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PoliGAF 2017 |OT1| From Russia with Love

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N

nitronite

Member
nature boy said:
C2YxLqXXEAAKPjl.jpg:large
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Oh boy... Can't wait for Trump to call her a 5/10 or something to claim that there's no way he would ever do anything to her.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Going after the endangered species act is really weird. Not only is it popular, but... it looks awful. "Killing animals to drill for oil"

The commercials with sad looking wolves and eagles write themselves...

They're getting cocky. They think they're untouchable, but all they're doing is riling up the Democrats and giving them issue after issue to latch onto for 4 years and use against them.
 
B

Brawly Likes to Brawl

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
Going after the endangered species act is really weird. Not only is it popular, but... it looks awful. "Killing animals to drill for oil"

The commercials with sad looking wolves and eagles write themselves...

They're getting cocky. They think they're untouchable, but all they're doing is riling up the Democrats and giving them issue after issue to latch onto for 4 years and use against them.
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Didn't a GOP Congressman claim they have a mandate? They've really gotten drunk off the victory.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Brawly Likes to Brawl said:
Didn't a GOP Congressman claim they have a mandate? They've really gotten drunk off the victory.
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Much like how the Democrats got complacent and used to Obama handling everything, and Obama's success hid problems, the GOP got complacent and used to blaming Obama for everything, and coasting by on that resentment of Obama. Now that they're actually in power, they don't seem to really know what to do with themselves.

I doubt they ever assumed they'd hold near complete power over all aspects of government in the entire country. And we're seeing what happens when all that power goes to their heads.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
SenorArdilla said:
LMAO

Don't they also try to flip it on Democrats by saying that Dems used to be the party of racists? Then was then. Now is now.
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My favorite is when they try and use the Congressional Vote on LBJ's 1964 Civil Rights Act to argue that Democrats are the real racists since Congressional Republicans were more likely to vote in favor of passage than Congressional Democrats. Of course, when you control for region, Northern vs. Southern, the association reverses. And white Southern Democrats spent the next several decades switching parties to Republican. And the bill was signed by a Democratic president while Barry Goldwater, the Republican candidate for president that year, voted against it. And...
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
This is why I am not optimistic AT ALL for 2018:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ong-with-white-voters/?utm_term=.1dc510340ee8
Yet paradoxically, Trump's low approval ratings represent less political danger for congressional Republicans than Obama's much higher numbers posed for Democrats. That's true for the same reason that polling correctly showed Trump losing the 2016 popular vote, but did not block his path to the presidency. Trump remains largely popular with white voters, and the states and districts that will hold competitive midterm elections in 2018 are more white than the country as a whole.
Click to expand...
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Jon Ralston's new Nevada news website is up. Check it out. Might as well. As annoying as he can be, I actually think this is a good endeavor.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/

And: POLLS!!!!

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/nevada_independent_poll_sandoval_popular_voters_mixed

Nevada voters applaud Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval’s performance, but a new poll taken for The Nevada Independent shows other major state political figures like U.S. Sen. Dean Heller and Attorney General Adam Laxalt getting less sterling reviews.

The new Independent Poll — the first public survey of Nevada released since the 2016 election — found voters are generally more polarized and have a lower opinion of politicians aside from the state’s top Republican . The poll of 600 likely voters was conducted by The Mellman Group between Jan. 12 and 15.

Voters were specifically asked, “As a public official do you think (elected official) is doing an excellent job, a good job, only a fair job, or a poor job, or aren’t you sure? If you are not sure how good a job (candidate) is doing just say so.”

Independent-Poll-graphic.png
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Laxalt and Heller are super vulnerable.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Plinko said:
This is why I am not optimistic AT ALL for 2018:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ong-with-white-voters/?utm_term=.1dc510340ee8
Click to expand...

As of 2016, the House was won in districts that were whiter than the country at large. In 2018, Republicans see vulnerable Democrats in states that are whiter and more rural — and that broke big for Trump. If the president-elect's approval rating is stuck at 40 percent, it is still likely above 50 percent in the places where Republicans need to win.
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Pretttty sure Trump's approval rating is going to fall from 40%.
 
S

studyguy

Member
The dice will fall on 2018 depending on how the markets react to healthcare repeal. I can't imagine insurance markets sit on their hands for two to three years waiting for things to go tits up and die. Who knows what other nonsense the GOP get up to before then to boot.

balladofwindfishes said:
He's not even starting his term at 40%
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https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_011717/

Trump takes the presidential oath this week with just 34% of Americans holding a favorable view of him and 46% having an unfavorable opinion. Another 20% are withholding judgment for now. The public is divided on Trump's relationship with Russia. Just under half - 48% are concerned that he will be too friendly toward that country. An identical 48% of Americans, on the other hand, are not concerned about this. This is little changed from when Russian links to the DNC hacking were first raised during the campaign. Back in August, 45% of voters were concerned about Trump's attitude toward Russia and 49% were not
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Mandate people. Mandate.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
I am pretty sure that if the 2010 midterms had instead been held when Obama was inaugurated, the Democrats would have retained control of Congress. Perhaps we should see what happens before we declare Democrats doomed in 2018.
 
