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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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F

Farmboy

Member
pigeon said:
Trump on average will be even worse than Cruz but there's arguably a non-zero downside risk that maybe America is totally insane and he wins.

The exact reality of that downside risk is a topic for debate, but Cybit is professionally cautious about it.
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I agree with this. Also add that Cruz would need to 'steal' the nomination at the convention at this point, which further weakens him however it plays out. And possible destroys him if Trump and his supporters go nuclear.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Ecotic said:
To be honest I'm still worried a contested convention could see Kasich or Paul Ryan nominated and Trump opts not to run third party. Today it looks very unlikely, but the convention is three and a half months away, maybe events transpire in that time to lead Republicans to finally realize the stakes and how neither Trump or Cruz can deliver Scalia's seat and the other seats to come.

I would rather have Trump win a majority outright than take any chances of that happening. I'm hoping a big win in New York and then the April 26th primaries can get his nomination back on track.
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Cruz is too savvy and strong with the GOP delegates for this to happen. I wouldn't put much stock in anyone out organizing him and overcoming both Cruz and Trump to allow a rule change to enable this, and then actually getting a majority of delegates to vote for it to happen. Unless Cruz really gets ruined by a sex scandal or something he's the only alternative to Trump.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
The mistake a lot of pundits made about Trump, including Nate Silver who should know better, is that they assumed the polls would be wrong.

That's different than saying "The polls show Clinton beating Trump"
 
H

Holmes

Member
I've gotten tired of the "if she has nothing to hide, why doesn't she release all her emails?" re: the few left that are top secret argument. Can I see all of the emails Sanders has sent from 2009 to 2013?
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Holmes said:
I've gotten tired of the "if she has nothing to hide, why doesn't she release all her emails?" re: the few left that are top secret argument. Can I see all of the emails Sanders has sent from 2009 to 2013?
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I've seen some people suggest she was behind the voting problems in Arizona. People would object, and the accuser would say "Prove she didn't do it."

It doesn't work like that.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
Box of Kittens said:
Cruz might force Republicans to face the reality of the "we need to run a true conservative" denial of the failures of McCain and Romney. On the other hand Trump could force them to deal with the consequences of the Southern Strategy. In either case the party may just try to paper over their problems for now by changing the nomination rules.

In the long run I think it's more important that the Republicans make a break with the Southern Strategy, though I tend that think that is inevitable if they want to remain viable, it's just a question of when. In the shorter term Clinton beating Cruz could do some real damage to the Tea Party, which would be most welcome.

To make a long story short, it's not 100% clear to me which is the best case scenario for the Democrats.
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This would require the far right to be truthful, which isn't the case. The reality is that they'll continue to deny and spin losses no matter what. If Cruz loses it'll be the fault of the liberal media and establishment republicans.

The GOP is not going to repent. They're stuck in an infinite loop: after November's disaster they will talk about the need to become more inclusive, moderate, etc. Yet by 2018 they'll be gearing up to win House seats with more right wing FUD. And in 2020 they'll trot out another candidate is either an extremist or a moderate who went so far right to win the nomination that he is DOA in a general election. The good news for them is that party fatigue, scandal, or economic downturn could sweep them into the WH. The bad news is that the longer they wait to evolve as a party, the worse they'll do under normal circumstances.
 
J

jtb

Banned
Kasich does not have the political savvy to muscle his way through a contested convention like Cruz does.
 
O

Ophelion

Member
Macho Madness said:
I've seen some people suggest she was behind the voting problems in Arizona. People would object, and the accuser would say "Prove she didn't do it."

It doesn't work like that.
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You know what I'd love? A world in which everyone mutually agrees that the burden of proof is on the claimant. That would be delightful.
 
C

Clefargle

Member
I'm glad Sam Seder keeps it real and always reminds me that the republicans will absolutely blame everything on trump and try to say he was responsible for racism in their party once he inevitably loses the general. They won't fix their issues, they'll just blame it on one guy and keep trucking.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Sea Manky said:
If H. A. Goodman and Bill Kristol bet on the opposite sides of a coin flip, will the coin simply never land?
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aH3xCIR.gif
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Cesare Borgia said:
This would require the far right to be truthful, which isn't the case. The reality is that they'll continue to deny and spin losses no matter what. If Cruz loses it'll be the fault of the liberal media and establishment republicans.

