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PoliGAF 2017 |OT1| From Russia with Love

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avaya

Member
Well, obviously.

I'm not talking about legal ramifications. I'm talking about now he's on national television stating this, and if the IC eventually determines otherwise, he looks like a blatant liar and is attached to the whole thing.

I think the EE intelligence community is likely to have the smoking gun rather than the NSA, unless of course the Trumpkins have been monumentally stupid in their communications.

The larger problem I see is trying to get them to compromise themselves in the Senate committee hearings. They'll all plead the 5th or use the "I do not recall" trick.

I can only imagine there is palpable anger within the CIA at the current state of affairs
 
51HOGR7.jpg
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Two thoughts:

1. Reading what Olbermann tweeted earlier, wouldn't it be amazing if Obama turned the tables and now organized a group that did extensive research on Trump and his connections with Russia?

2. Russia have to have blackmail information on Chaffetz, right? I mean, this guy.
 
I'm in Chicago for the weekend to visit some friends and explore the city and I saw Trump Tower for the first time in person yesterday.

It's just so....gaudy, like it's in a super cool part of town and it just sticks out like a sore thumb.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I'm in Chicago for the weekend to visit some friends and explore the city and I saw Trump Tower for the first time in person yesterday.

It's just so....gaudy, like it's in a super cool part of town and it just sticks out like a sore thumb.

The one in NY isn't much better. The man has absolutely zero taste.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Republican lawmakers seem committed to normalizing his conflicts of interest and muzzling the various ethics offices instead. I'm not expecting much to happen here even if it should.

There's already enough there to impeach the second he finishes the oath and no one seems to care, so I don't expect shit.
 

kess

Member
Trump's schtick hasn't changed

After his somewhat somber beginning, Trump launched into a passionate attack against a foreign competitors he believes are taking advantage of American political incompetence. He beseeched his audience to vote and have an influence on government.

"Country-wide, we have serious problems," he said. "So many countries are whipping America . . . making billions and stripping the United States of economic dignity. I respect the Japanese, but we have to fight back."

He related an experience with a Japanese business tycoon who brought several henchmen and an aggressive attitude into Trump's New York office. The man, Trump said, slammed his fist on his desk and demanded: 'We want real estate!'

"His level of intensity was incredible. When you're (working in) the New York real estate markets, you're dealing with some rough people. He made them look like babies. What happens to the country when this guy goes to the state department? His country . . . totally outsmarted our stupid politicians."

The fact that the United States defends countries militarily, including Japan, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, without collecting a dime, is a poor policy, Trump said. Kuwait has the highest standard of living in the world, he continued, and it is "ridiculous" that the U.S. government sends escorts for their ships in the Persian Gulf without collecting some of the profits from their oil markets.

"We wouldn't have deficits," he said. "We defend Japan for nothing. What kind of clowns do we have representing us? It's a very sad situation."

1988.
 

Gruco

Banned
The Coffman "town hall" is the single most encouraging bit of news I've seen since the election, even more so than the hesitation from the Senate re: the ACA. If people start going summer 2009 on the ACA repeal, in the middle of a congressional investigation into Russia ties and a president with a 37% pre inaugaration approval, things are going to get ugly in a hurry.

This is such a strange situation. So many congressmen legit don't understand the ACA or why they are opposed to it beyond "but Obama." There is no plan to replace because Obama used a fairly conservative strategy. People are starting to see how it effects their lives and Republican cynicism is increasingly exposed.

IDK what happens next. Obviously another four years would have been ideal before the ACA had to face this type of situation. But I'm over the post-election malaise. People are already fighting back. Trump just made an enemy out of the entire city of Atlanta. With any luck we'll be looking at WBush numbers before long. As sad as I am to have gotten to this situation, I am happy to see my country standing up and getting ready for the years ahead.
 

JP_

Banned
The Coffman "town hall" is the single most encouraging bit of news I've seen since the election, even more so than the hesitation from the Senate re: the ACA. If people start going summer 2009 on the ACA repeal, in the middle of a congressional investigation into Russia ties and a president with a 37% pre inaugaration approval, things are going to get ugly in a hurry.

