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[Bonen no Max'd]

If we're going to keep doing Rove-style electoral politics (ignore the other side, just get your base out) then symbolism and meat for your base is super important. This means that pretty much every purple/blue state Democrat should be totally focused on placating the base and having a spine, so that all those voters just show up. When your base thinks the opposition is a fascist movement growing and consolidating power, it's probably not the best idea to try and seem bipartisan (obviously, Manchin, Heitkamp, and Donnely don't have bases that think those things).

If our goal is Clinton-style electoral politics, then triangulation to gain votes from the other side is a rational decision. But I don't see much evidence that Clinton-style electoral strategy is going to be really effective in the future. The number of people who sit going "hmmm which side makes the more compelling argument" is consistently dwindling.

Most people in here just want Rove-style politics anyways and the base is tired of triangulation.

 

[Cybit]

Who, though? McCain? Graham? Lol

Portman.

Remember who shit on the Ohio GOP? Even after he won?

Payback can be a bitch.

This is why Gorsuch should be confirmed. This isn't the hill to die on. If it was Pryor, I wouldn't be saying this.

From this: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...uld-take-it/?tid=sm_tw&utm_term=.5b4aedb813b3

If you are worried about legitimate authoritarianism for the next four years, finding federalist judges is probably pretty high up there on the to-do list. (If you are just wanting your turn at being authoritarian, then he's not good)

If DeVos actually fails the vote, then it means that moderate GOP senators ARE feeling the kind of political pressure that usually we only see the NRA put on Senators.

Which means that the protests ARE working and Democrats need to focus on appealing to the protesters.

Trump trying to hide the EOs from Congress while using Congressional staff was a pretty big eff you moment, and Collins / Murkowski have always been moderate. The protests themselves weren't aimed at DeVos, but the calls they're getting from their constituents about DeVos are what is driving it. Don't conflate the protests with DeVos screwing up her hearing, being wildly unqualified, and moderate Republicans feeling hometown pressure.

 

[Chris R]

Why're all these senators shook? No one will care about these appointment votes. Are you gonna get an attack ad on not voting for Betsy DeVos of all people?

"Senator blahblahblah questioned the moral judgement of our glorious leader by not approving 100% of his appointments. Can you really trust them to vote the right way when we finally get the chance to (abolish abortion|reinstitute slavery|lock her up)"

 

[Retromelon]

you'd think a senator named coons would be republican

 

[kirblar]

If we're going to keep doing Rove-style electoral politics (ignore the other side, just get your base out) then symbolism and meat for your base is super important. This means that pretty much every purple/blue state Democrat should be totally focused on placating the base and having a spine, so that all those voters just show up. When your base thinks the opposition is a fascist movement growing and consolidating power, it's probably not the best idea to try and seem bipartisan (obviously, Manchin, Heitkamp, and Donnely don't have bases that think those things).

If our goal is Clinton-style electoral politics, then triangulation to gain votes from the other side is a rational decision. But I don't see much evidence that Clinton-style electoral strategy is going to be really effective in the future. The number of people who sit going "hmmm which side makes the more compelling argument" is consistently dwindling.

Most people in here just want Rove-style politics anyways and the base is tired of triangulation.

And Senators are widely immune to this because they only have to worry about their state and can tell the other 49 to kick rocks.

 

[Sirpopopop]

https://thinkprogress.org/obama-law...in-supreme-court-93c70ad1d77a?gi=6b0eaeb8eb7e

As a private lawyer, he's representing corporate cases that will be argued in front of the supreme court soon.

If you're going to criticize lawyers for working at large law firms, you are going to have a long list... You could attack many human rights/activist lawyers for the same crime. The legal field is rather incestuous. It's one of the reasons I got out.

Regardless, Neal Katyal would win cases just fine without arguing for the pick. This probably has more to do with someone from the "respectable legal class" of people who work as government lawyers/corporate law (there's a big intersection there) sticking up for one of their own. The Supreme Court usually has an idea of how they are going to decide when they pick up a case. The rest is just theater.

 

[RastaMentality]

@mkraju: In a bit of maneuvering, McConnell moving to DeVos before Sessions because they need his vote to save her nomination

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/826887157369417728

 

[jtb]

And Senators are widely immune to this because they only have to worry about their state and can tell the other 49 to kick rocks.

All politics is national now and this is more true of the Senate than any other office at the moment, I think. The ability for politicians to insulate themselves from that has been waning dramatically in recent years.

If you're going to criticize lawyers for working at large law firms, you are going to have a long list...

