nature boy
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT6| Delete your accounts
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IAmAnAgnostic
Member
So Trump apparently has a slight lead now. However that should be reversed, once Bernie drops out.
nature boy
Member
Doesn't include the new poll.
metalslimer
Member
Regardless there has definitely been a trend towards trump. Republicans should do know how to fall in line. I guess I shouldn't be surprised but regardless if Clinton wins I wonder if he really will be the disaster downticket people were hoping for
Also Bernie needs to drop the fuck out and campaign like his damn life depended on it if he ever cared about any of his plans he's been pushing for.
Also Bernie needs to drop the fuck out and campaign like his damn life depended on it if he ever cared about any of his plans he's been pushing for.
DontBeThatGuy
Member
Country is fucked.
nature boy
Member
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Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
She'll be fine. Just has to make it until July 28th. That gives August, September, October and a little bit of November for Sanders to stump for her. If he dropped out now, he wouldn't carry his supporters with him anyway; this has to be done properly.
All these attempts to cushion-wrap Clinton aren't helping her. It just makes her seem more and more establishment in a palpably anti-establishment year. Relax, stop posting inane comments about how Sanders is secretly trying to takeover the world, and just nap until the convention or something.
Anoregon
The flight plan I just filed with the agency list me, my men, Dr. Pavel here. But only one of you!
He's clearly not very good at it.
Jack The Nipper
Banned
just, I don't think that is bad. if you are trying to make it accurate to boxing it should have them on this picture
PREACH. Great post
I was drinking that Sanders koolaid too and he kept putting salt in it until it finally tasted so shit I spit it out
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/byron-york-trump-reaches-out-to-nevertrump/article/2591894
Dear National Review,
I hope you change your mind and support my campaign and the Republican Party this November.
Thank you,
Donald J. Trump
P.S. I WILL WIN
P.P.S. Who do you want appointed to the Supreme Court?
Dear National Review,
I hope you change your mind and support my campaign and the Republican Party this November.
Thank you,
Donald J. Trump
P.S. I WILL WIN
P.P.S. Who do you want appointed to the Supreme Court?
balladofwindfishes
Member
I was teetering between Hillary and Bernie, and it was the Planned Parenthood garbage that put me firmly in Hillary's camp.
Once Bernie "goes off script" he seems to always say something really stupid that needs to be cleaned up later. I don't feel that's particularly presidential, to just have one memorized speech and everything else you say is out there.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
Stuff like this makes me think this is the high point for Trump akin to McCain getting the Palin bump. Once Hillary is official and Obama/Biden parachute in she's going to get a massive bump.
I mean, how hard is it to say "I'm upset that Planned Parenthood didn't choose to support me, but they are a great organization and do amazing things for women's health."
like, I'm 27 with little speaking experience and I ain't that dumb Berndog. smh
Snowman Prophet of Doom
Member
Yeah, I've been thinking that a Trump presidency would probably see very regular demonstrations, probably even violent ones, in most major cities.
whyamihere
Banned
Ugh. Whatever.
6 more months of this!
6 more months of this!
Thunder Monkey
Banned
I'm not going to act like this is a done deal.
There's always a chance the American people can make the completely wrong, unbelievably crazy decision of electing Trump. Always that chance...
But I must say, I'm still expecting a Dem blowout victory this fall.
Hillary 56
Trump 43
Senate
Dem 52
Rep 46
Ind 2
House
Dem 214
Rep 221
Trump being Trump, and Hillary having the support of two popular Presidents should make a hell of a show for the fall.
There's always a chance the American people can make the completely wrong, unbelievably crazy decision of electing Trump. Always that chance...
But I must say, I'm still expecting a Dem blowout victory this fall.
Hillary 56
Trump 43
Senate
Dem 52
Rep 46
Ind 2
House
Dem 214
Rep 221
Trump being Trump, and Hillary having the support of two popular Presidents should make a hell of a show for the fall.
Nah.
Right now Hillary is Reagan. Once the election starts in full force, everyone will be paying attention and pick sides. And there's a lot of evidence that most people aren't really aware of Trump right now. It's going to split fast. And it's going to be a pretty big defeat for Trump.
Carter and Clinton -- well known, establishment (relative to Reagan/Trump), started off ahead
Reagan and Trump -- political outsider, started off being dismissed and losing polls
Other than looking at the month and where the lines are, I'm not sure why you think Clinton is like Reagan. There are other reasons Carter lost that election, but that graph doesn't help me sleep better. I still think Clinton needs to go for anti-establishment/independent appeal in VP pick. That's where the momentum is.
I have an idea for a political pundit show that has monkeys just flinging poop at issues taped to a wall.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
SOMEONE CALL CNN STAT!
She's going to do worse with independents overall for now (largely white). The question is whether that rebalances a bit when the primary is over or if this is the state of the race.
Obama wasn't quite as disliked but he was also black. You have to figure out how that interacts. Then again, people that were racist voters probably disliked him anyway.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
Can you imagine Hillary as president and a Dem majority in congress? 🤗
cartoon_soldier
Member
What turnout numbers are these polls recording? Same as 2012 or higher Latino/White turnout?
If you're going to compare to that chart, Hillary looks way more like Carter. Started with a gargantuan lead, then the race tightened until the extreme Republican entertainer passed her in May.Nah.
Right now Hillary is Reagan. Once the election starts in full force, everyone will be paying attention and pick sides. And there's a lot of evidence that most people aren't really aware of Trump right now. It's going to split fast. And it's going to be a pretty big defeat for Trump.
Hillary never had a gargantuan lead in the general election.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
But no... seriously.... they can't can they?
