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[Suikoguy]

If I recall Obama lost SC by about 10% last time(about 200k votes).If the third party candidate and Trump spilt enough votes it's very possible the democrats can take that state.

You are right, I took 538's demographic calc and moved 10% of the College Educated White Voters away from Rep (56% D) and 5% of Non-College Educated White (57% R) people away from Reps. Assuming same turnout and no other movement.

I got this:

Some hilarious battleground states.

 

[ampere]

It's so Huelenical

I'm not sure I believe it until they actually reveal this mystery candidate

 

[NeoXChaos]

Only way a future Louisiana goes blue with the obama coalition is if our rural counties lose population and New Orleans expands its population by a couple hundred thousand enough to outvote the rest of the state

 

[shem935]

They will probably just endorse someone meaningless.

 

[Suikoguy]

They will probably just endorse someone meaningless.

Honestly, that's likely. Given the deadlines and whatnot.
One of the 3rd party candidates?

 

[benjipwns]

If Bernie concedes than there's no legal uncertainty of her being the nominee and she can use the funds

Someone might want to inform the FEC about this.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Honestly, that's likely. Given the deadlines and whatnot.
One of the 3rd party candidates?

"Bill Kristol endorses Jill Stein: Says her policies of shutting down of all nuclear power plant and ending mandatory vaccinations will make Iraq failure look better."

 

[Iolo]

It's so Huelenical

I'm not sure I believe it until they actually reveal this mystery candidate

Plot twist: it's Bernie

 

[excelsiorlef]

Canova's website is fun

Far more serious than recreational marijuana use is the rise of illegal pill mills, the over-prescription of opioids, the enormous increase in heroin abuse, and the epidemic of flakka, synthetic crystals and bath salts imported from China, which has turned many users into paranoid and often violent zombies with superhuman strength and off-the-charts near-death vital signs. In the first year since the flakka epidemic began in Broward County, 60 people have died as a result, with hospitals getting dozens of overdosed patients a day, and on some nights, half the calls to police are flakka-related emergencies. Likewise, opioid use has resulted in an alarming rise in overdose deaths around the country, including in more affluent areas, and particularly in South Florida. These are the type of drugs on which we should be focusing our law enforcement and public health efforts.

He also hates China

When a decade later, the U.S. entered into permanent normal trade relations with the People’s Republic of China, a communist dictatorship with no independent trade union movement, no political freedoms, and far lower wage rates, labor standards, and environmental protections.


As a law professor, scholar and activist, I opposed these types of trade policies, including NAFTA, permanent normal trade relations with China, and China’s membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Good luck with this one bucko. I wonder what he means, like free ad space? I'm for publicly funded elections but how do you get free ad space on cable TV out of that lol.

Candidates for federal elections should be given free TV and cable airtime. After all, the public owns the airwaves, and TV and cable companies have benefitted from billions of dollars in public subsidies.

He seems to hate the Fed, I dunno, not an expert on this

Another source of our growing income and wealth inequality is related to the Federal Reserve and monetary policy. Since the 2008 financial collapse, the central bank has purchased several trillion dollars in assets from the largest Wall Street financial institutions, while making tens of trillions of dollars in near zero-interest loans to these big banks. Meanwhile, millions of ordinary Americans were wiped out by the crash, they lost their homes to foreclosure, they lost their jobs, and they lost their life savings - and yet the Fed has done virtually nothing to help them. This is totally inexcusable.



In the 1930s and 1940s, the Federal Reserve provided loans directly to “Main Street” small- and medium-sized businesses, and the Reconstruction Finance Corporation (RFC) – essentially a federal infrastructure bank – provided billions of dollars in grants and loans to rebuild the economy. But since 2008, the Federal Reserve has provide no assistance to Main Street and we’re still waiting for a federal infrastructure bank – something that’s been promised in presidential election campaigns in 1992 and 2008 and that many economic powerhouses with modern infrastructures, like Germany, Japan, and China, have had for years.

But I thought China was a

a communist dictatorship with no independent trade union movement, no political freedoms, and far lower wage rates, labor standards, and environmental protections.

Conveniently he's left off anything on his site about his ideas on immigration

And he wants Sanders to Cruz into California

And he's a disingenuous

Rove’s conservative super-PAC, American Crossroads, offered its “endorsement” of embattled Democratic National Committee Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz in her competitive House re-election bid.

“Debbie Wasserman Schultz has played a critical role over the past several years in the massive Republican gains we have achieved at the state level, in the U.S. House of Representatives, and in the U.S. Senate,” said Steven Law, president of American Crossroads, in a faux-statement of support. “Wasserman Schultz’s leadership has also been a catalyst for the emerging civil war in the Democratic Party this year, ensuring that their nominating process will drag on far longer than that of Republicans.”

Apparently sensing the opportunity to stir up a bit of trouble within the Democratic ranks, The Tea Party Express followed Rove’s trollish way and released its own endorsement of the Democratic congresswoman, crediting the moderate with aiding the rise of the right-wing movement.

“While both Wasserman Schultz and Canova share extreme liberal views that are damaging to American prosperity, the scales tip for us to endorse Wasserman Schultz because conservatives and the Tea Party have thrived during her tenure as DNC Chairman,” said Tea Party Express Executive Director, Taylor Budowich.

“Wasserman Schultz has also been guilty of outrageous statements regarding Karl Rove, including falsely blaming him for everything from the formation of the Tea Party to global warming,” Budowich continued.

“We might as well feed her bogus conspiracy theories by joining Rove in endorsing Wasserman Schultz. We wish her the best of luck in keeping her seat and her position as DNC Chairwoman.”

He's touting troll endorsements as if they were real.

Apparently he also likes to go to events and get right up to her and demand she debate him.

https://twitter.com/Tim_Canova/status/719554779509342208

Oh here's his immigration stance from an AMA on reddit

I am not in favor of open borders. I think we need secure borders. But I also think we need to address the "push" causes of migration, such as the failed states south of our border, many have failed because of US support for corrupt oligarchies and coups that brings enormous harm to large populations.

Interesting....


Interesting guy, has next to no internet footprint prior to jumping into this race, so he's a literal unknown getting shoved to the forefront because Sanders doesn't like DWS.

 

[ampere]

Honestly, that's likely. Given the deadlines and whatnot.
One of the 3rd party candidates?

They could still piggyback on another established third party, though I am not sure which of those parties, if any, meet the criteria to appear on a ballot or be write-in eligible

 

[VendettaRed07]

A well known republican making a third party run would make the electoral victory a lot more than it would be in any other situation.

But it would save down ticket Republicans. Which is why I don't want it to happen.

Don't give house Republicans an outlet to save face. Force them into a position that would make them endorse Trump or turn on there base. Trump alone is the best scenario.

 

[Holmes]

The Tea Party Express endorsing DWS. I'm screaming.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

A well known republican making a third party run would make the electoral victory a lot more than it would be in any other situation.

But it would save down ticket Republicans. Which is why I don't want it to happen.

Don't give house Republicans an outlet to save face. Force them into a position that would make them endorse Trump or turn on there base. Trump alone is the best scenario.

I mean, if you're a ridiculously panicky Dem that thinks Trump has a good chance of winning (>10%) and you think Trump will lead to the end of the human race due to nuclear war, then Rmoney is attractive in the race.

 

[benjipwns]

They could still piggyback on another established third party, though I am not sure which of those parties, if any, meet the criteria to appear on a ballot or be write-in eligible

Not unless Bill Kristol, neoconservative god-king, intends on endorsing the Libertarian or Green foreign policy.

Interesting guy, has next to no internet footprint prior to jumping into this race, so he's a literal unknown getting shoved to the forefront because Sanders doesn't like DWS.

That doesn't really mean much. Most primary challengers are relative unknowns.

 

[excelsiorlef]

Plot twist: it's Bernie

I worked hard on that glad to use it again.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

How could Romney possibly run third party? We'd have heard by now if that was happening, you can't exactly get tens of thousands of signatures in several states without someone spilling the beans

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

How could Romney possibly run third party? We'd have heard by now if that was happening, you can't exactly get tens of thousands of signatures in several states without someone spilling the beans

Secret binders full of signatures?

 

[excelsiorlef]

A well known republican making a third party run would make the electoral victory a lot more than it would be in any other situation.

But it would save down ticket Republicans. Which is why I don't want it to happen.

Don't give house Republicans an outlet to save face. Force them into a position that would make them endorse Trump or turn on there base. Trump alone is the best scenario.

The party has coalesced more or less around Trump already, so the down ticket is probably already pretty safe though, well as safe as it can be.

The Tea Party Express endorsing DWS. I'm screaming.

It's funny how Canova plays right into their game and does it with a smile.