Neal Katyal would win cases just fine without arguing for the pick. This probably has more to do with someone from the "respectable legal class" of people who work as government lawyers/corporate law (there's a big intersection there) sticking up for one of their own.

Not criticizing him, criticizing his op-ed.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

you'd think a senator named coons would be republican

I chuckled.

And Senators are widely immune to this because they only have to worry about their state and can tell the other 49 to kick rocks.

Every single Senate winner in 2016 was from the same party as the person who won the top of the ticket.

 

[B-Dubs]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/826887157369417728

Yea, if they didn't do this Collins and Murkowski would have been enough to kill DeVos's nomination. It's why we still need one more.

 

[Crocodile]

I'm calling Portman and all I'm getting is a busy signal instead of an opportunity to leave a message like normal. I guess that's a good sign?

EDIT: Is the Sessions and Devos final votes today? Is it just straight up to late to stop the former?

 

[tedrotheredro]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/826887157369417728

Maneuvering as quickly as a turtle can.

 

[Chumley]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/826887157369417728

fuck

 

[B-Dubs]

fuck

No, it's fine. We still only need one more vote.

 

[smokeymicpot]

GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski says constituent calls to her office against DeVos were a major reason why she is voting against her nomination

https://twitter.com/Mirandacgreen/status/826883841738625027

Calling does work.

 

[ezekial45]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/826887157369417728

This guy is the worst, such a vile creature.

 

[Cybit]

If you are in Ohio call Portman

Also, Gorsuch is pretty widely respected by most judges, and I do think a lot of judges see Trump nominating someone who is very anti-executive power as an unintentional godsend. Gorsuch would almost always side against Trump when it comes to pushing the limits of executive power, which is probably many judges' and lawyers' overriding concern after the events following the immigration EO.

 

[Chris R]

GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski says constituent calls to her office against DeVos were a major reason why she is voting against her nomination

https://twitter.com/Mirandacgreen/status/826883841738625027

Calling does work.

There were a ton of people protesting outside her offices here in Alaska too. Not too cold but still good on them.

 

[Doc Holliday]

This guy is the worst, such a vile creature.

The man is political genius. Anyone who can get stay in the senate for that long with that face, his policies and personality, has to have talent.

 

[jtb]

I don't trust any SCOTUS originalist when it comes to walking the talk on "executive power" for a Republican president.

It's a total lost cause, but I'm not looking for (or seeing) silver linings here. Just a super young, conservative hard-liner who we're going to be stuck with for 40 years.

 

[mo60]

If you are in Ohio call Portman

Also, Gorsuch is pretty widely respected by most judges, and I do think a lot of judges see Trump nominating someone who is very anti-executive power as an unintentional godsend. Gorsuch would almost always side against Trump when it comes to pushing the limits of executive power, which is probably many judges' and lawyers' overriding concern after the events following the immigration EO.

So trump nominated someone that is the complete opposite of him in some areas This is interesting? I wonder what Gorsuch thinks about the immigration EO?

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

Shelley Moore-Capito probably isn't a bad senator to call (if you're from WV, of course), either. Could easily see her swinging the other way on this one

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Gorsuch will never rule against Trump's executive overreaches.

All Republicans are complicit.

 

[studyguy]

I don't trust any SCOTUS originalist when it comes to walking the talk on "executive power" for a Republican president.

It's a total lost cause, but I'm not looking for (or seeing) silver linings here. Just a super young, conservative hard-liner who we're going to be stuck with for 40 years.

Look on the bright side, he'll be dead when most of us are almost dead!

 

[nature boy]

Barb
‏@bbecker8734

@jonfavs Just off phone with Flake's DC office. Advised he will be issuing press release later today. Expressed opposition. Keep calling!

.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Called Crapo and Risch about DeVos and actually got a hold of them this time, I'm sure they'll be shitbags but I did my duty anyways.

 

[Cybit]

I don't trust any SCOTUS originalist when it comes to walking the talk on "executive power" for a Republican president.

It's a total lost cause, but I'm not looking for (or seeing) silver linings here. Just a super young, conservative hard-liner who we're going to be stuck with for 40 years.

Well, that's the thing, he's been consistent about walking the talk - see below. He's also pretty pro-4th amendment (which is 180 degrees from "law and order" like Trump talks about)

So trump nominated someone that is the complete opposite of him in some areas This is interesting? I wonder what Gorsuch thinks about the immigration EO?

