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PoliGAF 2017 |OT1| From Russia with Love
- Thread starter ItWasMeantToBe19
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Bonen no Max'd
Banned
I have no idea who will do well in a primary in 2020. Aside from it being four years in the future where we don't know the political situation, Hillary's like the last national Democrat to have worked in the south so I have no idea what kind of politician the black voters in the south want. Booker is pretty religious I think so he might be popular there. Someone like Brown, Harris, or Gillibrand has large number of minority constituents but I don't know if black voters in Ohio feel the same way as black voters in Georgia.
I just don't want to make assumptions about Biden, though I don't think he'll run.
I just don't want to make assumptions about Biden, though I don't think he'll run.
baby boom is usually considered to be '45-'65 iirc, gen x '65-early 80s
Brawndo Addict
Banned
Hope it was worth it Obama. History will judge you and you chose poorly when it mattered most
In regards to?
Mobius and pet octopus
Member
benjipwns
Banned
Your 2020 candidate depends on the situation.
Obama was pushed to run despite having just entered the Senate because 2008 had no incumbents and he could establish his own image having no prior career. (This is also why Romney decided not to run for re-election as Governor.) Plus, if he lost, it was no big deal because he was young enough to come back in 2016 or even 2024 after spending time in the Senate.
2008 was a golden opportunity because W. Bush was so unpopular and the "front-runners" were both hampered by being not exactly favored by their party "when it came down to it" in Hillary Clinton or John McCain/Rudy Giuliani. During the summer of 2006, 2008 Hillary never had the juggernaut status 2016 Hillary did. Rudy and McCain polled well nationally but terribly in many of the early states.
If we assume Trump is running again in 2020, and is at least as strong as 2004 Bush minus the war fever that kept half the likely Democrats out of the field.
Working with only elected officials. A safe bet is to write off anyone who would have to sacrifice a seat in 2020 unless they're willing to give it up. Luckily for the Democrats they got slaughtered so much in 2014 they only have 11 total Senators up anyway and I don't believe any of them are states which require you to choose.
Such a term limit can encourage people to run though. It's what made John Edwards decide to run in 2004 for example.
Here's the D's list of 2020 Senators with their ages then: Cory Booker (51), Chris Coons (57), Gary Peters (62), Jeff Merkely (64), Mark Warner (66), Al Franken (69), Jack Reed (71), Tom Udall (72), Jeanne Shaheen (73), Ed Markey (74), Dick Durban (76).
Steve Bullock (54) of Montana will be the only D Governor term-limited for 2020. Jerry Brown (82), John Hickenlooper (68) and Mark Dayton (73) are all leaving office after 2018. (Dayton can run again but won't be.)
2020 Presidential front-runner and current Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe will be term-limited out in 2018 and will be 63 in 2020.
And well, that's it. All other Democratic Governors, as of right now, will face re-election one more time before 2020. And running for re-election in 2018 and then immediately jumping into a Presidential race will be difficult. It's much easier for Senators but almost the entire Democratic field will be coming out of that group.
That leaves your best bets as someone who has no opposition in 2018 (Gillibrand), someone older who may choose to focus on the Presidency instead of another term in the Senate (Warren?), younger candidates who can take a shot at the nomination and miss even if they lose their Senate race (Casey, Baldwin, Klobuchar, etc.) and come back around again in two years, or candidates who can run for the Presidency and miss and run again for it in four years because they combine the best of all worlds (Gillibrand).
Can you have an outsider, well, duh, look at this year and even Obama.
But for anyone talking about say, Gavin Newsom 2020 let's remember he has to win the Governorship in 2018 (something he's already not a lock to do) and then immediately turn around and run for President for a year. All while being Gavin Newsom.
All of this is why the odds tend to favor the nice bland choices to challenge incumbents like Mondale, Dole, Kerry, Romney and...hmmm..Mark Warner?
Of course, Warner will have to make up the forty points he trails 2020 frontrunner Terry McAuliffe by.