The GOP is not going to repent. They're stuck in an infinite loop: after November's disaster they will talk about the need to become more inclusive, moderate, etc. Yet by 2018 they'll be gearing up to win House seats with more right wing FUD. And in 2020 they'll trot out another candidate is either an extremist or a moderate who went so far right to win the nomination that he is DOA in a general election. The good news for them is that party fatigue, scandal, or economic downturn could sweep them into the WH. The bad news is that the longer they wait to evolve as a party, the worse they'll do under normal circumstances.
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Sadly, this is probably correct.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Later in the interview segment, Sanders expressed confidence in his campaign's momentum, referring to victories in six of the last seven caucus states. Clinton has fared better in primary states, though Sanders was quick to point out that "a lot of the earlier states that were contested were in the Deep South, and that is, as you know, the most conservative part of America."
"We did not do well. We’re now moving elsewhere, we’re moving to the West, we’re moving to New York. We think we have a real shot to win," he reiterated.
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Read more: http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-...nie-sanders-new-york-win-221454#ixzz44baWwErV
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Cesare Borgia said:
This would require the far right to be truthful, which isn't the case. The reality is that they'll continue to deny and spin losses no matter what. If Cruz loses it'll be the fault of the liberal media and establishment republicans.

The GOP is not going to repent. They're stuck in an infinite loop: after November's disaster they will talk about the need to become more inclusive, moderate, etc. Yet by 2018 they'll be gearing up to win House seats with more right wing FUD. And in 2020 they'll trot out another candidate is either an extremist or a moderate who went so far right to win the nomination that he is DOA in a general election. The good news for them is that party fatigue, scandal, or economic downturn could sweep them into the WH. The bad news is that the longer they wait to evolve as a party, the worse they'll do under normal circumstances.
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Yup. After a certain point, cotinuing along this trajectory, demographics are going to start to override the normal political rules that we've operated under for the past two generations. Recession? Party fatigue? Those factors might not be enough to do the job for getting a GOP candidate to 269 in 2020. They're going to need Something Else to come along and disrupt things.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Cybit said:
I also still think I want Cruz over Trump as my GE candidate. The potential down-ticket benefits are being overstated (because we're in primary mode, not GE mode, kind of how like Bernie supporters are much more to claim they won't vote Clinton now than they will in October) IMO, and I'd rather take the much smaller possibility Cruz surprises us in the GE than Trump.
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Here's my problem, though: Cruz would easily be the worst president in decades.

All it takes is some scandal during the general election, health issues, rigged voting machines, etc., and Cruz is president. Hello, 4 new far-right SC judges (which I don't truly believe Trump will do). Hello, value-added tax and flat tax that sets lower- and middle-income Americans back to almost unconquerable deficits. Hello, uniting of church and state.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Ecotic said:
To be honest I'm still worried a contested convention could see Kasich or Paul Ryan nominated and Trump opts not to run third party. Today it looks very unlikely, but the convention is three and a half months away, maybe events transpire in that time to lead Republicans to finally realize the stakes and how neither Trump or Cruz can deliver Scalia's seat and the other seats to come.

I would rather have Trump win a majority outright than take any chances of that happening. I'm hoping a big win in New York and then the April 26th primaries can get his nomination back on track.
Click to expand...

Yeah. There is always the chance that the GOP, seeing Trump, actually does have their "oh shit, we have to do something systemic" moment, which moves them towards a much stronger party moving forward.

Cesare Borgia said:
This would require the far right to be truthful, which isn't the case. The reality is that they'll continue to deny and spin losses no matter what. If Cruz loses it'll be the fault of the liberal media and establishment republicans.

The GOP is not going to repent. They're stuck in an infinite loop: after November's disaster they will talk about the need to become more inclusive, moderate, etc. Yet by 2018 they'll be gearing up to win House seats with more right wing FUD. And in 2020 they'll trot out another candidate is either an extremist or a moderate who went so far right to win the nomination that he is DOA in a general election. The good news for them is that party fatigue, scandal, or economic downturn could sweep them into the WH. The bad news is that the longer they wait to evolve as a party, the worse they'll do under normal circumstances.
Click to expand...

