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[tbm24]

You know, for the last few weeks I've been kind of worried Bernie was doing serious harm to a Democrat winning the presidency, but after yesterday, I sort of calmed down on that. It feels pretty peaceful now, and it seems like Clinton supporters were just waiting for the smoke to clear away from Bernie before swooping in an making an attempt to return to sanity.

/r/Politics for example, I was pleasantly surprised to see comments like "SHILL" and "HILLARY IS JUST A REPUBLICAN" be downvoted and ignored, while just a few days ago such posts would get tons of support and anyone being critical of them would get downvoted to the point of absurdity.

I still would have largely preferred if he never took his rhetoric so far. Had a discussion this morning with a friend congratulating Clinton for the win but needing to throw in the comment that Real Progressives will need to wait until 2024. It's impressive how easy it is for people to by into the idea that she's not a progressive or liberal.

Had to end the conversation quick.

 

[VendettaRed07]

Just some last thoughts on the transcripts issue.

If Hillary is asked to release them, and she just says "Nah, don't want to", and the majority of voters go "Oh, ok whatever", then it probably isn't a good use of attack. You have to play to issues people care about. Bernie's base and a lot of other people (like me) absolutely want to see the transcript, but its also a waste of time and political capitol imo, to focus so heavily on something too many people are indifferent to.

 

[Captain Pants]

I was over on a subreddit I browse and found John Hodgman's endorsement for Hillary. I thought it was pretty concise and pretty well written without being antagonistic to Bernie folks.

 

[darkside31337]

That NY values thing pissed me off so much and not even because I'm in NY. You're running for president of the WHOLE COUNTRY, you don't just throw an entire state under the bus no matter how blue or red it is, you jackass.

Yep. By far the worst thing Bernie has done this campaign is try to pretend like people from the south don't count solely because they didn't vote for him. Get the fuck out of here with that shit.

 

[HylianTom]

I still would have largely preferred if he never took his rhetoric so far. Had a discussion this morning with a friend congratulating Clinton for the win but needing to throw in the comment that Real Progressives will need to wait until 2024. It's impressive how easy it is for people to by into the idea that she's not a progressive or liberal.

Had to end the conversation quick.

That always surprises me. In the period where they were in the Senate at the same time, Hillary was the 11th most liberal senator. For comparison, Obama was 23rd.

 

[plagiarize]

Just some last thoughts on the transcripts issue.

If Hillary is asked to release them, and she just says "Nah, don't want to", and the majority of voters go "Oh, ok whatever", then it probably isn't a good use of attack. You have to play to issues people care about. Bernie's base and a lot of other people (like me) absolutely want to see the transcript, but its also a waste of time and political capitol imo, to focus so heavily on something too many people are indifferent to.

Not releasing them isn't costing her the Primary. So why release them? She doesn't owe anything to the guy she's beating. It's clearly not an issue that's resonating with voters in the remaining primary states... so let him keep focusing on it.

If I was her, I'd release them to Sanders after he conceded. There's nothing in them I'm sure that Republicans could attack her with, but they might attack her over her refusal to release them. But there may be stuff that a 'Democrat' like Sanders could attack her over.

If people were talking about them and openly speculating about them, you kill the vacuum with the truth... but no one is. So you just keep ignoring it until Sanders goes away.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Qunnipiac CT

Trump 48
Kasich 28
Cruz 19

Hillary 52
Bernie 41

 

[studyguy]

Well time to see what Bernie does.
If he continues to just attack after getting smashed next Tuesday then I don't know what to think anymore. At this point he's irrelevant despite his supporters saying he's going to keep 'pushing the issues.' By the way this week went, I assume pushing the issues means just giving GOP more ammo on which to run with during the general, but w/e.

We'll see. They threw everything they had before NYC and the kitchen sink (filled with hot sauce) but nothing stuck. Just let it go, if you want to stump, then stump. No need to be a jackass.

 

[Anoregon]

Cruz bashing New York values has to be one of the dumbest moves in recent campaign politics.

Trump's invoking of 9/11 during a debate as a rebuttal to that, and actually seeing Ted Cruz applaud his own bitchslapping (because he couldn't not applaud praise of 9/11 emergency workers) is one of my favorite moments of this cycle.

 

[Chezzymann]

What would be better for democrats, trump getting the nomination and then the republicans going crazy about it, or trump baaaareelly falling short of 1237 (I'm talking like, 1200) and then being denied the nomination?

