If they're screwed either way, why give it to Trump at that point?

Not to fracture a significant amount of their base from the rest of the party? If you're going to lose, might as well placate the openly racist, sexist, xenophobic, etc. voters who make up 30-35% of your base.

Then again, that's only a short-term "fix." Maybe the GOP is willing to blow it all up and start over.

 

[noshten]

This is... her... fault?

Hasn't stopped people in this thread accusing Sanders of not doing enough in his home state
Guess some people prefer to dish it out

 

[studyguy]

I thought California was semi-open?

Not for presidential primary iirc just state or congressional. I'd love to be wrong if I'm working off wrong/old info.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

I like LOTR, it was one of the first fantasy series I read. I remember finishing it and having a variety of questions and complaints about the happily ever after ending (with respect to Aragorn's reign). Later when I found Game Of Thrones/A Song Of Ice and Fire I read that the author had the exact same reaction to LOTR's ending as I did.

So I enjoy the historical lore as much as I enjoy the actual story/plot. Having hundreds of years worth of kings with reigns that vary in success or failure makes it pretty fun to debate or think about.

Favorite ASOIAF king: Aegon V Targaryen. Far from the best king (that would probably be Jahaerys I), and he's sort of the Jimmy Carter of the series. Honorable, highly qualified guy who tried to change the system but couldn't, and made some big mistakes that nearly destroyed his house.

 

[B-Dubs]

Hasn't stopped people in this thread accusing Sanders of not doing enough in his home state
Guess some people prefer to dish it out

Yes, because ignoring African-American activists in your state is exactly the same as being blamed for a policy you literally had no say in. Totally the same thing.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Hasn't stopped people in this thread accusing Sanders of not doing enough in his home state

in addition to b-dubs' point: today i learned this thread is a national celebrity turned hillary clinton campaign surrogate with 550,000 twitter followers who will uncritically lap up the shit we say

 

[ivysaur12]

Wasn't it close between him and Kasich here? I thought this was one of the states Kasich was going to be competitive in. Can't find any good polls

No, it's super super heavy on Trump.

Ivy, if you need the reason.. Look at that document Baesilus posted and look at that Missouri poll and one more thing to think about is Ginsburg's empty seat in your mind.

Picture that.. And you tell me if you can do it..

MORALLY tho. MORALLY

 

[theprodigy]

in addition to b-dubs' point: today i learned this thread is a national celebrity turned hillary clinton campaign surrogate with 550,000 twitter followers who will uncritically lap up the shit we say

what

 

[eBay Huckster]

what

trying to make a contrast with Rosario Dawson there (who is all of that except a Sanders surrogate)

in that no, it's not even remotely the same if someone ITT says a thing like that

 

[pigeon]

No, it's super super heavy on Trump.



MORALLY tho. MORALLY

Speaking for all people of color I officially decree it's not racist to vote for Trump in the primary if your goal is to destroy the Republican Party.

Unless he wins the general and then you've got some splaining to do.

 

[excelsiorlef]

Yes, because ignoring African-American activists in your state is exactly the same as being blamed for a policy you literally had no say in. Totally the same thing.

He's talking about in incarceration rates. Which is still disingenuous because there's a yuuuuge difference between a state wide issue and police procedure in a city.

 

[ivysaur12]

Speaking for all people of color I officially decree it's not racist to vote for Trump in the primary if your goal is to destroy the Republican Party.

Unless he wins the general and then you've got some splaining to do.

But what if he wins then I feel like shit

 

[JesseEwiak]

They live in the same state! Shenanigans!

I also much prefer the Flash on the campaign trail. Don't underestimate the time and energy cost of travel while campaigning.

Also, Wayne is just another elite billionaire. Barry Allen served the people as a CSI. He knows what working people go through!

Gotham and Bludhaven. Two different places. Know your DC history.

 

[Cybit]

I also still think I want Cruz over Trump as my GE candidate. The potential down-ticket benefits are being overstated (because we're in primary mode, not GE mode, kind of how like Bernie supporters are much more to claim they won't vote Clinton now than they will in October) IMO, and I'd rather take the much smaller possibility Cruz surprises us in the GE than Trump.

 

[Basileus777]

I also still think I want Cruz over Trump as my GE candidate. The potential down-ticket benefits are being overstated (because we're in primary mode, not GE mode, kind of how like Bernie supporters are much more to claim they won't vote Clinton now than they will in October) IMO, and I'd rather take the much smaller possibility Cruz surprises us in the GE than Trump.

But Cruz has a better chance of winning in the GE than Trump. Donald has no path to victory, he's a historically bad candidate on a tier even worse than Cruz.

 

[FloydtheFathead]

MORALLY tho. MORALLY

Ok. I'll give it a shot.

Look at this way, a vote for Trump would (hopefully) lead to a reorganization of the Republican Party correct?

And I assume that it is in agreement that a reasonable opposition party is a good thing?

And I assume that most people here (Hi Benji) believe that good government helps ensure that individuals have stability in their lives and not lead to anarchy overall correct?

So if we agree that good government is necessary to ensuring society works and a good government needs a sane opposition party. It could be morally acceptable to vote for Trump in the primary.

That work?

TlR. Vote for Trump to try and break the Republican Party and make the government great again.

 

[Box of Kittens]

Cruz might force Republicans to face the reality of the "we need to run a true conservative" denial of the failures of McCain and Romney. On the other hand Trump could force them to deal with the consequences of the Southern Strategy. In either case the party may just try to paper over their problems for now by changing the nomination rules.

In the long run I think it's more important that the Republicans make a break with the Southern Strategy, though I tend that think that is inevitable if they want to remain viable, it's just a question of when. In the shorter term Clinton beating Cruz could do some real damage to the Tea Party, which would be most welcome.

To make a long story short, it's not 100% clear to me which is the best case scenario for the Democrats.

 

[johnsmith]

Lyin Ted is going to steal the nomination at the convention. I'm sure of it.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/trumps-uphill-delegate-scramble-221443

 

[Aaron Strife]

Well that Democracy Corps report looks pretty damn good for the Democrats so I'm kind of hoping its Trump.

They have Democrats up by 6 on the congressional ballot - 7 is what would make it 50/50.

 

[pigeon]

But Cruz has a better chance of winning in the GE than Trump. Donald has no path to victory, he's a historically bad candidate on a tier even worse than Cruz.

It's a risk management question. Cruz has no downside risk for us -- he'll definitely lose. There's no Cruz surprise.

Trump on average will be even worse than Cruz but there's arguably a non-zero downside risk that maybe America is totally insane and he wins.

The exact reality of that downside risk is a topic for debate, but Cybit is professionally cautious about it.

 

[User 406]

How did Hillary do that well internationally. I'm going to go with name rec, but I said damn.

Light side Iron Lady, maybe? :X

Also, I'd like to sit down and talk with the 2% of Europeans who would be relieved if Trump won. What are their lives like?

I'm guessing a segment of that are Norwegian gaffers who want to protect their position of being able to look down their nose at the US while fake lamenting how we need to be all enlightened and advanced like them and by the way, what is a senate?

But while we're mentioning popular things we hate, I hate coffee. Everyone thinks it's weird. And stranger still, I do enjoy most coffee flavored things like ice cream or tiramisu. I can even drink an ice blended coffee. But hot coffee? How do people like this? Black, cream, milk, Sugar. It don't matter. It always gross.

And If I hear one more person say "what? You don't like coffee???" I swear there will be hell to pay.

I'm with you on the coffee, man. Can't stand the stuff. Oddly, I think it smells nice, but fuck drinking that shit. Although considering how many people essentially buy turbocharged sugar milkshakes with trace amounts of coffee in them now, I'm not sure I'd notice.

Jindal: Trump Will ‘Never Be Able to Convince’ Me He’s Conservative

What the FUCK kind of shit-ass bullshit journalism is this? It's FONZIE. FONZIE. FUCK!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BDumsN1NCGg

Lmao these anti Cruz ads are too much. Lyin Ted

Now that's just misrepresenting things. We all saw Ted's mouth move to reassimilate a wayward secretion. That wasn't a lie.

Well Cruz is done.

But I thought Prince left the internet because the internet fad was over.

 

[Cybit]

Healthcare? Are you trying to rewrite 2008 and claim it was only about Iraq?

Talk about rosy goggles.

A) Health care was probably the biggest domestic issue - but it still paled in comparison to Iraq War support based on the metrics we were seeing - especially at the beginning. While (IMO) Obama's better ran campaign and charisma were probably the single biggest drivers in his victory over Clinton - but if you are looking at only the who is more "progressive" argument (which..is sort of a dumb argument, since progressive is not a stable concept, but w/e); it was heavily dominated by Iraq (mostly because RomneyCare was the plan being looked at) and foreign policy, along with the concept of "hope" and "less partisanship".

But Cruz has a better chance of winning in the GE than Trump. Donald has no path to victory, he's a historically bad candidate on a tier even worse than Cruz.

He has a slightly better chance at winning the GE assuming everything plays out normally. Which it hasn't at all. I'd rather take the 95% chance of a 5% margin of victory than a 90% chance of a 10% margin - just because I'd rather not fuck around with Trump managing to hit Clinton the same way he has taken out every GOP primary opponent he bothered to deal with.

 

[Macho Madness]

The FBI’s Interview of Hillary Clinton Will Save Obama’s Legacy and Nominate Bernie Sanders

 

[Basileus777]

It's a risk management question. Cruz has no downside risk for us -- he'll definitely lose. There's no Cruz surprise.

Trump on average will be even worse than Cruz but there's arguably a non-zero downside risk that maybe America is totally insane and he wins.

The exact reality of that downside risk is a topic for debate, but Cybit is professionally cautious about it.

I'm not sure that I agree that Trump has a greater chance of some shocking surprise victory, not with the way he is completely dead in the water with women. The votes just don't exist for him to make up for his glaring weaknesses. The "working white male voters giving Trump the rust belt" is a farcical scenario.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

The FBI’s Interview of Hillary Clinton Will Save Obama’s Legacy and Nominate Bernie Sanders

I can't wait for his meltdown

 

[Ecotic]

To be honest I'm still worried a contested convention could see Kasich or Paul Ryan nominated and Trump opts not to run third party. Today it looks very unlikely, but the convention is three and a half months away, maybe events transpire in that time to lead Republicans to finally realize the stakes and how neither Trump or Cruz can deliver Scalia's seat and the other seats to come.

I would rather have Trump win a majority outright than take any chances of that happening. I'm hoping a big win in New York and then the April 26th primaries can get his nomination back on track.