This is such a strange situation. So many congressmen legit don't understand the ACA or why they are opposed to it beyond "but Obama." There is no plan to replace because Obama used a fairly conservative strategy. People are starting to see how it effects their lives and Republican cynicism is increasingly exposed.

IDK what happens next. Obviously another four years would have been ideal before the ACA had to face this type of situation. But I'm over the post-election malaise. People are already fighting back. Trump just made an enemy out of the entire city of Atlanta. With any luck we'll be looking at WBush numbers before long. As sad as I am to have gotten to this situation, I am happy to see my country standing up and getting ready for the years ahead.
Republicans can't outright repeal and replace without dem help. What they can do without dem help is repeal funding for the law. So my bet is they'll sabotage the law by cutting subsides etc and then continue selling the idea that the law is failing, but because they've taken out major mechanisms the law depends on, it will actually be failing, and they'll use that to try and pressure dems to work with them on a replacement.

Dems will have a more complex story to sell the public. Dems can't say "republicans are repealing a law giving affordable health insurance to millions" -- they have to explain how the law was intentionally cut off at the knees by republicans in order to make it fail, and that's why it's failing now. Meanwhile, Americans will be suffering and demanding action... and dems will have to convince them why they it's better to not be voting on these republican fixes.
 
Republicans can't outright repeal and replace without dem help. What they can do without dem help is repeal funding for the law. So my bet is they'll sabotage the law by cutting subsides etc and then continue selling the idea that the law is failing, but because they've taken out major mechanisms the law depends on, it will actually be failing, and they'll use that to try and pressure dems to work with them on a replacement.

Dems will have a more complex story to sell the public. Dems can't say "republicans are repealing a law giving affordable health insurance to millions" -- they have to explain how the law was intentionally cut off at the knees by republicans in order to make it fail, and that's why it's failing now. Meanwhile, Americans will be suffering and demanding action... and dems will have to convince them why they it's better to not be voting on these republican fixes.

If the health industry starts failing under the GOP, the GOP will be blamed for it. Going "bu... but... OBAMA" 2-3 years into their term is useless and doesn't work.
 
The Coffman "town hall" is the single most encouraging bit of news I've seen since the election, even more so than the hesitation from the Senate re: the ACA. If people start going summer 2009 on the ACA repeal, in the middle of a congressional investigation into Russia ties and a president with a 37% pre inaugaration approval, things are going to get ugly in a hurry.

This is such a strange situation. So many congressmen legit don't understand the ACA or why they are opposed to it beyond "but Obama." There is no plan to replace because Obama used a fairly conservative strategy. People are starting to see how it effects their lives and Republican cynicism is increasingly exposed.

IDK what happens next. Obviously another four years would have been ideal before the ACA had to face this type of situation. But I'm over the post-election malaise. People are already fighting back. Trump just made an enemy out of the entire city of Atlanta. With any luck we'll be looking at WBush numbers before long. As sad as I am to have gotten to this situation, I am happy to see my country standing up and getting ready for the years ahead.

I'm where you are. I'm itching for a fight, and I think it's a common sentiment right now. People aren't happy.
 

JP_

Banned
If the health industry starts failing under the GOP, the GOP will be blamed for it. Going "bu... but... OBAMA" 2-3 years into their term is useless and doesn't work.
I think the information bubbles have gotten so extreme that it's very possible they'll be able to convince about half the electorate and make dems out to be obstructionists. I mean, it's not like these people need convincing that ovamacare is a failure. Even a lot of dems seem to have bought that line.
 

