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PoliGAF 2017 |OT1| From Russia with Love
- Thread starter ItWasMeantToBe19
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Spoiled Milk
Banned
These are measurements of approval percentages, thus the only appropriate graphical tool is one that preserves proportions. Axes don't always have to start at zero, for instance wherever a delta is the most important measure, but in this case it is misleading.
DNC chair and House Speaker are two wildly different jobs with wildly different skillsets required.
If he gets the DNC job and does a good job, keep him there.
To be completely honest, none of us thought she would track so far to the left when she was put in Clinton's Senate seat. I know I was disappointed Carolyn Kennedy didn't get the seat at the time, but now I'm not sure she'd have been better than Gillibrand. She deserves to have the left like her after all she's done in the Senate, she's been fantastic.
RIP CNN, Trump is about to unleash his beautiful Twitter.
Were's the approval rating for LBJ?
Box of Kittens
Banned
Yeah but there was a normal-sized polling error in the election so these numbers are completely meaningless. Besides, how can you determine the opinions of a nation of 300 million people without talking to every single one of them?
BronzeWolf
Banned
RIP CNN, Trump is about to unleash his beautiful Twitter.
heh, alt-approval coming. Main question revealed:
Do you approve of the president fighting for your country and denfending your interests?
Yes
No, I am a traitor
You can't really give him one since he wasn't elected originally. You'll notice Ford isn't listed either, for likely the same reason.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
This was pretty interesting. I remember reading (somewhere, I think it was pre-election) that Gillibrand is actually extraordinarily lucky in her career. She was an '06 wave Blue Dog that almost certainly would have been wiped out in 2010, but because she got appointed to the Senate she has a very real chance at the presidency.
I'm not a huge fan of her and I don't think she's our best choice for 2020. She's Hillary Lite, which includes her lacking some of Hillary's flaws but also I think Hillary's strengths. She might be better at connecting with rural white working class people though, since that used to be her constituency, however briefly. Being consistent in opposing Trump does mean she'd probably have a good shot at activating the newly awoken activist base though.
I understand that. I still think Ellison looks like a strong leader and anti-Trump voice, and I said if Perez wins, not Ellison. Like, if Ellison isn't DNC chair, then we should use his talents elsewhere.
thehypocrite
Member
But LBJ won an election in his own right unlike Ford.
Hi. Long time lurker here.
I was wondering what you guys think of the package that the Japanese prime minister is supposed to present to Trump.
It seems like it could be a easy slam dunk for him if he acts right
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSKBN15I0RS
I was wondering what you guys think of the package that the Japanese prime minister is supposed to present to Trump.
It seems like it could be a easy slam dunk for him if he acts right
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSKBN15I0RS
BronzeWolf
Banned
Watch Trump fuck it up
thehypocrite
Member
But the scales are linear. The context of the graph is contrast it follows it would highlight that.
Box of Kittens
Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Reagan was a radical conservative who wanted to abolish Social Security and Medicare and was a giant racist, he was only elected because Carter was going through a bad economy and Carter was just bad at the job.
But 5% growth under Reagan got people to change their minds about him.
It wasn't really shifting Overton Windows, it was just the 5% yearly GDP growth.
A lot of philosophies can become popular under 5% yearly growth!
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
I don't want be all "but what about the white men" but where is Sherrod Brown there?
It was just more notable because Reagan only won 51% of the vote. The EC makes it look like a bloodbath but that was mostly caused by the left abandoning Carter for Anderson last minute.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
It's really not. All you have to do is look at the axes' labels to see they don't start at 0, and you're done. By contrast, starting at 0 for something clustered around the 40-60 range just means a third of your graph is wasted on space that doesn't contain any relevant information.
vs. Franken vs. Booker vs. who the hell knows
BronzeWolf
Banned
A better graph would start from 50% or something and see how they deviate from that
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
If it started at 50, you wouldn't see Trump's at all. There would just be a blank space.
Poetic, perhaps, but not terribly useful.
EDIT: Unless you mean negative bars. That'd be a neat way to present it, I agree.
thehypocrite
Member
Then Trump gets left out, unless that was the point, lol
nature boy
Member
Dunno if already posted worth posting it again:
BronzeWolf
Banned
You would graph the difference between 50% and the approval rating.
That would be interesting
Brawndo Addict
Banned
Uhh, you could have 50% in the middle as the baseline and have the graph go up and down.
Third Strike
Member
I don't see him making it that far if Kasich runs in 2018 and wins. If Kasich doesn't run, and/or Brown wins in 2018, then I can see Brown running in 2020. Though, honestly, I think he would work better as a Vice President running mate.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
Obviously him winning in 2018 is a prereq for his presidential run, but someone here (Aaron I think?) pointed out that the Ohio GOP is mad at him for not endorsing Trump and are trying to marginalize his remaining tenure and block him from the party, so he might not run for the Senate. I also think he might try and primary Trump in 4 years if Trump's approval rating keeps plummeting.