He's in luck though:
Zogby Dec 2000:
Zogby Feb 2001:
Time/CNN May 2001:
Obama was pushed to run despite having just entered the Senate because 2008 had no incumbents and he could establish his own image having no prior career. (This is also why Romney decided not to run for re-election as Governor.) Plus, if he lost, it was no big deal because he was young enough to come back in 2016 or even 2024 after spending time in the Senate.
2008 was a golden opportunity because W. Bush was so unpopular and the "front-runners" were both hampered by being not exactly favored by their party "when it came down to it" in Hillary Clinton or John McCain/Rudy Giuliani. During the summer of 2006, 2008 Hillary never had the juggernaut status 2016 Hillary did. Rudy and McCain polled well nationally but terribly in many of the early states.
If we assume Trump is running again in 2020, and is at least as strong as 2004 Bush minus the war fever that kept half the likely Democrats out of the field.
Working with only elected officials. A safe bet is to write off anyone who would have to sacrifice a seat in 2020 unless they're willing to give it up. Luckily for the Democrats they got slaughtered so much in 2014 they only have 11 total Senators up anyway and I don't believe any of them are states which require you to choose.
Such a term limit can encourage people to run though. It's what made John Edwards decide to run in 2004 for example.
Here's the D's list of 2020 Senators with their ages then: Cory Booker (51), Chris Coons (57), Gary Peters (62), Jeff Merkely (64), Mark Warner (66), Al Franken (69), Jack Reed (71), Tom Udall (72), Jeanne Shaheen (73), Ed Markey (74), Dick Durban (76).
Steve Bullock (54) of Montana will be the only D Governor term-limited for 2020. Jerry Brown (82), John Hickenlooper (68) and Mark Dayton (73) are all leaving office after 2018. (Dayton can run again but won't be.)
2020 Presidential front-runner and current Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe will be term-limited out in 2018 and will be 63 in 2020.
And well, that's it. All other Democratic Governors, as of right now, will face re-election one more time before 2020. And running for re-election in 2018 and then immediately jumping into a Presidential race will be difficult. It's much easier for Senators but almost the entire Democratic field will be coming out of that group.
That leaves your best bets as someone who has no opposition in 2018 (Gillibrand), someone older who may choose to focus on the Presidency instead of another term in the Senate (Warren?), younger candidates who can take a shot at the nomination and miss even if they lose their Senate race (Casey, Baldwin, Klobuchar, etc.) and come back around again in two years, or candidates who can run for the Presidency and miss and run again for it in four years because they combine the best of all worlds (Gillibrand).
Can you have an outsider, well, duh, look at this year and even Obama.
But for anyone talking about say, Gavin Newsom 2020 let's remember he has to win the Governorship in 2018 (something he's already not a lock to do) and then immediately turn around and run for President for a year. All while being Gavin Newsom.
All of this is why the odds tend to favor the nice bland choices to challenge incumbents like Mondale, Dole, Kerry, Romney and...hmmm..Mark Warner?
Of course, Warner will have to make up the forty points he trails 2020 frontrunner Terry McAuliffe by.
He's in luck though:
Zogby Dec 2000:
Code:
Al Gore 36
Hillary Clinton 18
Bill Bradley 7
Dick Gephardt 5
Jesse Jackson 5
Bob Kerrey 3
Joe Lieberman 3
John Kerry 1
Gray Davis 1
Code:
Al Gore 44
Hillary Clinton 20
Dick Gephardt 7
Jesse Jackson 5
John Kerry 3
Joseph Biden 3
Bob Kerrey 2
Evan Bayh 2
Gray Davis 2
John Edwards 1
Code:
Al Gore 28
Hillary Clinton 14
Joe Lieberman 9
John Kerry 7
John Edwards 5
Joe Biden 3
Evan Bayh 3
Al Sharpton 2benjipwns
Banned
Covering up Trump's treason just because Obama hates Hillary.
whyamihere
Banned
FAKE NEWS
VendettaRed07
Member
Dude just the other week said in criticism of Hillary's campaign that "you can't eat equality". And this forum barely talked about it. Like at all. If Bernie Sanders had said that it would have been a 200 page thread.
