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PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why

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K

kirblar

Member
whyamihere said:
It actually doesn't seem like you're where Box of Kittens is?

We don't know who our nominee is or what Trump's numbers are or, really, what we're running on, and there are a host of unknowns that mean that we actually have no idea what 2020 will look like and if we should invest in Iowa.

I know you don't like populism and maybe abandoning the Rust Belt to the "future of the party" is a nice stand in for that, but there are a multitude of combinations of EVs for 2020.

We actually could do a lot worse with WWC votes and lose Minnesota and New Hampshire and Maine, which is 17 more EVs we need to make up elsewhere. I'm a little scared that you seem almost giddy to turn your back on trying to even cut into the margins with these voters, something we need to do to win Georgia, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina!
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This is why I'm very pessimistic on this:
VendettaRed07 said:
Trade was a significant factor in Iowa swinging like it did.

Obama successfully positioned himself as an anti-trade candidate and McCain/Romney with their corporate business ties shipped jobs over seas.

Then Obama tried to push TPP, Hillary couldn't walk back her comments or her NAFTA ties, etc.
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To win these voters, we have to bullshit them on trade and sell them populist bullshit fantasies in order to tell them what they want to hear. As time goes on, this gets more and more difficult! And so, if they think "both parties are the same" on this issue, they're just going to vote on identity politics instead, which we can't win at!
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I'm not feeling any oppo today for some reason. Have we heard any hints toward some?
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
kirblar said:
This is why I'm very pessimistic on this:

To win these voters, we have to bullshit them on trade and sell them populist bullshit fantasies in order to tell them what they want to hear. As time goes on, this gets more and more difficult! And so, if they think "both parties are the same" on this issue, they're just going to vote on identity politics instead, which we can't win at!
Click to expand...

Do you also have Powerball numbers?
 
A

Allard

Member
Plinko said:
I'm not feeling any oppo today for some reason. Have we heard any hints toward some?
Click to expand...

Best drops come without preamble, but I would be fine with at least one day without the 'fix'. Then again I am loving the idea of every single day Trump is on his globe trotting trip to be filled with controversy just to see if he snaps.
 
K

kirblar

Member
Aaron Strife said:
I agree that states like Iowa/Ohio don't represent the future of the party, but we also need to be concerned with the present of the party. The point where North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia are reliably voting blue is still several cycles away. If we can still win some rust belt states in the meantime as a Plan B that's something worth pursuing, even if we count them as Tier 2 or 3 states.

If I were looking at the electoral math in 2020, here's how I'd prioritize the states (with all the knowledge that five months into 2017 has given me):

Tier 1 flips - Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin (even if these are trending red, they were extremely close and these three alone would have given us the presidency)
Tier 1 holds - Minnesota, New Hampshire, Nevada
Tier 2 flips - Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia
Tier 2 holds - Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico
Tier 3 - Iowa, Ohio, Texas
Click to expand...
To put this in gaming terms: I see states like Iowa and Ohio as "Win More" states. If we're winning them, we're almost assuredly already comfortably ahead elsewhere.
whyamihere said:
Do you also have Powerball numbers?
Click to expand...
Excuse me?
 
R

RustyNails

Member
qbsoMOQ.jpg
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
kirblar said:
Excuse me?
Click to expand...

You all seem extremely confident in your abilities to predict the exact strategy to take in 2020 given that the election is 1,260 days away, so I was also wondering if you could help me score a quick few mil on the lotto.

It is May 2017! Stop talking about what states to go after in 2020!
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
so how did Democrats manage to win the last 5/7 times going back to Dukakis, What held Iowa and Ohio longer compared to West Virginia with similar demographics? the dynamic of the two candidates?
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Well, all of the circumstances in all of these states are different.

West Virginia went Democratic in 8 of 10 elections between 1960 and 1996, the only exceptions being Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1984 (both elections in which the Democratic candidate won only one state+DC). They were one of six states that voted Carter in 1980 and one of ten to vote Dukakis in 1988. A big issue in WV has been the coal industry. Until WV accepts that coal jobs aren't coming back, Democratic presidential candidates will just have no chance there. It actually saw a huge swing to Trump despite Romney already winning the state by over 20 points.

Although much of Southern Ohio is similar to West Virginia, overall it is a far more industrialized and urban state, so the story there is a bit different.

One of the things that made Iowa competitive was traditional Democratic strength in Eastern Iowa. This was part of a general pattern in the Upper Midwest where (largely rural and white) counties along the Mississippi River supported Democrats.