Vixdean

Member
It's been said before, but even if this whole Russia thing turns out to be a giant load of bull, the Democrats need to pursue with the same relentless vigor as Republicans did Obama's birth certificate, the Benghazi witch trials, and the comparative nothingburger that was Hillary's personal email server. There is no benefit in taking the moral high ground in politics and I'd even argue Obama's subdued approach to dealing with Republican intransigence during his terms is what eventually got us Trump. The Democratic theme song over the next 4 years needs to be this,

https://youtu.be/IYH7_GzP4Tg
 
Republicans can't outright repeal and replace without dem help. What they can do without dem help is repeal funding for the law. So my bet is they'll sabotage the law by cutting subsides etc and then continue selling the idea that the law is failing, but because they've taken out major mechanisms the law depends on, it will actually be failing, and they'll use that to try and pressure dems to work with them on a replacement.

Dems will have a more complex story to sell the public. Dems can't say "republicans are repealing a law giving affordable health insurance to millions" -- they have to explain how the law was intentionally cut off at the knees by republicans in order to make it fail, and that's why it's failing now. Meanwhile, Americans will be suffering and demanding action... and dems will have to convince them why they it's better to not be voting on these republican fixes.

The headlines will be "Republicans Repeal ObamaCare". Most people will have no clue beyond that. It will be up to the Republicans to explain how they haven't repealed it, but are slowly letting it die instead of replacing it.
 
Also, my wife's grandparents are the only New Deal Democrats I've met. It's nice since her dad (their son) is a hardcore Trump supporter. Her grandma came in this past weekend when we were all visiting and joked in front of everyone that Trump was going to put "The ruble stops here" on his desk haha.
 
The coffman town hall story would be inspiring putting aside the sinking feeling you have that a not insignificant amount of those people voted for trump

Also, lol at the post above me
 

kess

Member
It's been said before, but even if this whole Russia thing turns out to be a giant load of bull, the Democrats need to pursue with the same relentless vigor as Republicans did Obama's birth certificate, the Benghazi witch trials, and the comparative nothingburger that was Hillary's personal email server. There is no benefit in taking the moral high ground in politics and I'd even argue Obama's subdued approach to dealing with Republican intransigence during his terms is what eventually got us Trump. The Democratic theme song over the next 4 years needs to be this,

https://youtu.be/IYH7_GzP4Tg

McCain's involvement, the Senate investigation, and Trump flipping out on the intelligence community has already elevated the story to the level of a Clinton scandal, and a Republican controlled Congress exonerating a Republican president isn't going to make things go away so easily. It's one hell of a way to begin a term.

The coffman town hall story would be inspiring putting aside the sinking feeling you have that a not insignificant amount of those people voted for trump

Hell hath no fury like a scorned Trump supporter
 
The headlines will be "Republicans Repeal ObamaCare". Most people will have no clue beyond that. It will be up to the Republicans to explain how they haven't repealed it, but are slowly letting it die instead of replacing it.

This. Most Americans (like really high percentage) think that every vote is majority. As far as the American people are concerned, the GOP own whatever happens for the next 2 years.
 
I think the information bubbles have gotten so extreme that it's very possible they'll be able to convince about half the electorate and make dems out to be obstructionists. I mean, it's not like these people need convincing that ovamacare is a failure. Even a lot of dems seem to have bought that line.

- The GOP enter office and say they want to end Obamacare
- The GOP passes something that deals with Obamacare, people don't really pay attention, but know they did something
- Obamacare starts failing
- The public blames the GOP for making changes to the law

The issue with being the only party in control is that you're the only party to blame. There is no one else to blame when stuff you touched fails.
 
The more I think about the mess Republicans got themselves into with Healthcare the less sense it makes. There is no way that this is going to end cleanly for them and they're still going to go through with it because...?????
 

JP_

Banned
- The GOP enter office and say they want to end Obamacare
- The GOP passes something that deals with Obamacare, people don't really pay attention, but know they did something
- Obamacare starts failing
- The public blames the GOP for making changes to the law

The issue with being the only party in control is that you're the only party to blame. There is no one else to blame when stuff you touched fails.

Most voters seem to think obamacare is already failing. Including many that want single payer etc.
 