It was said he more or less outsourced the SCOTUS decision to conservative groups like the Federalist, and so he probably didn't realize that they would have a bunch of differences. On top of it, he promised to nominate someone like Scalia, and this guy is Scalia like except not a dick. (Scalia was also anti-federal government power, but since we had Clinton and Obama as presidents under him, it worked against us)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...mp-gave-democrats-a-gift-they-should-take-it/

Here’s President Obama’s acting solicitor general, Neal Katyal, in the New York Times today:

In particular, he has written opinions vigorously defending the paramount duty of the courts to say what the law is, without deferring to the executive branch’s interpretations of federal statutes, including our immigration laws.

In a pair of immigration cases, De Niz Robles v. Lynch and Gutierrez-Brizuela v. Lynch, Judge Gorsuch ruled against attempts by the government to retroactively interpret the law to disfavor immigrants. In a separate opinion in Gutierrez-Brizuela, he criticized the legal doctrine that federal courts must often defer to the executive branch’s interpretations of federal law, warning that such deference threatens the separation of powers designed by the framers.

A proven record of standing up to the executive branch when it oversteps its authority on immigration — that seems pretty important and relevant right now.

 

[KirbYuuYuu]

There were a ton of people protesting outside her offices here in Alaska too. Not too cold but still good on them.

It helps that there were people outside our state that called our senator

 

[kirblar]

Now I really want them to blow up the fillibuster in order to nominate this guy. What a pyrrhic victory.

 

[BronzeWolf]

R-Texas Lamar Smith releases congress science committee statement

https://science.house.gov/news/pres...committee-announces-priorities-115th-congress


House Democrats urge removal of Bannondorf

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/insi...il/story?id=45154409&cid=social_twitter_abcnp

 

[Crocodile]

Left a message for Portman. As always it came out more rambly than it sounded in my head. I said I appreciated that he criticized the immigration EO but that it was embarrassing and creul and didn't make us safer and that it was a Muslim ban. Said Senators need to check Trump so he stops doing dumb shit. Said the can do that by voting against cabinet picks. Called out Devos as incompetent, Price + Pruitt for conflict of interest and Sessions because of bad Civil Rights + Voting Rights record and because I'm skeptical he can be independent since he campaigned with Trump and that seems more important now than ever.

 

[Cybit]

Now I really want them to blow up the fillibuster in order to nominate this guy. What a pyrrhic victory.

It's why I'm ambivalent whether the Dems try to filibuster him. If they think Trump is that gullible, you almost want to encourage him to get someone like Gorsuch instead of someone like Pryor.

 

[kirblar]

It's why I'm ambivalent whether the Dems try to filibuster him. If they think Trump is that gullible, you almost want to encourage him to get someone like Gorsuch instead of someone like Pryor.

If they nuke it, they're not switching horses midstream.

Trump's ego will not allow it. He doesn't understand who he's putting up- his Interior secretary pick is anti-selling land off!

 

[Cybit]

If they nuke it, they're not switching horses midstream.

Trump's ego will not allow it. He doesn't understand who he's putting up- his Interior secretary pick is anti-selling land off!

McConnell is smart enough to just nuke it for SCOTUS picks and point out that a Dem Senate (IIRC) nuked it for both non-SCOTUS judges and cabinet nominees (something we sure would like to have now, admittedly). I'm ambivalent because I'm not sure nuking just the SCOTUS aspect of the filibuster is particularly a big deal, and since we don't control the Senate, we're just deciding how best to get run over in this situation.

As for Gorsuch - reminder that the buzzfeed article floating around is once again, complete bullshit

https://www.popehat.com/2017/02/01/gorsuch-buzzfeed-and-the-machinery-of-death/

Buzzfeed's take on this is very misleading. One short paragraph in the middle might lead a careful reader familiar with appellate procedure to realize that Gorsuch and his colleagues did not coin the terms "isolated mishap" or "innocent misadventure," but the headline and thrust of the article are calculated to imply falsely that Gorsuch chose those terms to characterize the botched execution. It is inevitable that's the way Buzzfeed's headline will be read and distributed through its viral channels. And so the nation gets imperceptibly dumber.

I do object to Buzzfeed's hacky attempt to discredit the nominee. It would be nice if we all told the truth about nominees. But mostly I object because Buzzfeed is contributing to the whitewashing of non-partisan evils in the pursuit of partisan ends. Buzzfeed, which would like for you to see Gorsuch as an extremist conservative stereotypically indifferent to human suffering, conceals that the opinion in question was written by an Obama appointee and joined by another Obama appointee. The point isn't that decisions must be right if they are bipartisan; the point is that a wide array of horrible things are subject to bipartisan approval, and feckless partisanship conceals that.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I thought the White House was supposed to have a thing at 4:00 EST where they said if we were invading Yemen now or not.

