• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why

Status
Not open for further replies.
The public HATES the bill..

They are not reacting to traditional incentives here. Something else (their base) is warping the call here.
Yeah, but the more the public sees it the harder they hate it. They're not really responding well to traditional incentives, but they're also trying their damndest to hide this thing as long as possible prior to voting. There's probably a reason for that.

Edit:then let him change those rules. That takes time too.
 

aTTckr

Member
I could be wrong, but I believe for it to happen, he has to fire Rosenstein, then get someone else to fire him, either from the DoJ or a nominated replacement. He can't do it directly himself.

Firing Mueller would look like such an obvious admission of guilt that if Trump were determined to do so I don't think having to fire Rosenstein first presents any obstacle.
 
If we try to fillibuster something they care about, they'll kill it. But McConnell doesn't want to actually have to do it because the House is insane and will force votes on shit they don't want to touch.
There's nothing they don't want to touch. The House could reinstate slavery and McConnell would find an excuse to vote on it.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Do we have any evidence that additional Dem obstructionism would actually appreciably delay proceedings? Or is it wishful thinking?
 

Barzul

Member
It's just hard for me to see the GOP killing the legislative filibuster. It's the only weapon they have to obstruct as a minority party. Without it, Dems would probably find a way to force through some form of Universal healthcare and/or tuition free college. The precedent would be established, no matter how long it takes for the Democrats to retake power. It also makes it super easy to undo everything. The countries long term stability would be subject to the whims of partisan politics. We'd see a different tax code every 8 years or something like that.
 
Do we have any evidence that additional Dem obstructionism would actually appreciably delay proceedings? Or is it wishful thinking?

The closest parallel would be during the confirmation hearings when the Dems denied a quorum for Mnuchin and Price. The GOP changed the rules the next day and nothing changed. It would be the same situation here.
 
The Hill‏Verified account @thehill

Gingrich: Mueller hired "bad people" http://hill.cm/gpvkiUh

1qt986.jpg
 

kirblar

Member
The closest parallel would be during the confirmation hearings when the Dems denied a quorum for Mnuchin and Price. The GOP changed the rules the next day and nothing changed. It would be the same situation here.
Yup. Like, people don't get just how arbitrary house/senate rules are. They're not spelled out in the constitution.

The myth on the left that the GOP has power only because the Dems let them have it (because people can't possibly be short-sighted, selfish and stupid as a whole) is such a huge problem.
 
This twitter thread by Jeff Stein and Jon Favreau sort of gets into it: https://twitter.com/jstein_vox/status/874297303502344192

There seems to be some legitimate confusion on what would work/what won't on the part of the Dems in the Senate. But also, the Russia thing is so stupid if that's actually true.

Yup. Like, people don't get just how arbitrary house/senate rules are. They're not spelled out in the constitution.

The myth on the left that the GOP has power only because the Dems let them have it (because people can't possibly be short-sighted, selfish and stupid as a whole) is such a huge problem.

Except in that example, people actually liked that the theater that Dems were fighting for them. Which is necessary!
 
Yup. Like, people don't get just how arbitrary house/senate rules are. They're not spelled out in the constitution.

The myth on the left that the GOP has power only because the Dems let them have it (because people can't possibly be short-sighted, selfish and stupid as a whole) is such a huge problem.

See people mourning the loss of checks and balances when Republicans eliminated the filibuster for Supreme Court nominees, or the idea that they would reinstate the filibuster right before the next Congress when they lose the Senate as though they have the power to dictate rules to a future Congress.
 

Teggy

Member
WTF, did you hear that the guy who was released from NK has been in a coma for a year?

The Warmbiers were told that he contracted botulism soon after his trial and was given a sleeping pill, from which he never woke up.
 

Doc Holliday

SPOILER: Columbus finds America
I'm impressed by Lindsey Graham's questioning right now. The dude can be really smart at times, I wish he wasn't such an asshole lol
 
or the idea that they would reinstate the filibuster right before the next Congress when they lose the Senate as though they have the power to dictate rules to a future Congress.
Shit, I never thought about this! DOOOOOOMED!

(I could see the Senate GOP trying to do that to earn brownie points with a braindead media, and forcing Democrats to scrap the filibuster so they can hem and haw about partisan hackery while John McCain calls them all stupid idiots)

Unrelated, PPP is trying to make the case that Arizona's gubernatorial election could be a tossup. A new poll has one Democratic candidate up 2 against R governor Dave Ducey, another one down two.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ppp-d-garcia-27823
 
I want results. Not theatre.

Cool. You also have to show people that there's a reason they're voting for you and that you're fighting for them, even if the outcome is ultimately the same. You also are also to underscore the bad aspects of what the GOP is doing which makes the bill even more of an albatross going into 2018.
 

Blader

Member
Then maybe people should prod the democrats to do something about it, instead of whining on a forum?

Either way it is kind of hard to fight against something that doesn't even exist in the public sphere. You can't criticize a bill that does not exist.