Another reason I worry about Trump - Trump's a much better bet to break them out of the infinite loop (because they could change policies but no one has to admit they were wrong)

Basileus777 said:
I'm not sure that I agree that Trump has a greater chance of some shocking surprise victory, not with the way he is completely dead in the water with women. The votes just don't exist for him to make up for his glaring weaknesses. The "working white male voters giving Trump the rust belt" is a farcical scenario.
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Too focused on demographics this early in the game. All that stuff will tighten if the GOP actually comes together behind Trump, and they start turning on the Anti-Hillary guns.

Also, Cruz 2016 gives the Dems a better chance of a status quo GOP opponent in 2020 rather than Trump losing historically, and the GOP going hard left on immigration while sticking with social conservatism (and without the Tea Party as a force due to Cruz's loss); and having that general "we need to reshape our policies" moment.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
adam387 said:
You probably don't have an Aldi near you, but they import German chocolate. I think it's some of the same stuff they have at Trader Joe's. I get the 80% cacao and its on point. I also love dark chocolate and sea salt squares from Godiva. That bit of salt with the dark chocolate? Yaaaaassss
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Trader Joe's is amazing. I love their 1lb chocho bars. My one complain that they only have almonds in the milk chocolate version. boo.

I have some of their cowboy bark right now and shit is like crack. Trader Joe's is the best weekly market.


Chichikov said:
You Tolkien fans just can't believe it's possible to not like Lord of The Rings...

And I love The People vs OJ Simpsons, you all should be watching it.
Happy now?
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slow your roll! I've never even read any work of Tolkien. I enjoyed the LotR movies but they're not like anything super special to me.

But I do agree on People vs OJ which I've watched. Too bad it ends next week. It's really great seeing it all over again. I was in middle school in LA as it was happening. I actually remember the verdict being read over school intercom and everyone being worried about riots. What a time.

Basileus777 said:
From here.
Oh dear. The whole document is full of amazing material like this.
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This is likely biased polling, but if these numbers are even within 10% of being accurate, holy shit the election would be a bloodbath.


ivysaur12 said:
Would I need to change my registration to a Republican

Do I want to do this

Can I do this

Can I morally do this
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Unless the rules changed, we're an open primary and you choose your ballot. I'm thinking about voting Trump. Looking at the strategic aspect of it. But man oh man do I not want to vote for him. I'm assuming Bernie is doner than done then.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Cybit said:
Too focused on demographics this early in the game. All that stuff will tighten if the GOP actually comes together behind Trump, and they start turning on the Anti-Hillary guns.
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Not when these same demographics are already at play in the primary. Trump's problems with women are real and are not going to go away. And that alone makes him less likely than Cruz to ever pull off an upset.
Also, Cruz 2016 gives the Dems a better chance of a status quo GOP opponent in 2020 rather than Trump losing historically, and the GOP going hard left on immigration while sticking with social conservatism (and without the Tea Party as a force due to Cruz's loss); and having that general "we need to reshape our policies" moment.
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I'm not sure how this is a good thing unless you're rooting for the GOP to win in 2020. Trump 2016 and Cruz 2020 is a dream scenario for everyone else.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Cybit said:
Also, Cruz 2016 gives the Dems a better chance of a status quo GOP opponent in 2020 rather than Trump losing historically, and the GOP going hard left on immigration while sticking with social conservatism (and without the Tea Party as a force due to Cruz's loss); and having that general "we need to reshape our policies" moment.
Click to expand...

I think a Trump loss is more likely to lead to a Cruz nom in 2020 and another loss, then finally realignment.

I used to be on the Cruz over Trump bandwagon to start. But I believe Cruz would bring more help down ticket. He's still a conservative even if people hate him. I think Trump's campaign is going down in flames.

That said, I don't know how to think about this comparison anymore because Cruz being the nominee is likely through a contested convention where Trump has more delegates to start and would be a clusterfuck.

That alone changes the outcomes because the Trump supporters could stay home.