I'm actually worried that as time goes on republicans would eventually embrace the crazy train that is trump and unite around him if he gets the nom.

Qunnipiac CT

Trump 48
Kasich 28
Cruz 19

Hillary 52
Bernie 41

Cmoooon trump get to 50%

 

[Captain Pants]

What would be better for democrats, trump getting the nomination and then the republicans going crazy about it, or trump baaaareelly falling short of 1237 (I'm talking like, 1200) and then being denied the nomination?

I'm actually worried that as time goes on republicans would eventually embrace the crazy train that is trump and unite around him if he gets the nom.



Cmoooon trump get to 50%

I think him falling just short and getting denied would be the best bet. They aren't going to nominate someone that the whole party can get behind, and considering Trump is polling at about 50% within the party, that's a lot of pissed off voters that will either stay home or write him in, or in a total creamdream scenario, he runs third party. That's one dumb guy's opinion anyway.

 

[HylianTom]

What would be better for democrats, trump getting the nomination and then the republicans going crazy about it, or trump baaaareelly falling short of 1237 (I'm talking like, 1200) and then being denied the nomination?

I'm actually worried that as time goes on republicans would eventually embrace the crazy train that is trump and unite around him if he gets the nom.

Cmoooon trump get to 50%

I used to think it'd be ideal if he fell juuuust shy of 1237, but now I want him to get it on the first ballot. I don't want to risk him losing a subsequent ballot; he's as close to a G.E. sure thing as we can get. We'd be giggling our way through the campaign season as Republicans fight to keep states like Mississippi in their column.

 

[studyguy]

What would be better for democrats, trump getting the nomination and then the republicans going crazy about it, or trump baaaareelly falling short of 1237 (I'm talking like, 1200) and then being denied the nomination?

Both of those situations bode well for Dems since they in essence split the party no matter what. The problem with the second scenario is it's leads to who getting the nomination instead and the question of what the republicans do to thrust their new candidate into the national spotlight.

Trump is basically sunk even if republicans finally shut their mouths and fall in lockstep behind him. His unfavorability ratings across the board are the stuff of comedy.

 

[Macho Madness]

Just some last thoughts on the transcripts issue.

If Hillary is asked to release them, and she just says "Nah, don't want to", and the majority of voters go "Oh, ok whatever", then it probably isn't a good use of attack. You have to play to issues people care about. Bernie's base and a lot of other people (like me) absolutely want to see the transcript, but its also a waste of time and political capitol imo, to focus so heavily on something too many people are indifferent to.

 

[Bowdz]

What would be better for democrats, trump getting the nomination and then the republicans going crazy about it, or trump baaaareelly falling short of 1237 (I'm talking like, 1200) and then being denied the nomination?

I'm actually worried that as time goes on republicans would eventually embrace the crazy train that is trump and unite around him if he gets the nom.



Cmoooon trump get to 50%

Trump being the nominee is the best, don't let anyone tell you otherwise. We can tie every Republican to him in addition to the GOP platform and screw a generation of GOP politicians with hispanic voters and minorities. He makes the Senate races in AZ, NC, MS, GA, MO, IA, and possibly the States themselves competitive in the GE. He solves Hillary's biggest weakness, her high unfavorables, by helping drive dem turnout in November. Finally, he splits the GOP establishment with base and fractures the party for years.

Yes, splitting an angry base with the establishment in a contested convention would depress turnout in November, but Trump provides a wholesale destruction of the GOP.

 

[plagiarize]

I just saw this posted by a friend on facebook:

Obama only had 920 delegates at this point in the race and he lost NY to $Shill by 20 points. Bernie has 1105 delegates and he lost by 15%. Obama went on to beat Hillary and so can we. Plus there are lawsuits and audits everywhere so Bernie may close that gap even more. Now we start phone banking the next group of states. There are more delegates with that group than in NY.

My mind hurts so much.

The funny part, is that it was attached to a picture of Bernie that had 'Bernie isn't going anywhere' written on it.

Well that bit's right. He's not going anywhere. He's going to keep on living in Vermont.

 

[Hindl]

I just saw this posted by a friend on facebook:



My mind hurts so much.

The funny part, is that it was attached to a picture of Bernie that had 'Bernie isn't going anywhere' written on it.

Well that bit's right. He's not going anywhere. He's going to keep on living in Vermont.

