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[Iolo]

I think the Calculator-GAF thread somehow got merged in here, could a mod look into that?

Excuse me we are trying to calculate Bernie's path to the nomination okay

 

[pigeon]

Your catastrophically misleading graphic aside...

Hey benji: what is social security but a basic income for pensioners?

I was writing a response to your original post but I wanted to quickly point out that this directly contradicts your original post and in fact I was going to post almost exactly this in response to you!

We already have a basic income program for old people with some complicated fake savings stuff built in to hide the fact that it's a basic income program, and it's by far the most successful welfare program America has ever created.

 

[Snowman Prophet of Doom]

I'm not really sold on a guaranteed annual income, unless it's paired with measures that disincentivize people from dropping out of the workforce altogether. Though perhaps automation will get us to a point where having a sizable chunk of the population contributing to the economy only by purchasing things becomes some kind of a sustainable economic model.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

I was writing a response to your original post but I wanted to quickly point out that this directly contradicts your original post and in fact I was going to post almost exactly this in response to you!

We already have a basic income program for old people with some complicated fake savings stuff built in to hide the fact that it's a basic income program, and it's by far the most successful welfare program America has ever created.

I need to go work right now but I would love to respond to you later, pigeon. I have already considered this and I do not consider it a contradiction.

 

[Retromelon]

I chuckled.

It's a very cumbersome username to type out and you can't shorten it like oblivion's or coriolanus's

 

[Spoiled Milk]

It's a very cumbersome username to type out and you can't shorten it like oblivion's or coriolanus's

I just call him IWannaBe.

 

[Wilsongt]

I blame you all for Huehuehue intensifying her shtick in the OT.

 

[Y2Kev]

I'm not really sold on a guaranteed annual income, unless it's paired with measures that disincentivize people from dropping out of the workforce altogether. Though perhaps automation will get us to a point where having a sizable chunk of the population contributing to the economy only by purchasing things becomes some kind of a sustainable economic model.

I guess my question is does basic annual income replace or augment other social safety net programs?

Like my #1 retort to conservative old family members at thanksgiving complaining about welfare queens has always been yeah its so fun and luxurious to live just above the poverty level, amazing that more people just don't become welfare queens...but if you add basic income to whatever other governmental support out there, you do directly or indirectly play with the "work vs. not work" indifference curve.

Unlike fucktard Paul Ryan, I don't believe in the "dignity of work" so I think it would be silly for people to work if it is as beneficial to not work. So I guess I'd need to see how everything comes into play.

 

[Suikoguy]

I guess my question is does basic annual income replace or augment other social safety net programs?

Like my #1 retort to conservative old family members at thanksgiving complaining about welfare queens has always been yeah its so fun and luxurious to live just above the poverty level, amazing that more people just don't become welfare queens...but if you add basic income to whatever other governmental support out there, you do directly or indirectly play with the "work vs. not work" indifference curve.

Unlike fucktard Paul Ryan, I don't believe in the "dignity of work" so I think it would be silly for people to work if it is as beneficial to not work. So I guess I'd need to see how everything comes into play.

What's complicating things is none of us really know what amount should constitute the "basic income". The most likely path for the US would be to continue modifying the EITC. Of course this will, over time, clash with the minimum wage.

 

[benjipwns]

What's complicating things is none of us really know what amount should constitute the "basic income".

$23 * 40 * 52 = $47,840

Adding a 90% VAT on top of existing taxes should make that simple enough to manage.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Doug Owens' staff finally reaching out so I can get started as a volunteer, let's do this.

 

[B-Dubs]

What's complicating things is none of us really know what amount should constitute the "basic income". The most likely path for the US would be to continue modifying the EITC. Of course this will, over time, clash with the minimum wage.

I mean, I would assume it would be enough for the bare necessities: food, rent, a basic internet connection, and a cellphone. That's assuming we get UHC done by that point. But that means it would need to be adjusted depending on the cost of living in a certain area. At this point it's no more than a thought experiment, until someone tries it out we have no idea what will happen or how much it would cost.

Though perhaps automation will get us to a point where having a sizable chunk of the population contributing to the economy only by purchasing things becomes some kind of a sustainable economic model.

