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PoliGAF 2016 |OT6| Delete your accounts

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Al Sharpton Calls Out Bernie Campaign Manager: You Didn’t Win Black Voters ‘Even In The North’

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/al-sharp...you-didnt-win-black-voters-even-in-the-north/

One of the issues that has dogged independent Vermont Senator and Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders has been his persistently low support among black voters, which the campaign has explained as a function of factors including Hillary Clinton‘s “relationship” with the black community, her support with older black voters, and the need for black voters to get to know Sanders better. On Saturday, Rev. Al Sharpton asked campaign manager Jeff Weaver about Sanders’ anemic support with black voters, and Weaver noted that Hillary did very well in early states, but countered that Sanders “has been doing better and better with African-American voters as this process has gone along.

Sharpton is correct, but even Weaver’s claim that Bernie Sanders is “doing better and better” with black voters is incorrect. According to Reuters, Bernie has lost more than 7 points to Hillary Clinton with black voters in the past month, and even with the group Weaver cited, black voters under age 49, Clinton has widened her lead by almost six points since April.
”

People calling Jeff Weaver on his shit gives me life.
 
Placating Bernie and friends is precisely the point! If they had no bargaining power and no value, they would get nothing. He played the game and got something for it, that's what bargaining is all about -- he put his ass and his political dynasty on the line to get more representation out of it.


I'll add that I don't know where you've been all this time, but it's been a good addition to this thread. Some sharp shit there, for the most part :p

I mean by it that it'll more or less satisfy him enough regardless if it actually means anything in the end. If what Crabs says is true that'll need 2/3rds majority to veto anything then he needs all of the DNC members and some Hillary supporters. Hillary still has the advantage as she will get some of the supporter from the DNC anyway most likely. They can block anything that is deemed harmful. Either way Bernie has to play ball to get anything passed since Hill as the most influence by default. I think he was going to around 4 anyway getting one more doesn't seem much of a big difference.

I don't think it has much to to do with him having bargaining power as if he did he'll get much more out of the deal and he wouldn't accept the deal as is. I think it is to satisfy him a little bet to keep things stable. He probably doesn't have much choice, but to accept it as he can't run a third party option effectively and if he was more of an asshole; he would have no say that is not even token. He wants to influence the party the party platform is he real only option now. If anything the Nevada fiasco made it worst for him, so now he had to take what he can get or get anything out all. Crab would be right that him having a third party option would problem get him more influence, but he fucked that up with not controlling his supporters and getting rid of the idea of running a third party.
 
Gary Johnson literally sounds like my crazy uncle

I would love to see him debate Clinton or Trump, he caries himself like a rambling dude on the corner of a city street.
 

hawk2025

Member
The main thing I would note about Sanders's negotiation strategy is that, the more he plays hardball, the more his poll numbers drop.

Taking a mutually assured destruction approach might be good game theory but it's pretty terrible optics for the 60% of Sanders supporters who say they'll vote for Clinton, because presumably they don't want to destroy the Democratic Party.

So a strategy like that may just erode away his support and reduce his relevance. Arguably Clinton and the DNC should just respond with oppo dumps to peel his bloc away from him even further.

I suspect he may have underestimated the cost of brinksmanship, hence pulling out somewhat earlier than I personally expected.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Its kinda funny that the nominee of the democratic party and the guy likely to name her likely VP replacement are both under FBI investigation.

Why does this effect Kaine to be picked?
 
We killed the leader of the Taliban.

How much do leaders of terrorist organizations actually matter to these organizations being able to commit terror though? Are there even studies on this?
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Perez is a decent choice. Castro is a lightweight and Booker is a flipflop.
 

pigeon

Banned
Also, can't we get Pakistan and India to disarm?

It's kind of creepy that a terrorist indifferent state like Pakistan has nuclear weapons...

How do you plan on convincing a nuclear power to give up nuclear weapons? There's a reason the focus is always on stopping people before they get nukes.
 
Right. And in this world, how do you fund primaries at all? They're ludicrously expensive. If you agree that closed primaries means that parties ought to keep the bill for said primaries, and you also agree that parties would be unable to run primaries (I mean, they probably could for presidential nominees, just about, but local candidacies would be beyond them) without this funding, aren't you just saying you'd rather see primaries abolished?



