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PoliGAF 2016 |OT6| Delete your accounts

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Wilsongt

Member
GOP itching to impeach someone.

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-...about-impeachment-not-obamas?cid=sm_fb_maddow

Nearly a century and a half later, House Republicans appear eager to give Belknap some company. The Washington Post reported yesterday:

Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) introduced a resolution on Wednesday to censure IRS Commissioner John Koskinen, raising the stakes in the GOP war against the tax collector days before a hearing on whether to impeach him.

The four-page resolution seeks Koskinen’s resignation or removal by President Obama and calls on the IRS chief to forfeit his federal pension.

Chaffetz, the far-right chairman of the House Oversight Committee, explained in a statement yesterday, “I view censure as a precursor to impeachment.” He added a few weeks ago, “My foremost goal is impeachment and I’m not letting go of it.”

No, of course not. That might be responsible.

By any sane metric, the idea of congressional impeachment against the IRS commissioner is bonkers. House Republicans are apparently still worked up about an IRS “scandal” that doesn’t exist, and though Koskinen wasn’t even at the agency at the time of the alleged wrongdoing, GOP lawmakers want to impeach him because they disapprove of his handling of the imaginary controversy.

Given that the year is half over, Koskinen won’t be in the job much longer – he’ll likely leave office when the Obama administration wraps up – and there’s no credible reason to believe the Senate will remove the IRS chief from office, why bother with impeachment? Politico reported something interesting yesterday:

Two weeks ago, in a closed-door meeting with Paul Ryan, Reps. Jim Jordan and Mark Meadows gave the speaker an ultimatum: They would force a House vote to impeach the IRS commissioner — unless he allowed the Judiciary Committee to take action against John Koskinen instead.

The two founding members of the ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus had been working behind the scenes for well over a year to take down Koskinen for accusations that he obstructed a congressional investigation. GOP leaders and senior republicans, however, had never been keen on the idea, fearing it was ultimately futile and that the spectacle would backfire on Republicans.

Right-wing lawmakers would not, however, take no for answer. Jordan and Meadows vowed to force an impeachment vote onto the floor unless House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) signed off an impeachment hearing in the Judiciary Committee, and the Republican leader relented. The hearing is scheduled for Tuesday.

Chaffetz is also the guy that the PP lady made look like a fool.
 
Adam. Don't you think this is just like the "uneducated black vote" argument? If what you said is true, why does Sanders do so much better with the college educated vote?

I actually don't think it's the same argument at all. I'm not saying if college kids were "better educated" they'd support Clinton. I'm saying Bernie's lack of specificity is a feature because they haven't been involved in politics before. If you believe that healthcare and education are a problem, then Bernie is offering you the gold standard solution. Their justification for supporting Bernie is 100% fine. I'm not belittling them for it. I'm not saying they're wrong or anything like that. Just that if you're new to the process, Bernie's solutions make total sense.

He doesn't always do better with the college educated voters. In fact, Hillary does better with those with postgraduate education than Bernie ever has. I would argue, though, that Bernie's ability to do well with "Some college" people is related to how he's doing among 18-29 year olds. They're the ones that are probably still in college. Hillary doing better with people with less formal education is probably, in part, because of the horrible way in which we segregate educational attainment.
 

Drakeon

Member
There's no point. The debate will have happened so close to the California primary that most of California will have already voted via mail in ballots.

Not that yet another Debate would have changed my mind, but yes, a lot of people have already received and turned in their ballots via mail (my wife and I for example). I don't understand yet another debate before California, what is Sanders going to talk about? Something new? Doubtful, it's probably going to be his talking points from his stump speech yet again.
 

Fox318

Member
Here are the top Republican priorities right now.

1. Banning Muslims from the United States
2. Assaulting women that are masculine looking in any way when they try to use the bathroom to bully transgender individuals.
3. Deporting 11 million people and extorting Mexico to pay for a wall along the southern border.

This is actually what the party is focused on right now, not whatever Bernie stans think is happening.

Ehhh I wouldn't say that.

I'd argue that Abortion is the number 1 issue.

I honestly don't get the recent Transgender outburst issue.

I mean there are less than 800,000 people who identify as Transgender in the nation. You are probably more likely to meet somebody missing a limb than somebody who you would even recognize as transgender in a bathroom.
 

Zornack

Member
She wouldn't even need to roll out any more superdelegate endorsements. Just winning NJ even by a hair would get her there, assuming Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands split somewhat evenly.

50% in Puerto Rico, 50% in Virgin islands, 45% in NJ = she has the nomination.