I mean I know white people, I am white people.
But they seriously can't be stupid enough to vote for Trump can they?
For all the grief Hillary has received for her political mobility, Trump makes statements every day completely antithetical to his own positions the day before. Everything people hate about politicians is typified with his candidacy. Along with a bunch of things singularly Trump distinct.
I just... I know how racist they can be... but it's 2016. Please don't tell me we've progressed so little that this kind of candidacy can still work in 2016.
I mean I know white people, I am white people.
But they seriously can't be stupid enough to vote for Trump can they?
For all the grief Hillary has received for her political mobility, Trump makes statements every day completely antithetical to his own positions the day before. Everything people hate about politicians is typified with his candidacy. Along with a bunch of things singularly Trump distinct.
I just... I know how racist they can be... but it's 2016. Please don't tell me we've progressed so little that this kind of candidacy can still work in 2016.
whyamihere
Banned
I do wonder if that's due to some Bernie supporters still not on board yet.
User 463088
Banned
She also has a vagina which won't play well among some voters.
1980 is only useful as an example of how polls from May don't mean a lot. Trump was always going to firm up support after securing the nomination. Hillary still has a socialist anchor around her waist. Once she's got the nomination, she'll bounce back. A smart and exciting Veep choice will help her too. I'm still on the Warren train.
nature boy
Member
+ Penn. will be very tight races.
If the Dems can flip Arizona/Georgia/NC that gives them more paths.
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/05/22/battleground-tracker-clinton-trump-florida-ohio/
I think some people overestimate Sanders' effect on Clinton's polling
I expect her numbers to improve some when the primary is over, but it's been a pretty steady negative trend since 2013. What does she have to do to turn that around?
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating
I expect her numbers to improve some when the primary is over, but it's been a pretty steady negative trend since 2013. What does she have to do to turn that around?
Cesare Borgia
Banned
So tired of liberals taking scared (or like losers) in Jan-June of election years.
There aren't enough white men in the country (and in important states) to make Trump president. The democrat nominee has yet to emerge officially. It is MAY.
hammysaurusrex
Member
I'm still not sure how Warren would work out - I'm skeptical she's going to magically attract all the Sanders' independents back towards Clinton... however, I do think she'll at least be able to placate enough that it takes all the momentum out of any sort of attempt at further disruption and violence, which I think has the greater impact of damaging Clinton's number than just their lack of support in general.
edit: I still think Perez is the better choice, but I've shifted my opinion that I no longer think Warren is a bad choice
edit: I still think Perez is the better choice, but I've shifted my opinion that I no longer think Warren is a bad choice
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Even if that's true, it's making it seem unlikely to be reversed to the point there's a landslide or any of that predicted doom to the republican party.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
15 point lead when he just announced, and she's actually doing better than she did in August 2015. Looks relatively steady to me.
Either way, comparing anything to the Carter/Reagan election is absolute silliness, outside of just using it as an object lesson in polls not being reliable as future predictors.
Since 2013?
She's not going to ever have positive favorability. But her favorability among Democrats and Democratic leaners has fallen as the primary has dragged on as well, which I do attribute to Sanders (his had, at the time, fallen too). That's just what campaigning does to you, and I think that's fair.
Here's just the first result I found: http://www.alternet.org/election-20...vorability-rating-among-democrats-hit-new-low. I could do more research but I don't really like to kvetch about polls in May.
It's obvious why her favorability has tanked since 2013. Do we really need to discuss this?
AntraxSuicide
Banned
Yeah, I wonder what their sampling was for turnout and percent of total voting bloc. Because I'm pretty sure those demographic numbers are similar to Obama 2012, and we know how that turned out.
I suspect that what's happening in a lot of polls is that the popular vote will be coming from red states driving up turnout (which does nothing whatsoever for the path to 270), while slight shifts away from Republicans in certain states will make the election a foregone conclusion in late October. Like, if the GOP wants to drive up Oklahoma turnout, be my guest. But they've tapped the white, rural states by a ton, so I don't see how that's a winning strategy, popular vote be damned.
I think Hillary takes this thing in a blowout similar to Bush 41 over Dukakis.
metalslimer
Member
I wonder if Hilary lost the popular vote and won would republicans start seriously considering some electoral college "reform"
Not sure where you're seeing Sanders favorability drop. Still seems to be trending upward: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/bernie-sanders-favorable-rating
Ideally it would be Sanders dragging down her numbers and they reverse after the primary is over, but considering how steady she's been dropping since 2013 I'm worried the benghazi and email scandals are playing a bigger part than some would like to admit. And considering the level to which Sanders and Trump beat expectations, I really do think there's a lot of momentum behind anti-establishment feelings, which I would assume hurts Clinton quite a lot.
I was responding to someone that seems to blame Sanders for a negative trend that started years before he entered the race.
User 463088
Banned
I went on a rant about this a couple of days ago. (Well...not rant, just kind of explaining my thought process.)
The only Bernie supporters Hillary needs to make huge efforts to win over could be swayed, I think, with the right Veep selection....especially if she positions it correctly. If she picks someone like Warren and makes it clear that Warren will be responsible for financial industry regulation or whatever, then...ya, that would placate some people. I also think it's a shortcut to party unity.
Also, my goodness. It's freaking May people. I can find you polls from 2008 that had McCain up by 10 in Ohio as late as July. Or polls from the same timeframe that had McCain up by 8 in Florida!
It's going to be okay. But, if you're worried, reach out to your local Democratic party and get involved. We always need help. If you can spare 2 hours a week between now and election day it could make a huge difference.
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