No. You're really, really not reading my posts. Let's say I live in Germany. I'm rightwing in this world, and normally I'd vote CDU. However, I think the CDU's policies are less good than I might otherwise want. As a result, I can vote for the FDP. As a result, the FDP gets more seats. The CDU have to compromise and offer the FDP at least some of their policies, because if they don't, the FDP will not go into coalition with them. The CDU also have to commit to this, because if at any point in the coalition they start reneging on this promise, the FDP can pull out.

Contrast: let's say I live in America. I'm leftwing in this world, and normally I'd vote <central Democrat> in the primaries. However, I think Clinton's policies are less good than I might otherwise want. As a result, I can vote for Sanders in the primaries. However, Sanders doesn't win. Clinton becomes the nominee. Clinton does not have to compromise, because she is the nominee regardless of what Sanders does or does not do from that stage on. The only reason she might want to compromise, is to make sure Sanders endorses her for the presidential. However, she has no reason to commit to this, because once she actually is president, he cannot affect her capacity to retain office from that point.

In the first scenario, politics ends up being consensual. Sectional interests are represented in proportion to their electoral support. The CDU as the larger party will get the lion's share of policy implementation, but the FDP will still be able to guarantee concessions. In the second scenario, politics ends up being absolutist. A 49% minority is not guaranteed to get a single concession.



See above. Proportional systems foster a fundamentally different type of politics.

Your assumption here is that the FDP would actually get those votes here as a separate party instead of a small coalition within the Democratic party (or GOP, I guess since you went with right wing for the example). I disagree with this. I don't think, even with a different system in place, that Sanders or people like him would ever get more votes than the Green Party gets now. It's just not where politics in the US is at all, and so I don't get the point you're making.

As to the 49% mark, you have easy threats to make. If you find a caucus within the 51% party that you think you can pry away, then you do that, and win the next time. Caucuses within parties then use that leverage to get what they want. If people choose not to make those demands, that's on them, not the system. Socialists and other far-left groups could make those threats, but I think we both know that no one would care. This plays out within the party, or at the government level (where in proportional systems, you have the exact same arguments, just slightly more publicly).

And if the primary is completely just about party business, then sure, no state funding. If it's too expensive, then we'll go back to party operatives choosing candidates. As a matter of principle, only people in Virginia should vote on Virginian business, only people invited to a lunch get to decide on the menu, and only people within a party should get to decide party business.

I don't think this is true. I mean, you have to admit the prospect of Sanders running as an independent, or even refusing to endorse Clinton, is worrying. As I was saying to pigeon in another thread, it's a game of chicken, and I think Sanders swerved too early.

Again, the point is not to actually run as an independent. The point is to make Clinton worry he will to get as many concessions as possible. I don't actually want him to run as an independent. It would be a terrible idea, I don't want President Trump. However, if I were him, I'd be dropping hints about it, maybe have something leak suggesting I was looking at the legal proceedings for getting my name on the ballot, have an aide accidentally suggest it, stuff like that. If Clinton thinks that Sanders will back her come what may, she has absolutely no reason to do anything. Got to put the fear of Trump into her to get any concessions.

Clinton clearly has at least some worry either that he'll run as an independent or refuse to endorse her, or he wouldn't have been offered what he has. Running as an independent might be stretching credibility, but straight up refusing to endorse and making a song and dance about it is certainly credible - I've seen plenty of you in this thread worrying about it.

I agree that Sanders has some leverage, but it's not after the convention at all. No one cares about 3rd party candidates, and it's the easiest logical step in the world to know that Sanders won't run 3rd party anyway (it wouldn't matter either against Trump). The real leverage is allowing the GE pivot earlier, and that leverage has a time limit. He's probably going to lose CA, certainly by more than he needs to win it by, and so once CA votes, he can promptly fuck back off to Vermont.

Until then, he can offer his surrender, which allows the DNC to stop wasting time on the guy. That's his only real leverage, and it's gone on June 7th. So he's only got now to offer the DNC anything (which they don't have to care about since he's a loser), and he's right to take what he can.

Edit: And I realize now that all of the posts that made me want to respond were from Crab, so I'm glad you're here! Things had slowed down recently.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
If people are telling her she's gonna need Bernie supporters in November then they're most definitely choosing Warren first or Perez.

I hope it isn't Warren, moving her out of the position she's in doesn't seem like a good idea. Perez would be a good move for party unity, I think. I mean, he's obviously not a Sanderite, but he had a sterling track record in the Labour department and it would be a pretty good concession gesture, all things considered. I can't think of too many alternatives I'd prefer that Clinton would accept.
 