Gruco

Banned
The coffman town hall story would be inspiring putting aside the sinking feeling you have that a not insignificant amount of those people voted for trump
100% sure this is true. If anything makes it more encouraging. I'd like to believe you can't fool all the people all of the time.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
The more I think about the mess Republicans got themselves into with Healthcare the less sense it makes. There is no way that this is going to end cleanly for them and they're still going to go through with it because...?????

Because they can immediately give major tax cuts to the richest Americans, who happen to fund their campaigns, while also knowing that their staunch supporters will still most likely vote republican when 2018/2020 come around.
 
The more I think about the mess Republicans got themselves into with Healthcare the less sense it makes. There is no way that this is going to end cleanly for them and they're still going to go through with it because...?????

Letting it die slowly is the absolute worst thing they can do. It will cause an incredible amount of uncertainty for both the people on it and the Healthcare sector at large. Dems absolutely need to be pounding on the point that an ACA repeal affects those with employer provided coverage as well.
 

JP_

Banned
What they think and what they experience are different. If people lose coverage, get rates jacked up, deductibles go up, etc... then they'll get angry.

yeah, angry at democrats for not going along with republican's replacement plans. In their eyes, obamacare has been failing this entire time and republicans have been trying to replace obamacare for years before the inevitable total callapse and dems have been blocking them. When ACA totally collapses, they'll think "see, this is what republicans were trying to prevent."
 
yeah, angry at democrats for not going along with republican's replacement plans. In their eyes, republicans have been trying to replace obamacare for years before the inevitable total failure and dems have been blocking them. When ACA collapses, they'll think "see, this is what republicans were trying to prevent."

No, they'll blame the GOP because the GOP was supposed to fix it before it got that bad. The GOP has absolute power to do whatever they want and the only one to blame when everything breaks is the GOP.

You're adding complex, critical thinking to a block of people who think "the president is a Republican, everything bad is Republican's fault" because that's about as much thinking as you'll get out of them.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Well if the Democrats had just sold healthcare instead of running away from it in 2010 and 2014 we would not be in this predicament.

Democrats allowed Republicans to say whatever falsehoods about the bill and they have stuck since.

There is a reason why Obama called Bill the explainer in chief. Obama never really sold his legislation like he should have. One of his biggest mistakes of his 2 terms.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
No, they'll blame the GOP because the GOP was supposed to fix it before it got that bad. The GOP has absolute power to do whatever they want and the only one to blame when everything breaks if the GOP.

You're adding complex, critical thinking to a block of people who think "the president is a Republican, everything bad is Republican's fault" because that's about as much thinking as you'll get out of them.

Republicans will bribe them in the run up to 2018 and everything will be the same.
 

Ogodei

Member
- The GOP enter office and say they want to end Obamacare
- The GOP passes something that deals with Obamacare, people don't really pay attention, but know they did something
- Obamacare starts failing
- The public blames the GOP for making changes to the law

The issue with being the only party in control is that you're the only party to blame. There is no one else to blame when stuff you touched fails.

Yup. The only people who will still blame the Democrats are the ones who were never going to vote anything other than R in their lives anyway. We've seen there are enough conservatives who can be convinced that maybe the GOP is bad to put Democrats in the governors' mansions in Raleigh and Baton Rouge, so the margin of the hopelessly indoctrinated is not so high as to be insurmountable.
 

JP_

Banned
No, they'll blame the GOP because the GOP was supposed to fix it before it got that bad. The GOP has absolute power to do whatever they want and the only one to blame when everything breaks if the GOP.

You're adding complex, critical thinking to a block of people who think "the president is a Republican, everything bad is Republican's fault" because that's about as much thinking as you'll get out of them.

I really have no idea why you think GOP voters will blame GOP when GOP can simply say "dems are blocking us from fixing it." You seem to think there's one big voting block when the reality is that candidates start off with like 45% of the vote. They're increasingly reading stuff like Breitbart and living in an increasingly different reality. It's not about complex thinking, it's about partisan camps and identity and the information bubbles that throw a wrench in the very idea of political accountability.