I think he'd make a great VP choice for Duckworth if she gets the nomination though.
RastaMentality
Banned
to come out with that after all the "a woman will never run for another 2 decades!" stuff will be great.
Mobius and pet octopus
Member
Dunno if already posted worth posting it again:
"my hands are bigger than that! dishonest media!"
I'm pretty sure that Cuomo is going to run in 2020 as well. He's definitely a corporate democrat the likes of which people accused Hillary of being so I wouldn't expdct him to get very far. But hey, you never know. He seems to be speaking up about the right sort of issues to energize the left like the free tuition and muslim ban plus he has a solid track record of getting things done. Could do better than we think.
Third Strike
Member
That's reassuring to hear.
I wonder how far Kasich would get in 2020 if he did primary Trump. On one hand, that would be a humiliating blow to Trump, especially since there's only been one president in US history that was denied the nomination to a second term. On the other hand, Kasich winning would probably elevate him to Reagan status, and we could end up with eight years of a Republican White House.
I see Cuomo getting as far to the nomination as Pataki did during the 2016 Republican race.
That was reelection, this is for first terms.
He'll get closer than Pataki. When everyone else starts talking about stuff they'd like to do if they win he'll just say he already did it in NY.
UberTag
Member
Hey, you left out the Finding Dory screening.
shinra-bansho
Member
This is a joke, but it's actually the likely response.
Kellyanne was really adept at appropriating "fake news".
That won't happen.If Kasich primaried trump and won against him it wouldn't end well for the republicans in the general. A part of the republican base would not bother supporting Kasich and he would be beaten easily in the general
Gillibrand will suck his oxygen out of the room.
This is a good thing.
The problem with Brown is that he has no profile at a time when you really need one.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
The crazy thing is that Trump has near record high approval rating among own party at this time, matching the same high 80s that Obama and Bush started out with, which are unmatched by any president before them. Might even be the record high depending on which polls you're comparing.
Only thing making him have record low approval ratings are democrats and independents.
Only thing making him have record low approval ratings are democrats and independents.
shinra-bansho
Member
Trump's base is that 42% and they're clearly more than enough to win.
I mean that even 40% think Trump has more credibility than the papers of record should tell you that.
Liberals have been and continue to be awful at marketing their ideas and pushing back at the GOP's effective efforts.
The resistance? Lol. Okay.
The GOP manages to get "death panels" and "religious liberties" ie license to discriminate, and "job killing regulations" into the public consciousness. And they've taken fake news.
thehypocrite
Member
Well, there's no reasoning with the Joker.
Smiles and Cries
Member
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Kellyanne's messaging is so effective that literally no one other than white supremacists and white evangelicals has bought into the messaging (and they already thought that the media was the devil before Trump started running) and so the general public thinks that a trash TV station like CNN has more credibility than the president of the United States.
shinra-bansho
Member
This is Donald Trump. A man who lies basically every time he opens his mouth.
So sure, she's totally ineffective. It's a really good idea to keep underestimating. That will work out well.
This ignoring whether PPP has corrected for their and other polling firms non response error that plagued the polling.
So sure, she's totally ineffective. It's a really good idea to keep underestimating. That will work out well.
This ignoring whether PPP has corrected for their and other polling firms non response error that plagued the polling.
Doc Holliday
SPOILER: Columbus finds America
If people had a problem with Hilary's shrill speech voice, wait till they hear Cuomo lol. When it comes to public speaking he sure isn't like his dad.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
RastaMentality
Banned
He's not really doing much rn but he'll get profile just from being a white dude from Ohio. I'm sure loads of white dems will be latching into him by 2020 anyways.
I'm actually kinda shocked he's not making a splash like everyone else has been. Maybe he's shook about 2018?
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Trump is so competent that he's planning to start a war in Iran after one meeting with the king of Saudi Arabia despite having never talked to his Secretary of State. Also, he has the leakiest administration of all time.
https://twitter.com/InternetHippo/status/810200618832904192
shinra-bansho
Member
I have no illusions of Trump being particularly competent. NB. Or even much of his team.
But Steve Bannon may be a literal Nazi. He's also managing to get everything he wants and isn't an idiot.
Similarly, Kellyanne Conway, horrible woman that she is, is very good at using her evil powers to spin.
I don't really see why this is hard to admit.
This isn't about long games and 43rd dimensional chess.
But Steve Bannon may be a literal Nazi. He's also managing to get everything he wants and isn't an idiot.
Similarly, Kellyanne Conway, horrible woman that she is, is very good at using her evil powers to spin.
I don't really see why this is hard to admit.
This isn't about long games and 43rd dimensional chess.
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