That's pretty much the idea behind it though. That eventually businesses will become so efficient that full employment as we know it will become unsustainable. The big questions are: is that going to happen, and how far down the road is it?

 

[benjipwns]

The Swiss referenda that'll be voted on in a week is about $1600 per adult and $410 per child per month.

So two moms and two kids would be $48,240 a year for the household.

edit: I guess that's just what the campaign groups suggest and the referendum doesn't specify any amount.

It's also not very popular:

 

[B-Dubs]

The Swiss referenda that'll be voted on in a week is about $1600 per adult and $410 per child per month.

So two moms and two kids would be $48,240 a year for the household.

edit: I guess that's just what the campaign groups suggest and the referendum doesn't specify any amount.]

Honestly, that's like double what I assumed it would be. I figured around 24k a year per person, not counting kids.

I could live pretty comfortably on that combined with what I make now.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

So how is NJ in comparison to New York or Maryland demographically speaking? Would it be fair to say because Clinton had ~30 points in Maryland that NJ is going to be similar?

 

[B-Dubs]

So how is NJ in comparison to New York or Maryland demographically speaking? Would it be fair to say because Clinton had ~30 points in Maryland that NJ is going to be similar?

Expect a win similar to NY and Maryland. I don't spend much time in Jersey myself, I only really go for soccer games, but from what I can tell the demographics aren't much different than New York.

 

[Dan]

........ What is the justification for not wanting to grow human kidneys in animals?

I'm, uhh, at a loss here.

http://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article78807902.html

There are a lot of fears about chimeras, some more valid than others.

Certain religions would have strong opposition to using cows or pigs for chimeras.

There's the broad fear of playing god, or the belief that human DNA is somehow sacred. There's a fear it could potentially speed up the process of animal diseases making the leap to humans (and I suppose vice versa).

There's the potential for chimeras to mate and actually produce a human. There's also the chance you end up producing a chimera with a human brain, which introduces all kinds of ethical questions.

There was an NPR story about this stuff recently.

Ross then retrieves the chimeric embryos to dissect them so he can see what the human stem cells are doing inside. He examines whether the human stem cells have started to form a pancreas, and whether they have begun making any other types of tissues.

The uncertainty is part of what makes the work so controversial. Ross and other scientists conducting these experiments can't know exactly where the human stem cells will go. Ross hopes they'll only grow a human pancreas. But they could go elsewhere, such as to the brain.

"If you have pigs with partly human brains you would have animals that might actually have consciousness like a human," Newman says. "It might have human-type needs. We don't really know."

That possibility raises new questions about the morality of using the animals for experimentation. Another concern is that the stem cells could form human sperm and human eggs in the chimeras.

"If a male chimeric pig mated with a female chimeric pig, the result could be a human fetus developing in the uterus of that female chimera," Newman says. Another possibility is the animals could give birth to some kind of part-human, part-pig creature.

"One of the concerns that a lot of people have is that there's something sacrosanct about what it means to be human expressed in our DNA," says Jason Robert, a bioethicist at Arizona State University. "And that by inserting that into other animals and giving those other animals potentially some of the capacities of humans that this could be a kind of violation — a kind of, maybe, even a playing God."

Still, Ross acknowledges the concerns. So he's moving very carefully, he says. For example, he's only letting the chimera embryos develop for 28 days. At that point, he removes the embryos and dissects them.

If he discovers the stem cells are going to the wrong places in the embryos, he says he can take steps to stop that from happening. In addition, he'd make sure adult chimeras are never allowed to mate, he says.

"We're very aware and sensitive to the ethical concerns," he says. "One of the reasons we're doing this research the way we're doing it is because we want to provide scientific information to inform those concerns."

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

Updated Benchmarks for California's primary:



Also, from a few days ago:

Also Obama is up to 53% approval in Gallup

 

[Dan]

So how is NJ in comparison to New York or Maryland demographically speaking? Would it be fair to say because Clinton had ~30 points in Maryland that NJ is going to be similar?

NJ has roughly identical racial breakdowns as New York state.

 

[Y2Kev]

So how is NJ in comparison to New York or Maryland demographically speaking? Would it be fair to say because Clinton had ~30 points in Maryland that NJ is going to be similar?

Sanders is going to get wicked shit on here.

