eBay Huckster
Member
you can lead a horse to water, but sometimes the water needs more variables
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
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you can lead a horse to water, but sometimes the water needs more variables
You can lead a horse to water, but you cannot make it think.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Actually, I think that's just a hell of a coincidence, it's a different tyler.
I'm actually mildly shocked that, after a year's worth of hilarious FiveThirtyEight "Party Decides" fetishizing in the face of, well, data... their polls plus forecast is actually doing slightly better than their polls only forecast! Good for Nate.
I'm talking about the "basing predictions off of Facebook likes" Tyler in the graph, not the Tyler who happened to do that graph. But by all means, let's ban that Tyler too and anybody else named Tyler.
I guess I'm still waiting for the inevitable shift that always tends to happen.
Here are the assumptions I'm making
1) Trump has already done one shift - from his pre-GOP primary policies to crazy right-wing nationalist demagogue. While my belief is starting to dwindle on this (the abortion comment, even if taken somewhat out of context, was a pretty legit eff-up. A couple of more of those and Trump will pretty much lose a lot of his base); I can't assume he can't pull this off. Or more appropriately, I'm pretty sure he has a much higher chance of shifting towards the middle that Ted Freaking Cruz does.
2) Clinton's unpopularity amongst typical GOP supporters, plus the Supreme Court factor, will get a lot of Republicans to hold their nose and vote for whoever their candidate is. Just as the Dems (Clinton especially) are pushing the "we gotta win this election because shit could go super down if we don't"; it seems odd to not account for that same dynamic potentially occurring on the GOP side, especially as we go through the GE. They HATE Clinton.
3) Trump's demos arguably may be at their worst for now and until the convention happens (further foot in mouth situations not happening) because of the GOP primary going on / disbelief that the GOP party could go down this route. Similarly, I would expect Clinton's "white male" percentage and "youth percentage" to go up once the Democratic primary is over, as part of that demographic who may see her unfavorable compared to Sanders will, once the primary is over, start supporting the candidate more ideologically inclined with them.
Basically, people are all fired up and angry and threatening to not vote for their party's candidate, but I think it'll be bullshit once it gets to the general election. I will absolutely admit that 2008 has distinctly colored my beliefs on this. So I could very much be reacting too far the opposite way (or think Republican voters threats to not vote for Trump are more idle then they actually are)
4) I think the media will be heavily invested in trying to at least have the perception of this race be that of a close one, even if it involves Trump. They have been turning on Trump recently, but I think that's because they see the growing chance Trump won't be the nominee. If he does become the nominee, I think $$ > morality, and the media will push whatever narratives they need to make it seem like a close race.
The biggest counters to my argument is that Trump's recent misstep is him regressing back to the mean (not the best term to use, but closest I can think of) of himself as a politician / person, and that the demographics are a more accurate indicator of what Trump's immediate foot-in-mouth issues are going to be moving forward. Alternatively, as I said earlier, my entire "GOP voters will fall in line after primaries" is heavily colored by 2008 - and I very well could be overcompensating for how much I think voters will fall in line behind their parties due to potential SCOTUS issues.
I also think the GOP is stuck on a downward path without a major shakeup, and I think Trump is more likely to cause that major shakeup (and have a dangerous GOP return in 2020) than Cruz. I think a Cruz shellacking leads to the expulsion of the Tea Party, and then a Jeb/Romney-ish terrible candidate in 2020, and THEN the GOP re-orients themselves after 2021. I worry Trump forces a re-orientation in 2017.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Considering the one Tyler I know in IRL. I'll agree with that.
Ban Tippicanoe and Tyler too
Every saturday I get stopped by Bernie people on the sidewalk asking me to sign up to their mailers on my way to the gym.
thezerofire
Banned
are you saying it would be a revolution?
User 463088
Banned
I want to know if this makes a difference. Because, I can't imagine brow beating people on Facebook is a good way to get support for your candidate. Some rando sends me a message I'ma be like WTF?
But I'm weird like that.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Wouldn't we be all getting ourselves banned on GAF?
That's a good point, considering the other Tyler who runs the place.
RustyNails
Member
All the Tylers I've known in life are massiave failures. People named Chip are even worse.
Tranqueris
Banned
Weren't they doing a ton of this before Ohio?
Social media stuff virtually never has any effect. Let's not forget the massive anti-Hillary hashtag movements and stuff going into South Carolina... of course, we're all low-information voters down here who just didn't see the truth of #WhichHillary and other dank memes.
Mrs. Manky
Banned
Ah ah ah. That's going to be Bill's job.
Cruz. Because Ted Cruz is Martin Sheen's character from The Dead Zone.
South Carolinians did know about #WhichHillary and they decided to go with the one that won the state by 50%.
User 463088
Banned
Is Twitter allowed in the old Confederacy? /s
FloydtheFathead
Member
User 463088
Banned
I FEEL VERY ATTACKED RN
Hmm... which Hillary? Emerson College poll Hillary or Clemson University poll Hillary? Guess we gotta go local.
User 463088
Banned
#iliewithivy
Ah, I see. Any data on how they've performed on the Republican side?
excelsiorlef
Member
Omfg. Anecdotal but omfg.
Macho Madness
Member
This is why people who agree with a lot of Sanders' policies laugh at his apparent strategy to accomplish them: https://twitter.com/People4Bernie/status/716001567401504768
holy shit
What the fuck? I swear.
Macho Madness
Member
I #StandWithRand
You what?
So you were H.A. Goodman all along!
User 463088
Banned
I once went on a date with a guy named Tyler.
He took me to Arby's because he had a "Two Can dine for $8.99" coupon. He gave me the last cheese stick though.
He also wanted me to wear a pearl necklace when we...you know. And I don't mean that in the sexual act. I mean a literal pearl necklace. We...we didn't see each other again.
He took me to Arby's because he had a "Two Can dine for $8.99" coupon. He gave me the last cheese stick though.
He also wanted me to wear a pearl necklace when we...you know. And I don't mean that in the sexual act. I mean a literal pearl necklace. We...we didn't see each other again.
Box of Kittens
Banned
FloydtheFathead
Member
Okay then..
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