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PoliGAF 2016 |OT6| Delete your accounts

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J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
euphemism said:
If you think that what happened in the 90s under Clinton harmed more people than the Wars on terror under bush then I can't think of you as anything other than extremely callous and narrow minded. Sure, his crime bill hurt many minorities, but it wasn't as if the prison/judicial/police system wasn't already terrible before. Sure economic inequality and welfare reform hurt many over the decades, but it only added to the already bad state of affairs. You can't throw all of it at Clinton's feet. But with the Bush admin, their decisions ruined lives and killed thousands if not hundreds of thousands of people globally. And it isn't like the Bush tax cuts helped economic inequality any. What you're pushing is straight up revisionism.
Click to expand...

His M.O. is disliking Democrats who aren't as left as he wants more than Republicans who are as far right as he expects. It's about his standards and not the actual consequences.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Random diablosing. The Trump bump is because he's wrapped it up. The other transient? bumps come from things like the convention and the party coalescing.

Wacky Bernie's campaign of petulance means none of this could happen for HRC until the convention. And if he brings it into the convention itself then it may not happen even then.

#disarray
 
GutsOfThor

GutsOfThor

Member
shinra-bansho said:
Random diablosing. The Trump bump is because he's wrapped it up. The other transient? bumps come from things like the convention and the party coalescing.

Wacky Bernie's campaign of petulance means none of this could happen for HRC until the convention. And if he brings it into the convention itself then it may not happen even then.

#disarray
Click to expand...

I was thinking about that. You mean to tell me that Hillary will have only 3 months to patch things up? Eeesh....

I knew the Dems would fuck this up somehow.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
GutsOfThor said:
I was thinking about that. You mean to tell me that Hillary will have only 3 months to patch things up? Eeesh....

I knew the Dems would fuck this up somehow.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't say Dems in general are fucking this up... More like a subset of Dems..

This whole thing really should have been wrapped up way before the clusterfuck of a GOP nom was finished, but nope!
 
C

Clefargle

Member
Joe Shlabotnik said:
His M.O. is disliking Democrats who aren't as left as he wants more than Republicans who are as far right as he expects. It's about his standards and not the actual consequences.
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Oh I'm aware. I just want to see him defend these revisionist and callous statements. The dems could be more progressive, sure. I absolutely believe that, but how that in any way makes them less progressive than a clown facist running as a republican, I have no idea how someone gets there. Neoliberal policies are bad, sure, let's work within the CLEARLY more progressive vehicle to enact that change as opposed to voting for an enormous question mark in the flesh. I mean, if trump won, even if he was magically super progressive, does anyone seriously think the presumably right wing controlled house and senate would let him pass such measures? It's fucking ridiculous and ass backwards. It takes such a fundamental misunderstanding of every dynamic in American politics that I have to assume those pishing these ideas have either paid ZERO attention over the last couple of decades or are misrepresenting facts because they hate Clinton.
 
P

PBY

Banned
I will say one thing - I'm kind of hesitant to just say that Hillary will definitely get a bump post sealing the nom.

Feel like her name recognition is such that she won't get as significant a boost as other candidates historically do.
 
P

PBY

Banned
royalan said:
I think Hillary's is a strong candidate. That she might end the primary close to her 2008 numbers, and that we're almost three weeks into Trump still trying (and failing) to make the Lewinsky scandal happen again, tells me she's a strong candidate.

Problem is she can't flex what makes her a strong candidate while she's still in a primary against a guy that is lying to a significant portion of the Democratic base by screaming she's corrupt every time there's a microphone in front him. Sanders is actively looking to damage her as much as he can. He'd be a pest for any candidate running against him, and not in the sense that he could win, but because he's displayed no qualms with damaging you as much as possible on the way out.
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I disagree with this. She's a supremely qualified and capable candidate - but she's not a strong candidate. You can't be a strong candidate and have the 2nd highest unfavorables in history. I'm starting to worry about Trump, and am thinking that a fresher face may have fared better, but who knows. It just sucks bc most of this is not her fault.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
GutsOfThor said:
I was thinking about that. You mean to tell me that Hillary will have only 3 months to patch things up? Eeesh....

I knew the Dems would fuck this up somehow.
Click to expand...

I think it'll still be fine. Everyone right now seems to be holding back because of Bernie. Once the leash is off of Obama, Bill, Biden, and so on, things will get a lot more interesting.

PBY said:
I disagree with this. She's a supremely qualified and capable candidate - but she's not a strong candidate. You can't be a strong candidate and have the 2nd highest unfavorables in history. I'm starting to worry about Trump, and am thinking that a fresher face may have fared better, but who knows. It just sucks bc most of this is not her fault.
Click to expand...

Coming as close as she did to beating Obama should put any thoughts she's a weak candidate to rest. She managed to compete with Obama on a level ground, even though Obama is one of the best speech givers and hype boosters of any living politician
 
N

nature boy

Member
Looking around, and the first issue with the Rasmussen poll: only 57% of African American voters for Clinton.