Just wait till next week. If Hillary sweeps it'll be real hard to find any way to close the gap. Hopefully everyone has the epiphany then. Although it will be interesting seeing the spin from the last few holdouts

 

[plagiarize]

Just wait till next week. If Hillary sweeps it'll be real hard to find any way to close the gap. Hopefully everyone has the epiphany then. Although it will be interesting seeing the spin from the last few holdouts

Anyone who still believes stuff like I quoted isn't going to give up thinking Sanders can win unless Clinton reaches a full majority with just pledged delegates, which I don't think she's likely to. At this point, if you still think he's got a good chance... rather than a really improbable one... you're a maniac.

 

[studyguy]

Dude already put in to return to Independent status for Vermont's senate. The democrat hat seems to be a poor fit for the man anyway.

 

[Brinbe]

Those unbound delegates in PA are what'll save Trump in the end. Steve Kornacki broke it down yesterday,
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi...se_unbound_pa_delegates_to_put_over_1237.html

There are 54 unbound delegates in Pennsylvania. Right now, the majority of candidates running to be unbound delegates in Pennsylvania are saying publicly on the record they will go with whatever candidate wins their state. Donald Trump is leading Pennsylvania by more than 20 points right now. He could easily get the lion's share of those and that could put him over 1237,

 

[Armaros]

Just wait till next week. If Hillary sweeps it'll be real hard to find any way to close the gap. Hopefully everyone has the epiphany then. Although it will be interesting seeing the spin from the last few holdouts

538 shows that for Bernie to be 'on track' he needs to lose MD by just 7 points.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAGHA.

A state is that is 30% black with blacks making up easily 40%+ of the democratic vote on MD.

Home to the federal government and its contractors and the richest state (also richest AA county) in the country. In other words, Its THE Establishment State.

Bernie is currently down 20-25% or more in the polls for MD. And they vote very soon. And it's closed.

 

[Chezzymann]

Those unbound delegates in PA are what'll save Trump in the end.

Is his ground game better there? Would Cruz stealing them be really unlikely?

 

[Iolo]

One thing that's changed for Bernie in the delegate forecasts is that previously, he was way over-performing his benchmarks in the caucus states, so he was picking up at least some delegates he lost elsewhere. But now, the only remaining path has him winning in blowouts in states favorable to him, so there's no longer any room to underperform in any states.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Maryland is the richest state?

Huh, TIL. Would have thought it'd be Texas or California.

 

[PBY]

Those unbound delegates in PA are what'll save Trump in the end. Steve Kornacki broke it down yesterday,
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi...se_unbound_pa_delegates_to_put_over_1237.html

Trump better wine and dine the fuck out of these

 

[Macho Madness]

At this point in 2008....

There are two ways Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) can win the Democratic nomination.

Most of the national press and pundits say she has to win by 20 percent or more in Pennsylvania's Primary on Tuesday and keep beating Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) by that margin to get enough delegates to become the nominee.

Or there is another scenario that has not been on the political radar but was raised by several well-connected supporters at her rally in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania on Sunday: she could go into a deadlocked convention and persuade just enough Obama delegates to switch and vote for her.

As for how many delegates Obama had at this point in 2008...

Before Tuesday's vote, Obama was leading Clinton by 139 delegates. Obama has 1,647 delegates while Clinton has 1,508 delegates

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

Bernie is currently down 20-25% or more in the polls for MD. And they vote very soon. And it's closed.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAGHA., lets limit the amount of people that can vote.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

Those unbound delegates in PA are what'll save Trump in the end. Steve Kornacki broke it down yesterday,
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi...se_unbound_pa_delegates_to_put_over_1237.html

Yeah. It seems like, in a primary where most races are predictable but the overall outcome isn't yet, the two big variables clouding it are Pennsylvania, because of their unusual delegate rules, and Indiana, due to its laws against certain types of polling.

 

[BotoxAgent]

I just saw this posted by a friend on facebook:



My mind hurts so much.

The funny part, is that it was attached to a picture of Bernie that had 'Bernie isn't going anywhere' written on it.

Well that bit's right. He's not going anywhere. He's going to keep on living in Vermont.

wasnt NY during Super Tuesday? And later end up winning the South?

 

[bodyofanamerican]

So, is Weaver off the reservation here, or is the Bernie campaign seriously going to try and lobby Supers at the convention?

 

[Armaros]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAGHA., lets limit the amount of people that can vote.

The cutoff for MD registration or to change party was 5th of April.

Are you going to try to cry voter suppression in MD too?