DING DING

There is no bill to attack yet. The whole thing is being done behind closed doors, and quickly. One GOP aide said as much in Axios yesterday: they're no dummies. When the House bill went public early and got hit with the CBO score, it was easy for Dems, skittish Rs, and the media to pounce. There is nothing public about this bill yet -- no text, no CBO score, and many Republicans don't even want to talk about it -- so it's harder for lines of attack to gain traction.

Capito, Portman, and Heller already indicated a week or two ago they were positive on AHCA and its plans for Medicaid. The outcome was clinched then.

The AHCA has a 24 percent approval rating nationwide, including less than half of Republicans. Public pressure and shame are clearly not going to work here.

Do we have any evidence that additional Dem obstructionism would actually appreciably delay proceedings? Or is it wishful thinking?

We actually have at least two examples from just the last couple months where Dem obstructionism was quickly nullified by Senate Rs changing the rules.
 
Cool. You also have to show people that there's a reason they're voting for you and that you're fighting for them, even if the outcome is ultimately the same. You also are also to underscore the bad aspects of what the GOP is doing which makes the bill even more of an albatross going into 2018.
I think nothing demonstrates this better than Corbyn's campaign. Dude started out wildly unpopular but rallied thanks to a great campaign and party platform. Were some of his promises unfeasible? Absolutely. But I think part of the problem with Hillary's campaign was that many of her proposals were tailor-made for Congressional compromise and stretching the extent of her executive power - great for actually enacting them into law, hard to rally the troops around.

Even a month ago I never thought I'd say this but we need to be more like Corbyn.
 

kirblar

Member
Cool. You also have to show people that there's a reason they're voting for you and that you're fighting for them, even if the outcome is ultimately the same. You also are also to underscore the bad aspects of what the GOP is doing which makes the bill even more of an albatross going into 2018.
You can do that in plenty of ways (see: Gillibrand's strategic voting) that aren't ineffectual time wasters that result in McConnell waving a magic wand and ignoring you anyway.
I think nothing demonstrates this better than Corbyn's campaign. Dude started out wildly unpopular but rallied thanks to a great campaign and party platform. Were some of his promises unfeasible? Absolutely. But I think part of the problem with Hillary's campaign was that many of her proposals were tailor-made for Congressional compromise and stretching the extent of her executive power - great for actually enacting them into law, hard to rally the troops around.

Even a month ago I never thought I'd say this but we need to be more like Corbyn.
I mean, the dark takeaway from polling trends and American history is that you're only playing on the margins. The Dems have the winds at their back because it's an RRR and this is what happens in these situations.
 

dramatis

Member
Cool. You also have to show people that there's a reason they're voting for you and that you're fighting for them, even if the outcome is ultimately the same. You also are also to underscore the bad aspects of what the GOP is doing which makes the bill even more of an albatross going into 2018.
There's been the general idea of workhorses and showhorses. While there's a benefit in raising the national profile of select 'showhorses', maybe it's more like people are only interested in visuals and theater and not in the background maneuvering which is no less essential to the process.

If that's the case, are we supposed to have a rotating cast of Democrats who are out there doing press instead of the same stable of showhorses?


Edit: I'm thinking back on when Weiner was fire and not on fire, but I'm not sure that would benefit on the long run.
 

PBY

Banned
Cool. You also have to show people that there's a reason they're voting for you and that you're fighting for them, even if the outcome is ultimately the same. You also are also to underscore the bad aspects of what the GOP is doing which makes the bill even more of an albatross going into 2018.
This. You fight like hell either way, bc at the very least it helps message why the GOP plan sucks.
 
This desperation is unbelievable.

But doesn't the whole thing have to be revealed eventually? What about the CBO score? Certainly this thing has to become public for some time here so this thing can be stalled past the recess.
 
I'm all for people calling their Senators.

I'm all for Democrats doing whatever they can to shine a light on what's going on with this bill.

I just wish the left would take 1/10th of the effort they put into blaming every fucking thing on Democrats and put it into fighting Republicans.
 

Blader

Member
This desperation is unbelievable.

But doesn't the whole thing have to be revealed eventually? What about the CBO score? Certainly this thing has to become public for some time here so this thing can be stalled past the recess.

IIRC, Senate Rs are on track to finish the writing the bill this week and then submit it to CBO. CBO will then take away about two weeks to score it, leaving McConnell just a few days in between the CBO score and the July 4th recess to hold the floor vote.
 

numble

Member
They could have blocked the continuing resolution budget bill which would have shut down the government and the only way the GOP could pass it would be to waste one of the 2 reconciliation bills they had this year. The GOP was quite smart in giving the Democrats what they wanted for a temporary budget bill (that is what a CR essentially is), which was a "victory" for the Democrats that disappeared from the news cycle fairly quickly.
 
IIRC, Senate Rs are on track to finish the writing the bill this week and then submit it to CBO. CBO will then take away about two weeks to score it, leaving McConnell just a few days in between the CBO score and the July 4th recess to hold the floor vote.

Does the bill become public once the CBO scores it?
 

kirblar

Member
Rosenstein just said he's the only one who can fire Mueller.
Yup. To fire Trump, Trump has to fire Rosenstein, then get either a DoJ underling to fire him or get a replacement appointed who will do it.