Like, I think we could argue back and forth given current circumstances whether they're better off with Trump or Cruz but at the end of the day they are picking between syphilis and gonorrhea and really, we don't have any way of knowing which is which!
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
Tom has already done the dirty deed so you guys have precedent. If he wins you all had a hand in it.
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I'm comfortable with this.

Trump's negatives are so very bad, I'd be incredibly shocked to see a turnaround. He's had months and months of ridiculous coverage to the point where a large portion of his negatives is likely well baked-in. If there's a terror attack or a sudden economic catastrophe (the only kind that can really happen at this late point in the game), I don't see the electorate suddenly changing their minds to go with such a (perceived) risky candidate.

That, and I don't think Cruz on the ballot opens the possibility of grabbing the House for 2 years. Trump might give us an outside chance, which would make his risk-reward calculation SOOOO worthwhile.

(Just buy some Lava soap for when you get home from your polling place. It helps.) =)
 
N

noshten

Member
B-Dubs said:
Yes, because ignoring African-American activists in your state is exactly the same as being blamed for a policy you literally had no say in. Totally the same thing.
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I'd agree with on your point B-Dubs, what I didn't agree with was the equating the higher percentage of African Americans and Asians incarcerated in VT as a blemish against his record which was the narrative some people tried to push. I didn't agree with Rosario just saw the clear double standard people choose to apply to anything regarding Sanders.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Basileus777 said:
Not when these same demographics are already at play in the primary. Trump's problems with women are real and are not going to go away. And that alone makes him less likely than Cruz to ever pull off an upset.

I'm not sure how this is a good thing unless you're rooting for the GOP to win in 2020. Trump 2016 and Cruz 2020 is a dream scenario for everyone else.
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My thing is I think Trump 2016 leads to a much more viable candidate in 2020, while as Cruz 2016 leads to like Bush 2020 and delays their re-orientation another 4 years.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Ce-mGYrWwAQQBtq.jpg


This on the heels of another god jobs report, wages actually starting to inch up. People are re-entering the Labor Force at a quick pace. That means people believe jobs are out there and people are hiring.

The trend line going into the election is becoming very favorable for the Dems right now.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Cybit said:
My thing is I think Trump 2016 leads to a much more viable candidate in 2020, while as Cruz 2016 leads to like Bush 2020 and delays their re-orientation another 4 years.
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I'm not so sure it does though. Trump isn't exactly the kind of guy who will just go away like Romney did. Plus you just know there's going to be morons who try and recreate what he's done. He's potentially pushed the GOP primary electorate even further right and even if they do get a more viable candidate in 2020, that person will still have had to get past Trump 1.5.
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
Seriously. I'm becoming too giddy. It feels live every indicator is pointing to Hillary walking back in to the White House with the wind at her back.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
E

eBay Huckster

Member
EskimoJoe said:
Seriously. I'm becoming too giddy. It feels live every indicator is pointing to Hillary walking back in to the White House with the wind at her back.
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don't get too cocky until it's september, the GOP has either stolen the nomination from Trump or has gone full hog with him, and the only hint of a recession is fully subsumed in calendar year 2017
 
U

User 463088

Banned
EskimoJoe said:
Seriously. I'm becoming too giddy. It feels live every indicator is pointing to Hillary walking back in to the White House with the wind at her back.
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I don't want to toot my own horn too early....but I feel like Queen has this. I'm still going to fucking kick ass and take names for her, but I feel damn good. Damn good.

So, my Berniebro and I took my dog to the dog park for a bit, and someone had a Bernie button on. Kyle was like "Nice button, did you vote for him?" She told us no because she forgot, but she read on Reddit there was going to be a re-vote in Ohio.

: smizing :
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
adam387 said:
I don't want to toot my own horn too early....but I feel like Queen has this. I'm still going to fucking kick ass and take names for her, but I feel damn good. Damn good.

So, my Berniebro and I took my dog to the dog park for a bit, and someone had a Bernie button on. Kyle was like "Nice button, did you vote for him?" She told us no because she forgot, but she read on Reddit there was going to be a re-vote in Ohio.

: smizing :
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How you guys did not go off on her I will never understand.
 
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