Ah well

 

[shem935]

How could Romney possibly run third party? We'd have heard by now if that was happening, you can't exactly get tens of thousands of signatures in several states without someone spilling the beans

Wasn't it theorized a while back that some third party candidate could team up with another lesser known party that is already on ballots in key states?

 

[Holmes]

Wasn't it theorized a while back that some third party candidate could team up with another lesser known party that is already on ballots in key states?

Yeah, but the Constitution and Libertarian parties already have their candidates.

 

[User 463088]

How could Romney possibly run third party? We'd have heard by now if that was happening, you can't exactly get tens of thousands of signatures in several states without someone spilling the beans

The only state with a deadline that has passed is Texas. North Carolina is on the 9th of June. Then Illinois which is on the 27th of June. An announcement would need to come like this week, and then get enough paid staffers to get those signatures.

 

[Maengun1]

Oh dear god @ Canova actually tweeting #reddit

:screams:

 

[AntraxSuicide]

I'll respond to this tomorrow, it's past 1 AM here and this deserves a longer post.

Night all.

Night!

Nope, I don't think they can get on the ballot in TX.
Also, SC is not happening. But some of those others will be in play.

I could drive through all blue states to visit my brother

Is there some un-named party that's been getting themselves on the ballot in all 50 states?

Also, I guess the fact that Trump isn't laughing off this story and saying he'll still win NY etc. etc. with an independent shows he's got a smidgen of sense in him.

They could still piggyback on another established third party, though I am not sure which of those parties, if any, meet the criteria to appear on a ballot or be write-in eligible

Yeah, but the Constitution and Libertarian parties already have their candidates.

I'm fairly certain that a low-tier party like Constitution would probably just ask their nominee to step aside. Certainly, they could be persuaded to do so with enough favors. Do that, hijack their party's nomination (and ballot access), and throw a wrench in Trump's coalition (if you can call it that).

Basically, I think a few people would be #NeverTrump if they had an option that wasn't a Democrat. Give them one.

 

[benjipwns]

I'm fairly certain that a low-tier party like Constitution would probably just ask their nominee to step aside.

lol good luck

Certainly, they could be persuaded to do so with enough favors.

Which Bill Kristol has access to how many of?

 

[itschris]

Hillary after she clinches the nomination with New Jersey before the polls are even closed in California:

Spoiler

Alternatively, if we're in the dark timeline, Donald Trump when he becomes President of the United States.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

lol good luck


Which Bill Kristol has access to how many of?

Anyone can be bribed with enough money/prostitutes/coke/etc... I'm sure Kristol's done the research and knows what Castle would give in for. Maybe Milky Ways or something.

Edit: And their MS chapter is based out of Guntown? Not even fucking Tupelo?

 

[DrForester]

How could Romney possibly run third party? We'd have heard by now if that was happening, you can't exactly get tens of thousands of signatures in several states without someone spilling the beans

I'm a bit confused on the whole thing about needing signatures to get on the ballot this early. What do the Democrats and Republicans do? They don't have official nominees yet.

 

[B-Dubs]

I'm a bit confused on the whole thing about needing signatures to get on the ballot this early. What do the Democrats and Republicans do? They don't have official nominees yet.

Unless he groups up with an established party he would be running as a straight independent with no affiliation, which is an entirely different beast.

 

[excelsiorlef]

I'm a bit confused on the whole thing about needing signatures to get on the ballot this early. What do the Democrats and Republicans do? They don't have official nominees yet.

Parties are registered.

 

[ampere]

I'm a bit confused on the whole thing about needing signatures to get on the ballot this early. What do the Democrats and Republicans do? They don't have official nominees yet.

All 50 states recognize the Democrat and Republican parties, so they have already established ballot access. If you are a small party you have to get signatures to get on a ballot in a state.

 

[benjipwns]

I'm a bit confused on the whole thing about needing signatures to get on the ballot this early. What do the Democrats and Republicans do? They don't have official nominees yet.

They have automatic ballot status by law.

It's part of how they dissuade outsiders from running against The Party.

Anyone can be bribed with enough money/prostitutes/coke/etc... I'm sure Kristol's done the research and knows what Castle would give in for. Maybe Milky Ways or something.

Edit: And their MS chapter is based out of Guntown? Not even fucking Tupelo?

You don't have to bribe Castle, you have to bribe the Constitution Party apparatus to roll over for a pro-amnesty, god-hating lieberal.