Reminder that Trump is *obsessed* with the idea of sneak attacks and will likely try to launch an invasion of Yemen secretly (it will leak immediately and be a disaster, but that will be attempt).

Cybit, bless your heart thinking that Gorsuch will stand up to Trump after McCain voted to confirm Tillerson.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

I have no idea how silver the lining is with Gorsuch--regardless, they should filibuster him anyway. Because he shouldn't even have had the opportunity. There is zero chance of him getting yanked for someone else, so we either have an 8-person court until the next election or the filibuster gets nuked, the Republicans own everything that happens afterward and maybe Gorsuch surprises us a little. I can't call it win-win but it's the least-losing position to take.

 

[whyamihere]

Heller is a yes on DeVos.

Looks like that's it.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Cybit, bless your heart thinking that Gorsuch will stand up to Trump after McCain voted to confirm Tillerson.

Is this supposed to make sense?

 

[kirblar]

I have no idea how silver the lining is with Gorsuch--regardless, they should filibuster him anyway. Because he shouldn't even have had the opportunity. There is zero chance of him getting yanked for someone else, so we either have an 8-person court until the next election or the filibuster gets nuked, the Republicans own everything that happens afterward and maybe Gorsuch surprises us a little. I can't call it win-win but it's the least-losing position to take.

Yup.

Nuke it so the focus is on the GOP and not people pretending the Dems have power.

 

[Chris R]

Heller is a yes on DeVos.

Looks like that's it.

People of Nevada should start the recall process

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Is this supposed to make sense?

No Republicans, even Republicans who have nothing to lose by going against Trump (McCain will retire after this term), will go against Trump even if it means throwing away their core values in the process.

 

[kirblar]

People of Nevada should start the recall process

....he's an R?

 

[Chris R]

....he's an R?

I didn't say it would be successful

 

[Cybit]

I thought the White House was supposed to have a thing at 4:00 EST where they said if we were invading Yemen now or not.

Reminder that Trump is *obsessed* with the idea of sneak attacks and will likely try to launch an invasion of Yemen secretly (it will leak immediately and be a disaster, but that will be attempt).

Cybit, bless your heart thinking that Gorsuch will stand up to Trump after McCain voted to confirm Tillerson.

I'm hoping judges tend to be more principled than politicians - Roberts could have killed ACA and didn't, while Kennedy's been the swing vote on a lot of decisions for the GOP and the Democrats.

Heller is a yes on DeVos.

Looks like that's it.

Damn.

Is this supposed to make sense?

Not sure.

Yup.

Nuke it so the focus is on the GOP and not people pretending the Dems have power.

This is the upside to nuking the filibuster - saddling the GOP with all the responsibility. However, you also give them borderline unchecked power, which they can do a lot of harm with, harm I'm not immediately comfortable inflicting on those who are already disadvantaged.

 

[kirblar]

They already have unchecked power since they can kill the fillibuster at their leisure. Remove the charade.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

This is the upside to nuking the filibuster - saddling the GOP with all the responsibility. However, you also give them borderline unchecked power, which they can do a lot of harm with, harm I'm not immediately comfortable inflicting on those who are already disadvantaged.

Why does this matter when they'll just nuke the filibuster when we use it later?

 

[hydragonwarrior]

The man is political genius. Anyone who can get stay in the senate for that long with that face, his policies and personality, has to have talent.

Yeah, evil political talent is still talent.

 

[Cybit]

No Republicans, even Republicans who have nothing to lose by going against Trump (McCain will retire after this term), will go against Trump even if it means throwing away their core values in the process.

Judges tend to be conservative or liberal, not Republican or Democrat. Ask the Republicans about Souter and Roberts if you don't believe me.

They already have unchecked power since they can kill the fillibuster at their leisure. Remove the charade.

There is that - but I'm worried there are longer-term consequences about polarization and a government that pendulum swings heavily every 4-8 years that have been hidden by the filibuster that I'm not smart enough to see. Hence my ambivalence about the whole thing, it doesn't particularly matter to me one way or the other.

 

[kirblar]

Polarization is happening whether we like it or not.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Did Clinton vote on Salazar, or vice versa. Did either vote on other Obama picks. Did Kerry vote on other picks in 2009.

It seems a conflict for Sessions to vote. Not that the GOP actually cares.