Really want to see the latino vote.
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
PBY said:
I disagree with this. She's a supremely qualified and capable candidate - but she's not a strong candidate. You can't be a strong candidate and have the 2nd highest unfavorables in history. I'm starting to worry about Trump, and am thinking that a fresher face may have fared better, but who knows. It just sucks bc most of this is not her fault.
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she is capable, experience and qualified. Yes.

But I agree with all of you who say that she is a crappy campaigner. She had missteps in 2008 when she was supposed to seal the deal.

usually a boring candidate like Kerry or a Gore would have clinched already.
But she just drags it on limping unable to convince the the undecideds.

IMO, I think she is extremely lucky that Trump is her opponent.
I seriously believe that a Rubio or a Jeb that could have matched Dubya's numbers with Latinos that would have given Democrats more trouble.

Hillary must thank the Gods that they parachuted Trump in 2016 to help her win in November.

she is a very qualified politician who is simply bad at campaigning
 
A

ampere

Member
nature boy said:
Looking around, and the first issue with the Rasmussen poll: only 57% of African American voters for Clinton.

Really want to see the latino vote.
Click to expand...

Only 57%, wow. Should be more like 90%

I imagine we'll get better data after June, and focusing on poll aggregates
 
R

RustyNails

Member
All the GE polling right now is essentially split three ways because Bernie is still in it. That's causing a huge spike in noise in all the polling screens. Democrats and independents are tepid about Hillary as the nominee because Sanders is refusing to concede and they want the process to play out. The fact that Hillary is being attacked by Sanders from the left, Donald on the right and Sanders campaign is attacking the whole democratic party as corrupt is doing serious damage to her standing.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
RustyNails said:
All the GE polling right now is essentially split three ways because Bernie is still in it. That's causing a huge spike in noise in all the polling screens. Democrats and independents are tepid about Hillary as the nominee because Sanders is refusing to concede and they want the process to play out. The fact that Hillary is being attacked by Sanders from the left, Donald on the right and Sanders campaign is attacking the whole democratic party as corrupt is doing serious damage to her standing.
Click to expand...

So can we blame Bernie when Trump wins? Or will it still be Clinton and the establishment's fault?
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
there is on thing the Hillary has that Trump does not, an incumbent popular President who can stump for her.

Trump has shunned the entire Bush family, the last remaining living Presidents.

If Obama is awarded the keynote address at the convention to come full circle from his 2004 speech = major bump for Hilldawg.

then he will be available to stump for her in one front. Send Bill in the South. Send Joe in the Rust belt.

Who will stump for Trump?
 
T

TheLostBigBoss

Banned
Does anyone have polls from back in 2008 when Obama and Hillary were still going at it and McCain had already clinched the nomination?

I wanna see some parallels
 
K

Knuckle Sandwich

Member
Captain Pants said:
TL:DR= I need recommendations for a good breakfast place in Fresno.

Every year my fiancé and I drive from Boise to her family's cabin on the edge of Sequoia National Park. We leave in the evening and drive straight through the night so that we can make the most of our week off.

The plan is always to stop in Fresno, hit up the Trader Joe's for groceries and then drive up the mountain to her cabin. This year we got into Fresno an hour before Trader Joe's opened, so I googled 'best breakfast in Fresno' and the Fresno Breakfast House came up. It sounded like a reasonable place to go...

It is the ugliest, tackiest, worst restaurant I've ever been to. American flags on the dirty plates. Jesus stuff all over the walls. Shit coffee and cold food.

Rant is over. If you can recommend a good alternative, I'd greatly appreciate it. There's nothing worse than driving 14 hours straight and paying good money for a bad breakfast.
Click to expand...

http://cafeleonfresno.com/ Cafe Leon is the bomb if you like mexican. I go there a couple times a month. The food is really good and the prices are great. 8 bucks gets you a giant fucking plate. That Trader Joe's is moving btw. Going to this shopping center they're building. http://zinkindevelopment.com/park-crossing/

This has been your Fresno food guide/news update.
 
T

TheLostBigBoss

Banned
fIqdSZt.png


Race did tighten while Obama and Hillary were still duking it out, before that Obama had something like a 6+ point lead. After Hillary dropped out Obama got a big ol' boost

Obama got a decent break away till whatever that giant spike late in the race was (Palin? couldn't be that late in the game could it?)

PRICTIONS

Clinton is going to get at least two major boosts

1) Bernie dropping out and media not talking about #demsdissary and Clinton not running against two people
2) Obama + Biden + Warren going to bat for her
 
T

TheLostBigBoss

Banned
eBay Huckster said:
that giant spike late in the race is the recession kicking into high gear combined with Palin
Click to expand...

Ahhh, I almost forgot about that pesky little huge recession.

didn't realize McCain got a huge spike around that time, must have bombed again when he said "the fundamentals of our economy are sound" right before it all went to poop
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Also Hillary wasn't demonizing Obama and her campaign wasn't going scorched earth on the Democratic party and corruption message. They were "traditional" rivals.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
RustyNails said:
Also Hillary wasn't demonizing Obama and her campaign wasn't going scorched earth on the Democratic party and corruption message. They were "traditional" rivals.
Click to expand...