This is not as easy as it sounds.
This is known, but Trump can fire Rosenstein and keep firing people until he finds someone who WILL fire Mueller.
Trump's admin has not appointed many people. This is likely going to be much harder and uglier than it looks if they choose to do it.
 
I'm all for people calling their Senators.

I'm all for Democrats doing whatever they can to shine a light on what's going on with this bill.

I just wish the left would take 1/10th of the effort they put into blaming every fucking thing on Democrats and put it into fighting Republicans.

Well, yes, that'd be nice.
 

Blader

Member
They could have blocked the continuing resolution budget bill which would have shut down the government and the only way the GOP could pass it would be to waste one of the 2 reconciliation bills they had this year. The GOP was quite smart in giving the Democrats what they wanted for a temporary budget bill (that is what a CR essentially is), which was a "victory" for the Democrats that disappeared from the news cycle fairly quickly.

Not only do I think that's a pretty ridiculous read (all of this 5-dimensional chess speculation is never not complete bullshit) but it kind of undermines the point about Dem obstruction to finagle wins, since clearly these are just "victories" that dissipate in short order anyway!

Do you think Dems should refuse to vote for a debt ceiling lift?

Does the bill become public once the CBO scores it?

I'm not totally sure if the CBO report then means the entire text of the bill is released, but if nothing else, the biggest points -- coverage numbers and costs -- will be made public.

kirblar said:
Trump's admin has not appointed many people. This is likely going to be much harder and uglier than it looks if they choose to do it.

yeah, read about this on lawfare earlier today, but there are only two other appointed people at DOJ under Rosenstein. If both of those were to resign/refuse to fire Mueller, it'd be a total clusterfuck. Though one of those two is Dana Boente, who would likely be the Robert Bork in this case.
 

Emerson

May contain jokes =>
This is known, but Trump can fire Rosenstein and keep firing people until he finds someone who WILL fire Mueller.

This was my understanding as well, but I've seen a lot of speculation the last two days about Trump being able to do it another way. Just clarification that according to the DAG this isn't true.
 
I'm all for people calling their Senators.

I'm all for Democrats doing whatever they can to shine a light on what's going on with this bill.

I just wish the left would take 1/10th of the effort they put into blaming every fucking thing on Democrats and put it into fighting Republicans.

I know you mean well but this is silly. Of course the left hates the Republicans much more than the Democrats. The reason they fight the Democrats is because they want to remake the party in their image. Given the catastrophic losses the party has suffered since Obama took office, the establishment wisdom doesn't appear to be serving people all that well. The party is about as weak as its ever been right now, which is why you're seeing a left insurgency.
 
You can do that in plenty of ways (see: Gillibrand's strategic voting) that aren't ineffectual time wasters that result in McConnell waving a magic wand and ignoring you anyway.

Yeah, no, this is a bad strategy. You need to show people you're doing everything to fight for them, even if you ultimately lose. And especially don't say that you're not doing everything you can to delay the bill because of th Russia investigation.
 

numble

Member
Not only do I think that's a pretty ridiculous read (all of this 5-dimensional chess speculation is never not complete bullshit) but it kind of undermines the point about Dem obstruction to finagle wins, since clearly these are just "victories" that dissipate in short order anyway!

Do you think Dems should refuse to vote for a debt ceiling lift?

Even Pelosi and Hoyer threatened a shutdown on the budget regarding AHCA but backed down later. It isn't a ridiculous read.

Pelosi also echoed a statement made by House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, D-Md., who said that if Republicans bring up a vote on the AHCA this week, she will also oppose a short-term continuing resolution.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/p...es-if-obamacare-repeal-passes/article/2621457
 

kirblar

Member
Yeah, no, this is a bad strategy. You need to show people you're doing everything to fight for them, even if you ultimately lose. And especially don't say that you're not doing everything you can to delay the bill because of th Russia investigation.
Somehow I doubt most voters care about arcane procedural moves that will amount to effectively nothing. (see: Mnuchin/Price.) This is not about "showing" people, this is about a large number of people being absolutely delusional about the fact that they don't have power. You should not be taking every opportunity possible to do political theatre, otherwise, it becomes impossible to take you seriously!

I'm not saying it's not important or shouldn't be done. This instance in particular is just a very bad idea.

OTOH, Pelosi/Hoyer's move w/ the budget? That's a good one because they actually have leverage due to the GOP's internal fractures.
 

Blader

Member
Even Pelosi and Hoyer threatened a shutdown on the budget regarding AHCA but backed down later. It isn't a ridiculous read.


http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/p...es-if-obamacare-repeal-passes/article/2621457

That the GOP "allowed" Dems to claim a victory on the CR is a ridiculous read because it produced an embarrassing news cycle for them and personally pissed off Trump.

Seriously though: do you think Dems should refuse to lift the debt ceiling without getting concessions on healthcare, budget, etc. first?
 
I mean, the dark takeaway from polling trends and American history is that you're only playing on the margins. The Dems have the winds at their back because it's an RRR and this is what happens in these situations.
Sure, but when you're talking about an election that was lost by 70,000 votes spread across the Midwest, "playing the margins" is the difference between President Trump and President Clinton.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom