I probably would have said the same thing in April when there was a lot of smoke around Trump's "satellites" but nothing overt coming from Trump directly.
But after Trump fired Comey and asked multiple intelligence directors to "lay-off" the Michael Flynn investigation, literally committing obstruction of justice, I'm now of the belief there is some real fire somewhere in all the smoke. The common adage is that "the coverup is bigger than the crime". Yes that adage is a bit cliche but the reason prosecutors/investigators go aggressively after the coverup is because the vast majority of people don't engage in a coverup if there was no crime. There are many instances too where the crime itself may be difficult to investigate and come to a clear conclusion but the coverup can be revealing because people often get sloppy and behave erratically over time when they have something to hide.
Someone is definitely going down from Trump's campaign. The question will be how close does it touch Trump directly. Trump might still be able to escape the scandal if the troubles stay exclusively to Michael Flynn and Paul Manafort, and none the business dealings touch Trump's interests whatsoever. Trump might be able to escape by throwing them under the bus. But the more Trump talks and tries to intimidate the prosecutors and officials running the investigation, the more he drags himself into whatever sweeping net they're going to use to catch wrong-doings from his administration and campaign.