Why risk jail time when you can just endorse Hillary when your independent announcement fails to go anywhere?

 

[Lord_Byron28]

A well known republican making a third party run would make the electoral victory a lot more than it would be in any other situation.

But it would save down ticket Republicans. Which is why I don't want it to happen.

Don't give house Republicans an outlet to save face. Force them into a position that would make them endorse Trump or turn on there base. Trump alone is the best scenario.

Agreed. I hope HRC and the Democratic party makes sure to tether the Republican party and Trump's policies together so people understand what the republican party stands for.

I mean, if you're a ridiculously panicky Dem that thinks Trump has a good chance of winning (>10%) and you think Trump will lead to the end of the human race due to nuclear war, then Rmoney is attractive in the race.

The only way I could see a 3rd party helping Republicans is if they found a candidate that would split the vote among liberals while the party rallies around Trump. Maybe secretly funding a Ron Paul/Bernie Sanders-esque candidate that is a little too out there with some plans to ever win the GE but enough to rally a crowd around them and split the vote among liberals. A Libertarian could do the trick but then again it could backfire and take more votes away from conservatives as well.

 

[benjipwns]

A Libertarian could do the trick

ha, good one

 

[Teggy]

It will be fun if they latch on to some fringe party because they always have some juicy stuff in their platform. Take this from the constitution party, for example:

http://www.constitutionparty.com/our-principles/key-issues/#section4

Agenda 21 is a comprehensive plan of utopian environmentalism, social engineering, and global political control that was initiated at the United Nations Conference on Environmental and Development (UNCED) held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in 1992.

Agenda 21 policy is being covertly advanced in local communities across the nation through the efforts of the International Council of Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI) in cooperation with state and municipal elected officials and bureaucrats via local “sustainable development” policies such as Smart Growth, Wildlands Project, Resilient Cities, Regional Visioning Projects, and other “Green” or “Alternative” projects.

And all of their "learn more" links go to the John Birch Society.

I thought maybe the Right To Life party might be up their alley, but it turns out that was only a NY thing. Was always weird to see that little fetus on the voter info card.

 

[itschris]

I thought this was interesting:

Daily Kos: What Does It Mean to “Clinch the Nomination” When Superdelegates Are Involved?

It goes over the history of Democratic nominations since superdelegates were added to the process. I think 1988 might be the most similar to this year:

Dukakis would win the nomination with 42% of the popular vote, just 13 points more than Jackson’s 29%, and not even close to a majority. Despite being the nominee, he would be hammered by Jackson from the left over the weeks leading up to the convention. (Source)

Jackson managed to put together a respectable second-place showing, but would be rejected by Dukakis as a vice president (Dukakis went with Lloyd “I knew Jack Kennedy” Bentsen).

Jackson was able to use his power to get members on the platform committee. While not enough to sway the majority of the committee on most issues, they did get to issue a minority report that proposed positions left to the majority of the party.

Of course, the difference being that Hillary has over 50% of the vote since there never more than two real contenders.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

They have automatic ballot status by law.

It's part of how they dissuade outsiders from running against The Party.


You don't have to bribe Castle, you have to bribe the Constitution Party apparatus to roll over for a pro-amnesty, god-hating lieberal.

Why risk jail time when you can just endorse Hillary when your independent announcement fails to go anywhere?

Spoiler

Why are you being serious when I'm trying to joke post

It's like a constant of the universe that you're supposed to agree with my insane planning

And yes, there's no way they can really run 3rd party effectively. If they do, then it means they're planning on ruining Trump as much as possible. To that end, you only need to fuck him up in some major red states like Texas. Run a regional candidate to steal his votes, watch him get blown out by 400+ in EVs, then use that as leverage to say that Trump could never have won and the party should moderate and be less racist. It would backfire, but it's the closest thing to logic I can find in a 3rd party run. Spite.

 

[benjipwns]

Americans Elect got ballot status in 30 states in 2012 and wouldn't even give its nomination to somebody who wanted it and almost fit their profile of an ideal candidate. (Buddy Roemer.)

They actually went through the process of getting themselves removed from the ballot.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

Don't know if it's been posted but from Stephen Byne

 

[VendettaRed07]

The party has coalesced more or less around Trump already, so the down ticket is probably already pretty safe though, well as safe as it can be.