Or did you type that without even looking the up MD deadlines?

Why should independents get to pick the democratic candidate if they can't even switch party 3 week ahead of time.

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

RNC has choice but to let Trump be the nom. And trickery would just lead to the party being factured because there is no establishment person on that side that could be an instant hit with everyone. Trump and Cruz together prove that about 60-70% of the party is bat shit crazy. A Paul Ryan type person is a minority to what the party as a whole wants.

The cutoff for MD registration or to change party was 5th of April.

Are you going to try to cry voter suppression in MD too?

I haven't cried voter suppression at all during this cycle. I was just taking note that its crazy how you would be giddy about it.

 

[eBay Huckster]

i'm giddy that some state democratic parties do exactly what every other western democracy's parties do w/ their pre-general-election voting processes

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

The population in general are uninformed and unaware of most things to do with the election process. What, 50% will actually vote in the GE? of that 50%, how many actually vote in primaries? I have no idea. I don't know much about GOTV projects, but the Sanders campaign should have tried more with it.

 

[Armaros]

i'm giddy that some state democratic parties do exactly what every other western democracy's parties do w/ their pre-general-election voting processes

Most western democracies just have the poltical parties pick their leaders to run in the GE completely internally with almost no public vote.

 

[teiresias]

So, is Weaver off the reservation here, or is the Bernie campaign seriously going to try and lobby Supers at the convention?

The article seems based on Weaver's appearance on MSNBC last night, which I believe was prior to the more tempered talk about seeing what happens next week. However, CNN is currently running with the "try to convince super delegates through July" story too, so I'm unsure if the campaign has said anything today ramping the rhetoric on the super delegate "path" back up or not.

 

[Veritigo_X]

Dude already put in to return to Independent status for Vermont's senate. The democrat hat seems to be a poor fit for the man anyway.

Did he? When he first announced he was running he said he would run as a Democrat in future elections.

 

[Box of Kittens]

That NY values thing pissed me off so much and not even because I'm in NY. You're running for president of the WHOLE COUNTRY, you don't just throw an entire state under the bus no matter how blue or red it is, you jackass.

Makes me think of this ad.

 

[teiresias]

I haven't cried voter suppression at all during this cycle. I was just taking note that its crazy how you would be giddy about it.

Giddy is perhaps the wrong word, but I see no reason to decry if a party wants to restrict voting to its own registered voters in its own primary. Depending on the state doing so I'd absolutely critical to protecting the nomination process.

 

[Armaros]

RNC has choice but to let Trump be the nom. And trickery would just lead to the party being factured because there is no establishment person on that side that could be an instant hit with everyone. Trump and Cruz together prove that about 60-70% of the party is bat shit crazy. A Paul Ryan type person is a minority to what the party as a whole wants.




I haven't cried voter suppression at all during this cycle. I was just taking note that its crazy how you would be giddy about it.

To note, my 'giddiness' was at the idea that Bernie could make up more then a 20% deficit in such a short time with MD demographics in order to be 'on track' as 538 calls it.

Which was why my post included information about demographics and why that would be a hard thing to do, which you conveniently did not quote.

 

[ApharmdX]

Maryland is the richest state?

Huh, TIL. Would have thought it'd be Texas or California.

Maryland is one of the major technology hubs, perhaps the second-largest, and we have lots of high-paying federal jobs and contractor jobs.

 

[studyguy]

Did he? When he first announced he was running he said he would run as a Democrat in future elections.

http://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/344/201510160200258344/201510160200258344.pdf

Yeah, 2018 registered as Independent for senate.
Dude isn't a dem, no one should be surprised.

 

[Crocodile]

Does anyone have a list of Closed Primaries? Because New York wasn't the first but I've never heard so much complaining until now. I don't disagree that the party-switch deadline is obnoxiously early but the results of last night did remind me why New York is closed at least (aside from "the party should pick its candidates" logic which is sound).

Spoiler

It's to protect the interest of GOP voters

 

[Farmboy]

Trump being the nominee is the best, don't let anyone tell you otherwise. We can tie every Republican to him in addition to the GOP platform and screw a generation of GOP politicians with hispanic voters and minorities. He makes the Senate races in AZ, NC, MS, GA, MO, IA, and possibly the States themselves competitive in the GE. He solves Hillary's biggest weakness, her high unfavorables, by helping drive dem turnout in November. Finally, he splits the GOP establishment with base and fractures the party for years.

Yes, splitting an angry base with the establishment in a contested convention would depress turnout in November, but Trump provides a wholesale destruction of the GOP.

I agree. And the very best scenario would be:

- Trump falls just short of 1,237 (this seems likely at this point), say he gets to 1,150 - 1,200

- Uncertainty abides all the way to Cleveland. People choose sides. Some unexpected names pop up in the Trump camp. Ditto for Cruz. Maybe someone floats Ryan or Romney again. Things get even nastier than they are now.

- Trump wins on the first ballot anyway.

So we have the worst nominee coupled to a terrible convention and the uncertainty of unity. 400+ EV landslide for Hillary, house may be in play.

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

Giddy is perhaps the wrong word, but I see no reason to decry if a party wants to restrict voting to its own registered voters in its own primary. Depending on the state doing so I'd absolutely critical to protecting the nomination process.

This is why I havent complained much because in the end, Sanders chose to join try and be the Dem nom. Once he did that, he had to buy into all the rules and had a year to get ready for it.

To me, there are two sides of this whole "voter suppression" angle. At the heart of it, the sanders side is giving what has occurred the wrong name. I don't beleive there was any internal rigging. The main issues is the process and they should try to better it in the future, if anything, for the general election. Places like in Arizona where we got a preview of how shitty the system is going to be this November. It isn't some joke to make fun of a candidate about.

To note, my 'giddiness' was at the idea that Bernie could make up more then a 20% deficit in such a short time with MD demographics in order to be 'on track' as 538 calls it.

Which was why my post included information about demographics and why that would be a hard thing to do, which you conveniently did not quote.

Yes, his inability to make the difference due to not having independents being able to vote should make you happy. Even if it was an open one, I'm sure he would lose by at least 5% anyway.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

I posted this in the primary thread as well. What's really bad for Sanders is less about the 29ish delegates that Hillary will net over him, and more about the 249 delegates that he can't fight over. There are only 3 states left with 100+ delegates, and that's terrible for someone who's down over 200 delegates to begin with.

Maryland is the richest state?

Huh, TIL. Would have thought it'd be Texas or California.

Nah son, MD is rich as fuck. Boats and waterfront property everywhere. My wife's from SMC, and it was crazy hearing (as a Mississippian, so the poorest state in the Union) some of the casual conversation there. My sister-in-law's boyfriend off-handedly talking about taking the boat out on the bay, the high schools all have sailing teams, people talking about $60K a year as a "struggle" to live on. I legit felt culture shock.

 

[Baraka in the White House]

So Cruz is effectively done, yes?

Because if so I have just GOT to tune into talk radio today. There's been something of a civil war there between Trump and Cruz supporters.

 

[Armaros]

Maryland is one of the major technology hubs, perhaps the second-largest, and we have lots of high-paying federal jobs and contractor jobs.

Maryland has big bio-tech, defense contractors, and other business that work directly with the government.

To note Bethesda Studios is HQed in Rockville MD. Like 30 mins from me.

The average median income in MD was 76K in 2014. Cali? 60K.

MD is also pretty expensive overall. Housing prices are pretty crazy here.

 

[Fenderputty]

So Cruz is effectively done, yes?

Because if so I have just GOT to tune into talk radio today. There's been something of a civil war there between Trump and Cruz supporters.

He's almost always been "done" if he's trying to win this thing outright. He's still not done in that a brokered convention is still very possible.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

I agree. And the very best scenario would be:

- Drumpf falls just short of 1,237 (this seems likely at this point), say he gets to 1,150 - 1,200

- Uncertainty abides all the way to Cleveland. People choose sides. Some unexpected names pop up in the Drumpf camp. Ditto for Cruz. Maybe someone floats Ryan or Romney again. Things get even nastier than they are now.

- Drumpf wins on the first ballot anyway.

So we have the worst nominee coupled to a terrible convention and the uncertainty of unity. 400+ EV landslide for Hillary, house may be in play.

I agree with this. Trump is the best (worst) candidate for the Dems, but if he hits 1237, then they'll have a month to get their voters to stomach him. If he's just shy of it, they'll still be talking about stealing the nomination, and that'll give them one less month to ease their voters into the decision.

So Cruz is effectively done, yes?

Because if so I have just GOT to tune into talk radio today. There's been something of a civil war there between Drumpf and Cruz supporters.

Yeah, I think it's now impossible for Cruz to hit 1237. He joins Kasich in the "openly running on a brokered convention" ticket.