Funny to see people panic and then not over Sanders.

Sanders and most of his supporters will come home. Trust me. June 7th can't come soon enough!

As I argued before, the only downside I see long term from Sanders is a handful of new, young voters becoming disillusioned. It's essentially why Dems lost in 2000.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Is there not a younger Dem female we can put up?

Picking someone younger probably isn't a good idea. Statistically, it is improbable Clinton will win a second term given there are very few points in American history when a party managed to make four consecutive wins. Being attached as VP to a losing ticket isn't great for your career. Safe pair of hands/appeal to unity candidate seems to be what Clinton should be looking for.
 
Picking someone younger probably isn't a good idea. Statistically, it is improbable Clinton will win a second term given there are very few points in American history when a party managed to make four consecutive wins. Being attached as VP to a losing ticket isn't great for your career. Safe pair of hands/appeal to unity candidate seems to be what Clinton should be looking for.

These types of analysis is pretty bad. There's not enough data point that matter to say anything.

There's no actual good argument why Hillary can't win 2 terms.

In a world in 2020 where the economy is doing fine or at the very least not worse or getting worse and the world isn't in chaos and Ted Cruz is the nominee, why would she lose?

Demographics continue to help the Democrats, as well.

Saying she'd win or lose at this point is dumb. She'd have an inherent advantage of being an incumbent and that's all we know right now.
 
I really don't like Castro, I feel like if you're gonna get a Latino VP then they should be able to speak Spanish so they can appeal to voters or help communicate with them. It just feels like there would be a ton of instances of a Latino voter trying to talk Spanish to Castro and then him being like.. Uhh sorry..
 

hawk2025

Member
Picking someone younger probably isn't a good idea. Statistically, it is improbable Clinton will win a second term given there are very few points in American history when a party managed to make four consecutive wins. Being attached as VP to a losing ticket isn't great for your career. Safe pair of hands/appeal to unity candidate seems to be what Clinton should be looking for.

The predictive power of that test is probably close to zero.

There just plain isn't enough data and far too many confounding factors to bother with using it.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Your assumption here is that the FDP would actually get those votes here as a separate party instead of a small coalition within the Democratic party (or GOP, I guess since you went with right wing for the example). I disagree with this. I don't think, even with a different system in place, that Sanders or people like him would ever get more votes than the Green Party gets now. It's just not where politics in the US is at all, and so I don't get the point you're making.

I mean, this is obviously an otherworld hypothetical, but I'm still confident you're talking total nonsense right now if you think that under a proportional system that a more leftwing party wouldn't talk votes away from the Democrats. People strongly dislike the established parties, it is implausible to suppose they would continue to vote for them in the same numbers given an alternative choice.

As to the 49% mark, you have easy threats to make. If you find a caucus within the 51% party that you think you can pry away, then you do that, and win the next time. Caucuses within parties then use that leverage to get what they want. If people choose not to make those demands, that's on them, not the system. Socialists and other far-left groups could make those threats, but I think we both know that no one would care. This plays out within the party, or at the government level (where in proportional systems, you have the exact same arguments, just slightly more publicly).

So, your reply is "well, if you got 49%, just get 51% next time", which sure, is true, but kind of misses the point. You shouldn't have to get 51% of the vote just to have influence; that's not a healthy political system. You ought to see a compromise, where, say, a 10% candidate, a 40% candidate, and a 50% candidate get to influence 10%, 40%, and 50% of the eventual platform - which is exactly what does happen in systems which have executive coalitions, and there's a long history of it working exactly this way. That creates a healthier democracy.

I agree that Sanders has some leverage, but it's not after the convention at all. No one cares about 3rd party candidates, and it's the easiest logical step in the world to know that Sanders won't run 3rd party anyway (it wouldn't matter either against Trump). The real leverage is allowing the GE pivot earlier, and that leverage has a time limit. He's probably going to lose CA, certainly by more than he needs to win it by, and so once CA votes, he can promptly fuck back off to Vermont.

Until then, he can offer his surrender, which allows the DNC to stop wasting time on the guy. That's his only real leverage, and it's gone on June 7th. So he's only got now to offer the DNC anything (which they don't have to care about since he's a loser), and he's right to take what he can.

Edit: And I realize now that all of the posts that made me want to respond were from Crab, so I'm glad you're here! Things had slowed down recently.

