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PoliGAF 2016 |OT6| Delete your accounts
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
- Start date
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The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Damnit! This ends right before Obama announces Joe and a few days before Palin. Where's the next one!?
Welp.
plagiarize
Banned
Some of us need more than a random string of letters to understand you! I googled this and got some stuff about endipeptidase and mass spectrometry.
Anyways, do you guys believe me that California is going to be close yet?
why should we listen to you
who are you
this is like when plinko said for ten years that ted cruz would be the nominee and how he all told us
this was after ben carson mania
I'm on to you
I'm on to everyone
plagiarize
Banned
It's a prediction I made based on demographics. Now some polls are starting to suggest close races. It's just a guess, but it's what I think will happen based on certain data. 538 ran an article today about how depending on what demographic model you use Cali could be close or a blow out for Clinton. I'm confident it'll be close. I was dubious of the polls in Michigan but didn't say anything and was left wishing I had. So this time I have voiced my belief that the polls are way undervaluing Sanders.
But we shall see.
I said Ted Cruz didn't stand a chance to be the nominee when he put his name in the hat. He made it far further than I thought he would. I also didn't think Trump would be the nominee until after the first few primaries when it started to look very plausible. So I've been wrong before too.
I'm just making predictions like the rest of you. If I called this being close when most of you were thinking Clinton would win by double digits... well, I'll take some pride from it.
That's all!
Now what's all this ARG IS A C business?
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Best political meme ever...
And I don't even like Pokémon.
And I don't even like Pokémon.
plagiarize
Banned
You brought him up. I just mentioned it to point out that I make no claims of being infallible with my predictions, because he did way better than I thought he would. I mean, he still didn't come anywhere close to winning, but I didn't see him getting the delegates he got or lasting as long as he did. I thought that both him and Jindal would fall out very early on, but only Jindal did.
User 463088
Banned
I predict that one of y'all is gonna cook me breakfast. And mimosas. Please....
Manmademan
Member
State and agency probably.
I know for a fact that my facility superintendent (who is either at Max salary level or very close to it within the agency) only has a high school degree.
I don't think that's possible within the other state departments, just ours.
Omg, I remember this one. Has it really been that long?😭Best political meme ever...
And I don't even like Pokémon.
User 463088
Banned
When and where should I find the results from today? Oh how I hope he's non viable...
plagiarize
Banned
I'd make you a cocktail but I'm fresh out of Sunny D.
I think results are like 3pm you crazy goose.
"Hillary can only win in the deep, deep, deep, DEEP South."
User 463088
Banned
Tang or Gatorade will do in a pinch
I want the results now..... Why didn't we pay them off to call it at 11am. Sad!
VI closes at 6pm EST and it might take a while to get the results.
plagiarize
Banned
Nah. How long can it take to count 70,000 votes or whatever.
The Virgin Islands are 1 hour ahead of EST, and voting is on islands of St. Thomas and St. John from 10 am to 6 pm local time. A mandatory 15 percent threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be pledged National Convention delegates.
I'd be really surprised if Bernie gets less than 15%
It's a caucus, won't be anywhere near that many votes lol. Expect ~4000 based on 2008
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/VI-D.phtml
I would be surprised if he got more that 15%. The island is 76% AA. He lost MS 16-84 with the electorate at 72%.
Obama won VI with 90% of the vote in 08.
==
User 463088
Banned
Sad
I've never been banned from anything before.....
adam lives in the Virgin Islands because he's never getting any.
User 463088
Banned
Sad but true. No lies detected.
True. I have no idea really, I don't think there's good polling so we can only predict with the demographics
plagiarize
Banned
Mainly I'm hoping for two wins this weekend to show the idiocy of this Seth Abramson piece.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/make-no-mistake-sanderism_b_10008136.html
You might remember. It's the one that seemed to take it as likely that Clinton would win fewer of the final 25 contests than she did in 2008.
She'd already won seven of them at the time he posted this article. So basically Abramson was saying 'she might well' win 1 or 0 of the 9 remaining contests.
Which is utterly absurd. He then spins off a whole article explaining why she is doing worse in the final 25 than she did in 2008.
WHEN SHE ALMOST CERTAINLY ISN'T.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/make-no-mistake-sanderism_b_10008136.html
You might remember. It's the one that seemed to take it as likely that Clinton would win fewer of the final 25 contests than she did in 2008.
She'd already won seven of them at the time he posted this article. So basically Abramson was saying 'she might well' win 1 or 0 of the 9 remaining contests.
Which is utterly absurd. He then spins off a whole article explaining why she is doing worse in the final 25 than she did in 2008.
WHEN SHE ALMOST CERTAINLY ISN'T.
nature boy
Member
Argh, why do they want to eliminate superdelegates?
jack_package_200
Banned
So are we anticipating the Virgin Islands are going to Hillary?