It just speaks to the fact that people don't really give a crap what Biden, the loveable meme king's baggage is. People won't care what your baggage is if they like you. People like Biden. Especially given how everything has gone down.. He's Obama's BFF and that puts him in a better spot than anyone else
cartoon_soldier
Member
Young people value authenticity a lot.
The inauguration address was exactly like the campaign. It would make him lose nationally but win Pennsylvania, Michigan, etc.
benjipwns
Banned
DNC Chair candidate Jehmu Greene on Tucker Carlson: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9IXnWUTPwtM
Ouch.
He should try to have all the candidates come through.
Ouch.
He should try to have all the candidates come through.
RastaMentality
Banned
tucker carlson is so loathsome. yuck.
UberTag
Member
It's not like he's ever pretended NOT to be loathsome.
Loathsome individuals are a natural fit for Republicans at large or their right-wing mouthpieces.
And, in all fairness, getting grilled like this is a good training ground for any prospective DNC chair hopefuls.
benjipwns
Banned
That's what makes his new show so great:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-iOVjodkCDo
relentlessly abusing his stupid guests:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sAVLm3NngT8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-iOVjodkCDo
relentlessly abusing his stupid guests:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sAVLm3NngT8
Retromelon
Member
Now I'm going to get daily 'Tucker Carlson DESTROYS x' videos in my youtube suggesteds for clicking that, hooray
benjipwns
Banned
It's great though, it's how it became part of my routine along with videogamedunkey, Maoist Rebel News and Giant Bomb.
All of his guests are so unprepared for the simplest questions it's awesome.
Retromelon
Member
Those are quality channels benji, did you see the recent video where jason had a huge ice dildo with him in his thumbnail. This is not a joke he really did that
benjipwns
Banned
Oh yeah I did. He also got a tattoo of his logo: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RuR-1I8E_lw
edit: lol at me identifying songs off Burials in the background
edit: lol at me identifying songs off Burials in the background
TheWasTheJoke
Member
I think the 2020 candidate has to be someone relatively unknown who comes out of nowhere
All the prominent democrats absolutely suck. Booker, Schumer are all unviable not only because they're unconvincing corporate shills, but also by being tired up with Clinton
Incinerate it all and rebuild
All the prominent democrats absolutely suck. Booker, Schumer are all unviable not only because they're unconvincing corporate shills, but also by being tired up with Clinton
Incinerate it all and rebuild
benjipwns
Banned
Problem is you don't have the time to find a nobody. Remember, Trump didn't entirely come out of nowhere. He was in this race for a year. AND he had already done all the first steps back when he was flirting with it in 2011. (Then hoovered up people from the dying primary opponents.)
Plus he had 15+ years of modern celebrity attached. And could more than afford to ditch his "day job" to wear stupid hats.
Plus he had 15+ years of modern celebrity attached. And could more than afford to ditch his "day job" to wear stupid hats.
nature boy
Member
I like Biden, but 78 is too old to intensely campaign.
Since fuck experience, I pick Kander.
Since fuck experience, I pick Kander.
So what you are saying is... we are already dead.
Why would you want to give up a sweet day job of watching YouTube videos of Tucker Carlson and writing thousand word posts on PoliGAF about obscure US political
benjipwns
Banned
Uh, I'm running for Vice President.
I'll get paid to do that. And be a jerk about Senate rules.
ElectricThunder
Member
That Kucinich tweet is fairly surreal, even after he already fell into madness by taking that gig at Fox news for awhile there after he was out of office.
Gravel definitely did better to just wanderlust it up and admin a weed concern.
Gravel definitely did better to just wanderlust it up and admin a weed concern.