I don't know if they really have. Many have sort of still gone the "well we are still feeling it out w/Trump" route. Not even Ryan has officially endorsed him. Trump by himself puts down ticket Republicans in a very awkward spot in a lot of key areas.

Dems running against them will be more so able to attach them to Trump. But if Jeb or Romney or someone of their tier run, they can endorse them instead if they feel there are in a state where backing someone who doesn't have the "racist" tag on their forehead the same way Trump does might be enough.

I feel like third party GOP removes the option for ads like we saw against McCain in a lot of key races

 

[ampere]

Don't know if it's been posted but from Stephen Byne

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CjqnnBvVAAALKdP.jpg[IMG][/QUOTE]

Hands are too big

 

[DrForester]

Unless he groups up with an established party he would be running as a straight independent with no affiliation, which is an entirely different beast.

Parties are registered.

All 50 states recognize the Democrat and Republican parties, so they have already established ballot access. If you are a small party you have to get signatures to get on a ballot in a state.

They have automatic ballot status by law.

It's part of how they dissuade outsiders from running against The Party.

Makes sense. Thanks.

 

[HUELEN10]

Don't know if it's been posted but from Stephen Byne

Poor Trump, those villains are right behind him, in great numbers!

 

[CDX]

https://twitter.com/StopTrumpPAC/st...6?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

O M G

PLEASE happen.

It will be fun if they latch on to some fringe party because they always have some juicy stuff in their platform. Take this from the constitution party, for example:

http://www.constitutionparty.com/our-principles/key-issues/#section4


And all of their "learn more" links go to the John Birch Society.

I thought maybe the Right To Life party might be up their alley, but it turns out that was only a NY thing. Was always weird to see that little fetus on the voter info card.

https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_for_major_and_minor_party_candidates

This page, under the "Ballot-qualified parties by state, April 2016 [show]" section

lists every party that has ballot access, for every state, as of last month.


For example, if they want on the ballot in Texas it looks like they'd have to do it through the Libertarian party.

 

[exmachina64]

You are right, I took 538's demographic calc and moved 10% of the College Educated White Voters away from Rep (56% D) and 5% of Non-College Educated White (57% R) people away from Reps. Assuming same turnout and no other movement.

I got this:

Some hilarious battleground states.

That's beautiful.

 

[User 463088]

Don't know if it's been posted but from Stephen Byne

Holy shit at Lord Zedd. I guess Rita supports Queen? Hate to be a fly in the wall in that house.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

The people going out of their way to defend West's insults of Obama's blackness aren't Socialists, they're people with a personality disorder.

 

[pigeon]

Can someone explain Kristol's reasoning for doing this if it turns out to be true?

Wouldn't this piss off the republican base for years to come?

The theory is that the "non-crazy" pro-business, anti-social program GOP politicians are in danger of being permanently tarred as Friends of Trump. They either have to officially oppose Trump, which leaves you in an awkward position when trying to campaign, or endorse him and end up linked to him.

A third-party "normal GOP" candidate gives them a standard bearer to switch to and allows pundits to point to them and say "see, there are non-racist conservatives." It could form the nucleus of a rebuilt conservative party that could actually, one day, compete for the presidency without having to wait three terms for the American people to get sick of good government.

 

[B-Dubs]

The theory is that the "non-crazy" pro-business, anti-social program GOP politicians are in danger of being permanently tarred as Friends of Trump. They either have to officially oppose Trump, which leaves you in an awkward position when trying to campaign, or endorse him and end up linked to him.

A third-party "normal GOP" candidate gives them a standard bearer to switch to and allows pundits to point to them and say "see, there are non-racist conservatives." It could form the nucleus of a rebuilt conservative party that could actually, one day, compete for the presidency without having to wait three terms for the American people to get sick of good government.

Which would probably be healthier politically for the country as a whole. If one of our two parties becomes the party of Trump, and he's the kingmaker, then we're going to be in a state of panic every four years. We desperately need to have two functioning parties again, what we have now, or will have after this is over and nothing changes the trajectory, is not sustainable. The Dems being the only grown-ups in the room just won't work long term.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

This supposes that if the GOP split, the non-crazy half would be the survivor.

 

[excelsiorlef]

Don't know if it's been posted but from Stephen Byne

I'm going to get hella nerdy:

I have a huge problem with Magneto being in this image let alone right next to Red fucking Skull. Magneto hasn't bern a black hat villain in ages.


I also don't like Doctor Doom there either because he's more nuanced than that.

End nerd rant