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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
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eBay Huckster
Member
yeah there's gonna be a re-vote in ohio
it'll take place on november 8th and it'll feature hillary clinton and the GOP nominee
yeah, my "don't get cocky" post is basically "cruz could get the nomination and then the economy randomly flies off the rails"
it'll take place on november 8th and it'll feature hillary clinton and the GOP nominee
yeah, my "don't get cocky" post is basically "cruz could get the nomination and then the economy randomly flies off the rails"
All of you "trump might pull off a surprise victory!!!" People annoyed me so much a few weeks ago. Trump is toast. He does not have a shot. I'm not underestimating him or whatever nonsense Mika thinks. He's a truly awful, generationally bad candidate.
Cruz is not. That Cruz could get within a butthair of the presidency is really something liberals should be very afraid of.
Cruz is not. That Cruz could get within a butthair of the presidency is really something liberals should be very afraid of.
RustyNails
Member
Retromelon, is it too late to sign you up as Bobby Jindal delegate?
User 463088
Banned
The look on Kyle's face was priceless. He's like "I was never that bad." Which is true. He wasn't. But I literally laughed for a good five minutes.
There will be a re-vote everywhere Bernie didn't win until he wins.
are you trying to be a convention delegate in July ultimately?
User 463088
Banned
Macho Madness
Member
I agree but not because of politics.
Anoregon
The flight plan I just filed with the agency list me, my men, Dr. Pavel here. But only one of you!
A Cruz presidency is really something that literally all humans on earth should be very afraid of.
Macho Madness
Member
Krugman wags his finger at Bernie: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/04/01/feel-the-math/?_r=0
Black Mamba
Member
FTFY
Noooooo way
I'm afraid. Honestly. Be he's honestly terrible and Hillary is a good foil for him.
He's going to get mauled in the comments. NYT comments has turned into Reddit recently!
AntraxSuicide
Banned
Trump going is the best case for Dems. The way they've run their campaigns, Trump can't lose anything and come back, while Cruz can still play his "True Conservative(tm)" card in 2020. If you feel that both are beatable, then you run Trump now (shut down the Southern Strategy) and then you beat Cruz in 2020 (shut down the Tea Party). No one tied to either strategy can ever hope to run.
No way can they steal the election like that and expect good turnout in their favor. Zero chance. If they swipe the election like that, then they're basically self-destructing the GOP. Only winning strategy out of that is to blow up the party, and go hijack the Constitution Party.
This on the heels of another god jobs report, wages actually starting to inch up. People are re-entering the Labor Force at a quick pace. That means people believe jobs are out there and people are hiring.
The trend line going into the election is becoming very favorable for the Dems right now.
This is because the GOP took over Congress in 2014 /s
Aaron Strife
Banned
Yeah they would piss off about half the base by cheating Trump out of the nomination. Most would stay home or write in.
Heads they lose tails they lose.
Heads they lose tails they lose.
Butts-a-plenty
Banned
This on the heels of another god jobs report, wages actually starting to inch up. People are re-entering the Labor Force at a quick pace. That means people believe jobs are out there and people are hiring.
The trend line going into the election is becoming very favorable for the Dems right now.
That's a terribly named chart...
Spitting hot fire
Jack Remington
Banned
H.A. Goodman has to be the dumbest columnist in America. Dumber than Megan McArdle, dumber than Peggy Noonan, dumber than Deroy Murdock... this guy is dumber than a lobotomized stegosaurus.
It's baffling that this guy got a columnist job.
Third Strike
Member
If your scenario plays out, it really does make you wonder what the GOP will look like by 2024. Maybe they'll finally run someone who is a fiscal conservative, but moderate on social issues, and not to mention someone who isn't a racist or xenophobe.
SenorArdilla
Member
Who the hell cares what Greenpeace thinks? That question was loaded as hell.
Oh really? Like right there, in the park? :X
While we're having silly debates about exactly what form Gozer the Destructor should take, who is more likely to unleash the nukes? Cruz to fulfill the Prophecy, or Trump to show Megyn who she's messing with?
We are scared.
But there's a crapton of self-congratulating recency bias going on in the "Trump is SMOKE" "Yaaas Queen" celebration here. Trump screws up for a few weeks - and everyone forgets that he spent the previous...6 months, completely destroying a major political party. Hell; I hate that it's happening this early in the game - if this self-destruction stuff started happening in September, there's not as much of a chance of "humbled comeback" narrative that (if Trump gets the nomination at the convention) will start pushing.
Which, mind you, if Trump continues a somewhat downward slide in polls, but wins at the convention, is absolutely the narrative that is in play. Everyone in the media is going to root for a close race (its why Sanders is still in this) and will do what they can to make it so. The GOP primary process should have been enough evidence of that. But if Trump wins at the convention (and the national GOP holds their nose and unites as much as they can), the humbled, elder statesman comeback narrative will absolutely be in play.
User 463088
Banned
What I do in my spare time....
I literally had no idea that was what that meant. Hahahaha. I once had a patient where that happened to. She thought she was going blind because of it.
DSCC called me again. If they ask for any more money, I'm going to become a Republican.