I mean, he has multiple forms of leverage. One is threatening to run as an independent, one is refusing to endorse, one is threatening to drag this out as long as possible, etc. Each has different degrees of credibility. I think Clinton is most worried by the second; if you were right and it were the third, he'd have conceded now he has made his bargain, and he hasn't. So I don't think the evidence supports you on this one.
 
Now that Scalia is gone, Clarence Thomas is our new national embarrassment

The Supreme Court rebuked the Georgia courts Monday for ignoring blatant evidence of racial bias when prosecutors deliberately excluded blacks from a jury that would later impose the death penalty against a young black man accused of murdering a white woman.

The 7-1 decision overturned the Georgia Supreme Court and told its judges to consider whether a new trial is warranted in the nearly 30-year-old case. His death sentence could be set aside as a result.

Chief Justice John G. Roberts described as "nonsense" the prosecutors' claims that they excluded several blacks from the jury for legitimate reasons.


It is our "firm conviction," he said, that the prosecutors were "motivated in substantial part by race" when they struck two black citizens from the jury. "Two peremptory strikes on the basis of race are two more than the Constitution allows," he said.

The Georgia case has been closely watched because it revealed new evidence from old court files on how prosecutors secretly focused on the race of the potential juries..

Justice Clarence Thomas dissented alone. He said Foster had confessed to the murder of the elderly white woman, and he questioned why &#8220;the court affords a death-row inmate another opportunity to relitigate his long-final conviction.&#8221; Thomas said the prosecutors appeared to have rejected several black women for the jury because they believed the women would not vote for a death sentence.

But Chief Justice Roberts said files revealed during one of Foster&#8217;s appeals showed the prosecutors had carefully tracked the blacks in the jury pool as &#8220;B#1&#8221; and &#8221;B#2&#8221; and so on. On one file was marked &#8220;NO. No black Church,&#8221; suggesting blacks should be excluded if they mentioned their church.
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-court-juries-racial-bias-20160523-snap-story.html
 

pigeon

Banned
I really don't like Castro, I feel like if you're gonna get a Latino VP then they should be able to speak Spanish so they can appeal to voters or help communicate with them. It just feels like there would be a ton of instances of a Latino voter trying to talk Spanish to Castro and then him being like.. Uhh sorry..

Man, I didn't think of this and it would be awful and become a meme so fast.

Castro better get his ass on Duolingo if he wants a federal office.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
The predictive power of that test is probably close to zero.

There just plain isn't enough data and far too many confounding factors to bother with using it.

Well, I don't think you have to restrict things to American politics in this particular case; some things are universal. If you look at developed democracies in general, there's a pretty clear relationship between duration in office and electoral success - improved electoral performance is very rare, significantly so, and there's some pretty intuitive reasons as to why that is - people tend to punish governments more than they appoint oppositions, and twelve years is a long time to go without accruing some failure that voters perceive as worthy of punishing. Obviously there are confounding factors and thus high variance, but I think you can at least confidently say that you would expect Clinton 2020 to do worse than Clinton 2016.

Put it this way: if I were a piece of hot young Democratic talent eyeing up the presidency at some point in the future, I wouldn't want to be hitching my rope to USS Clinton.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
CjK0s96UgAEuyaV.jpg:large
 
I'm skeptical of Bernie will endorse formally. I say he will just say he'll vote for her. Besides an Obama endorsement is far, far more important than one from Sanders as most of his supporters will support her in the end and Obama endorsement will overshadow Bernie's.
 
Did YouGov only sample white, fully abled, non-LGBT, non-Jewish men in Florida in this poll?

CjEXGjRWEAIZn1O.jpg


Outside of that specific group, what people think that Trump "tells it like it is"?
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
I'm skeptical of Bernie will endorse formally. I say he will just say he'll vote for her. Besides an Obama endorsement is far, far more important than one from Sanders as most of his supporters will support her in the end and Obama endorsement will overshadow Bernie's.

I don't know, Sanders reaches a niche that Obama can't. I mean, obviously Obama's endorsement is more important overall, but I'd hope Sanders might be able to bring some of the low-income white males with him that both Obama and Clinton have historically struggled to reach. More Democratic votes is always good; I do want him to give a firm endorsement (when the time is right).
 

Crayons

Banned
I agree on the Castro Spanish thing, would be pretty bad if our first latino VP couldn't speak spanish.

And I'm a latino who can't speak Spanish
 
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