5 PM PST on the 7th, three hours before polls close in California, and she'll have all the delegates she needs.
 
The reason I mentioned supers was my previous position was go ahead and roll out the endrosements and seal this up. I no longer think she should do that. Wait until NJ closes, and then bye bye Birdie.
 

Drakeon

Member
Ehhh I wouldn't say that.

I'd argue that Abortion is the number 1 issue.

I honestly don't get the recent Transgender outburst issue.

I mean there are less than 800,000 people who identify as Transgender in the nation. You are probably more likely to meet somebody missing a limb than somebody who you would even recognize as transgender in a bathroom.

The transgender issue is the last grasp of them lashing out now that they have lost the Gay Marriage issue. They are pivoting away from gay issues (because approval percentages only get higher and higher of gay marriage) to transgender bathroom fights. Which is patently ridiculous, but there you have it. They need to paint some group as the bad guy, might as well be a very underrepresented one that can't defend itself well. They have to find some way to recreate 2004 and the gay marriage bans that brought out evangelicals.
 
The reason I mentioned supers was my previous position was go ahead and roll out the endrosements and seal this up. I no longer think she should do that. Wait until NJ closes, and then bye bye Birdie.
I hope that NJ goes in strong enough to end it early before California finishes counting
 

Emarv

Member
Is Shaun King always this obnoxious on Twitter? I don't follow him, but some journalists were retweeting and making fun of some of his most recent bullshit. I went to his timeline for his latest rant and jesus. What a blowhard.
 
I really really hope Clinton refuses to debate him again.

Let him yell at the clouds all he wants.

She won't debate, there's no point. It's over, the focus should be on Trump now. Sanders has focused less on Trump than Hillary focused on McCain in April/May 08. Remember much of her argument was that only she could beat McCain. Sanders points out he does well against Trump sometimes, but overall his message right now is largely aimed at attacking the democrat establishment.

I'm guessing Sanders will largely disappear after his convention speech. He didn't get his way and will take his ball and go home.
 

Wilsongt

Member
Is Shaun King always this obnoxious on Twitter? I don't follow him, but some journalists were retweeting and making fun of some of his most recent bullshit. I went to his timeline for his latest rant and jesus. What a blowhard.

He's a BernieBot?

Oh.
 
I'm not a fan of a lot of things Bill Clinton did including nafta, and deregulation but welfare reform was not one of them. Welfare was out of control in the 80s early 90s. I saw it first hand how badly it was being abused.

I knew one lady who had 5 kids because she knew she would get more welfare, of course she also owned a house in Dominican Republic.

I knew more than a few business owners and drug dealers who were getting welfare in the early 90s. I know it's annecdotal but that shit doesn't happen anymore.

The only thing that's out of control are the kinds of mostly white men leading the charge on things like welfare reform, crime bills, and other similar *structural reforms* passed off as helping people or making society better. It's total crap and minorities/oppressed groups need to stop letting these folks do it.
 
I hope that NJ goes in strong enough to end it early before California finishes counting

It will. If there's any question, she'll come out as California closes and announce she now has enough pledged and supers to be the nominee. Take the wind out of a potential win in California. At that point, no one cares what happens in California.

Sorry about it.
 
Is Shaun King always this obnoxious on Twitter? I don't follow him, but some journalists were retweeting and making fun of some of his most recent bullshit. I went to his timeline for his latest rant and jesus. What a blowhard.

Yep, I had to unfollow him. The worst. I wish I could stand the Bernie stuff coming from him, because he did some great work around BLM.
 
Is Shaun King always this obnoxious on Twitter? I don't follow him, but some journalists were retweeting and making fun of some of his most recent bullshit. I went to his timeline for his latest rant and jesus. What a blowhard.

Oh man, this is hilarious:

Shaun King @ShaunKing
Washington State has 7.2 million people. @BernieSanders won 71% of the votes. NONE of those votes count in the "popular vote totals".

Bernie isn't down 3 million votes, he's actually up 2.2 million if Washington is counted!
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Adam. Don't you think this is just like the "uneducated black vote" argument? If what you said is true, why does Sanders do so much better with the college educated vote?

He doesn't. He does better with college students. She beats him among graduates and those with higher degrees if I remember my polling right.

It will. If there's any question, she'll come out as California closes and announce she now has enough pledged and supers to be the nominee. Take the wind out of a potential win in California. At that point, no one cares what happens in California.

Sorry about it.

She needs some 75 delegates at this point. She's won it on the next round.
 