 

[mo60]

Updated Benchmarks for California's primary:



Also, from a few days ago:

Looking at your second link isn't it a bit abnormal for a democrat to be strong in the south now. If hilary is strong in the south this election cycle multiple southern republican states besides the one's most people think can be taken from them like Arizona and Georgia are in danger of getting taken from the dems. I wouldn't be surprised if polling shows more southern states like MS flipping to the democrats in this election cycle eventually looking at that electoral map from benchmark politics.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

So how is NJ in comparison to New York or Maryland demographically speaking? Would it be fair to say because Clinton had ~30 points in Maryland that NJ is going to be similar?

As everyone is saying its about the same as New York.

Speaking of Jersey you guys better get your shit together and get a D gov. I want to see a Tristate Area doing progressive shit (we got to get our state senate in order this year)

 

[B-Dubs]

As everyone is saying its about the same as New York.

Speaking of Jersey you guys better get your shit together and get a D gov. I want to see a Tristate Area doing progressive shit (we got to get out state senate in order this year)

Shit, imagine what NY could get done with a dem state senate. I mean we just got $15/hr and paid family leave.

 

[RastaMentality]

Who has a real chance of winning the NJ gov spot in 2017?

 

[Sianos]

wrong thread oops

Edit:

new fear: if the old guard republicans do run a spoiler candidate to try and pretend that their base actually cares about their policies beyond the social implications, is there a way to ensure bernie doesn't hop into the mess?

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Shit, if we had that imagine what NY could get done. I mean we just got $15/he and paid family leave.

Yeah. I'm gonna be heading out to Long Island a bunch of weekends this fall. Those should be dem seats.

 

[itschris]

Looking at your second link isn't it a bit abnormal for a democrat to be strong in the south now. If hilary is strong in the south this election cycle multiple southern republican states besides the one's most people think can be taken from them like Arizona and Georgia are in danger of getting taken from the dems. I wouldn't be surprised if polling shows more southern states like MS flipping to the democrats in this election cycle eventually looking at that electoral map from benchmark politics.

It's definitely unusual. Obama managed to get within about 5 points of winning Georgia in 2008 (~8% in 2012). Mississippi was actually closer in 2012 (11% margin) than 2008 (13%). It's partly Trump, and partly gradual demographic shifts, I think. Especially Georgia, with the increasing influence of Atlanta. Georgia could become the next North Carolina or Florida - a very close state that's usually within 1-3% on either side (meanwhile, Virgina seems to be trending more blue thanks to NOVA).

 

[B-Dubs]

Yeah. I'm gonna be heading out to Long Island a bunch of weekends this fall. Those should be dem seats.

There's a few places I wouldn't pour too much money into, but those are mostly on the south shore.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

I still don't buy the automation apocalypses that everybody keeps harping about. I see certain areas (driving, manufacturing) continuing in that direction but I don't see it taking over service oriented jobs anytime soon or there being a massive unemployment crisis in our lifetimes.

I see that it could be possible but I don't see any incentives for employers to do it on a massive scale. Even things like touch ordering aren't hitting jobs too much. Never mind expanding opportunities in the tech sector which younger people will enter into. Older workers might be hurt.

I think people want it to happen more than its actually going to happen.

Automation has been happening every single year yet there are more and more jobs. Plus the aging population and millennials being the last large generation. Every one in the future is gonna get smaller.

 

[User 463088]

I just changed my entire work schedule to make sure I was off by 7:00 on the 7th. I've waited 8 years for this. No one will deny me. No one. This is my special day. I mean, her special day.

Fuck.

 

[Mrs. Manky]

Yeah that bothers me too. Magneto hates the Red Skull

I should have know that you'd be on top of this, Slayven. Magneto and Doctor Doom should be beating up the Red Skull, not chilling with him.

Now, Red Skull should be there. Same for Loki, because not only is this chaos, Trump is of German descent. We got some Norseness going on.

But the main point is good. Just iffy on the details.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

I just changed my entire work schedule to make sure I was off by 7:00 on the 7th. I've waited 8 years for this. No one will deny me. No one. This is my special day. I mean, her special day.

Fuck.

Should have just called out sick.