I don't disagree. But Bill Clinton is also a total piece of shit and a terrible person who chooses to associate with a lot of other human scum. There's at least a 50/50 chance that he's a rapist. And I know people like to make a joke about the Lewinski thing, but that really was shitty. She was nearly as young as his daughter, and he sought sex from a young intern he was in a strong position of authority over. That is absolutely not ok. I don't know if I would have gone so far as impeachment, but it was at least more sinister than "just a blowjob." Between that, his general slimy-ness regarding women, and the circumstantial evidence, I've tended to lean towards believing at least some of his accusers.
I'm not fond of Hillary, but I don't hold nearly the same level of animosity towards her because she seems like a much better person than Bill. Unfortunately her husband is attached to that political machine, and if there's any silver lining to this election, it's that Bill won't be back in the White House and hopefully the Clinton brand will be excised from the party and fade into irrelevancy.
WaffleTaco
Wants to outlaw technological innovation.
Really people don't think Kaine was charmastic? I mean everyone I talked to liked him quite a bit, especially compared to Hillary who they didn't. I mean it's anecdotal evidence obviously, but I really thought he was liked more. Although him being connected Hillary is pretty bad.
He's not charismatic. I don't think it's that he's unlikable. It's that he's not at all memorable.
I think when people hear him speak they have a generally positive to neutral impression, and then don't remember who he is ten minutes later. I think he'd be a decent or good president in office, but he does not strike me as a particularly strong campaigner.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Kaine couldn't carry the top of a ticket. He isn't a strong enough speaker to go head to head with Trump.
He lacks presence.
He lacks presence.
Got the Shakes
Member
You know this is going to eat at Trump. He'll also probably claim the the tv rating numbers are fake news.
"Inauguration of President Trump earned a 27.7 overnight rating across 7 networks, down -26% from President Obama's first inaugural (37.2)."
https://twitter.com/mulvihill79/status/822818837540126720
"Inauguration of President Trump earned a 27.7 overnight rating across 7 networks, down -26% from President Obama's first inaugural (37.2)."
https://twitter.com/mulvihill79/status/822818837540126720
He'd need to pick a young moderate or it'd be a Palin situation again.
Isn't that the point?
Yeah. He was a pretty good governor but nationally speaking, he's definitely Senator, VP material. Not a guy you want at the top of the ticket. I think he would have been perhaps the most neutral kind of VP in I don't even know how long, which would have been fine, given the contrast there was with Hillary.
Biden/Kander 2020
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Kander doesn't even have a Senate seat. Even VP for 2020 is just having a laugh. Way to ruin a promising career. Let it go.
For sure, him losing was a damn travesty. Good thing is that he's still extremely active for the democrats and around Missouri. He's made a lot of national television appearances and written some great op-eps for outlets like The Huffington Post since his loss. He's still super young and has that fire. He will find something to do and some way to help.
Also his name is out there now and anecdotally people seem to REALLY like him, even republicans. I see a governor run in 2020 and I know it's early but I see him having a great shot. Literally the first thing our new governor Greitens did was slash $170 million from higher education... People are already upset with him lol
Oh I wasn't serious and I'm with you guys completely. It is however a nice dream scenario.
benjipwns
Banned
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
Kander would be a great choice for the SoTU response
And really this is the first step to moving on. I feel like it's early 2005 and Democrats are just picking names out of a hat thinking someone will save them, completely lost in the dark. The only problem is, it's worse. The party is fucking dying.
Kander at best could maybe serve in the cabinet of a future Dem president, other than that I don't see him having much of a path since losing such a vital race.
benjipwns
Banned
And they had Hillary then. And Gore, Edwards, Daschle, even Kerry was talking about trying again.
Now people are actually talking about Biden? During aviator time?
Ted Kennedy said Kerry was still his guy in 2005! Then Obama came along and he was like lol jk bro
Honestly looking back Dems were damn lucky to have Obama. It's become increasingly clear to me that he has his own way of doing things that the party was too dumb or stubborn to pick up on and the Dem party itself is still very much a skeleton of what it was before they had a brief moment of brilliance in 06.
Obama should just take over the whole party. No more DWS-types vs. common sense.
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