The transgender issue is the last grasp of them lashing out now that they have lost the Gay Marriage issue. They are pivoting away from gay issues (because approval percentages only get higher and higher of gay marriage) to transgender bathroom fights. Which is patently ridiculous, but there you have it. They need to paint some group as the bad guy, might as well be a very underrepresented one that can't defend itself well. They have to find some way to recreate 2004 and the gay marriage bans that brought out evangelicals.

I think the calculation is that most people are more apt to agree with the general statement that men should use the men's restroom and women should use the women's restroom. So far the polling shows there's somewhat of a split on this issue. I think the error on their part is that they've bullied on this issue.

There's a saying that you can discriminate but you can't be a jerk about it. This applies to gay marriage, where a person might not have ill feelings towards say...a friend who doesn't support gay marriage on religious grounds and outside of that is cordial to gay people. Or 40 years ago the example would be an older white person who is cordial to black people but doesn't support interracial marriage. That's where the "but I have [insert whatever] friends" defense comes from. Most people don't want to be perceived as bigoted, even when they are bigoted. Republicans taking so much glee in denigrating trans people and fighting Obama over this is going to backfire and lead to people supporting trans rights just to avoid being associated with what they perceive as bigoted behavior.
 

pigeon

Banned
Adam. Don't you think this is just like the "uneducated black vote" argument? If what you said is true, why does Sanders do so much better with the college educated vote?

Wait, I think there's an important distinction here.

The black voter argument is "Clinton wins black voters because they are uninformed."

Adam's argument is "uninformed voters are more likely to select Bernie."

Those are really different arguments!
 

Teggy

Member
Oh man, this is hilarious:



Bernie isn't down 3 million votes, he's actually up 2.2 million if Washington is counted!

Wait, we take the total population of a state and then multiply it by the caucus percentage that he won? That's a serious statement? Children, Republicans, everything?
 

Wilsongt

Member
Speaking of Bots...

What those rules state is this: if a front-runner emerges who’s unable to secure the Democratic nomination using pledged delegates alone — and note, it only takes 59 percent of the pledged delegates available to do so — superdelegates will choose a nominee based on their assessment of each candidate’s electoral viability.

Fine, said Sanders supporters.

And it was fine — for a while.

What happened next was that the Clinton campaign fell apart.

After winning more than 60 percent of the pledged delegates through March 1st, Clinton is now likely to lose the majority of pledged delegates awarded between March 2nd and June 14th — a two and a half month period that makes up roughly the final two-thirds of the Democratic nominating process.

But it isn’t just this — as striking a fact as it is — that has caused real concern about whether Clinton can win in the fall. It’s also that Clinton’s unfavorables have risen to historic levels; that Clinton performs consistently worse than Sanders against Donald Trump in both general election and battleground-state polling; that there are states (for instance, Georgia, Arizona, and Ohio) that polling shows Sanders would win and Clinton would lose in the general election, along with many others (among them New Hampshire and Pennsylvania) where Clinton is in a dead heat with Trump and Sanders wins handily; that Clinton loses independent voters to Trump while Sanders wins them overwhelmingly; that Clinton can’t draw crowds with even a fraction of the numbers or energy that Sanders’ crowds routinely have; that Clinton isn’t considered nearly as honest or trustworthy as Sanders, according to every poll of voters; and that a movement candidate will be needed to defeat Donald Trump, whereas, instead of a movement candidate, what Clinton is giving the Democrats is Al Gore 2.0.

The problem, in sum, is that Clinton is looking like a clear November loser, and Sanders a probable November winner.


That Sanders is likely to win the two-thirds of the Democratic primary that comes after Super Tuesday is just one piece of this larger picture.


The point is, both Sanders and his supporters believe they have successfully made the case that his electoral viability in November exceeds Clinton’s — and if you look at the hard data relevant to that question alone, it’s hard to argue that Sanders and his supporters don’t have the better argument to make on this score.

What happened next is that the DNC, with the collusion of the corporate media, changed all the rules.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/this-is-the-one-way-in-wh_b_10026870.html
 

studyguy

Member
It will. If there's any question, she'll come out as California closes and announce she now has enough pledged and supers to be the nominee. Take the wind out of a potential win in California. At that point, no one cares what happens in California.

Sorry about it.

So business as usual, no one actually cares about us here in California and expect us to just walk into a done deal. We're the big guy at the invited last to the party everyone ignores but calls us their best friend when asked anytime before or after.
 
So business as usual, no one actually cares about us here in California and expect us to just walk into a done deal. We're the big guy at the invited last to the party everyone ignores but calls us their best friend when asked anytime before or after.

giphy.gif


<3 you CaliGaf
 

Iolo

Member
So business as usual, no one actually cares about us here in California and expect us to just walk into a done deal. We're the big guy at the invited last to the party everyone ignores but calls us their best friend when asked anytime before or after.