Basileus777
Member
Trump isn't really sliding in the polls recently, he's been static and has never been a strong GE candidate. This isn't a case of recency bias. Most Presidential elections in modern history have been blowouts, the only closely contested ones in the past few decades have involved George Bush, races don't always tighten that much. There's no reason to expect that Trump is going to become a competitive candidate for November.
Wait, this is a totally false narrative.
People aren't arguing Trump is a bad general election candidate because of the last two weeks. We've been arguing he's a bad general election candidate for the past six months! Because the stuff's done to win the GOP primary is much much worse for him in the general than anything he's done to lose it in the last two weeks. That's why the GOP was avoiding doing that stuff in the first place!
The reality is that Trump has demonstrated no particular ability to pivot or to be politically effective. He's just demonstrated an understanding of what the GOP base really is, because he's part of the GOP base.
I know that you have suggested that Trump is a master politician, but I honestly don't think he is. He's just the reckoning for a disintegrating party. Nor, honestly, do I really expect the media to unite around propping him up. He's too toxic for that.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
I've learned any unknown number is always politicians asking for dough
Macho Madness
Member
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
What this really shows is that it's very difficult to actually hit the magic number in either party when your opponents don't drop out and run out of money. Even Clinton isn't going to cruise past the number despite it being a two man race the entire time and her strength. If Newt Gingrich and Santorum had been billionaires who didn't give a shit, they could have stayed in and kept Romney from getting the number too.
User 463088
Banned
Ya. I'm not used to people calling me, so it makes me feel special. When this person didn't even know how to say "Strickland" I was like "Gurl, no...please."
Self-employment taxes are a big mess. Ugh.
But Tyler tho....
Thank you for posting, interesting indeed
That's true, with Sanders having shown how to raise funds in the internet age I wonder if we'll see more primary seasons like this in future.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Just wait until Tyler adds a few more variables.
User 463088
Banned
Holy shit...
So, I mentioned a few months ago about one of our maintenance guys who was wearing a "Make America Great Again" hat and my mom making him take it off before he came in the house? Just had him come in to fix something, and he asked me about my Hillary shirt. Trump went too far for him, and he doesn't know what he's going to do in November.
If Trump is literally turning off white, males, NRA members who once actually shelled out cash for a "Make America Great Again" hat....he's totally fucked. Totally.
So, I mentioned a few months ago about one of our maintenance guys who was wearing a "Make America Great Again" hat and my mom making him take it off before he came in the house? Just had him come in to fix something, and he asked me about my Hillary shirt. Trump went too far for him, and he doesn't know what he's going to do in November.
If Trump is literally turning off white, males, NRA members who once actually shelled out cash for a "Make America Great Again" hat....he's totally fucked. Totally.
I don't understand why "538 taking the better of the two predictions" is a reasonable thing to benchmark. I have no way of knowing beforehand which prediction is better!
But this time around it does look like polls+ is the better forecast.
Did he mention what pushed him over the edge?
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Should have told him to get on a Frank Luntz panel ASAP.
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood 3m3 minutes ago North New Hyde Park, NY
RNC spox Sean Spicer: "I'm confident we're going to put on a fantastic convention and come out unified"
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood 11s12 seconds ago North New Hyde Park, NY
RNC spox Spicer: Dem convention controversy may supplant GOP's if Clinton gets indicted and "underground movement" gives Biden nomination
RNC spox Sean Spicer: "I'm confident we're going to put on a fantastic convention and come out unified"
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood 11s12 seconds ago North New Hyde Park, NY
RNC spox Spicer: Dem convention controversy may supplant GOP's if Clinton gets indicted and "underground movement" gives Biden nomination
Good write-up. Bernie needs to cut down on the rhetoric and put his money where his mouth is... down ticket races are so important.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Did he name (a) specific(s) thing that went too far?
Yeah I mean you can lead a horse to water but sometimes the horse lets bias influence his ability to read data.
User 463088
Banned
Shockingly, the abortion thing. He said he doesn't like abortion, but he doesn't want women who have one to go to prison. He said he probably won't vote for Hillary, but he knows he won't vote for Trump.
I talked to him about how Hillary supports unions and he acted like this was new information. He comes from a union family and was a former GM union worker. So, maybe he'll take a second look at Queen .
RUBIO MAKING A COMEBACK!
This is a fair point, actually. Sully can hang out with Chait and they can talk about how dumb minority college students are.
Not that I don't like them both in general they're just kind of stupid about race.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
In fairness, Trump's reddit page, twitter, and facebook are all still gaining followers so he's still doing something right. The day those numbers go backwards is the day I'll believe he's truly failing.
As many of you may recall, I was the one who correctly used those metrics to predict the McCain capture story was not going to bring him down.
As many of you may recall, I was the one who correctly used those metrics to predict the McCain capture story was not going to bring him down.
This seems questionable. I don't actually think people unfollow stuff the same way they follow stuff. I would anticipate those metrics to keep going up basically all the time forever.
Tyler has a last name? News to me.
Also, if someone mentions Tyler as a source ever again, I will get myself banned over it. I'm at my Tyler tipping point.
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