Ultimately, I think Bernie is simply preaching to the choir. To people who were never going to vote anyway, who had never voted before, or had always just voted third party. I'm not all that worried that this will have any lasting effect on Hillary, especially now that Bernie has outed himself as just as delusion as his supporters, making it easy for the media and regular people, to just dismiss him entirely and his rants as simple ramblings of a sore loser.

I think we're looking for reasons to find problems and make big deals about meaningless things because there really isn't anything particularly interesting going on with the election right now besides Bernie's meltdown.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
June Showdown- Adam287
All June contest

*Veepstakes is going to be in PoliGAF

2016 Republican National Convention-b-dubs
2016 Democratic National Convention- NeoXChaos

1st Presidential Debate-b-dubs
Vice Presidential Debate-Ebay Huckster
2nd Presidential Debate-kingkitty
3rd Presidential Debate-Holmes

General Election 2016-Aaron Strife
Click to expand...

.
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
Wilsongt said:
So can we blame Bernie when Trump wins? Or will it still be Clinton and the establishment's fault?
Click to expand...

You're welcome to waste your own time, but generally I don't bother talking to people who think a Trump victory is a done deal. Hypothesising about it now is kind of like hypothesizing about Bernie being top of the ticket in November. Sure it's plausible... but it's far from probable. I'll start worrying if it ever starts to look probable.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
When Cesare Borgia, Black Mamba or pigeon three of our most mature, level-headed and highly respected PoliGaffers start diablosing then we can worry. Until then cool it peeps.
 
C

Captain Pants

Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
Knuckle Sandwich said:
http://cafeleonfresno.com/ Cafe Leon is the bomb if you like mexican. I go there a couple times a month. The food is really good and the prices are great. 8 bucks gets you a giant fucking plate. That Trader Joe's is moving btw. Going to this shopping center they're building. http://zinkindevelopment.com/park-crossing/

This has been your Fresno food guide/news update.
Click to expand...

That place looks fantastic! Definitely going to stop there on our way through.
hawk2025 said:
Captain Pants:

While at Trader Joe's, pick up some Mochi Balls:
Click to expand...
I'll do that the next time I'm there, although I probably won't take any to the cabin. The refrigerators there are run off of propane, and the freezer is tiny/doesn't really work right.
 
C

Clefargle

Member
I'm not too worried about trump pulling an upset off. The demographics would have to shift SIGNIFICANTLY for it to happen. The fact that so many Bernie supporters are flirting with the idea of voting for him or not turning out to vote against him does scare me a little, but the. I tell myself that they are still an unreliable voting block and are also major salty right now. I just can't inagine supporting that guy unless it was literally Beelzebub on the other side...
 
E

Emarv

Member
gutter_trash said:
there is on thing the Hillary has that Trump does not, an incumbent popular President who can stump for her.

Trump has shunned the entire Bush family, the last remaining living Presidents.

If Obama is awarded the keynote address at the convention to come full circle from his 2004 speech = major bump for Hilldawg.

then he will be available to stump for her in one front. Send Bill in the South. Send Joe in the Rust belt.

Who will stump for Trump?
Click to expand...

jimmy-carter.jpg
 
R

RustyNails

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
Ultimately, I think Bernie is simply preaching to the choir. To people who were never going to vote anyway, who had never voted before, or had always just voted third party. I'm not all that worried that this will have any lasting effect on Hillary, especially now that Bernie has outed himself as just as delusion as his supporters, making it easy for the media and regular people, to just dismiss him entirely and his rants as simple ramblings of a sore loser.

I think we're looking for reasons to find problems and make big deals about meaningless things because there really isn't anything particularly interesting going on with the election right now besides Bernie's meltdown.
Click to expand...
It is a Bernie meltdown but I do think that stuff like this can affect the general election. Look at Pat Buchannan derailing HW's election bid in 1992. The Buchannanites did not yield one bit to HW, and Pat even went off script during the Republican convention by platforming his movement conservative on the national podium. I'm sure that played a big deal to HW's loss along with the Perot third party run and Bill's candidacy.
 
O

Ophelion

Member
NeoXChaos said:
When Cesare Borgia, Black Mamba or pigeon three of our most mature, level-headed and highly respected PoliGaffers start diablosing then we can worry. Until then cool it peeps.
Click to expand...

Like I said before, canary in the mines. If those guys start sweating, then I worry. Not before.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Why do I have this weird feeling Jimmy will outlive Bush Sr and maybe even Bill Clinton (who isn't looking that great recently). And still people will ask themselves if he's still alive.
 
i_am_ben

i_am_ben

running_here_and_there
No doubt Hillary will get a consolidation bump, but I wonder how significant and prolonged the results of the FBI email investigation will be on her poll numbers.
 
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