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Oh, I'm going to that.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Two's company, three's a meetup. Maybe pigeon can come up and tell me I'm dumb.
Yeah, and it's possible Bernie gets 0 delegates if he gets less than 15% of the vote
Aaron Strife
Banned
I'm ok getting rid of superdelegates.
On one hand I see the logic behind them for stopping guys like Trump. On the other I feel like if that's what voters want that's what they should get.
Every time the #nevertrump people talk about him they make it sound like he's just this unstoppable hurricane that appeared out of nowhere and grabbed the helpless Republican Party by the balls, unfairly. No, he ran as a candidate and campaigned like everyone else and voters were simply most receptive to his candidacy.
I don't believe full democracy is the best option in every case, but it really is a matter of where you draw that line. And I really don't like the idea of the possibility that you'll hold elections in every state, the pledged delegates go for one candidate and the supers can go "lol psyche" and give it to the other one anyway. That's what Sanders' current strategy is predicated on and I'd be fucking pissed if they robbed Clinton, even though I find Sanders' platform (broadly speaking, I'm not convinced he knows how to get any of it done or has a Plan B on anything) more agreeable.
On one hand I see the logic behind them for stopping guys like Trump. On the other I feel like if that's what voters want that's what they should get.
Every time the #nevertrump people talk about him they make it sound like he's just this unstoppable hurricane that appeared out of nowhere and grabbed the helpless Republican Party by the balls, unfairly. No, he ran as a candidate and campaigned like everyone else and voters were simply most receptive to his candidacy.
I don't believe full democracy is the best option in every case, but it really is a matter of where you draw that line. And I really don't like the idea of the possibility that you'll hold elections in every state, the pledged delegates go for one candidate and the supers can go "lol psyche" and give it to the other one anyway. That's what Sanders' current strategy is predicated on and I'd be fucking pissed if they robbed Clinton, even though I find Sanders' platform (broadly speaking, I'm not convinced he knows how to get any of it done or has a Plan B on anything) more agreeable.
but you'd have brokered conventions every 4 years in a multi candidiate field without them
Spoiled Milk
Banned
In a superdelegate system, party leaders have a say and a stake in the outcome of their primary, thus using their influence to affect the outcome. In a brokered convention, party leaders have a say and a stake in the outcome of their primary, thus using their influence to affect the outcome.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I'd say then just base it on plurality, but that is the main argument in my head for superdelegates.
I guess I don't really have a perfect solution for this. Maybe instant run-off primary voting? That would weed out the O'Malleys and Chafees pretty quick.
Superdelegates sound really bad if you look at them like a force that will steal elections from the will of the people, but that hasn't actually happened and like Kris said technically the party could do that at the convention anyway.
I don't think getting rid of them is a meaningful change, but caucuses need to go
I don't think getting rid of them is a meaningful change, but caucuses need to go
Cesare Borgia
Banned
I'd prefer a system similar to the GOP's with winner take all delegate states. I wouldn't gate the process by making expensive states like New York WTA, but I'd like a fair amount of states to be WTA. That alone would eliminate the need for super delegates.
I'd also prefer fewer caucuses.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
I want
Is that so much to ask for? Damn.
- No caucuses
- Strictly proportional
- Direct democracy, i.e. remove "delegates" entirely
- Online voting
- Semi closed primaries (independents can vote in any primary they choose but one party cannot sabotage the other)
- Where deadlines to change parties is early
- But deadline to register to vote is late
Is that so much to ask for? Damn.
Box of Kittens
Banned
In my view, superdelegates aren't useful in a Trump situation. The amount of damage done to the party by overturning the will of the voters like that really makes it unrealistic to use them in that way. I do see potential use in avoiding a contested convention in the event that no candidate receives a majority of the pledged delegates, so that the convention can be used to promote the nominee. I could also see them having a use if a scandal breaks about the frontrunner late in the primary season or between the primaries and the convention.
metalslimer
Member
Yep, I see them as insurance more than anything. I honestly don't see why party officials shouldn't have some say in the process. Maybe lessen the supers and the number needed to clinch?
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
Yes?
Even the no caucuses is a huge stretch, why would small states do primaries when it's so much cheaper to keep doing what they are doing when their direct representation of the primary is so small?
Online voting is a pipe dream atm
Zero chance we remove delegates, that would destroy any type of representation smaller states have in the matter.
Also I don't understand strictly proportional and popular vote, those two contradict each other if you're talking about proportional delegates.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
I still don't get why independents should be a special class of voters.
What incentive is there to register for either party in such a scenario?
Just register independent, be the special snowflake, and fuck around in either primary if you feel like it.
What incentive is there to register for either party in such a scenario?
Just register independent, be the special snowflake, and fuck around in either primary if you feel like it.
RastaMentality
Banned
I have a stupid final at the exact same time. If I never get to see Hilldawg, I'm blaming this nutrition class.
Especially at the cost of the base.
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