 

[itschris]

I'm definitely going to have CNN on, and I'll be watching the results come in on DecisionDeskHQ / NYTimes while browsing GAF, reddit, etc. all evening and night on the 7th.

Spoiler

How pathetic. I'm not even American!

 

[Makai]

I still don't buy the automation apocalypses that everybody keeps harping about. I see certain areas (driving, manufacturing) continuing in that direction but I don't see it taking over service oriented jobs anytime soon or there being a massive unemployment crisis in our lifetimes.

I see that it could be possible but I don't see any incentives for employers to do it on a massive scale. Even things like touch ordering aren't hitting jobs too much. Never mind expanding opportunities in the tech sector which younger people will enter into. Older workers might be hurt.

I think people want it to happen more than its actually going to happen.

Automation has been happening every single year yet there are more and more jobs. Plus the aging population and millennials being the last large generation. Every one in the future is gonna get smaller.

Wendy's plans to eliminate all cashiers in all locations this year. But yeah, automation is too slow to outpace jobs. We had the technology to get rid of cashiers 20 years ago.

 

[IrishNinja]

I blame you all for Huehuehue intensifying her shtick in the OT.

serious question: why was he unbanned a while back, after the Sonic green eyes fiasco? feels like a mistake

 

[HylianTom]

I just changed my entire work schedule to make sure I was off by 7:00 on the 7th. I've waited 8 years for this. No one will deny me. No one. This is my special day. I mean, her special day.

Fuck.

I really regret not taking the 8th off. Looks like it's going to be a fun/late night.

Might have to consider a rare instance where I call-in sick.

 

[Wilsongt]

I just changed my entire work schedule to make sure I was off by 7:00 on the 7th. I've waited 8 years for this. No one will deny me. No one. This is my special day. I mean, her special day.

Fuck.

Why take off work for a Bernie win and countless hours of FRAUD!

 

[kess]

Expect a win similar to NY and Maryland. I don't spend much time in Jersey myself, I only really go for soccer games, but from what I can tell the demographics aren't much different than New York.

New Jersey has tons of minorities and urban professionals, demographics that are like hot death to Bernie. I'm quite certain he'll run up his highest tallies in Hunterdon and Warren, which are both fairly rural and supermajority white counties on the periphery of the PHI/NY axis that influences the state's politics.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Wendy's plans to eliminate all cashiers in all locations this year. But yeah, automation is too slow to outpace jobs. We had the technology to get rid of cashiers 20 years ago.

We had it in the 50s.

But even with Wendy's thing how many Cashiers are just cashiers? They prepare orders, clean, etc.

I've been to a ton of places that have those touch ordering and there were roughly the same amount of people.

 

[Makai]

We had it in the 50s.

But even with Wendy's thing how many Cashiers are just cashiers? They prepare orders, clean, etc.

I've been to a ton of places that have those touch ordering and there were roughly the same amount of people.

There's some amount of manhours that is saved each day from the kiosks such that the staff can shrink.

 

[TheLaughingStock]

I was writing a response to your original post but I wanted to quickly point out that this directly contradicts your original post and in fact I was going to post almost exactly this in response to you!

We already have a basic income program for old people with some complicated fake savings stuff built in to hide the fact that it's a basic income program, and it's by far the most successful welfare program America has ever created.

But it's not for everyone. Social Security excludes folks who are not disabled, survivors, or elderly. It taxes current workers to mitigate inflationary battles between workers and current beneficiaries for good and services. The program can only work if the economy maintains the productive capacity to support it. If the economy cannot sustain the % GDP needed for SS now and in the future, then it doesn't matter whether the trust fund is in surplus/deficit or how much money people have. It will fail and the promise cannot be kept.

Unconditional income is very different animal than SS. You're talking about crediting the bank accounts of nearly 250 million adults or all residents in the 10s of thousands of $s, abolishing federal programs because the stipend or negative income tax is supposedly more efficient, and crossing your fingers that the US produces the output that will provide the guaranteed living standard people perceive as the minimum. That can't be guaranteed to people just by receiving $ and is a recipe for big trouble.

 

[Holmes]

I'm definitely going to have CNN on, and I'll be watching the results come in on DecisionDeskHQ / NYTimes while browsing GAF, reddit, etc. all evening and night on the 7th.