I would feel bad for you, except that you voted on February 5, 2008.
 
So business as usual, no one actually cares about us here in California and expect us to just walk into a done deal. We're the big guy at the invited last to the party everyone ignores but calls us their best friend when asked anytime before or after.
It's not like that. Without Cali the electoral vote for Democrats is impossible. You guys pay for the feast every four years but it's a thankless task.
 

hawk2025

Member
So business as usual, no one actually cares about us here in California and expect us to just walk into a done deal. We're the big guy at the invited last to the party everyone ignores but calls us their best friend when asked anytime before or after.

Bro, we got Uber, Doordash, Amazon Prime Now, Teslas, self-driving cars, and all kinds of other cool shit before everyone else.


Small price to pay, I say!
 
Wait, I think there's an important distinction here.

The black voter argument is "Clinton wins black voters because they are uninformed."

Adam's argument is "uninformed voters are more likely to select Bernie."

Those are really different arguments!

Well, yes and no.

I think Bernie voters are informed on what he's offering them, definitely. I think they're (often) uninformed of how the reality of politics actually works. Because they are under informed, his lack of specifics on pretty much anything isn't a problem for them. They've never been a part of navigating the shit that it takes to get policy put through. Bernie's perfect because he's offering the perfect solution. When Hillary explains why that won't work, they immediately assume it's because she's ideologically opposed to what he's offering. That's not true. She's probably fine with everything he's offering, but she knows it's just not going to happen. If you're a jaded, political junkie you totally get that. If you're a virgin to the process, it seems like she's a sell out. Bernie gets it, why can't she!?

I don't think I explained my initial position as well as I should have. That's what I get for doing this when I'm supposed to be totally working right now.
 

Holmes

Member
The nomination will be called for Clinton when polls close in NJ, just like what happened for Obama in 2008 when South Dakota closed. She'll pick up 4 delegates in the Virgin Islands and about 40 in Puerto Rico if she has a similar margin there than she did in 2008. Then she'll be about 40-odd delegates away, assuming no supers announce. And some probably will.
 
When Cesare Borgia, Black Mamba or pigeon three of our most mature, level-headed and highly respected PoliGaffers start diablosing then we can worry. Until then cool it peeps.
Doesn't Borgia work with the Clinton Campaign? What if he's Robby Mook? Begala? In any case his level headedness is reassuring both for Clinton Campaign and everyone else.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Man some of Bernie's supporters are terrible at math. If my numbers are correct Hillary has won 55% of delegates between March 5th and today and needs 36.3% of the rest to have won more in this arbitrary two and a half month period.

She needs only 90 delegates to win at this point. A big enough win in Jersey alone puts her over.
 

Zornack

Member
She needs only 90 delegates to win at this point. A big enough win in Jersey alone puts her over.

Yeah, for sure, but even in this wild and strange "well who won the most delegates in the last two and a half months?" question Abramson poses Bernie still comes out the loser.
 

ampere

Member
I mean, I'm not a Bernie guy but if you don't know why young people like him, YOU haven't been paying attention. He speaks to their every concern. Inequality, Student Loans, frustration with overseas adventures, kids getting shitty jobs out of college.

It's single-track, it's somewhat simply stated, has decent evidence behind it. Forgive a bunch of 20 somethings who came of age between 9/11 and the Great Recession for being a little politically naive about how any of the above would get done. But don't act like the message isn't highly targeted and specifically relevant to them.

(I see this 'I don't understand why [obvious subset of voters] would vote for [obvious candidate that speaks directly to those voters with specific proposals to ease their plight]' argument and it just always strikes me as un-nuanced as the people that are being described. Dig a little deeper, folks.)

Yeah I'm with Panther here. It's not hard to see the reason for the appeal.

That's also why I largely blame Bernie for this situation, he's constantly attacking the Democrats and his supporters mostly fall in line.
 
Sorry, double post, but Dave Weigel just smacked this down on Twitter showing that yes, Caucus votes are counted in the vote totals.

I've noticed he's been doing that a lot with King lately. Glad he's calling out bullshit like that.

Wait, we take the total population of a state and then multiply it by the caucus percentage that he won? That's a serious statement? Children, Republicans, everything?

It's especially hilarious since only 26K participated in the dem caucus (from Dave Weigel's tweet) and 19K of that voted for Bernie. Really closing that 3M gap!

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=53&f=1&year=2016&elect=1
 
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