F

faisal233

Member
dramatis said:
Somehow, we have gotten to this point

Tragedy Would Unfold If Trump Cancels Bush's AIDS Program


Not just Obama stuff, we have to protect even Bush stuff? Without Republican help?

What's Congress and Trump going to target next, CHIP?
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...

so I have some news for you...

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligence...o-repeal-obamacare-take-children-hostage.html

The Republican dilemma on health care is that the party may have the ability to destroy the status quo, but it doesn't have the ability to put something in its place. One reason is mechanical: They can defund Obamacare with just 50 Senate votes, but they need 60 to rewrite its insurance regulations. The other reason is ideological: Giving people the better coverage they promised, or even minimally acceptable coverage, requires providing resources, and there's no way that's ideologically acceptable to their party to conjure those resources, which is why the unified Republican plan has been stuck in the almost-there stage since 2009.

The Republican strategy to solve this dilemma is to coerce Democrats into solving their dilemma for them by repealing Obamacare and blaming Democrats for the disaster caused by the repeal unless they agree to support some kind of Republican proposal — and, by supporting it, neuter their chance to blame Republicans for the outcome. And yet some doubt is already creeping in as to whether this massive hostage-taking scheme can actually work. Their answer to this dilemma is ... take even more hostages. Specifically, some very small ones. ”According to multiple GOP sources, Republicans are looking at whether to use reauthorizations of existing programs, such as the Children's Health Insurance Program, as vehicles for replacement measures," reports Mike DeBonis in the Washington Post. ”That could give them leverage to secure cooperation from Democrats."

A bit of explanation is required. The Children's Health Insurance Program, or CHIP, was created in 1998 as part of a deal in which Democrats got health coverage for children and Republicans got a capital-gains tax cut. It has since grown quite popular, and insures 8 million children from low-income families. In 2015, it was reauthorized by a vote of 392–37 in the House and 92–8 in the Senate. It needs to be reauthorized again at the end of this year or it will expire.

The ”leverage" for Republicans to ”secure cooperation" from Democrats for their plan to give people cheaper, skimpier insurance than Obamacare offers is to threaten to end the Children's Health Insurance Program. Apparently the idea is that it's not enough to threaten to throw millions of adults off their insurance. You also need to have some sick children to threaten as well.

Now, the notion that this will actually compel Democrats to support a painful Republican plan, as opposed to simply making the Republican Party even more unpopular, seems quite fanciful. But it's the kind of idea you settle on if you truly have no better options.
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B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
balladofwindfishes said:
What's wrong with the president working towards getting the Olympics held in the US? I don't really see the issue, other than "Hitler did it" and he's already planning his second term. But neither of those are really anything.
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Dictators like to use the Olympics to prop up their regimes and give themselves a quick boost in popularity, along with a boost of nationalism and a boost in how they're perceived by the world at large. If Trump puts on a successful Olympics that would do more to cement a decent legacy than literally anything else.

If he gets it in 2024, assuming he's still in power, that'll be the last thing he'll be remembered for.

whyamihere said:
LEAVE LA ALONE, TRUMP
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lol
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Box of Kittens said:
I am pretty sure that if the 2010 midterms had instead been held when Obama was inaugurated, the Democrats would have retained control of Congress. Perhaps we should see what happens before we declare Democrats doomed in 2018.
Click to expand...

Not saying "They're doomed." Just that I'm not optimistic about it based on numerous factors.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
Plinko said:
This is why I am not optimistic AT ALL for 2018:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ong-with-white-voters/?utm_term=.1dc510340ee8
Click to expand...

Add in an economy that likely will continue to improve, jobs coming back to America, voter suppression and democrat apathy and republicans will likely do well in 2018. I don't see repealing Obamacare moving the needle against him either. He will have achieved what republicans have wanted for years and they'll reward their congresspeople in 2018.

You've got to bet on Trump fucking up. Trade war, stupid foreign policy decision, etc. Something that negates the positive trajectory of the economy and confirms fears that he is too ignorant/reckless/etc and puts democrats in position to check him.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Plinko said:
Not saying "They're doomed." Just that I'm not optimistic about it based on numerous factors.
Click to expand...

Literally almost all historical evidence points to the president's party losing seats in the House in midterms.

It depends on how the economy does, but he's not going to get anymore popular.
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
If we cannot win massively in 2018, I give up on everything.

If this party cannot figure out a way to win in 2010 like numbers under these circumstances, there's really no point going forward anymore.

We have an administration that has 40% approval rating, already has more scandals and conflicts of interest than any other administration in like 100 years. And seemingly goes out of their way to support the worst possible policy at every opportunity.

Trump and the GOP does not support a single policy that will make anyone's life better. Not even rich white people are going to be better off with the shit he is already trying to pull.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
VendettaRed07 said:
If we cannot win massively in 2018, I give up on everything.

If this party cannot figure out a way to win in 2010 like numbers under these circumstances, there's really no point going forward anymore.

We have an administration that has 40% approval rating, already has more scandals and conflicts of interest than any other administration in like 100 years. And seemingly goes out of their way to support the worst possible policy at every opportunity.