Here's a map of the 2012 election, shaded by county. Note all those blue counties in Eastern Iowa, Southeastern Minnesota, Western Wisconsin, and Northwestern Illinois. Take a look at the 2016 map and you see most of them went red. This map here gives the 2012 to 2016 swings. In the case of Illinois all Trump's gains were canceled out by losses in the Chicago area (the state actually swung away from the Republicans overall). Minnesota saw a big red swing overall, but there were just enough votes in the Twin Cities to keep it blue this cycle. There weren't quite enough votes in Milwaukee and Madison to keep Wisconsin blue, but they did keep it competitive. Iowa, on the other hand, is the least urbanized of these states. If rural white voters in Eastern Iowa continue voting Republican, Iowa becomes a very tough state to compete in.
 
K

kirblar

Member
whyamihere said:
You all seem extremely confident in your abilities to predict the exact strategy to take in 2020 given that the election is 1,260 days away, so I was also wondering if you could help me score a quick few mil on the lotto.

It is May 2017! Stop talking about what states to go after in 2020!
Click to expand...
I'm extremely confident that economic changes are going to keep making people in the region very angry and upset, and that places like WV and assholes like Steve King are telling us what's to come, and it's not going to be getting better.

I'm not confident in an exact strategy! But I am confident that our strategy must reflect that we're seeing a mass realignment happen right now.

Edit: To follow up on Box's post, our strength in these areas was directly tied to organized labor. But it turns out it is hard to organize labor when there's no labor to organize! Thankfully for the Dems, unlike Labour, Organized Labor is a part of our coalition, not the defining trait of the party.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
kirblar said:
I'm extremely confident that economic changes are going to keep making people in the region very angry and upset, and that places like WV and assholes like Steve King are telling us what's to come, and it's not going to be getting better.

I'm not confident in an exact strategy! But I am confident that our strategy must reflect that we're seeing a mass realignment happen right now.

Edit: To follow up on Box's post, our strength in these areas was directly tied to organized labor. But it turns out it la hard to organize labor when there's no labor to organize! Thankfully for the Dems, unlike Labour, Organized Labor is a part of our coalition, not the defining trait of the party.
Click to expand...

I'm extremely confident in not being confident in anything about 2020 as of today, and I would suggest the same to you and everyone else in the thread.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Sean Hannity‏Verified account @seanhannity

IMPORTANT! Mediamatters is trying to silence me, get me fired, pressure my advertising on radio & TV. Liberal Fascism. I need your help!!
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The guy has lost his mind.
 
L

Lo-Volt

Member
RustyNails said:
qbsoMOQ.jpg
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I have never been so disgusted by our willingness to misuse and abuse the name of the dead for petty shit. Seth Rich was a man with potential stuck down over a robbery. Trayvon Martin and Mike Brown were children given the death sentence for the color of their skin. They are not here to defend themselves or explain themselves.

But here we are, using their names and misusing their memories to put forward absurd acts and ideas. "Seth Rich is a victim of a conspiracy and Hillary murdered him. Mike and Trayvon deserved what they got." It's horrifying and macabre to think that people we know could be abused this way, turned into haunting ghosts, because of their circumstances and the wretchedness of others.

Let them sleep.
 
E

Ernest

Banned
nature boy said:
Is Sean Hannity trying to get fired
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That would be sweet!

Fox's ratings are finally falling, as Fox has continued to paint itself into a corner. The diehards aren't watching because they don't want to hear about the daily Trump revelations, yet if they don't cover it enough more moderate viewers bail for CNN and others, as they have been these past few months. Add to that, this conspiracy nonsense will end up doing them more harm in the long run, as they/Hannity become the news instead.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
TestOfTide said:
I've been saying for months now that 2016 was the red Rural White Wave election. Look at Florida and Pennsylvania where Trump literally only won because he got the rural areas to completely outvote everywhere else.

I'm predicting that over time the suburban areas are going to start voting more and more like the urban areas. And at that point the only states that vote GOP are the ones where there are more rural voters than non-rural voters.
Click to expand...

Suburban areas are an interesting wildcard in that they show a wide spread. Some vote very red in contrast to the cities they surround, and others are quite blue. The recent trend has mostly been for these areas to move Democratic. Again looking at the map of 2012 to 2016 swings, suburban Milwaukee, which is the traditional GOP power base in Wisconsin, was one of the few parts of Wisconsin to move against Trump. They still voted Republican by large margins, but turning those areas purple would be a way to offset further losses in Western Wisconsin along the Mississippi and around the Iron Range in the northwest and ultimately stay competitive in the state. That may or may not happen, but as unlikely as it seems given current voting patterns, the Chicago suburbs used to vote like Milwaukee's. When they turned purple in the 1990s was when Illinois became a blue state, and now those suburbs are more blue than anything. Lake County voted for Bush over Dukakis by nearly 30 points. It voted for Clinton over Trump by more than 20 points.