Spoiler

How pathetic. I'm not even American!

Come in chat.

 

[kess]

“Politicians have used you and stolen your votes. They have given you nothing,” Trump said. “I will give you everything. I will give you what you’ve been looking for for 50 years. I’m the only one.”

A repeal of the Voting Rights Act?

 

[disastermouse]

I still don't buy the automation apocalypses that everybody keeps harping about. I see certain areas (driving, manufacturing) continuing in that direction but I don't see it taking over service oriented jobs anytime soon or there being a massive unemployment crisis in our lifetimes.

I see that it could be possible but I don't see any incentives for employers to do it on a massive scale. Even things like touch ordering aren't hitting jobs too much. Never mind expanding opportunities in the tech sector which younger people will enter into. Older workers might be hurt.

I think people want it to happen more than its actually going to happen.

Automation has been happening every single year yet there are more and more jobs. Plus the aging population and millennials being the last large generation. Every one in the future is gonna get smaller.

Some jobs would be resistant to automation mostly because customers wouldn't tolerate it.

 

[Aaron Strife]

It's definitely unusual. Obama managed to get within about 5 points of winning Georgia in 2008 (~8% in 2012). Mississippi was actually closer in 2012 (11% margin) than 2008 (13%). It's partly Trump, and partly gradual demographic shifts, I think. Especially Georgia, with the increasing influence of Atlanta. Georgia could become the next North Carolina or Florida - a very close state that's usually within 1-3% on either side (meanwhile, Virgina seems to be trending more blue thanks to NOVA).

Democrats have extremely high floors in Southern states because they have high black populations. The problem is that the whites usually split 90-10 republican or some absurd ratio.

Georgia could go blue eventually for the reasons you outlined. Arizona and Texas are somewhat similar due to growth in the Hispanic vote, but Hispanics are far less politically engaged than African-Americans (who have the highest turnout of any racial group in America) so they'll lag behind NC/GA. But they'll get there. Trump's nationalism seems to be the best thing to happen to Hispanic voter registration efforts because it's been skyrocketing at least in Arizona from people wanting to vote against Trump.

These demographic shifts are also making Virginia and (in theory) Florida safer states for Democrats too. If we get to a point where Republicans are fighting over Georgia and Texas and have to concede Florida they're probably locked out of the White House for a bit. Resentment in the rust belt might give them Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin with fighting chances in Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Michigan but that doesn't seem to have happened yet and those states are shrinking anyway.

 

[disastermouse]

We had it in the 50s.

But even with Wendy's thing how many Cashiers are just cashiers? They prepare orders, clean, etc.

I've been to a ton of places that have those touch ordering and there were roughly the same amount of people.

Sheetz gas stations are like this. If you want food, you order at a kiosk. Doesn't seem to cut down too much on labor, more of a workflow optimator.

 

[johnsmith]

A repeal of the Voting Rights Act?

The man who promises everything is sure to fulfil nothing, and everyone who promises too much is in danger of using evil means in order to carry out his promises, and is already on the road to perdition.

- Carl Jung


I don't know how anybody can listen to Trump say stuff like that and not have massive red flags and fire alarms go off.

 

[Teggy]

Wendy's plans to eliminate all cashiers in all locations this year. But yeah, automation is too slow to outpace jobs. We had the technology to get rid of cashiers 20 years ago.

Anyone who has ordered at a drive through knows how automated ordering would be better. These days I'll often make my decision about where to eat if I can handle it online or through an app. Panera, 5 Guys, Subway, Chilis, Dominos, even the local Chinese place (where it can help a lot due to language issues).

I guess it will elimante some jobs, but that means government needs to think about what they can do to make the transition easier (like with coal) not stifle innovation or prevent those who will be keeping their jobs from having a living wage.

Edit: btw, Trump will make sure there is candy in the cafeteria vending machines and no homework on Fridays.

 

[Makai]

You know what really needs to be automated? Elections. It is absurd that we can't go to www.vote.gov to cast our votes.

 

[Teggy]

You know what really needs to be automated? Elections. It is absurd that we can't go to www.vote.gov to cast our votes.

It would be amazing. I don't know how they will ever get past people's paranoia with hacking, though.