As for the swing voters, people that voted for Trump will have a hard time admitting they made a mistake, so their tendency will be to defend him and the GOP. The simple fact that Trump won is validating and will naturally increase his support in general. There's a lot to overcome to get people to switch on a party that fast. Stuff like the russia scandal will help but I'm done being optimistic -- better to be safe than sorry and plan around a more critical outlook.
 
Well if the Democrats had just sold healthcare instead of running away from it in 2010 and 2014 we would not be in this predicament.

Democrats allowed Republicans to say whatever falsehoods about the bill and they have stuck since.

There is a reason why Obama called Bill the explainer in chief. Obama never really sold his legislation like he should have. One of his biggest mistakes of his 2 terms.

Fuckfaces like Liberman helped to doom the current system from the start. Had his support been there, at least a public option would have been included when we had the chance.

But yes, the Dems should not have been in a position at the time to have to rely on someone like him.
 

Gruco

Banned
Well if the Democrats had just sold healthcare instead of running away from it in 2010 and 2014 we would not be in this predicament.

Democrats allowed Republicans to say whatever falsehoods about the bill and they have stuck since.

There is a reason why Obama called Bill the explainer in chief. Obama never really sold his legislation like he should have. One of his biggest mistakes of his 2 terms.

Not sure I agree with this. Obama spent the summer 2009 on an explanation tour, but couldn't keep up with the town hall madness around the country.

I do agree that Clinton's explaining was a huge asset in 2012, but part of the reason it had that value was simply that a national campaign brings everyone's attention to the forefront in ways that midterms don't.

IDK, you may be right that people didn't sufficiently stand their ground, but 2010 in particular was an ugly situation. Dems definitely lost the messaging war, but a messaging war is a lot easier when you don't have to deal with governing at the same time.
 
I really have no idea why you think GOP voters will blame GOP when GOP can simply say "dems are blocking us from fixing it." You seem to think there's one big voting block when the reality is that candidates start off with like 45% of the vote. They're increasingly reading stuff like Breitbart and living in an increasingly different reality. It's not about complex thinking, it's about partisan camps and identity and the information bubbles that throw a wrench in the very idea of political accountability.

Nobody cares what GOP voters think because they're GOP voters. Just like who cares about hard core Dems, nothing is changing them. When people talk about whose blaming who for what, it's that 10% or so that aren't hard line voters.
 

JP_

Banned
Nobody cares what GOP voters think because they're GOP voters. Just like who cares about hard core Dems, nothing is changing them. When people talk about whose blaming who for what, it's that 10% or so that aren't hard line voters.
see edit:
As for the swing voters, people that voted for Trump will have a hard time admitting they made a mistake, so their tendency will be to defend him and the GOP. The simple fact that Trump won is validating and will naturally increase his support in general. There's a lot to overcome to get people to switch on a party that fast. Stuff like the russia scandal will help but I'm done being optimistic -- better to be safe than sorry and plan around a more critical outlook.
 
I really have no idea why you think GOP voters will blame GOP when GOP can simply say "dems are blocking us from fixing it." You seem to think there's one big voting block when the reality is that candidates start off with like 45% of the vote. They're increasingly reading stuff like Breitbart and living in an increasingly different reality. It's not about complex thinking, it's about partisan camps and identity and the information bubbles that throw a wrench in the very idea of political accountability.

As for the swing voters, people that voted for Trump will have a hard time admitting they made a mistake, so their tendency will be to defend him and the GOP. The simple fact that Trump won is validating and will naturally increase his support in general. There's a lot to overcome to get people to switch on a party that fast. Stuff like the russia scandal will help but I'm done being optimistic -- better to be safe than sorry and plan around a more critical outlook.

Americans don't believe the bolded is possible. Again, like 80% of the population (at least) thinks every bill gets voted on and you just need 50%+1 for it to pass. If the GOP claims we're blocking them, most people will just say "then out-vote them!" The idea of getting 60 votes for stuff is alien to everyone but political junkies.
 
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