Trump and the GOP does not support a single policy that will make anyone's life better. Not even rich white people are going to be better off with the shit he is already trying to pull.
Click to expand...

Prepare to skydive off of the empire state building. Unless someone emerges to pull the Democrats back together, you're only going to have part of the Hillary folk voting in 2018 while the Bernie factions continues to grab their ball and heads home.
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
Wilsongt said:
Prepare to skydive off of the empire state building. Unless someone emerges to pull the Democrats back together, you're only going to have part of the Hillary folk voting in 2018 while the Bernie factions continues to grab their ball and heads home.
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What do you mean?

Republicans didn't need anyone to pull their party together. They did better without a figurehead at the top and 10 different factions voting for different GOP candidates for different reasons.
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
Wilsongt said:
I said Democrats, not Republicans lol
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I know. But there is no reason why the party should not be able to win even without a "leader" or even cohesive message. "Bernie" voters won't sit at home. Especially if the party is running candidates they like. And rural GOP turn out should be way down if things like the wall and trade deal negotiations fall apart, and they make cuts to medicaid, medicare, destroy our health institutions, etc.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
One day after China threatens war against Trump.

"I just don't know if we'll see a major screwup from this administration that will lower his approval rating among white people."

>_>
 
C

Crocodile

Member
Cesare Borgia said:
Add in an economy that likely will continue to improve, jobs coming back to America, voter suppression and democrat apathy and republicans will likely do well in 2018. I don't see repealing Obamacare moving the needle against him either. He will have achieved what republicans have wanted for years and they'll reward their congresspeople in 2018.

You've got to bet on Trump fucking up. Trade war, stupid foreign policy decision, etc. Something that negates the positive trajectory of the economy and confirms fears that he is too ignorant/reckless/etc and puts democrats in position to check him.
Click to expand...

A) Why would you expect Democratic apathy? What about this situation or the next two years would engender apathy in Democrats?

B) It seems clear to me, between the polling data and the 345342235323 "I didn't think he meant it when he said he would repeal the ACA" stories that most don't actually want the ACA gone. If the ACA is repealed, voters will get hurt in real ways and in a hurry. That's going to piss off a lot of people.
 
V

Vixdean

Member
My biggest fear for 2018 is Democrats continuing to relitigate the 2016 primary and getting mired in debates over supporting "populist" candidates for Congress.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
I posted a story like three posts ago about how Trump is about to send American kids to die in the Middle East to fight a terrorist group that has no impact on us outside of hysteria.

Yesterday, we found out that Trump almost leaked classified information to a foreign tabloid.

Things are going to go horribly wrong in this administration, guys.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
https://www.azsos.gov/about-office/media-center/press-releases/1177

Secretary of State Michele Reagan has announced the latest voter registration figures and the number of registrants in Arizona has increased 57,656 to more than 3.6 million active voters.

Of the state's 3,646,122 voters, 1,259,956 are Republicans, 1,106,514 are Democrats and 1,240,263 have not designated an officially recognized party preference. Libertarians and members of the Green party make up a little less than one percent of the state's total registration.

”It's good to see our enrollment continue to rise after last year's general election," said Secretary Reagan. ”While we saw high levels of participation throughout 2016, we're reminding voters how important their local elections are. Early voting for March elections begins February 15, 2017 in places like Phoenix, Holbrook and Goodyear. These community elections often have lower turnout so each and every vote carries a lot of weight. Nothing is more important than the quality of life in the place we call home, and these local elections give us the opportunity to make a real impact in our community."
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@Garrett_Archer
This represents a 1.6% increase in the voter rolls since the General election. 20k GOP, 15k Dem, 21k Other.
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@Garrett_Archer
Some takeaways for the year to year comparisons: 392k more people are registered. The vast majority of these new registrants chose a party.
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@Garrett_Archer
January 2016 to January 2017 increases by party: 12.3% GOP (154k), 17.1% Democrat (189k), 3.7% Unaffiliated and Other (48k).
Click to expand...
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Democrats need to harness anger and hatred like the GOP.

I don't mean like against people or races or anything like that.

But convert the disgust, anger, disappointment and bitterness against the GOP into raw voting and protesting power.

I was furious when I heard what they want to do to the endangered species act. Had I been a Republican, the GOP would have harassed that anger and used it to get me to the polls, have me boycotting things, calling representatives, and securing me as a life long member.

The Democrats just say "oh, that's awful, but oh well, 2018 is gone. 2020 is gone too. Oh well poor eagles, nothing we can do" The GOP would be screaming from high heaven about how the Democrats literally want to slaughter wolves. It doesn't matter what the actual bill says. The Democrats want to kill wolves and that's all that matters and the only narrative that gets out.

We need to be done trying to "go back" to a time before rigid polarization. It's our government system now, we need to embrace it, harness it, and gain back power.

If a video game is super broken, do you play it like a regular game, dancing around the problems trying to avoid them as best as possible? Heck no! You abuse those bugs to high heaven and make silly videos of people's heads spinning and people falling through floors and stuff. Because that's way more fun than just making a futile effort to play the game "right"
 
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