You can also see those suburban shifts behind the states that are moving Democratic (note all those blue shifts around Atlanta). I don't think it will ever get to the point where Republicans only win states with more rural voters than urban/suburban, since there are only four states worth 18 electoral votes without a majority urbanized population, but these trends are worth keeping an eye on.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
ArkhamFantasy said:
Is it safe to say that a punch to the gut of Fox News is the equivalent of a punch to the gut of the GOP?
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Eh... Not really.

because you can get rid of the big wigs, but Fox News will just breed more idiots in the same cloth. They may hemorrhage some viewers for a bit, but they'll dredge up some conspiracy idiot out there to take his place.
 
A

Armaros

Member
The only sane reason for Hannity's meltdown is that he knows Fox wants to dump him after his contract ends, and thus is trying to get his golden parachute
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
ArkhamFantasy said:
Is it safe to say that a punch to the gut of Fox News is the equivalent of a punch to the gut of the GOP?
Click to expand...

Meh ... I feel like a large portion of Fox's fall also has to do with some of their base getting even more insane than they used to be. So they're moving to Breitbart and other places. Hannity leaving Fox would just mean he's going somewhere else to spew his shit.

I suppose their is some merit to the idea that forcing this insane bunch to the corners of the internet is a good thing. Let them wallow in their echo chamber of stupidity.

Wilsongt said:
Eh... Not really.

because you can get rid of the big wigs, but Fox News will just breed more idiots in the same cloth. They may hemorrhage some viewers for a bit, but they'll dredge up some conspiracy idiot out there to take his place.
Click to expand...

I've read plenty of online comments about Fox going liberal MSM due to the sons taking over. Their best move may be to moderate some as they shed the crazies to Breitbart and the like.
 
smokeymicpot

smokeymicpot

Beat EviLore at pool.
ArkhamFantasy said:
Is it safe to say that a punch to the gut of Fox News is the equivalent of a punch to the gut of the GOP?
Click to expand...

Yes if they some how can steer a little to the left it would be amazing. It would help so much. They don't focus on any of the big stories and try to spin away from it. Sadly they know their audience and won't change.
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
Armaros said:
The only sane reason for Hannity's meltdown is that he knows Fox wants to dump him after his contract ends, and thus is trying to get his golden parachute
Click to expand...
A golden parachute is usually only enough to cover the remainder of your contract or another year. For instance, Bill O'Reilly's gift basket was what he would have made next year. You make more money staying hired.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
I guess my position would be that current trends are important and tell us part of the 2020 picture, but they're just one piece of the puzzle. There are just too many unknowns for me to want to make definitive statements about what will happen in a particular election over three years in advance. It's also true that we don't know for sure yet what's a lasting trend and what may have been due to specific strengths and weaknesses of Clinton and Trump.

In a previous post I sort of started a sentence and then didn't finish it for whatever reason. My best guess for 2020 is that a big part of the strategy will be to try and win back WI/PA/MI while holding MN/NH. But, that's just a guess that's subject to revision as we get closer to 2020 and know the specific circumstances. There's no reason to decide right now what states will be "important," though I agree with the general point that we should spread resources more rather than visit three states a billion times.
 
S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
Y'all got any of that wapo-droppo?

let's not talk about hannity. Life's to short to think about anything having to do with him.
 
H

Hooligan69

Member
Bonen no Max'd said:
Trump will be reelected after the Democrats run Mondale in 2020, actually. We'll hold Minnesota though.
Click to expand...

This. I'm firmly expecting this, with surety.

The Bernie bros are still butthurt about the DNC, so they'll have a tantrum and vote Stein again, even if she isn't running, just to spite the DNC.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
Hooligan69 said:
This. I'm firmly expecting this, with surety.

The Bernie bros are still butthurt about the DNC, so they'll have a tantrum and vote Stein again, even if she isn't running, just to spite the DNC.
Click to expand...
Jackson Bros threw the election to Bush instead of falling behind Dukakis after throwing a fit at the convention smh
 
S

StopMakingSense

Member
One has to wonder if Trump revealing the existence of a deep source within ISIS has/will accelerate the execution of planned attacks. (in re: the latest British bombing and threat level escalation)
 
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